scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Analysis Based Limestone Quarry Production Planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-45
Author(s):  
Kausar Sultan Shah ◽  
Safi Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Mix Design ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
The Impact

The key factor behind raw mix design in the cement factory is the appropriate production planning, resulting in high-quality raw material. Quarry managers usually come up with uncertainty-related raw materials due to variations in chemical composition. These uncertainties required efficient planning in terms of useful insight into this problem. This research provides a detailed explanation of scenario analysis of raw materials used in cement manufacturing using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and indices. Scenario analysis is used to predict the possibility of best, worst and most likely cases of raw material’s quality. Whereas, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the inherent uncertainty associated with chemical composition values in order to analyze the impact of truly unpredictable scenarios. The predictive results help in decisions related to production planning, raw mix design optimization and increasing the probability of designing the best plan.

scholarly journals Sustainability of Extraction of Raw Material by a Combination of Mobile and Stationary Mining Machines and Optimization of Machine Life Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10454
Author(s):  
Katarína Teplická ◽  
Martin Straka
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Optimal Distribution ◽  
Transport Costs ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Conveyor Belts ◽  
The Impact

This article summarizes the arguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of using mining machines and their life cycle. The main goal of the article is to investigate the impact of a combination of mobile and stationary mining machines and their optimal distribution in the mining process to increase the efficiency of mining and processing of raw materials. The following methods of research were focused on the use of technical indicators for the valuation efficiency of the mining process: a simulation method was used for the distribution of mining machines, comparison analysis was used for the real and past state of mining machines, and a decision tree was used as managerial instrument for optimal alternatives of mining machines. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that optimal distribution of mining machines and machine parks is very important for mining companies. The benefit of this research for the mining company was the new location of the machines and the combination of stationary production lines and mobile equipment. The optimal layout of the machines reduced the number of conveyor belts and improved the transfer of limestone processing to mobile devices, saving time, which was reflected in transport costs. The results can be useful for other mining companies seeking to create an optimal machine park.

IMPACT OF INNOVATIVE METHOD OF PREPARING TOBACCO LEAVES FOR DRYING ON THE BASIC PARAMETERS OF QUALITY OF TOBACCO RAW MATERIAL

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Е.Е. Ульянченко
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Tobacco Leaves ◽  
Commercial Grade ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Basic Parameters

Исследовано влияние приема прорезания средней жилки на основные качественные показатели табачного сырья. Исследования проводили на листьях основных сортотипов табака Трапезонд и Остролист по массовым ломкам. Прорезание жилки осуществляли на инновационном оборудовании экспериментальном образце линии подготовки листьев табака к сушке ЛПТС360 (ВНИИТТИ, Краснодар). Качество табачного сырья с прорезанной жилкой определяли по товарным сортам, технологическим и курительным свойствам, химическому составу по методикам лабораторного контроля ВНИИТТИ. Инновационный способ подготовки табака к сушке в едином потоке с применением технологического оборудования, включающего прорезатель, выявил положительный технологический результат. Установлена эффективность приема прорезания средней жилки: срок естественной сушки листьев с прорезанной жилкой сократился в 2,5 раза выход 1го товарного сорта сырья составил 74,60 87,93 выход волокна сырья с прорезанной жилкой превышает минимальное значение технологических норм (75) в 1,15 1,26 раз условный расход сырья на единицу курительных изделий меньше норматива на 6 25 улучшен основной показатель химического состава табачного сырья (число Шмука) в 1,6 4,6 раза у сортотипа Трапезонд, в 1,2 1,5 раза у сортотипа Остролист дегустационные свойства сырья не ухудшились. Инновационный способ подготовки листьев табака к сушке, включающий прием прорезания средней жилки, рекомендуется для применения в производстве табачного сырья. The influence of middle vein cutting method on the main quality indicators of tobacco raw materials is studied. Studies were carried out on the leaves of the main varieties of tobacco Trapezond and Ostrolist, on mass breakdowns. Vein cutting was carried out on the innovative equipment of the line of preparation of tobacco leaves for drying LPTS360 (GNU VNIITTI RAA, Krasnodar). The quality of tobacco raw materials with a cut vein was determined by commercial grades, technological and Smoking properties, chemical composition in accordance with the methods VNIITTI. An innovative method of preparing tobacco for drying in a single stream with the use of technological equipment, including a cutter, revealed a positive technological result. The period of natural drying of leaves with cut veins decreased by 2,5 times. The yield of the 1st commercial grade of raw materials was 74,60 87,93. The output of the fiber raw material with cut vein exceeds the minimum value of technological norms (75) in 1,15 1,26 times. Conditional consumption of raw materials per unit of Smoking products is less than the norm by 6 25. The method of cutting the middle vein of the leaves improves the main indicator in the chemical composition of tobacco raw materials (Schmuck ratio) 1,6 4,6 times in the variety Trapezond and 1,2 1,5 times in the variety Ostrolist. The tasting properties of raw materials have not deteriorated. Analysis of raw material quality indicators showed that the innovative method of cutting the middle vein is effective and recommended for use in the production of tobacco raw materials.

Influence of flour from oilseed meal on sugars content in rye bread

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 57-68
Author(s):  
Halyna Voloshchuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Mass Fraction ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Sugar Content ◽  
Jerusalem Artichoke ◽  
Oilseed Meal ◽  
Rye Bread ◽  
Rye Flour ◽  
Pumpkin Seeds ◽  
The Impact

Subject of research – sugar content in rye bread with fractionally defatted flour from walnuts, pumpkin seeds, sesame and Jerusalem artichoke powder. The purpose – to investigate the chemical composition of sugars in flour from oilseed meal and to explain the impact of new raw materials upon the sugar content in bread made from rye flour. Materials and methods. For the production of pilot of bread used: rye flour; fermented rye malt; table salt; drinking water; ready liquid rye sourdough (composition: Lactobacillus plantarum 30, L .casei 26, L. fermenti 34, L .brevis and Saccharomyces minor "Chernorichenskaya", S. cerevisiae L1); fractionally defatted flour from walnuts, pumpkin seeds and sesame produced by PE "Research and Production Company "Elitfito"; Jerusalem artichoke powder "Dar". The dough was prepared in a three-phase way: liquid sourdough – saccharified choux – dough. Jerusalem artichoke powder and oilseed meal were added to the dough. The chemical composition of sugars in raw materials and bread was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. The effect of fractionally defatted flour on the course of processes in rye dough was performed on a farinograph and amylograph of Brabender. The intensity of gas formation of the dough was determined on the device AG-1. Changes in the crystal structure of the bread crumb were performed using X-ray phase analysis on the device DRON UM-1 in the range of angles 2θ from 5 to 60 degrees. Results. It is established that the share of sugars in flour from oilseed meal is 2 ... 8 times higher than the content of sugars in rye flour. The content of sugars in fractionally defatted flour from walnuts is 43.0 %, from pumpkin seeds – 14.2 %, from sesame – 12.8% by weight of dry matter. Up to 80% of all sugars in fractionally defatted flour are sucrose and maltose. The ratio of fructose to glucose in fractionally defatted flour from walnuts is 1:1.25; from pumpkin seeds – 1:0.73; of sesame seeds – 1:0.5. The addition of 7.0 % fractionally defatted flour mixed with 3 % of the Jerusalem artichoke powder reduces the mass fraction of sugars in bread compared to the bread made with Jerusalem artichoke only. It has been studied that fractionally defatted flour from walnuts, pumpkin seeds and sesame reduces the hydrolytic decomposition of rye flour starch and promotes the process of fermentation of sugars. Scope. A mixture of fractionally defatted flour from oilseed meal in the amount of 7 % should be used for the production of bread from rye flour with 3 % Jerusalem artichoke powder to the mass fraction of flour to reduce the content of high glycemic starch sugars.

scholarly journals UNCERTAINTY OF BATHYMETRY MODELS AND EFFECT ON TSUNAMI MODELS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepulveda ◽  
Jennifer S. Haase ◽  
Philip L.-F. Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Brook Tozer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Random Field ◽  
Field Model ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Response Uncertainty ◽  
Random Field Model ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
The Impact

We describe the uncertainties of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models and then quantify the impact of this uncertainty in tsunami hazard assessments. The study consists of three stages. First, we study the statistics of errors of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models. Second, we employ these statistics to propose a random field model for errors anywhere. Third, we use bathymetry samples to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation and describe the tsunami response uncertainty. We found that bathymetry uncertainties have a greater impact in shallow areas. We also noted that tsunami leading waves are less affected by uncertainties.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/zzL_XWWAQ7o

scholarly journals PERENCANAAN BAHAN BAKU DAN HASIL PRODUKSI MENGGUNAKAN METODE LINIER PROGRAMMING SIMPLEK

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Handayani ◽  
Eka Kusuma Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Simplex Method ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Testing System ◽  
Basic Solution ◽  
Linear Programming Method

<p>CV. Baja Utama Landasan Ulin is a business entity that manufactures various products using the basic ingredients of iron. In the management of raw materials for the production of common regulatory process raw materials into sections for further processing. This setting is often done manually without doing careful planning, so that at the end of each production process there are many remaining pieces of the raw materials that should be used in production. In addition to the determination of the production is necessary to reference how the product should be made for each type of existing products. This is often an important factor that pushed for the optimization of production planning in determining the number of products for each type of product and raw material consumption.Linear Programming is one of the methods used in production planning to regulate the use of raw materials is limited. Simplex method is part of the linear programming method that can be used in the production planning system implementation. Simplex method identifies an initial basic solution and then move systematically to other basic solution that has the potential to improve the value of the objective function.The calculation result of production planning using the simplex method can be used as a reference in the decision making production planning. By building an application using the simplex method can assist in the calculation of production peencanaan more efficiently and effectively. Accuracy testing system constructed show significant results with great value reached 94% level of accuracy.<br />Keywords: simplex, production planning, the maximum gain, linear programming</p>

scholarly journals Changes in the Portfolio Management and Construction under the Pandemic Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Ruipeng Tan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Portfolio Construction ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
The Impact

This paper focuses on comparing portfolio management and construction before and after the coronavirus. First, this paper presents the importance of building up portfolios for investors to diversify their risks. Theories on portfolio management are discussed in this section to show how they have been developed to help on investing and reduce risk. Then, the paper moves on to show the impact of the pandemic on the financial market and portfolio management. Sample data on tech stock returns are collected to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on portfolio construction to find out the efficient portfolio before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The efficient portfolio is build based on the Markowitz theory to find the combination. Comparisons between these portfolio constructions are made to find out the changes in portfolio management and construction under the pandemic era. In conclusion, this paper presents how pandemic has changed and impacted the investments and lists recommendations on future portfolio management and construction.

scholarly journals Social-network-based water supply network sectorization methodology using monte carlo simulation to predict economical and operational benefits

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Enrique Campbell ◽  
Amilkar Illaya-Ayza ◽  
Joaquín Izquierdo ◽  
Rafael Pérez-García ◽  
Idel Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Management ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Water Supply Network (WSN) sectorization is a broadly known technique aimed at enhancing water supply management. In general, existing methodologies for sectorization of WSNs are limited to assessment of the impact of its implementation over reduction of background leakage, underestimating increased capacity to detect new leakage events and undermining appropriate investment substantiation. In this work, we raise this issue and put in place a methodology to optimize sectors' design. To this end, we carry out a novel combination of the Short Run Economic Leakage Level concept (SRELL- corresponding to leakage level that can occur in a WSN in a certain period of time and whose reparation would be more costly than the benefits that can be obtained). With a non-deterministic optimization method based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in combination with Monte Carlo simulation. As an example of application, methodology is implemented over a 246 km pipe-long WSN, reporting 72 397 $/year as net profit.

Benchmarking Fuel Economy of Connected and Automated Vehicles in Real World Driving Conditions via Monte Carlo Simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreshta Rajakumar Deshpande ◽  
Shobhit Gupta ◽  
Dennis Kibalama ◽  
Nicola Pivaro ◽  
Marcello Canova
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Fuel Economy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Driver Model ◽  
Traffic Information ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Instrumented Vehicle ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Connectivity and automation have accelerated the development of algorithms that use route and real-time traffic information for improving energy efficiency. The evaluation of such benefits, however, requires establishing a reliable baseline that is representative of a real-world driving environment. In this context, virtual driver models are generally adopted to predict the vehicle speed based on route data and presence of lead vehicles, in a way that mimics the response of human drivers. This paper proposes an Enhanced Driver Model (EDM) that forecasts the human response when driving in urban conditions, considering the effects of Signal Phasing and Timing (SPaT) by introducing the concept of Line-of-Sight (LoS). The model was validated against data collected on an instrumented vehicle driven on public roads by different human subjects. Using this model, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to determine the statistical distribution of fuel consumption and travel time on a given route, varying driver behavior (aggressiveness), traffic conditions and SPaT. This allows one to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated to real-world driving in fuel economy estimates.

Problems of sustainability of production of the agro-industrial complex of the West Kazakhstan region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Б.Т. Базарова ◽  
Б.Қ. Копбулсынова ◽  
Ж.А. Аймешева ◽  
B. Bazarova ◽  
B. Kopbulsynova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
The West ◽  
Processing Industry ◽  
West Kazakhstan ◽  
The Impact

Батыс Қазақстан облысындағы кәсіпорындардың эволюциясы экономикалық дамудың жалпы циклдік сипатына байланысты да, әр түрлі сыртқы және ішкі факторлардың осы салаға әсер етуінен, сондай-ақ даму процесінде сөзсіз ауытқулар салдарынан ауытқуларға ұшырайды. Батыс Қазақстан облысының аймақтық агроөнеркәсіптік кешенін тұрақты дамытудың басымдықтары талдау арқылы анықталуы керек. Зерттеудің мақсаты - Батыс Қазақстан облысының агроөнеркәсіптік кешенінің тиімді және тұрақты дамуын зерттеу болып табылады. Бұл тақырыпты зерттеу кезінде статистикалық-экономикалық әдіс, талдау және синтез қолданылды. Ауылшаруашылық кешенінің жеке аймақ ретінде тұрақты дамуы да, жалпы елдің де дамуы ауылшаруашылық кешенінің тұрақты қалыптасуынсыз мүмкін емес, себебі оның түпкі өнімі қайта өңдеу өнеркәсібі болып табылады, ал оның мақсаты - талаптарына сай халықты сапалы өніммен қамтамасыз ету. Талдау көрсеткендей, ауылшаруашылық өндірісінің қазіргі жағдайы, қолайсыз факторлардың әсерінің күшеюімен сипатталады, ең алдымен табиғи факторлардың өндірісінде, жалпы өсімдік шаруашылығы өнімінің жылдық айырмашылықтарын тудырады, және өз кезегінде мал шаруашылығындағы ауытқуларға әкеледі, сонымен қатар оның әсері өңдеуші салаларда сезіледі, ал бұл өнеркәсіптің шикізаты болып табылады. Зертеу барысында 2015 жылдан бастап Батыс Қазақстан облысының аумағында ауыл шаруашылығы өнімдері өндірісінің күрт төмендегені анықталды, бұл жалпы, сондай-ақ өсімдік шаруашылығы мен мал шаруашылығы салалары бойынша да өндіріс тұрақтылығының төмендеуіне әкелді, және ол бүгінгі күнге дейін жалғасуда. Агроөнеркәсіптік кешеннің шикізат саласындағы өндіріс тұрақтылығының төмендеуі қайта өңдеу өнеркәсібі өнімдерін өндіруде ауытқулардың артуына әкеліп соқтырды, бұның нәтижесінде халыққа азық-түлік өнімдерін ұсынуда тұрақсыздық пайда болды. Батыс Қазақстан облысының АӨК-ін оның салаларының өнімділігі мен кірістілігін арттыруға бағытталған одан әрі дамыту өндірісті жаңғыртуды және қайта жарақтандыруды, оның инфрақұрылымын дамытуды және салалық кластерлерді қалыптастыруды талап етеді. Кілт сөздер: агроөнеркәсіп кешені, тербеліс, аграрлық сектор, өндіріс, халық саны, агротехника, экономика, талдау, өнімдер, өсімдік шаруашылығы. The evolution of enterprise in the West Kazakhstan region is subject to fluctuations due to both the general cyclical nature of economic development and the impact of various external and internal factors on this industry, as also fluctuations unavoidable in the evolution process. The priorities for sustainable evolution of the regional agro-industrial complex of the West Kazakhstan region should be identified through analysis. The goal of the research is to study the effective and sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex of the West Kazakhstan region. Through studies this topic, the statistical-economic method, analysis and synthesis were used. Sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex of both a particular region and the country as a whole is impossible without the stable functioning of its core - agriculture, the final product of which is used by the processing industry, whose goal is to provide the population with high-quality products in volumes that meet their requirements. Current state of agricultural production, as the analysis shows, is characterized by an increase in the influence of unfavorable factors on production, first of all natural ones, which cause annual differences in the production of gross crop production, which, in turn, convey fluctuations to the livestock industry and, as a result, affects the processing industries. it is the raw material of the industry. In the course of the study, it was found that, since 2015, in the territory of the West Kazakhstan region, there has been a sharp decline in agricultural production, which led to a decrease in the stability of production in general, and in the fields of crop and livestock production, which continues to the present. A decrease in the sustainability of production in the raw materials sector of the agro-industrial complex entailed an increase in fluctuations in the production of products of the processing industry, which ultimately resulted in the emergence of an instability in the supply of food to the population. Further development of the agro-industrial complex of the West Kazakhstan region, aimed at increasing the productivity and profitability of its industries, requires the modernization and re-equipment of production, the development of its infrastructure and the formation of industry clusters.

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