scholarly journals Peripheral Europe beyond the Troika: assessing the ‘success’ of structural reforms in driving the Spanish recovery

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 560-588
Author(s):  
Luis Cárdenas ◽  
Paloma Villanueva ◽  
Ignacio Álvarez ◽  
Jorge Uxó
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Spanish Economy ◽  
Labor Market Reforms ◽  
Shed Light

Since 2014 the Spanish economy has recovered positive GDP growth, and the country has been growing well above the eurozone average. This recovery has sparked an academic and political debate concerning the role that structural reforms, prescribed by the ‘Troika,’ have played in peripheral Europe. For certain scholars and institutions, these structural reforms have allowed the market, through greater wage flexibility, to make the necessary adjustments to restore economic growth, resulting in a ‘healthy’ economic recovery. But to what extent is this mainstream narrative solidly backed up by the empirical evidence? Can Spain be held up as an international example of the ‘success’ of these reforms? The aim of this paper is to shed light on this debate. We consider that labor market reforms and wage devaluation policy are not the drivers of economic recovery. Instead, we offer an alternative explanation for recovery based on the theory of demand-led growth.

scholarly journals Estimating the Output GAP for Lebanon: A Production Function methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-83
Author(s):  
Latifa Ghalayini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
Douglas Production Function

This paper estimates the output Gap for Lebanon to analyze the economic policy and to judge the stance of the economy. Therefore, a Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated for the period Q11998 to Q42015 and potential output calculated by substituting for potential levels of the factors in the estimated production function. The calculation of potential labor required the calculation of the NAIRU. This paper calculates therefore three types of NAIRU. The results of output gap calculations show that the Lebanese economy is working over its capacity and that it hits his limits. Furthermore, findings show that the labor market is characterized by high levels of NAIRU which restricted potential output growth. Therefore, any policy aiming to increase economic growth, while neglecting structural reforms will prove to be unsustainable.

Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Drobyshevsky ◽  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
A. S. Kaukin ◽  
P. N. Pavlov ◽  
S. G. Sinelnikov‑Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Random Shocks ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
Further Development

The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.

What Drives China's Growth?

2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. R4-R15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Yueh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Know How ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Reform Period ◽  
China’S Growth

This paper analyses the drivers and components of China's economic growth, showing that the structure of the economy is just as important as standard growth factors in determining its growth. The structural reforms that dismantled state-owned enterprises and shifted factors from agriculture to urban areas are key, as are technology transfers and know-how. Taking these factors into account, the paper shows that total factor productivity (TFP) not derived from those one-off reforms accounted for less than one-eighth of China's GDP growth during the first thirty years of the reform period. There are signs that efficiency is improving in the 2000s and productivity must continue to increase for the country to sustain its development.

scholarly journals Regionale universiteter og utdanningspolitiske paradokser

2019 ◽  
pp. 53-74
Author(s):  
Ivar Bleiklie
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Organizational Characteristics ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Main Ingredient ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Institutional Mergers ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
University Reforms

The chapter seeks to shed light on university reforms in Norway since 1980 and asks how well-designed the reforms are regarding their capacity to strengthen the impact of universities in the regions where they are located. The chapter starts by asking how well-suited universities are to meet the expectations they face in the regions where they are located. It argues that the institutions in many ways have organizational characteristics – as academic and bureaucratic organizations – that are not well-suited to fulfilling varied and dynamic local needs. Subsequently the chapter analyzes the reforms and changes characterizing higher education – in terms of growth, internationalization and standardization – that may contribute to understanding the current situation. Finally, it takes a closer look at ongoing reforms and transformational processes and their indications of possible trends in the coming years. Here, changing expectations and tensions arising from multiple goals are emphasized in order to understand the obstacles faced by government attempts to enhance labor market relevance by means of structural reforms with institutional mergers as a main ingredient.

Guidance Note on Jobs and Growth Issues in Surveillance and Program Work

Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (78) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Guidance Note ◽  
Labor Market Reforms ◽  
Operational Guidance

This note provides operational guidance to staff on Jobs and Growth issues in surveillance and program work, building on the Board paper “Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund” (hereafter, “Board paper”). Jobs and Growth issues can be defined broadly as issues relating to GDP growth, employment, and income distribution. The Board paper noted that work on these issues needs to be consistent with both the Fund’s mandate and its areas of expertise. On a number of structural issues, especially related to labor market reforms and social protection schemes, the Fund would need to effectively collaborate with other institutions with greater relevant expertise.

scholarly journals The Analysis of the Labor Market in Albania

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Zamira SINAJ
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Average Annual Rate ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
Pyramid Schemes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

Albania's economic growth after 1990 was among the highest of all the economies in transition. Economic activity, as measured at the fair value of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 1996-2015 grew at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent, despite the shock of 1997 because of the collapse of the pyramid schemes and the contraction in GDP growth in 20014-2015 due to the impact of the economic and financial crisis. Such high levels of economic growth, has been preceded by economic and structural reforms and the expansion of services and construction, spurred by remittances and informal activities.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

Oil, Rates and Inflation

2005 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
E. Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Percentage Points

Currency inflow in Russia from raw materials exports allows taking into account high business activity to assimilate growing money supply transforming it into economic growth. Fall in business activity as a result of pressure on business led to saturation of demand for money. This considerably increases the danger of inflation growth and requires sterilization of excess money supply including the usage of the Stabilization Fund. According to the author's estimates, corresponding losses in GDP growth will equal 1-2 percentage points per year.

Anti-crisis measures or structural reforms: Russia’s economic policy in 2015

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
New Models

The paper deals with 2015 trends and challenges for social and economic policy in the nearest future. The analysis of global crisis includes: uneven developments in the leading advanced and emerging economies; new models of economic growth which look differently in different countries; prospects of globalization and challenges of ‘regional globalization’; currency configurations of the future; energy prices dynamics and its influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. Current challenges are discussed in the context of previous 30 years. Among the main topics on Russia, there are approaches to a new growth model, structural transformation (including import substitution issues), economic dynamics, budget and monetary outlines, social issues. The priorities of economic policy are also considered.

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