Jumping to Conclusions Bias

2018 ◽  
pp. 188-213
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Psychological Disorders ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Healthy Population ◽  
Positive Symptoms ◽  
Jumping To Conclusions ◽  
High Level

Jumping to conclusions bias is a tendency to make decisions with a high level of haste, even taking into account that there is little evidence. The jumping to conclusions bias has been widely associated with patients with schizophrenia, above all, in those patients who have positive symptomatology, that is, delusions. This cognitive bias is involved in the onset, maintenance, and relapse of these positive symptoms in schizophrenia. Also, it has been found in other psychological disorders and in healthy populations, above all in individual with schizotypy personality traits. Due to the extensive study on this cognitive bias, a detailed explanation of it will be carried out in relation to certain psychological disorders, especially schizophrenia. Moreover, the chapter describes recent studies with healthy population to see how it affects the decision-making process.

scholarly journals Decision-making process for introduction of maternal vaccines in Kenya, 2017–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy A. Otieno ◽  
Fauzia A. Malik ◽  
Stacy W. Nganga ◽  
Winnie N. Wairimu ◽  
Dominic O. Ouma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Implementation Process ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Maternal Immunization ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
High Level

Abstract Background Maternal immunization is a key strategy for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases in mothers and their newborns. Recent developments in the science and safety of maternal vaccinations have made possible development of new maternal vaccines ready for introduction in low- and middle-income countries. Decisions at the policy level remain the entry point for maternal immunization programs. We describe the policy and decision-making process in Kenya for the introduction of new vaccines, with particular emphasis on maternal vaccines, and identify opportunities to improve vaccine policy formulation and implementation process. Methods We conducted 29 formal interviews with government officials and policy makers, including high-level officials at the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group, and Ministry of Health officials at national and county levels. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. We analyzed the qualitative data using NVivo 11.0 software. Results All key informants understood the vaccine policy formulation and implementation processes, although national officials appeared more informed compared to county officials. County officials reported feeling left out of policy development. The recent health system decentralization had both positive and negative impacts on the policy process; however, the negative impacts outweighed the positive impacts. Other factors outside vaccine policy environment such as rumours, sociocultural practices, and anti-vaccine campaigns influenced the policy development and implementation process. Conclusions Public policy development process is complex and multifaceted by its nature. As Kenya prepares for introduction of other maternal vaccines, it is important that the identified policy gaps and challenges are addressed.

Cognitive Bias and its Relationship to Decision Making: the Case of Talented Secondary Students in Jeddah: الانحياز المعرفي وعلاقته باتخاذ القرار لدى عينة من طالبات المرحلة الثانوية الموهوبات بمدينة جدة

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (45) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalal Hamid Al-Dhahri, Arwa Abdullah Al-Ghamdi, Mogeda El-Sa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Students ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
School Administration ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims at investigating the relationship between cognitive biases and decision making from a sample of gifted secondary students. It also aims at identifying the level of students’ cognitive biases and decision making and the differences in these two areas based on different classrooms. Random sampling was used to collect data from 139 female secondary students from the gifted group. Their age ranged between (16-18) with an average of (16.6), A descriptive method was adopted in the study. The research tools used consisted of DACOBS David Assessment of Cognitive biases Scale (Vander Gaag. et al., 2000), translated and standardized by the present researchers, and Tuistra’s decision making scale for teenagers (Tuinstra, et al., 2000). The findings of the study show a negative correlation between cognitive biases and decision making. Also, there were no differences between cognitive biases and decision making scores based on different classrooms. The study also shows a low level of students’ cognitive biases and a high level of decision making. The study recommends activating the role of mentors and students' counseling, planning for the values and behaviors that need to be acquired by students by including them in the annual goals of the school administration and participating in societal awareness and education.

Queensland Digital Health Clinical Charter: a clinical consensus statement on priorities for digital health in hospitals

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 661
Author(s):  
Clair Sullivan ◽  
Andrew Staib ◽  
Keith McNeil ◽  
David Rosengren ◽  
Ian Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Executive Leadership ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Health Technologies ◽  
Clinical Community ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
High Level

Digital transformation of Australian hospitals is occurring rapidly. Although the clinical community has had limited ability to influence high-level decision making and investments into digital health technologies, as these technologies increasingly transform the way patients are cared for, the clinical community must influence the digital health agenda and be an integral part of the decision-making process. This case study details the process and lessons learnt during the development of the state-wide consensus statement detailing the clinical requirements for digital health initiatives to form the Queensland Digital Health Clinical Charter. To the best of our knowledge, Queensland is the first Australian jurisdiction to create a Digital Clinical Charter to be specifically referenced in the investment in and governance of digital health in hospitals. By developing this clinical charter for digital health, and in articulating the needs of clinicians, a clinical framework will be added to both the decision-making process around the investments in digital health and the definition and realisation of the expected benefits from these sizable investments. What is known about the topic? Digital transformation of healthcare is occurring rapidly. The clinical community has had limited ability to influence high-level decision making and investments into these digital health technologies. Tension currently exists between the clinical community who must use the new digital technologies and the technical groups that govern the introduction of the new technologies. This tension can be manifest as clinicians refusing to adopt new systems, safety concerns and an inability to reach consensus on direction. There are few peer reviewed publications addressing this tension between the clinical community and technical providers. What does this paper add? This paper is the first attempt to create a list of clinical requirements for digital transformation that crosses professional streams and is endorsed by the state-wide executive leadership team to inform the acquisition and governance of digital health technologies. What are the implications for practitioners? Clinicians can feel excluded and marginalised during the decision-making process for new digital technologies, despite the fact that they are often using these technologies to deliver hands-on care to patients. This charter clearly articulates the requirements of clinicians for digital transformation and has been endorsed by the executive leadership team of Queensland Health. The charter adds a clinical framework to be referenced during the decision-making process around the investments in digital health, and the definition and realisation of the expected benefits from these sizable investments. As the digital landscape in public hospitals evolves, clinicians are becoming increasingly reliant upon digital technologies. It is critical that clinicians have a strong effect on technology acquisition and governance to maximise the quality and efficiency of the care they provide.

A moderated mediation analysis of the effect of lettering case and color temperature on trustworthiness perceptions and investment decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 987-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Song ◽  
Yan Luximon ◽  
Jing Luo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Color Temperature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Color Design ◽  
Complex Information ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Behavioral Research Method ◽  
High Level ◽  
Investment Intentions

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to test the theoretical framework of lettering case, color temperature, perceived trustworthiness and investment intentions. First, it aims to test whether the effect of lettering case on investment intentions is mediated by trustworthiness. Second, the study will examine if this process is moderated by color temperature.Design/methodology/approachFollowing the behavioral research method, this study employed a 2 (the fully-lowercase slogan vs the initial-uppercase slogan) by 2 (warm-color design vs cool-color design) full factorial between-subject design. Two hundred participants were recruited for the experiment to test the hypotheses.FindingsFor the lowercase slogans (vs uppercase slogans), we found that people tended to have a high level of perceived trustworthiness, which led to a high level of investment intentions. In addition, the indirect effect of the lettering case on investment intentions through the perceived trustworthiness was moderated by color temperature. Specifically, the visually warm advertisement (vs visually cool design) would strengthen the effect of lowercase slogans on customers' investment intentions.Originality/valueWhen people make a financial decision with limited, incomplete or overly complex information, simplified visual heuristics, rather than rational algorithmic processing, play a significant role in their decision-making process. However, only a limited amount of research has addressed the effect of the lettering case on customers' perceptions and the consequent decision-making process from a financial advertising perspective. This study tries to supplement and extend the visual heuristics theory, highlighting the role of simplified heuristics, rather than rational algorithmic processing, in financial customers' decision-making process.

scholarly journals „Unáhlené závěry“ u psychotických onemocnění: přehledová studie

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-71
Author(s):  
Mabel Rodriguez ◽  
Petra Šustová
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Studies ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Narrative Review ◽  
Positive Symptoms ◽  
Metacognitive Training ◽  
Jumping To Conclusions

This narrative review describes the most frequently investigated cognitive bias in psychosis – jumping to conclusions. This bias refers to deviance in reasoning, when person reach to the conclusion on the basis of little evidence than it is usual. Experimental studies describe presence of the bias across all psychotic continuum. Jumping to conclusions is most frequently studied in associations with delusions, there are discrepancies between results from metaanalyses and longitudinal studies about the nature of relationship between those two phenomena. Relationship between cognition and this bias remains also unclear. Methodology of measuring this bias is very fragmented, which brings o lots of problems descibed in the article. Last part is dedicated to posibilities and efectivity of metacognitive training, which could lead to decrease in jumping to conclusion and potentially nonfarmacologicaly influence delusion and other positive symptoms.

scholarly journals BIG DATA IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN PUBLIC POLICY: FROM ANALYSIS OF THEORIES TO EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PRACTICES

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-51
Author(s):  
S. А. Shmeleva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
The Political ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Political Decision Making

This article analyzes the theoretical research base of the last decade on the use of big data in the decision-making process in public administration and describes the methodology proposed by Van der Voort for eval-uating the influence of the two elements on each other. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that there is an extensive study of the use of big data in public administration with an emphasis on potential benefits and threats that conditionally divides researchers into techno-optimists and techno-pessimists. Most studies are empirical in nature, however, they are fragmented and use different approaches to identify the relationships between big data and political decision making. The question arises as to how can we verify or evaluate the relationship between big data and the political decision-making process, taking into account both the dubious reliability of the data used in the process and the interests of decision-makers. The article describes the methodology proposed by Van der Voort for assessing these relationships taking into account the role of ac-tors in the political decision-making process using big data, as well as their interests and values.

Cognitive Functions, Impulsivity and Personality Traits in Alcohol Dependent Subjects

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (S1) ◽  
pp. 1-1 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Struglia ◽  
A. Tomassini ◽  
P. Stratta ◽  
D. Spaziani ◽  
A. Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
Iowa Gambling Task ◽  
Choice Pattern ◽  
Character Inventory ◽  
Task Strategies ◽  
Dependent Sample ◽  
High Level ◽  
Alcohol Dependent

The term ‘decision making’ indicates the aspects of executive functions related to the ability to modulate the reward and punishment perception, in order to operate advantageous choices.Subjects with alcoholism exhibit poor decision making and high level of impulsivity.This study assesses the relationship between decision making ability, as measured by Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), and impulsivity and others temperamental and character traits in a long-term abstinent alcohol dependent sample.30 abstinent alcohol dependent subjects, referred to Drug Addiction Unit of National Health Service of L'Aquila were assessed using IGT, the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale 11-item version (BIS-11) and the Temperament and Character Inventory - 125 items (TCI-125). The mean age was 44.53 (8.66 SD) years and educational level was 9.03 years (2.52).15 control subjects were recruited from general population and assessed with IGT only (age 41.38±11.10; educational level 12.23±3.44).The clinical and the control samples significantly differ in their performance on the IGT, the former making disadvantageous choices in the task leading to lower scores. We found only a significant correlation between IGT total score and the BIS factor Non-Planning Impulsivity.The alcoholic subjects, although in a abstinent status, show difficulties to learn the task strategies and/or earn from experience to orient toward an advantageous choice pattern, supporting the hypothesis of a decision making impairment.The lack of correlation with impulsivity factors and personality traits supports the results of other studies concluding that, at dimensional level, decision making abilities may be a distinct construct.

Detecting and Avoiding Cognitive Biases

2018 ◽  
pp. 236-258
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Clinical Population ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Healthy Population ◽  
Wrong Answer ◽  
The Right

Cognitive biases affect the decision-making process. These cognitive biases can help us to make a right or effective and quick decision, but many times they can produce wrong, illogical, or unfounded decisions or judgments. For this reason, this chapter will describe some programs, games, techniques, and therapies to detect and reduce them. These programs can be used both in the clinical population and healthy population. Therefore, the first step is being aware of our biases and the second step would be doing practical exercises to reduce and avoid them in our decision making. Practicing these exercises does not help us to always choose the right option, but they inhibit the wrong answer.

Cognitive Biases

2018 ◽  
pp. 214-235
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Legal Education ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions

This chapter will describe some implications of using cognitive biases in the decision-making process in social areas such as economic, legal, education, and political. The cognitive bias would be a pattern of deviation in judgment, in which the inferences that we make about other people and/or situations can be illogical. Moreover, different studies have found that even strategic decisions that affect the society can be influenced by these biases. Therefore, it is important to be aware of them to try to detect and reduce them. Above all, it is necessary to teach how to detect them in order to reduce them in public professionals.

scholarly journals Impacts of Visualizations on Decoy Effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12674
Author(s):  
Yuin Jeong ◽  
Sangheon Oh ◽  
Younah Kang ◽  
Sung-Hee Kim
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Qualitative Interview ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decoy Effect ◽  
Qualitative Interview Study ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Decoy Effects ◽  
Visual Interfaces

The decoy effect is a well-known, intriguing decision-making bias that is often exploited by marketing practitioners to steer consumers towards a desired purchase outcome. It demonstrates that an inclusion of an alternative in the choice set can alter one’s preference among the other choices. Although this decoy effect has been universally observed in the real world and also studied by many economists and psychologists, little is known about how to mitigate the decoy effect and help consumers make informed decisions. In this study, we conducted two experiments: a quantitative experiment with crowdsourcing and a qualitative interview study—first, the crowdsourcing experiment to see if visual interfaces can help alleviate this cognitive bias. Four types of visualizations, one-sided bar chart, two-sided bar charts, scatterplots, and parallel-coordinate plots, were evaluated with four different types of scenarios. The results demonstrated that the two types of bar charts were effective in decreasing the decoy effect. Second, we conducted a semi-structured interview to gain a deeper understanding of the decision-making strategies while making a choice. We believe that the results have an implication on showing how visualizations can have an impact on the decision-making process in our everyday life.

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