Reputation and the Flow of Information in Repeated Games

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1697-1723
Author(s):  
Eduardo Faingold
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Repeated Games ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Equilibrium Payoff ◽  
Monitoring Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Reputation Effects ◽  
Public Monitoring ◽  
Flow Of Information

Equilibrium payoff bounds from reputation effects are derived for repeated games with imperfect public monitoring in which a long‐run player interacts frequently with a population of short‐run players and the monitoring technology scales with the length of the period of interaction. The bounds depend on the monitoring technology through the flow of information, a measure of signal informativeness per unit of time based on relative entropy. Examples are shown where, under complete information, the set of equilibrium payoffs of the long‐run player converges, as the period length tends to zero, to the set of static equilibrium payoffs, whereas when the game is perturbed by a small ex ante probability on commitment types, reputation effects remain powerful in the high‐frequency limit.

scholarly journals Repeated Games with Long-Run and Short-Run Players

1990 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew Fudenberg ◽  
David M. Kreps ◽  
Eric S. Maskin
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Games ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Are the Indian Ragi Markets Integrated?

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bidirectional Flow ◽  
Flow Of Information

The Indian consumers and policymakers recognized finger millet (Ragi) increasingly as a nutritious staple. Karnataka, Uttrakhand, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are the major ragi producing States contributing 90 percent of the Indian Ragi production. Various initiatives in recent years have aimed at promoting agricultural market integration. The present study aimed at testing the integration across the ragi markets in Tamil Nadu. The ADF test was used to assess the stationarity, Johansen cointegration, and the VECM model was used to analyze the long-term cointegration among the markets. Granger causality was used to assess the direction of the flow of information across markets. All the price series were first difference stationary. There existed two cointegration equations depicting the long-term integration across the markets. In the majority of the selected markets, a bidirectional flow of information was observed. Chinthamani and Tumkur markets error correction coefficients were significant, indicating that they will return to equilibrium in the short run by making corrections. Chinthamnai price influenced the Tumkur, Hosur, and Denkanikottai price at one month lag. The Tumkur price was influenced by its one-month lag and Hosur and Vellore one-month lag price. Tumkur and Vellore influence Hosur price by one month lag. The analysis found that Indian ragi markets were integrated in the long run.

scholarly journals The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Behavioral Interventions: Experimental Evidence from Energy Conservation

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3003-3037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hunt Allcott ◽  
Todd Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Social Comparison ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Behavioral Interventions ◽  
Repeated Treatment ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Over Time

We document three remarkable features of the Opower program, in which social comparison-based home energy reports are repeatedly mailed to more than six million households nationwide. First, initial reports cause high-frequency “action and backsliding,” but these cycles attenuate over time. Second, if reports are discontinued after two years, effects are relatively persistent, decaying at 10–20 percent per year. Third, consumers are slow to habituate: they continue to respond to repeated treatment even after two years. We show that the previous conservative assumptions about post-intervention persistence had dramatically understated cost effectiveness and illustrate how empirical estimates can optimize program design.(JEL D12, D83, L94, Q41)

scholarly journals A complete folk theorem for finitely repeated games

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1129-1142
Author(s):  
Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Games ◽  
Pure Strategy ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Repeated Game ◽  
Complete Characterization ◽  
Folk Theorem ◽  
Equilibrium Payoff ◽  
Perfect Monitoring ◽  
Special Case

AbstractThis paper analyzes the set of pure strategy subgame perfect Nash equilibria of any finitely repeated game with complete information and perfect monitoring. The main result is a complete characterization of the limit set, as the time horizon increases, of the set of pure strategy subgame perfect Nash equilibrium payoff vectors of the finitely repeated game. This model includes the special case of observable mixed strategies.

Trading volume and serial correlation in crude oil futures returns

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150016
Author(s):  
Hua Wang ◽  
Weige Huang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
The Relationship

Due to increasing speculation, crude oil futures are now becoming one of the highest traded commodities. This paper studies the relationship between trading volume and serial correlation in crude oil futures returns using high frequency data. We find that volume can positively predict the serial correlation in the short run (within an hour) but negatively predict the serial correlation in the midterm. The trading volume is not able to consistently predict serial correlation in the long run (more than a day). The results from our empirical studies are robust to a variety of controls and our study gives a new insight in the relation between volume and serial correlation of crude oil futures returns.

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

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