The Impact of USD-TRY Forex Rate Volatility on Imports to Turkey from Central Asia

2020 ◽  
pp. 70-89
Author(s):  
Yakup Ari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to put out the impact of volatility of the USD-TRY forex rate on imports to Turkey from Central Asia. The volatility of the USD/TRY exchange rate is analysed with a conditional variance model which is Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model and its extensions. The other section of the methodology is an application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test which is an efficient approach to determine the cointegration, long-term and short-term relations between macroeconomic variables. The exponential GARCH volatility of the exchange rate and the monthly trade data between the years 2005 and 2018 are used in the ARDL bounds test.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Autoregressive Distributed Lag Kurs Dan Ekspor Karet Remah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Nulhanuddin Nulhanuddin ◽  
Devi Andriyani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crumb Rubber ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach

This study aims to determine the effect of short-term and long-term exchange rates and crumb rubber exports on the economic growth of Indonesia. The data used are secondary data for 39 years from 1980 to 2018 accessed on www.world.bank.wdi.data.bank.org, www.pertanian.go.id, www.bps.go.id, and www.bps.go.id. The data analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with the help of EViews 10 software. The results show that the economic growth is stationary at the level and exchange rate and exports of stationary crumb rubber at the first difference level and have cointegration in the long-term relationship. The test results in the short-term analysis of the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, while in the long run, the exchange rate has a negative effect but insignificant, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. Keywords:economic growth, exchange rates, exports and the ARDL approach.  

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real exchange rate and net FDI inflows in Mauritius

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok Babubudjnauth ◽  
Boopendra Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Series Methodology ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of real exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive distributed lag time series methodology is used. Findings Real exchange rate depreciation enhances inflows of FDI in both the short and long run. Originality/value The research is original, and data used are from official sources.

scholarly journals Indonesian Export Analysis: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syarifah Labibah ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive

There are some factors predicted tohave an effect on the countries’ economic devlopment. This study aimed to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of In-flation, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Economic Growth (the destination of the United States, China, and Japan) on the Indonesian Export. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is used in this analysis from 1968 through 2017. The results of the analysis show that in the long-term, the inflation and the economic growth in China as well in Japan has a positive sign and significant effect on Indonesian exports. In addition, in the short-term, the US exchange rate and economic growth have a positive significant effect on Indonesian exports.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Angga Khoerul Umam ◽  
Ririn Tri Ratnasari ◽  
Sri Herianingrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production index, SBIS and inflation on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. This study uses monthly data from May 2011 to December 2018. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causality between macroeconomic variables and the Indonesian Islamic stock index. Especially in the long run, industrial production index and inflation have a significant effect on ISSI, while the exchange rate, interest rates and SBIS have no significant effect on ISSI. IRF results show that the response of each variable and stable at different times. The ISSI response experienced a positive shock that occurred in the industrial production index and inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate, the Bungan rate and SBIS were responded negatively by ISSI.

scholarly journals Does the Volatility of Macroeconomic Variables Depress The Profitability of Islamic Banking?

JEJAK ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-42
Author(s):  
Agus Widarjono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Islamic banking in Indonesia has been growing rapidly since 2010. The  profitability of Islamic bank depends on Islamic bank characteristics and macroeconomic condition. As a country with an open economy, macroeconomic conditions are very volatile. Through the theory of exchange rate pass through, the exchange rate fluctuation affects domestic prices so that it affects the profits of Islamic bank.  This study analyzes the impact of the instability of the macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate and inflation on the profitability of Islamic bank. The instability of inflation and exchange rate are measured using the GARCH  (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). This study applies ARDL  (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model). The data used is monthly data starting from January 2011 to June 2018. The results of the study show that the exchange rate and inflation instability depress the profitability of Islamic banki. More interestingly, instability of inflation has a greater negative impact than the instability of exchange rate on Islamic bank profit. The most Islamic bank characteristics influencing Islamic banking profit was bad financing as known as a non performing financing (NPF).

scholarly journals The impact of financial policy on economic growth in Jordan (2000-2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-108
Author(s):  
Nawaf Alghusin ◽  
Ayman Abdalmajeed Alsmadi ◽  
Esraa Alkhatib ◽  
Atala Mohammad Alqtish
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Taxation System ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of financial policy on rate of economic growth in Jordan for the period of (2000-2017) taking into the considerations the fluctuations of taxation system. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been utilized in order to analyze the long term relationship between study variable which are; money supply (M2), domestic credit provided by banks (DCBS) and real Gross Domestic Product GDP. The results shows that, money (M2) and domestic credit provided by banks (DCBS) can effects on GDP in Jordan for the study period. The taxation system in Jordan has been fluctuated many times during 2017 and 2018, which made the data partly not available. This led the researchers to spend long time to find an accurate data in order to finalize this study. This study will add good practical evidence on the impact of changing the taxation system positively or negatively on the economic growth.

scholarly journals The impact of Covid-19 on the port environment: The case of Tanger Med container port, Morocco

2021 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. 00025
Author(s):  
Hajar Abous ◽  
Mhamed Hamiche ◽  
Mohamed El Merouani
Keyword(s):  
Global Supply Chains ◽  
Container Port ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
The World ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The appearance of the COVID-19 virus has a huge impact on the economy, where many factories and logistics flows are affected. With global supply chains severely disrupted, production and consumption centers around the world are beginning to be affected by the situation. our study tried to measure the impact of this pandemic on the containers transport in Morocco, our work targeted the Tanger Med port due to its geographic position as the most important link between Africa and Europe, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique was applied, this model integrates the term of lag and difference in the modeling of linear series. To verify the existence of long-term relationships, F-bond test was applied. The model was estimated on short and long term. the results were significant and has shown that the activity within Tanger Med port, experienced a shock during the pandemic period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emission: Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Guo ◽  
Yanfang Hu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper studies the impact of financial development on carbon emissions in China from 1997 to 2016. First, this paper uses the entropy method to construct a synthetical index to measure the financial development. Meanwhile, a two-dimensional panel framework is introduced to group provinces in the panel analysis. The estimation results of the time series autoregressive distributed lag model show that for China as a whole, there is a weak carbon emissions reduction effect of financial development, whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect. The estimation results of the panel autoregressive distributed lag model also support that an increase in financial development suppresses carbon emissions. Although financial development inhibits carbon emissions both in the short run and in the long run, the absolute value of the long-term coefficient of financial development is significantly greater than that of the short-term coefficient.

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