أثـر تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام على الصادرات غیـر النفطیة فی المملکة العربیة السعودیة The Impact of Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices on Non-oil Exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has turned to be an alarm for the whole world both in terms of health and economics. It is striking the global economy and increasing the unpredictability of the financial market in several ways. Significantly, the pandemic spread stimulated the social distancing which led to the lockdown of the countries’ businesses, financial markets, and daily life events. International oil markets have accommodated the crude oil prices during the early COVID-19 period. However, after the first 50 days, Saudi Arabia has surged the market with oil, which caused a certain decrease in crude oil prices, internationally. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. International trade is based on oil reservoirs which in turn, have been significantly dislodged by the pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to study the impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The daily crude oil price data is used to analyze the impact of daily price fluctuation over COVID-19 surveillance variables. The correlation between surveillance variables and international crude oil prices is calculated and analyzed. Consequently, the project will help in stabilizing the expected world economic crises and particularly will provide the implications for the policymakers in the oil market.

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Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies ◽

10.24311/jabes/2015.22.4.02 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 22 (04) ◽

pp. 26-50

Author(s):

Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽

Huong Pham Hoang Cam

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Error Correction ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Domestic Credit ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

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LONG RUN ASSOCIATION OF STOCK PRICES AND CRUDE OIL PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SAUDI ARABIA

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ◽

10.32479/ijeep.8881 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 124-131

Author(s):

Abdul Rahman

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Long Run

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Iran nuclear deal could test European unity

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db233512 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

National Security ◽

Financial Institutions ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Content Type ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

European Unity ◽

Oil Exports ◽

Trading Partners

Significance The recent appointments of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton, both critics of the deal, could contribute to Trump’s willingness to withdraw -- despite progress in consultations between Washington and its European allies to address US concerns. Impacts The reluctance of financial institutions to enter Iran’s market makes it difficult for firms to secure financing for their Iran operations. US secondary sanctions would have a particularly negative impact on Iran’s top European trading partners: Italy, France, Germany and Spain. A snapback of US sanctions would cut Iranian oil exports and push up crude oil prices.

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THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERING ISRAEL CAPITAL CITY TO JERUSALEM TOWARD INDONESIA MACRO ECONOMY

EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan) ◽

10.24034/j25485024.y2019.v3.i2.4111 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 260-282

Author(s):

Liliek Nur Sulistiyowati

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Donald Trump ◽

State Budget ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

The Impact

United States President Donald Trump has just issued a controversial policy by giving Jerusalem recognition as the capital of Israel. This controversial policy triggered a strong reaction from a number of countries, especially Islamic countries including Indonesia. Indonesia through President Jokowidodo strongly condemned the policy of moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem because it would disrupt political and security stability in the Middle East region. In the midst of the political impact caused by President Donald Trump's policies also affected the global economy. The world stock exchanges reacted immediately with the existence of these policies, one of which was the fall of the stock market index in Japan and South Korea due to investor concerns. The impact of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump also affected the Indonesian economy. This policy will affect the financial markets and capital markets in Indonesia. Trump's policy triggered an increase in the US $ exchange rate against the currencies of other countries including the Indonesian currency. Some of the negative effects on the Indonesian economy were the increase in world crude oil prices. Indonesia is currently no longer an oil exporting country, so that with the increase in world crude oil prices it will provide a fiscal burden in the State Budget (APBN). Fuel subsidies in the state budget will increase along with the increase in world crude oil prices that occur. In addition to the impact on the rupiah exchange rate against the US $, Donald Trump's policy also affects the inflation rate and the SBI interest rate. Through 2018, Bank Indonesia has raised the SBI interest rate by 150 basis points (bps) or 1.5%. The BI Governor explained that one reason for changing the benchmark interest rate was US monetary policy. The determination of high SBI interest rates also had an effect on reducing inflationary pressures. This study aims to look at the influence of President Donald Trump's policies regarding the transfer of the Israeli capital to Jerusalem against Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are seen from 3 variables, such as the inflation rate, SBI interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate against US $ Key words : Donald Trump, inflation, SBI interest rates, exchange rates / exchange rates

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GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE AND DOMESTIC FOOD COMMODITY PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan ◽

10.30908/bilp.v14i1.406 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 95-120

Author(s):

Tiara Kencana Ayu

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Local Food ◽

Price Change ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

The Impact ◽

Food Commodity

Abstrak Penelitian untuk menganalisis hubungan antara harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi pangan di pasar domestik masih jarang ditemukan. Dengan membuat Model Panel Data dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia pada tahun 2010-2017, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi pengaruh perubahan harga minyak dunia terhadap beberapa harga komoditi pangan lokal (kedelai,import, kedelai lokal, beras lokal, dan jagung lokal). Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa harga minyak dunia dapat memengaruhi harga pangan lokal di Indonesia melalui tingginya biaya pengiriman pada aktivitas impor. Selain itu, harga komoditi pangan dunia juga terbukti dapat memengaruhi harga seluruh komoditi pangan lokal yang diteliti, yang mengimplikasikan bahwa harga komoditi pangan di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh kondisi pasar internasional. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan masukan bagi pembuat kebijakan di Indonesia untuk mempertimbangkan perubahan harga minyak dunia dan harga komoditi global dalam menstabilkan harga komoditi lokal di Indonesia, terutama komoditi yang diimpor. Abstract Globally, studies examining the nexus between global crude oil prices and food commodity prices in domestic markets are scant. Employing a panel data model of 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2010 - 2017, this study investigates the impact of global crude oil’s price change on some local food commodity prices (imported soybean, local soybean, local rice, and local maize). Previous studies found that local food commodity prices in some countries were not affected by global crude oil prices; however, this study, by controlling other factors which could affect local commodity prices, finds different results. This study’s findings indicate that global crude oil prices could affect Indonesia’s local commodity prices due to higher shipping costs in import activity. In addition, global commodity prices are also proved to affect all commodities examined in this study, which implies that local food commodity prices in Indonesia are influenced by the international market. This study provides input to policymakers in Indonesia to consider the movement of global crude oil prices and global commodity prices in stabilizing local food commodity prices in Indonesia, especially the imported commodities. JEL Classification: F15, O13, Q11

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The Impact of Manufacturing Industries on Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during (1990- 2018): أثر الصناعات التحويلية على النمو الاقتصادي في المملكة العربية السعودية للفترة (1990- 2018)

المجلة العربية للعلوم ونشر الأبحاث مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية والقانونية ◽

10.26389/ajsrp.m301019 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Reem Saeed Al- Ghamdi, Maha Alandejani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Saudi Arabia ◽

Manufacturing Industries ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽

Unit Root Testing ◽

Oil Exports ◽

The Impact

The study examined the effect of the impact of manufacturing industries on the economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia، and to analyze the size of manufacturing growth and its contribution to economic growth. This study is based on the descriptive analytical approach to identify the development of manufacturing industries in Saudi Arabia and the size of its impact on the growth of the Saudi economy and also based on the methodology of standard analysis using time series data، and the application of unit root testing and common integration and multiple linear regression by applying an Ordinary Least Square (OLS)، to examine the relationship between the rate of economic growth، the rate of GDP of manufacturing، the rate of oil exports، the rate of industrial loans، and the rate of exports of manufacturing industries. The results indicate to negative impact of manufacturing industries، oil exports and industrial exports on economic growth in the long term، despite their positive impact in the short term and the existence of a direct correlation between the rate of growth of oil exports and economic growth in the short term، and the inverse relationship of industrial loans and industrial exports on economic growth. The study summarized several recommendations، including that decision-makers need to pay attention to manufacturing industries and oil exports taking into account the long- term risks of global oil markets and import prices، and the adoption of more extensive policies with regard to industrial loans and maximize industrial exports to affect economic growth positively.

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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, And Inflation Expectations In South Africa

International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) ◽

10.19030/iber.v14i4.9351 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 587

Author(s):

Kin Sibanda ◽

Progress Hove ◽

Genius Murwirapachena

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Policy Framework ◽

Series Data ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

The Impact

Informed inflation expectations facilitate the extemporisation of a proper monetary policy framework that allows for the achievement of economic objectives, among them price stability. This study used the vector autoregression model to assess the impact of crude oil prices and exchange rates on inflation expectations in South Africa. Monthly time-series data for the period July 2002 to March 2013, obtained from the electronic database of the South African Reserve Bank were used. The study obtained statistically significant results suggesting that both crude oil prices and the exchange rates have a positive impact on inflation expectations in South Africa.

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COVID-19 Deaths Cases Impact on Oil Prices: Probable Scenarios on Saudi Arabia Economy

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.620875 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Abdelmageed Algamdi ◽

Said Khalfa Mokhtar Brika ◽

Adam Musa ◽

Khalil Chergui

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Prices ◽

The United States ◽

Real Economy ◽

Sharp Drop ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Negative Effect ◽

The Usa

The purpose of this paper is to discuss death cases on the World, exacerbated investor fears, uncertainties, and increased volatility of crude oil prices in financial markets. The reaction absorbed the epidemic gradually until January 22. Still, the market situation changed soon with a sharp drop in prices, and prices slowly recovered after that until June 14. The data of this research using an econometric model, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), according to the Gets methodology, using daily data, January 22 –June 14, 2020. Our ARDL shows, the death ratio has a significant negative effect on oil price dynamics. However, the death ratio has an indirect impact on volatility in Crude Oil prices. The findings show that the death toll of COVID-19 has a significant impact on oil prices in Saudi Arabia (KSA). However, the preliminary results mainly influence by the situation reported in the USA. When we assess the case outside the USA, and we see the positive effect of the COVID-19 death figures on oil prices, therefore, stress the amplification of death-related risks to the financial market and the real economy, caused by increased, policy-induced economic uncertainty in the United States.

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