Caguan's and Havana's Peace Talks

2016 ◽  
pp. 471-508
Author(s):  
Felipe Zarama
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The Government

Different to previous attempts, negotiations currently under way in Havana between the Government and FARC, since 2012, were preceded by a decline in both parties' contentious tactics. This chapter seeks to analyze the relation between the conflict cycle and the start of a peace process, through the Colombian experience, and Dean Pruitt and Sun Lee Kim's perceived stalemate concept. It is argued that Havana dialogues are likely to be successful on the grounds that it seems that both parties share a mutual perception of stalemate. Finally, it is suggested that the context in which dialogues arose may also have an impact in an eventual DDR process.

Frozen Negotiations: The Peace Process in Chiapas

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raúúl Beníítez Manaut ◽  
Andrew Selee ◽  
Cynthia J. Arnson
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Democratic Society ◽  
The Political ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
Better Than

Mexico's democratic transition has helped reduce, if not eliminate, the threat of renewed armed conflict in Chiapas. However, absent more active measures from the government and the Ejéército Zapatista de Liberacióón Nacional (EZLN) to seek a permanent peace agreement and come to terms with the legacies of the past, the conflict will linger on in an unstable déétente, which we term ““armed peace.”” While this situation is far better than the open hostilities of the past, it also belies the promise of a fully democratic society in which all citizens are equally included in the political process. La transicióón democráática en Mééxico ha contribuido a reducir, si no eliminar, la posibilidad de que el conflicto armado en Chiapas se reanude. Sin embargo, sin esfuerzos mas activos por parte del gobierno y del Ejéército Zapatista de Liberacióón Nacional (EZLN) para buscar un acuerdo de paz permanente y saldar cuentas con el pasado, el conflicto permaneceráá en un estado inestable que llamamos ““paz armada””. Aunque esta situacióón es mucho mejor que las tensiones y agresiones del pasado, no cumple los requisitos de una sociedad plenamente democráática en que todos los ciudadanos participan en condiciones de igualdad en el proceso políítico.

scholarly journals The Influence of Rational Dimension in the GPH-MILF Peace Process

2018 ◽  
pp. 145-152 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Community Involvement ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Strategic Interactions ◽  
Actor Model ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rational Factor ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Shed Light

Resolution of the so-called “Bangsamoro Question” rests at the heart of the peace process between the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Southern Philippines, also known as the Bangsamoro homeland. Inspired by Allison and Zelikow’s conceptualization of Rational Actor Model (RAM), this paper analyzed how rational factor contributed to the conclusion of the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (CAB) in 2014 and eventually enshrined into the Philippine Constitution through the approval of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) on July 27, 2018. This paper argued that the success of the GPH-MILF peace process does not only depend on the sincerity of the administrations of both then President Aquino III and current President Duterte, international support or commitment, pressure from civil societies and community involvement as what many commentators provided. As shown in this paper, the rational factor and its dimension significantly affected actors’ strategic interactions and the GPH-MILF peace process per se. The findings offered a new perspective for conflict-resolution and shed light on how rational dimension impacted both actors’ strategic interactions, which led to the conclusion of the GPH-MILF peace agreement. This clearly indicated that rational dimension greatly influenced GPH and MILF’s strategic interactions and thereby took flexible attitudes to resolve outstanding issues between them which consequently led to the signing of the CAB and ultimately the ratification of the BOL in 2018.

Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Rural protests could quickly snowball in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Tens of thousands of farmers and indigenous people have taken part in demonstrations since May 30 in protest at the government's economic policies. At least three people are reported to have been killed and some 200 injured in clashes with police. The protesters claim that promises made following similar protests in 2013 have not been honoured and that the government's free trade policies harm Colombian workers. Impacts While protests are unlikely to threaten the government or the peace process, they could complicate and draw out talks. In guerrilla-controlled areas, the government will strive to show it is capable of providing order and prosperity. Colombian protests will have no direct impact on TPP talks but may be an indicator of trouble ahead in countries that are party to the deal.

Ukraine talks will resume with glacially slow progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the call, signalling a determination to revive the four-party 'Normandy format' talks which had ground to a halt. Kyiv lodged a formal protest with the UN on July 21 at what it called an "intensification of Russia's aggressive actions", following an upsurge in clashes with rebel forces that left nine Ukrainian soldiers dead. Impacts Kyiv's caution on making disadvantageous concessions exposes it to external pressure to contribute more to the peace process. If the government has to make concessions on the conflict, political push-back could break up the ruling bloc and force early elections. Lack of progress in resolving the conflict will preserve but not strengthen sanctions against Russia.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

scholarly journals The Role of Land Conflict and Land Conflict Resolution in a Peace Process: Mozambique's Return to Agriculture

Refuge ◽  
1997 ◽  
pp. 28-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon D. Unruh
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Land Conflict ◽  
Land Access ◽  
The Government

The massive return and reintegration of refugees and displaced persons in Mozambique (the largest in the histoy of Africa) has pushed land tenure issues to the fore in the county's peace process. While land re-access for the six million dislocatees is critical for food, security and political stability, conflict over land resources has become a primary concern of the government and both the regional and international community participating in Mozambique's recovery. Based on data recently collected over a year-and-a-half in Mozambique, this paper will look at the problematic issues of land access, land conflict, and land conflict resolution emerging from the recent 16 year war, and highlight the role of organizations from the national to the international, in land conflict resolution.

Myanmar talks have not lessened two-track deal risks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government

Significance The talks are part of the effort to end decades of fighting between Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Impacts Myanmar's government will need further Chinese support to bring north-eastern EMAGs back into the peace process. Vested economic interests will likely complicate reaching any peace deal. The government will have difficulty securing new NCA signatories while managing ties with the FPNCC. Pressure will grow for greater civil society involvement in the Panglong process, including media, hitherto barred.

Mali peace is slipping away

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Question

Significance However, opposition political parties and former rebels, most prominently northern Mali’s main ex-rebel bloc, the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA), refuse to participate in the dialogue. Substantial tensions between the government and CMA present worrying signals about the trajectory of Mali's peace process. Impacts Rising insecurity will prompt neighbouring states to apply greater pressure on Bamako to resolve the situation in northern Mali. Jihadist leader Iyad ag Ghali will be central to resolving the political question in the north. France’s opposition to talks with jihadists may delay or preclude altogether such an option.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

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