scholarly journals Direct Survival Analysis: a new stock assessment method

2007 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Ferrandis ◽  
Pilar Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method

scholarly journals An optimized catch-only assessment method for data poor fisheries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
André E Punt ◽  
Anthony D. M. Smith ◽  
Yimin Ye ◽  
Malcolm Haddon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Rate Maximum ◽  
Stock Depletion ◽  
Catch Statistics

Catch statistics are perhaps the most commonly collected data and are widely available for many fisheries. However, it is currently difficult to provide scientific advice for management purposes using only catch data. This article presents a catch-only method for stock assessment of data-poor fisheries. It uses time series of catches and two priors, one for the intrinsic population growth rate derived from life history parameters, and another for stock depletion based on catch trends. The method applies an optimization algorithm to search the potential parameter space. All computations are model or equation based rather than using predefined rules. The utility of this method is demonstrated by applying it to 13 stocks in Australia that are assessed using Stock Synthesis—an assessment package that can make use of a variety of data sources. The estimated parameters, including carrying capacity, intrinsic population growth rate, maximum sustainable yield, and depletion from the catch-only method are broadly comparable with those from the full assessments. The circumstances in which the method may perform poorly, such as longer-term changes in productivity and episodic recruitment, are highlighted.

scholarly journals Time-varying natural mortality in fisheries stock assessment models: identifying a default approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelli F. Johnson ◽  
Cole C. Monnahan ◽  
Carey R. McGilliard ◽  
Katyana A. Vert-pre ◽  
Sean C. Anderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Total Allowable Catch ◽  
Robust Approach ◽  
Structured Population Models ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract A typical assumption used in most fishery stock assessments is that natural mortality (M) is constant across time and age. However, M is rarely constant in reality as a result of the combined impacts of exploitation history, predation, environmental factors, and physiological trade-offs. Misspecification or poor estimation of M can lead to bias in quantities estimated using stock assessment methods, potentially resulting in biased estimates of fishery reference points and catch limits, with the magnitude of bias being influenced by life history and trends in fishing mortality. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the ability of statistical age-structured population models to estimate spawning-stock biomass, fishing mortality, and total allowable catch when the true M was age-invariant, but time-varying. Configurations of the stock assessment method, implemented in Stock Synthesis, included a single age- and time-invariant M parameter, specified at one of the three levels (high, medium, and low) or an estimated M. The min–max (i.e. most robust) approach to specifying M when it is thought to vary across time was to estimate M. The least robust approach for most scenarios examined was to fix M at a high value, suggesting that the consequences of misspecifying M are asymmetric.

Performance of a fisheries catch-at-age model (Stock Synthesis) in data-limited situations

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantell R. Wetzel ◽  
André E. Punt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Composition Data ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Age Model ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

Limited data are a common challenge posed to fisheries stock assessment. A simulation framework was applied to examine the impact of limited data and data type on the performance of a widely used catch-at-age stock-assessment method (Stock Synthesis). The estimation method provided negatively biased estimates of current spawning-stock biomass (SSB) relative to the unfished level (final depletion) when only recent survey indices were available. Estimation of quantities of management interest (unfished SSB, virgin recruitment, target fishing mortality and final depletion) improved substantially even when only minimal-length-composition data from the survey were available. However, the estimates of some quantities (final depletion and unfished SSB) remained biased (either positively or negatively) even in the scenarios with the most data (length compositions, age compositions and survey indices). The probability of overestimating yield at the target SSB relative to the true such yield was ~50%, a risk-neutral result, for all the scenarios that included length-composition data. Our results highlight the importance of length-composition data for the performance of an age-structured assessment model, and are encouraging for the assessment of data-limited stocks.

Separating recruitment and mortality time lags for a delay-difference production model

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilius A. Aalto ◽  
E.J. Dick ◽  
Alec D. MacCall
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Production Models ◽  
Pacific Rockfish

Many fishery production models implicitly incorporate a single time lag for both recruitment and mortality despite the fact that in populations of breeding adults, deaths occur yearly while the entry of new adults comes from juveniles born potentially many years prior to adulthood. Models that do not account for this difference in timing will overestimate abundance for a decreasing stock and underestimate increases during a recovery period. We investigated the effect of incorporating unequal recruitment and mortality time lags into depletion-based stock reduction analysis (DB-SRA), a stock assessment method for data-poor species. Using both simulated data and catch series of Pacific rockfish (Sebastes spp.), we found that for declining stocks with no mortality delay and a recruitment time lag equal to age-at-maturity, estimated overfishing limits were up to 40% lower than those from the model with both time lags equal to age-at-maturity. Deviation between the two models’ predictions increases with age-at-maturity and natural mortality rate, suggesting that time lag separation is most important for long-lived species. We propose a correction factor for net production models that eliminates stock overestimation due to implicitly equal time lags.

Decrease in size at maturity of female American lobsters Homarus americanus (H. Milne Edwards, 1837) (Decapoda: Astacidea: Nephropidae) over a 50-year period in Maine, USA

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesica D Waller ◽  
Kathleen M Reardon ◽  
Sarah E Caron ◽  
Henry M Masters ◽  
Erin L Summers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Homarus Americanus ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Cement Gland ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Size At Maturity ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Bank Stock

ABSTRACTThe size at which female American lobsters Homarus americanus (H. Milne Edwards, 1837) reach maturity was determined for females collected from inshore (< 3 nautical miles, or 5.5 km) Boothbay Harbor (BBH), Maine, USA in 2018. A total of 272 females were collected during a three-week period in the spring and each female was assigned a maturity status (immature or mature) based on ovarian staging. These determinations were then compared to two similar female-maturity studies undertaken in BBH by the Maine Department of Marine Resources over the last 50 years. The comparison revealed that the length at which 50% of females reach maturity has decreased by 5 mm over the last 25 years and a significant difference between maturity ogives generated over time in BBH. Cement-gland stage was also recorded for all females and further analysis revealed no significant difference between maturity ogives generated using ovarian and cement-gland staging. Results indicate that cement-gland staging is an effective maturity assessment method in female lobsters from this region. Because there is a well-documented relationship between temperature and size at maturity in crustaceans, we also examined changes in sea-surface temperature during this period in BBH. We found that the region has warmed significantly over this period of time with extreme high temperatures occurring more frequently during the last 25 years. Our results can be used to update key parameters in the stock-assessment model related to growth and egg production in the Gulf of Maine/George’s Bank stock. These findings can also be used to inform future management decisions related to the carapace length of harvested lobsters and the preservation of mature females.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Restocking Practice and Demographic Stock Assessment Methods for Cryptic Juvenile European Eel in Upland Rivers

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Billy Nzau Matondo ◽  
Jean-Philippe Benitez ◽  
Arnaud Dierckx ◽  
Xavier Rollin ◽  
Michaël Ovidio
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Release Site ◽  
Anguilla Anguilla ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
European Eel ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Glass Eel ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

Restocking of the critically endangered European eel Anguilla anguilla is widespread, but it is rarely scientifically evaluated. Methods used to assess its associated performance by estimating the survival rate and implement restocking for maximum recruitment in rivers have not yet been investigated. Based on two glass eel restocking events using a single release site/point and multiple sites per river performed in upland rivers (>340 km from the North Sea), the recruitment success of stocked eels was scientifically evaluated during a 3-year study using multiple capture-mark-recapture methods and mobile telemetry. We compared the observed data with the data estimated from the Telemetry, De Lury and Jolly-Seber stock assessment methods. For recruitment data, Telemetry was very close to Jolly-Seber, an appropriate stock assessment method for open populations. Using the best model of Jolly-Seber, survival probability was higher (>95%) in both restocking practices, but recruitment yields were higher and densities of stocked eels were lower in multiple sites compared to a single site. Our results suggest that Telemetry can help to rapidly assess cryptic juvenile eel stocks with good accuracy under a limited number of capture-mark-recapture sessions. Artificial dispersal of glass eels on several productive habitats/sites per river appears to be the better-suited practice for restocking.

scholarly journals Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework: an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 1653-1670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Félix Massiot-Granier ◽  
Etienne Prévost ◽  
Gérald Chaput ◽  
Ted Potter ◽  
Gordon Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Atlantic Salmon ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Marine Survival

Abstract We developed a hierarchical Bayesian integrated life cycle model for Atlantic salmon that improves on the stock assessment approach currently used by ICES and provides some interesting insights about the population dynamics of a stock assemblage. The model is applied to the salmon stocks in eastern Scotland. It assimilates a 40-year (1971–2010) time-series of data compiled by ICES, including the catches in the distant water fisheries at Faroes and West Greenland and estimates of returning fish abundance. Our model offers major improvements in terms of statistical methodology for A. salmon stock assessment. Uncertainty about inferences is readily quantified in the form of Bayesian posterior distributions for parameters and abundance at all life stages, and the model could be adapted to provide projections based on the uncertainty derived from the estimation phase. The approach offers flexibility to improve the ecological realism of the model. It allows the introduction of density dependence in the egg-to-smolt transition, which is not considered in the current ICES assessment method. The results show that this modifies the inferences on the temporal dynamics of the post-smolt marine survival. In particular, the overall decrease in the marine survival between 1971 and 2010 and the sharp decline around 1988–1990 are dampened when density dependence is considered. The return rates of smolts as two-sea-winter (2SW) fish has declined in a higher proportion than return rates as one-sea-winter (1SW) fish. Our results indicate that this can be explained either by an increase in the proportion maturing as 1SW fish or by an increase in the mortality rate at sea of 2SW fish, but the data used in our analyses do not allow the likelihood of these two hypotheses to be gauged.

A Length-Based Stock Assessment Method Utilizing a Generalized Delay-Difference Model

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 422-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Fournier ◽  
Ian J. Doonan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Length Distribution ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Fish Population ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Difference Methods ◽  
Stock Depletion ◽  
Delay Difference

We present a length-based stock assessment method based on a generalization of the delay-difference methods of Deriso. Data inputs to the model include the estimated weight of the catch, the estimated fishing effort, the estimated mean weight of the catch, and the estimated central moments of the length distribution of the catch. The model's performance is demonstrated by applying it to data from a simulated exploited fish population exhibiting biomass-dependent catchability which would cause conventional catch–effort models to seriously underestimate the extent of stock depletion. The model was generally able to detect the presence of the biomass-dependent catchability and to correctly estimate the optimal level of fishing effort.

Evaluation of alternative modelling approaches to account for spatial effects due to age-based movement

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (11) ◽  
pp. 1832-1844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui-Hua Lee ◽  
Kevin R. Piner ◽  
Mark N. Maunder ◽  
Ian G. Taylor ◽  
Richard D. Methot
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Error Modeling ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Spatial Effects

Spatial patterns due to age-specific movement have been a source of unmodelled process error. Modeling movement in spatially explicit stock assessments is feasible, but hampered by a paucity of data from appropriate tagging studies. This study uses simulation analyses to evaluate alternative model structures that either explicitly or implicitly account for the process of time-varying age-based movement in a population dynamics model. We simulated synthetic populations using a two-area stochastic population dynamics operating model. Simulated data were fit in seven different estimation models. Only the model that includes the correct spatial dynamic results in unbiased and precise estimates of derived and management quantities. In a single-area assessment model, using the fleets-as-area (FAA) approach may be the second best option to estimate both length-based and time-varying age-based selectivity to implicitly account for the contact selectivity and annual availability. An FAA approach adds additional observation error performed nearly as well. Future research could evaluate which stock assessment method is robust to uncertainty in movement and is more appropriate for achieving intended management objectives.

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