scholarly journals Ṣukūk: A Sharīʿah Compliant Tool for Financing Budget Deficits

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Omar Zuhair Hafiz Omar Zuhair Hafiz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
International Debt ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The lead paper (Pettifor, 2019) discusses an important issue at the macroeconomic level, especially the impact of financing government’s expansionary budget deficit through borrowing. The paper reiterates that claiming that the use of loans to finance the deficit will lead to a decline in the economic activity and will in turn increase the deficit, is a common misconception. In fact, the data on the British economy over a period of a hundred years, as shown in the lead paper, proves that there is a positive relationship between the volume of the budget deficit (and public debt) and economic activity. This, in turn, lead to a decrease in unemployment and thus, eventually contributed to a reduction in the budget deficit. These results have been proven by other researches as well as I have mentioned in this paper. I have also pointed to other researches which indicate that there is a negative relationship between the size of the debt (or the budget deficit), and economic activity, which contradicts the hypothesis of the lead paper. In this brief comment on the lead paper, I also discuss the fact that the global debt phenomenon has become a burning issue. I present a summary of the state of international debt around the world and discuss its impact on the economies of many countries that repay their debts in hard currencies. I argue that this situation must be taken into consideration when discussing the impact of borrowing to finance the government budget deficit to stimulate economic growth. I also propose that these effects on the borrowing economies should also be analyzed in the event that these international loans are in the form of Islamic instruments (ṣukūk) which are increasingly being used by some governments as a tool to finance their budget deficits, especially among the OIC countries. However, because it is a modern financing tool, several years need to pass before we can viably test the relationship between them and economic growth and the extent of their impact on key variables at the macro level of the economy.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals Moderating Effect of Political Instability on ICT and Economic Growth Nexus in Kenya: ARDL Bound - Co-Integration Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matundura Erickson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
The Relationship

The government has attempted to target specific macroeconomic factors in order to stimulate economic growth in Kenya through monetary and fiscal policies. Despite these efforts, Kenya's GDP growth is hampered by high interest rates and high interest rate volatility. Kenya's ability to address macroeconomic instability hinges on its ability to increase economic growth. Auxiliary evidence shows that perspectives on the relationship between ICT and economic growth are segmented. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of ICT on economic growth in Kenya, as well as the moderating effect of political instability on the relationship. The research was based on Solow's theory of growth. An explanatory research design was used, with data spanning from 1990-2020 obtained from Kenya Bureau of Statistics. In the empirical analysis, the study used the bound test to test for a long-run relationship and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the relationship between the variables. The data was subjected to an Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test to determine stationarity.The long run ARDL results indicated that the coefficients of; ICT rate were insignificant . However with the introduction of political instability as the moderator ICT was significant and positively affected economic growth. Political instability moderated the relationship between ICT ( and economic growth. As a result, promoting effective governance should help to improve political stability. The findings of this study will help the government figure out how to address the problem of low economic growth. According to the study, the government should invest in the ICT sector to improve its accessibility and affordability. Additionally, the government should work to improve political stability and good governance by gradually establishing institutions that uphold the rule of law and provide security.

scholarly journals Inflation and Economic Growth: a Review of The International Literature

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Foluso A. Akinsola ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Country Specific

This paper surveys the existing literature on the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developed and developing countries, highlighting the theoretical and empirical indications. The study finds that the impact of inflation on economic growth varies from country to country and over time. The study also finds that the results from these studies depend on country‑specific characteristics, the data set used, and the methodology employed. On balance, the study finds overwhelming support in favour of a negative relationship between inflation and growth, especially in developed economies. However, there is still much controversy about the specific threshold level of inflation that is appropriate for growth. Most previous studies on this subject just assume a unidirectional causal relationsship between inflation and economic growth. To our knowledge, this may be the first review of its kind to survey, in detail, the existing research on the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. p207
Author(s):  
Josephat Lotto ◽  
Catherine T. Mmari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The main objective of this paper was to examine the impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1990 to 2015 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to estimate the effects. The study finds that there is an inverse but insignificant relationship between domestic debt and the economic growth of Tanzania as measured by GDP annual growth. The inverse relationship between domestic debt and GDP may be caused by different factors such as; increased trend in domestic borrowing, government lenders’ profile dominated by commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions which promotes the “crowding out” effect; the nature of the instruments used by the government ; the improper use of the domestic borrowed funds which may include funding budgetary deficits, paying up principal and matured obligations on debt, developing financial markets as well as fund other government operations. Other control variables relate with the GDP as predicted. For example, Inflation (INF) has a negative effect on the GDP growth rate, but the relationship is not statistically significant, while gross capital formation (GCF) has a positive statistically significant effect on GDP growth rate. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a positive effect on the GDP growth rate and export (X) has a positive effect on GDP growth rate, and the relationship is statistically significant explaining that if a country applied an export-led growth economic strategy it enjoys the gains of participating in the world market. This means that an increase in export stimulates demand for goods which leads to increase in output, and as a country’s output increases, the economic performance also takes a similar trend. Finally, government expenditure (GE) had a negative effect on the GDP growth rate which may be explained by the increased government expenditures which are funded by either tax or borrowing. Therefore, what is required for countries like Tanzania is to have better debt management strategies as well as prudential financial management while maintaining to remain within the internationally acceptable debt level of 45% of GDP and maintain a GDP growth rate of not less than 5%. It is important for the country to realize from where to borrow from, the tenure, the risks involved and limitations to borrowing and thus set the right balance of combination of both kinds of debt. Another requirement is to properly utilize the borrowed funds. The central government’s objective should be to use the funds in more development-oriented projects that bring positive returns to the economic development.  The government should not only create a right environment and policies for investment to attract investment from domestic and foreign sources but also be cautious about the kind of investments that the foreign investors make.

EMPIRICAL STUDIES ANALYZING THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND TAXATION ON ACTIVITY

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1646
Author(s):  
Mahije Mustafi ◽  
Sulbije Memeti Karemani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the empirical literature that examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity. Discussion related to fiscal policy is related to the impacts on economic growth is quite current, because the development of appropriate fiscal instruments can lead to steady and sustainable economic growth in the countries. The role of fiscal policy and the impact on economic activity are among the most controversial issues among academics and policymakers. In the absence of any "active" intervention in government expenses, tax revenues move automatically with the economic cycle. I can also say that government transfers can be considered as help for the unemployed, they grow as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, while labor tax returns, capital and consumption flows are declining. Resistive actions occur when the business cycle improves. In recent years, empirical studies have shown that private consumption and GDP have increased significantly, while government expenses have been severely reduced. Most empirical evidence suggests that fiscal expansion increases production and consumption and worsens the trade balance.The Kenzie and Neoclassical schools have different views on the impact of public spending on economic activity. This study has completed a detailed review of many important, relevant scientific havepapersthat empirically document these impacts. As a conclusion, we can state that although the fiscal policy theory is well developed, until recently has not received much attention from the (applied) economic practice. The first category is aimed at assessing macroeconomic impact from major reductions in the budget deficit, and the second study, in general, analyzes the stabilizing capabilities of fiscal policy variables. According to Blanchard and Perotti, the dynamic effects of the discretionary fiscal policy of macroeconomic variables have recently focused on the omissions of autoregressive vectors (2002). Some empirical studies have found a link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation, both in industrialized economies as well as in growing economies. For industrial economies most of these studies have come to the conclusion that there is little evidence that government debt affects the growth of money and inflation. In developing countries, it is often argued that high inflation is realized when governments face large and ongoing deficits financed by money emission. A change in taxes or public expenses (the so-called “fiscal shocks”) at any time prevents their development.

Trade Unions, Economic Growth and Politics

1989 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-384
Author(s):  
Ignace Ng ◽  
John McCallum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Union Density ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Growth Promoting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Even though identifying the causes of economic growth has been the subject of numerous empirical studies, little is known about the impact of inter-country variations in unionization on differences in economic growth between countries. To fill this apparent gap in the literature, the primary objective of this paper is to examine the influence of trade unions on economic growth in seventeen oECD countries from 1960 to 1979. The results show that the nature of the relationship between trade unions and economic growth depends upon the ideology of the government in power. Under 'non-socialist' governments, increased union density reduces economic growth, whereas under `socialist' governments, a higher level of unionization increases economic growth. This, in turn, implies that governments can have an influence on whether trade unions are growth-inhibiting or growth-promoting. However, because of the limitations in the sample used, additional studies are needed before a consensus can be reached on this issue.

scholarly journals Relative Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth in South Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 193672442098041
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the debt-growth nexus by testing both the impact of aggregate public debt on economic growth and the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth using South Africa as the case study—from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the findings reveal that the impact of aggregated public debt on economic growth in South Africa is statistically significant and negative, both in the short run and in the long run. The results further reveal that domestic public debt and economic growth have a statistically significant and positive relationship in the short run only. Furthermore, foreign public debt has a statistically significant and negative relationship with economic growth but only in the long run. Therefore, the study recommends the government to manage effectively its debt and to finance long-term high-returning productive investments that should translate into economic growth. Finally, the study cautions the country against growing public debt, predominantly foreign debt, to finance its increasing recurrent expenditure needs.

scholarly journals Military Expenditure and Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S9) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Domestic Products ◽  
Defence Expenditure

The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth has attract ample interest among economists as well as policy makers. The importance of expanding defence expenditure is substantially to coincide with national security and defence. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of military expenditure on economic growth in Malaysia. An econometrics time series analysis is employed using ARDL estimates spanning from the year 1979 to 2017. The empirical findings reveal a negative relationship between military expenditure and Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Despite the inverse relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth, Malaysia should not neglect the investment on efficient military expenditure, as it has proven that in some countries, defence expenditure promotes a long run economic growth by promoting more job opportunities, protecting the nation and thus, achieving sustainable development. It is recommended to add more variables in future study that can relate security and defence for the country like numbers of crime, and numbers of migrants and refugees. Conclusively defence and security are the important factors for the country in generating the world and public’s confidence and to captivate foreign direct investment. Hence, adequate policy making on military expenditure are utmost important to promote economic growth

scholarly journals DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (312) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Federico Novelo Urdanivia ◽  
Nancy Muller Durán
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sole Source ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

<p>En este artículo analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento económico, el déficit fiscal y la inflación en México, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomía del Banco de México respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endógeno al crecimiento económico, entonces el déficit fiscal no es necesariamente la única causa de la inflación. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aún sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relación negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflación. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento económico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflación.</p><p> </p><p align="center">FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP?</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><strong></strong></p><p>This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de México. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.</p>

scholarly journals The Effect of Government Consumption and Government Investment as Intervening Variables to Growth in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-207
Author(s):  
Suparjito Suparjito ◽  
Julianus Johnny Sarungu ◽  
Albertus Magnus Soesilo ◽  
Bhimo Rizky Samudro ◽  
Erni Ummi Hasanah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy and monetary policy are the two macroeconomic policies used by the government and monetary authorities in order to create a stable economy. The budget deficit policy is one form of fiscal policy implemented by the government in order to realize a high level of economic growth, a controlled inflation rate and open up new job opportunities to reduce unemployment. The impact of the implementation of the budget deficit policy on the level of economic growth is a long debate. Neoclassical groups argue that the implementation of budget deficit policies is detrimental to the economy, as it lowers the rate of economic growth. Keynesian groups argue that the implementation of the budget deficit policy is very good for the economy, because it triggers the rate of economic growth by increasing the number of demand for goods and services through increased government spending. While the Richardian people argue that the implementation of budget deficit policy has no effect on the economy. The data used in this study is data from 1981-2014 which consists of budget deficit, government consumption, government investment and economic growth rate. The method of analysis in this research is using Partial Least Square-Path Modeling (PLS-PM) approach with SMART-PLS analysis tool which aims to analyze the direct and indirect influence of the implementation of budget deficit policy toward the level of economic growth through government consumption and government investment. The results show that the implementation of the budget deficit policy can increase economic growth through increased government investment spending. Keywords: budget deficits, government investment, government consumption, growth.

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