Seeking Global Coherence

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Alex Bennet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Trust In Government ◽  
Global Culture ◽  
Global Coherence ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Virtual Relationships

The historical focus on relationships based on the trust and respect of people—initially family and then moving into business associates—has become idea focused, with value built on respect for and resonance with ideas. Simultaneously, trust based on integrity and consistency over time has given way to instant virtual relationships, often built on ONE BIG IDEA, whether it is true or not. This is the concept of Idea Locking. This chapter asks: Is there something deeper at play here? Trust in government media has waxed and waned with changes in administrations, yet the continued government focus on transparency, participation, and collaboration are attributes embraced by the Millennials, the new generation of decision-makers moving into positions of power, who bring with them an inclusive culture embracing coherence. A true global generation, it is this technology-literate group that seeks connection and who, if they can be reached, offers the potential to create a global culture of coherence.

The Fall of Balmaceda and Public Finance in Chile: New Data for an Old Debate

1982 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Bowman ◽  
Michael Wallerstein
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Parliamentary System ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
The Subject ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Over Time

The 1891 civil war that led to the downfall of President José Manuel Balmaceda is without doubt one of the most visible episodes of Chilean history. Already the subject of a voluminous bibliography by 1894 (Echeverría y Reyes, 1894), the “revolution's” importance to historians of Chile actually increased over time as a new generation of scholars came to view it not merely as a discrete event of limited intrinsic interest but as an important key to understanding Chile's subsequent political and economic development. In retrospect, the conflict came to be seen as a “crucial watershed” in Chilean history (Blakemore, 1974: 243), marking the replacement of a presidential system—1833-1891—notable in nineteenth-century Latin America for political stability, by a parliamentary system—1891-1924—notorious for political and monetary disorder.

Thinking Systemically About Security and Resilience in an Era of Cybered Conflict

2019 ◽  
pp. 44-59
Author(s):  
Peter Dombrowski ◽  
Chris C. Demchak
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Systemic Approach ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Peace And War ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Civil Societies

The international system now depends on cyberspace, a global ‘substrate' of massive, complex, insecurely designed networks providing systemic advantages to masses of predators and adversaries. States today face an unprecedented spectrum of ‘cybered conflict' between peace and war with growing existential implications. Their piecemeal searches for defensible jurisdictions are creating a rising Cyber Westphalian world crisscrossed with gateways, holes, national cyber forces, and often partial, uncoordinated, or vague strategies. Over time, the world will have robust, midlevel, and poor cyber powers, with the first tier coercing the others and dominating the rules of exchange. Democratic civil societies are not guaranteed to be robust. For acceptable future societal well-being in a deceptive and opaque cybered world, decision-makers need a systemic approach based on the logic of complex socio-technical-economic systems (STES) to create the systemic resilience and disruption capacities across shareable (across allies/sectors) secure architectures essential to becoming a robust cyber power, which is the focus of this chapter.

Analysis and Decision

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-186
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

This chapter explains how decision makers can incorporate assessments of uncertainty into high-stakes foreign policy choices. It begins by describing a simple analytic tool called break-even analysis, with which leaders can use explicit probability assessments as a point of leverage for determining whether or not a risky decision is worthwhile. The chapter then explains how transparent probabilistic reasoning is especially important for assessing strategic progress. In some cases, it can actually be impossible to make rigorous judgments about the extent to which foreign policies are making acceptable progress without assessing subjective probabilities in detail. This argument departs from a large body of existing scholarship on learning in international politics that assumes leaders can use a straightforward logic of trial and error to determine how they should update their strategic perceptions over time. The chapter provides examples of these dynamics drawn from the U.S. occupation of Iraq.

Towards Spatial Decision Support System for Animals Traceability

2011 ◽  
pp. 389-411
Author(s):  
Marcos Visoli ◽  
Sandro Bimonte ◽  
Sônia Ternes ◽  
François Pinet ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chanet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Spatial Decision Support System ◽  
Private Institutions ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
New Generation

Animal traceability is a very important question for several government and private institutions from many points of view: economical, sanitary, etc. Traditional systems are able to memorize the main bovine movements, or to capture the geolocation of an animal using RFID. Now it should be possible to envisage a new generation of traceability systems in which the different locations are automatically recorded several times per day for each animal. These systems should also be coupled with analysis techniques to help decision-makers to take decisions, validate and/or reformulate their hypothesis. In this chapter the authors present a spatial decision support system dedicated to the animal geolocation acquisitions and analysis of possible sanitary problems. Indeed, in case of sanitary alerts, the system is able to determine the animals which have been in contact with a diseased animal exploiting historical trajectories of animals. It is applied to traceability of beef cattle using the Brazilian production system as a case study. OTAG focuses on improving methods and geotechnologies for recording reliable and accurate data on beef production.

scholarly journals Telling the boiling frog what he needs to know: why climate change risks should be plotted as probability over time

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time if you do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of the biggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision makers before the research is conducted instead of afterwards.

Pathosformel as grammar

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-135
Author(s):  
Edward H. Wouk
Keyword(s):  
Present Article ◽  
Visual Arts ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Artistic Creation ◽  
Visual Material ◽  
And Function ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Over Time

The artist and polymath Lambert Lombard of Liège developed a radical outlook on the theory and practice of artistic creation that he sought to illustrate in a ‘grammar’ of formal studies. Devised during a period of intense crisis for image-making in northern Europe, this ‘grammar’ offered a means to restore authority to the visual arts by recovering a canon of forms that had been perfected in antiquity yet became diluted over time. The present article examines the development and function of Lombard’s ‘grammar’, focusing on its role in the instruction he provided to a new generation of Netherlandish artists. It explores similarities between Lombard’s project and Aby Warburg’s celebrated Mnemosyne Atlas, compiled between 1924 and 1929. This comparison provides new insights into the visual, material and conceptual strategies through which Lombard’s ‘grammar’ illuminated the entwined properties of motion and emotion that he defined as the essence of perfect art.

By Popular Demand: Revitalizing Representative Democracy Through Deliberative Elections By John Gastil. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2000. 275p. $48.00 cloth, $18.95 paper.

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 637-638
Author(s):  
Christopher Wlezien
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Campaign Finance ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The State ◽  
University Of California ◽  
Trust In Government ◽  
American Democracy ◽  
Over Time

A growing chorus of academics, journalists, and politicos alike bemoans the state of American democracy. The symptoms are well known. Public trust in government has declined over time, the stock of social capital has shrunk, and turnout remains low. Some observers even argue that politicians now are less responsive to public opinion on various issues. Perhaps understandably, there is increasing pressure for reform of the electoral process, including campaign finance, the conduct of campaigns, media coverage of campaigns, and election rules themselves. In By Popular Demand, John Gastil joins the call for reform, but in an original and provocative way.

scholarly journals Dynamic Incentive-Aware Learning: Robust Pricing in Contextual Auctions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Negin Golrezaei ◽  
Adel Javanmard ◽  
Vahab Mirrokni
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Online Advertising ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Effective Learning ◽  
Reserve Prices ◽  
Feedback Data ◽  
Over Time

In many practical settings, the decision makers have to learn their best actions by experimenting with possible options and collecting feedback (data) over time. It is often assumed that the collected data can be trusted as they reflect the ground truth. But this assumption is violated when the data are generated by strategic players. Consider online advertising market in which the ad exchange (decision maker) aims at learning the best reserve prices in the repeated auctions. In this setting, the data are advertisers’ submitted bids. Such data can be strategically corrupted by advertisers to trick the learning algorithm of the ad exchange to offer them lower reserve prices in the future auctions. In “Dynamic Incentive-Aware Learning: Robust Pricing in Contextual Auctions,” N. Golrezaei, A. Javanmard, and V. Mirrokni design effective learning algorithms with sublinear regret in such environments that are robust to the strategic behavior of the players.

Declining Trust in Congress: Effects of Polarization and Consequences for Democracy

The Forum ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Public Trust ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Trust In Government ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Party Polarization ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Legislative Branch ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWhy has Congress, once a widely trusted institution, experienced such a uniquely dramatic decline in the public’s confidence, and what are the consequences for democracy? This article sets out to systematically address these questions. First, I discuss how we can gauge Americans’ levels of trust in Congress. Second, I examine trends over time in public trust in Congress, looking both partisan differences within this measure, and also overall differences in comparison to other institutions. Third, I examine various ways in which the much-noted rise in party polarization in Congress might explain the downward trend in Americans’ trust in that institution. Finally, I explore one potentially important consequence of declining trust in the legislative branch: Americans’ willingness to obey laws. The results suggest that those interested in the problem of declining trust in government would be wise to focus their attention on Congress. Compared to other institutions, the problem in Congress appears more severe, more intractable, and carries greater political consequences.

Adoption of Cloud Computing in Firms to Enable Software as a Service

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Gilleo ◽  
Mary Lind
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
Information Systems ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Software As A Service ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Marketing Effort ◽  
Web Browser ◽  
Continued Use ◽  
Use Factors ◽  
Over Time

Software as a Service (SaaS) is a subset of cloud computing that provides information systems functionality through a web browser. Organizations that adopt SaaS can receive value over time if they continue to use the SaaS solution after implementation. This study analyzed the extent to which SaaS adoption and continued use factors affect the continued use of SaaS in organizations. The research can help organizations maximize the value of SaaS by identifying success factors for continued use. The study determined the extent to which the independent factors of Rapport, Responsiveness, Reliability, Features, Security, Flexibility, and Marketing Effort affected the dependent variable of the decision makers' intent to continue use of SaaS within their organization.

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