scholarly journals The Effect of Oil Price on China’s Grain Prices: a VAR model

2021 ◽  
pp. 91-100
Author(s):  
Jingye Li
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Grain Prices

In recent years, the simultaneous trend of crude oil prices and agricultural prices has gained numerous attention of policy makers and market participants. This paper uses a vector autoregression model to examine the impact of the international crude oil prices on China’s grain prices including wheat, maize, soybean and rice during the period from June 2004 to December 2018. Empirical results indicates that international crude oil prices have a positive and significant impact on China’s grain prices. The response of grain prices would gradually decline to zero after reaching its maximum. Among these grain prices, the response of maize and soybean prices to crude oil prices is stronger than the rice and wheat prices. The error variance decomposition results show that most of the volatility in all price variables can be explained by own shocks, even though the fluctuation of grain prices are all affected by crude oil prices. JEL classification numbers: O13 Keywords: Oil prices, Grain prices, VAR, Variance decomposition.

scholarly journals GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE AND DOMESTIC FOOD COMMODITY PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-120
Author(s):  
Tiara Kencana Ayu
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Local Food ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Commodity

Abstrak Penelitian untuk menganalisis hubungan antara harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi pangan di pasar domestik masih jarang ditemukan. Dengan membuat Model Panel Data dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia pada tahun 2010-2017, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi pengaruh perubahan harga minyak dunia terhadap beberapa harga komoditi pangan lokal (kedelai,import, kedelai lokal, beras lokal, dan jagung lokal). Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa harga minyak dunia dapat memengaruhi harga pangan lokal di Indonesia melalui tingginya biaya pengiriman pada aktivitas impor. Selain itu, harga komoditi pangan dunia juga terbukti dapat memengaruhi harga seluruh komoditi pangan lokal yang diteliti, yang mengimplikasikan bahwa harga komoditi pangan di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh kondisi pasar internasional. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan masukan bagi pembuat kebijakan di Indonesia untuk mempertimbangkan perubahan harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi global dalam menstabilkan harga komoditi lokal di Indonesia, terutama komoditi yang diimpor.   Abstract Globally, studies examining the nexus between global crude oil prices and food commodity prices in domestic markets are scant. Employing a panel data model of 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2010 - 2017, this study investigates the impact of global crude oil’s price change on some local food commodity prices (imported soybean, local soybean, local rice, and local maize). Previous studies found that local food commodity prices in some countries were not affected by global crude oil prices; however, this study, by controlling other factors which could affect local commodity prices, finds different results. This study’s findings indicate that global crude oil prices could affect Indonesia’s local commodity prices due to higher shipping costs in import activity. In addition, global commodity prices are also proved to affect all commodities examined in this study, which implies that local food commodity prices in Indonesia are influenced by the international market. This study provides input to policymakers in Indonesia to consider the movement of global crude oil prices and global commodity prices in stabilizing local food commodity prices in Indonesia, especially the imported commodities. JEL Classification: F15, O13, Q11

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERING ISRAEL CAPITAL CITY TO JERUSALEM TOWARD INDONESIA MACRO ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Liliek Nur Sulistiyowati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

United States President Donald Trump has just issued a controversial policy by giving Jerusalem recognition as the capital of Israel. This controversial policy triggered a strong reaction from a number of countries, especially Islamic countries including Indonesia. Indonesia through President Jokowidodo strongly condemned the policy of moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem because it would disrupt political and security stability in the Middle East region. In the midst of the political impact caused by President Donald Trump's policies also affected the global economy. The world stock exchanges reacted immediately with the existence of these policies, one of which was the fall of the stock market index in Japan and South Korea due to investor concerns. The impact of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump also affected the Indonesian economy. This policy will affect the financial markets and capital markets in Indonesia. Trump's policy triggered an increase in the US $ exchange rate against the currencies of other countries including the Indonesian currency. Some of the negative effects on the Indonesian economy were the increase in world crude oil prices. Indonesia is currently no longer an oil exporting country, so that with the increase in world crude oil prices it will provide a fiscal burden in the State Budget (APBN). Fuel subsidies in the state budget will increase along with the increase in world crude oil prices that occur. In addition to the impact on the rupiah exchange rate against the US $, Donald Trump's policy also affects the inflation rate and the SBI interest rate. Through 2018, Bank Indonesia has raised the SBI interest rate by 150 basis points (bps) or 1.5%. The BI Governor explained that one reason for changing the benchmark interest rate was US monetary policy. The determination of high SBI interest rates also had an effect on reducing inflationary pressures. This study aims to look at the influence of President Donald Trump's policies regarding the transfer of the Israeli capital to Jerusalem against Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are seen from 3 variables, such as the inflation rate, SBI interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate against US $ Key words :  Donald Trump, inflation, SBI interest rates, exchange rates / exchange rates  

scholarly journals Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, And Inflation Expectations In South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 587
Author(s):  
Kin Sibanda ◽  
Progress Hove ◽  
Genius Murwirapachena
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

Informed inflation expectations facilitate the extemporisation of a proper monetary policy framework that allows for the achievement of economic objectives, among them price stability. This study used the vector autoregression model to assess the impact of crude oil prices and exchange rates on inflation expectations in South Africa. Monthly time-series data for the period July 2002 to March 2013, obtained from the electronic database of the South African Reserve Bank were used. The study obtained statistically significant results suggesting that both crude oil prices and the exchange rates have a positive impact on inflation expectations in South Africa.

The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 162-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derya Ezgi Kayalar ◽  
C. Coşkun Küçüközmen ◽  
A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of COVID-19 surveillance variables over the international oil market

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Alshdadi et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has turned to be an alarm for the whole world both in terms of health and economics. It is striking the global economy and increasing the unpredictability of the financial market in several ways. Significantly, the pandemic spread stimulated the social distancing which led to the lockdown of the countries’ businesses, financial markets, and daily life events. International oil markets have accommodated the crude oil prices during the early COVID-19 period. However, after the first 50 days, Saudi Arabia has surged the market with oil, which caused a certain decrease in crude oil prices, internationally. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. International trade is based on oil reservoirs which in turn, have been significantly dislodged by the pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to study the impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The daily crude oil price data is used to analyze the impact of daily price fluctuation over COVID-19 surveillance variables. The correlation between surveillance variables and international crude oil prices is calculated and analyzed. Consequently, the project will help in stabilizing the expected world economic crises and particularly will provide the implications for the policymakers in the oil market.

Projection of the Impact of Climate Change on Crude Oil Prices Based on Relevance Vector Machine

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1162-1170
Author(s):  
Lubna Abdelkareim Gabralla
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Support Vectors ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

We propose an alternative algorithm referred to RVM (relevance vector machine) to circumvent the support vector machine’s (SVM) unnecessary use of basic functions, a large number of support vectors, lack of probabilistic prediction, and longer time computation complexity (TCC). Global annual land-ocean average temperature (GASAT) data and WTI oil market price data extracted from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration US and the US Energy Administration, respectively. The data were preprocessed and used to build RVM models. To evaluate the proposed RVM, its performance was compared to that of a SVM. The results were validated using ANOVA. A significant correlation between the two datasets was found. The relevance vectors for the RVM were significantly less than the support vectors for the SVM, and the TCC for the RVM was significantly better than the TCC for the SVM. The prediction accuracy of both the RVM and the SVM were found to be statistically equal. The RVM model was able to project the impact of GASAT on WTI crude oil prices from 2014 to 2023. The projection can be used by intergovernmental organizations to formulate a global response to combat WTI crude oil price negative impact, which is expected to worsen in the next decade.

Analyzing the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Vietnam Stock Market

2018 ◽  
pp. 229-245
Author(s):  
Huynh Viet Khai ◽  
Le Minh Sang ◽  
Phan Thi Anh Nguyet
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This chapter covers a study that was conducted to find out the impact of crude oil prices on the Vietnam stock market in the period from March 2006 to June 2015 by using the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model with dummy variables of the economic crisis. The results revealed that the crude oil prices had positive impacts on VN-Index and HNX-Index in short-run, but negatively in long-run. In addition, the study also found that the economic crisis has affected the relationship between the crude oil prices and the stock market index in the short-run. During the crisis period, the crude oil prices related to the VN-Index and HNX-index more closely than the other stages. However, in the long-run the relationship between oil prices and stock market index was not affected by the economic crisis.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document