scholarly journals Covid-19 spread prediction and its correlation with social distancing, available health facilities using GIS mapping data models in Lahore, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Rafaqat Warda ◽  
Weiguo Song ◽  
Gill Kaif ◽  
Chuanli Huang ◽  
Shabbir Salman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Safety Issue ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
Gis Mapping ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Health Care Structure ◽  
Care Structure ◽  
Virus Spreading ◽  
And Control

Virus spreading and its mitigation is an important safety issue that has drawn wide attention of many countries and people. For researchers in this area, it is an interesting work to study virus spreading with safety theories and methods. In this paper, we worked on the spatial extent of SIR model, which considers the known facts of Covid-19 behavior i.e. its spreading extent with time, the total population of area concerned and dedicated health facilities. Also, a special relationship between Covid-19 cases and NLDI data driven by night-time satellite imagery is being discussed. Results predicted a huge gap between predicted and presently available facilities for number of hospitals, beds, and ventilators. Findings suggest that developing countries like our study area Lahore District, Pakistan needs to follow social distancing at immense level, which not only helps in reducing the numbers of infections and fatalities but also the time duration of the whole epidemic. Maps based on NLDI vales, predicted cases, hospitals and ventilators needs could be greatly helpful for policymakers to analyze situation and concentrate on areas which needs immediate attention. Dealing with the pandemic requires a pre-planned command and control structure that could make quick and informed decisions in the whole city. We recommend that the use of proper model prediction at Union Council level can help local government in policymaking related social distancing and healthcare systems. The decision of social distancing should be on time and like what percent of social distancing is needed, which tackle with the already available health care structure.

scholarly journals A health worker knowledge, attitudes and practices survey of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saiendhra Vasudevan Moodley ◽  
Muzimkhulu Zungu ◽  
Molebogeng Malotle ◽  
Kuku Voyi ◽  
Nico Claassen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Health Worker ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Health workers are crucial to the successful implementation of infection prevention and control strategies to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at healthcare facilities. The aim of our study was to determine SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control knowledge and attitudes of frontline health workers in four provinces of South Africa as well as explore some elements of health worker and health facility infection prevention and control practices. Methods A cross-sectional study design was utilised. The study population comprised both clinical and non-clinical staff working in casualty departments, outpatient departments, and entrance points of health facilities. A structured self-administered questionnaire was developed using the World Health Organization guidance as the basis for the knowledge questions. COVID-19 protocols were observed during data collection. Results A total of 286 health workers from 47 health facilities at different levels of care participated in the survey. The mean score on the 10 knowledge items was 6.3 (SD = 1.6). Approximately two-thirds of participants (67.4%) answered six or more questions correctly while less than a quarter of all participants (24.1%) managed to score eight or more. A knowledge score of 8 or more was significantly associated with occupational category (being either a medical doctor or nurse), age (< 40 years) and level of hospital (tertiary level). Only half of participants (50.7%) felt adequately prepared to deal with patients with COVD-19 at the time of the survey. The health workers displaying attitudes that would put themselves or others at risk were in the minority. Only 55.6% of participants had received infection prevention and control training. Some participants indicated they did not have access to medical masks (11.8%) and gloves (9.9%) in their departments. Conclusions The attitudes of participants reflected a willingness to engage in appropriate SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control practices as well as a commitment to be involved in COVID-19 patient care. Ensuring adequate infection prevention and control training for all staff and universal access to appropriate PPE were identified as key areas that needed to be addressed. Interim and final reports which identified key shortcomings that needed to be addressed were provided to the relevant provincial departments of health.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in South Korea: Proper timing for Easing Mask mandates after COVID-19 Vaccination

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yun-Jung Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proper Timing ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract As of 25 July 2021, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 1,422 new COVID-19 cases, 188,848 total cases, and 2.073 total deaths (1.10% fatality rates). Since the first SARS-CoV-2 case was reported, efforts to find a treatment and vaccine against COVID-19 have been widespread. Four vaccines are on the WHO’s emergency use listing and are approved of their usage; BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, and Ad26.COV2.S. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 need at least 14 days to achieve effectiveness. Thus, people should abide by prevention and control measures, including wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. However, a lot of new cases were reported after vaccinations, as many people did not follow the prevention control measures before the end of the 14 days period. There is no doubt we need to break free from mask mandates. But let us not decide the timing in haste. Even if the mask mandates are eased, they should be changed depending on the number of reported cases, vaccinations, as well as prevention and control measures on how circumstances are changing under the influence of mutant coronavirus.

scholarly journals Simple mathematical models for controlling COVID-19 transmission through social distancing and community awareness

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed S. Elgazzar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Small World ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Community Awareness ◽  
Sufficient Degree ◽  
And Control

Abstract The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. Also, its origin is still mysterious. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19 taking into consideration social distancing and community awareness. Both situations of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous population were considered. Based on the calculations, a sufficient degree of social distancing based on its reproductive ratio is found to be effective in controlling COVID-19, even in the absence of a vaccine. With a vaccine, social distancing minimizes the sufficient vaccination rate to control the disease. Community awareness also has a great impact in eradicating the virus transmission. The model is simulated on small-world networks and the role of social distancing in controlling the infection is explained.

scholarly journals Therapeutic budget modelling: a possible road to budgetary allocations in the public health care setting

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
George K John ◽  
Martie S Lubbe ◽  
Jan HP Serfontein
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Care Setting ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Health Care Needs ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
The Public ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Health Care Structure ◽  
Care Structure

In South Africa, 70% of the country’s population is dependent on the public health care sector (especially the primary health care structure) for their basic health care needs. Opsomming In Suid-Afrika is 70% van die land se bevolking van die openbare gesondheidsorgsektor (veral die primêre gesondheidsorgstruktuur) afhanklik vir hulle basiese behoeftes aan gesondheidsorg. *Please note: This is a reduced version of the abstract. Please refer to PDF for full text.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Infection, Prevention and Control Program in Goromonzi District, Zimbabwe, 2018: A process outcome evaluation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Govha Emmanuel ◽  
Zizhou Simukai Tirivanhu ◽  
Shambira Gerald ◽  
Gombe Tafara Notion ◽  
Tsitsi Juru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Facility ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Outcome Evaluation ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Hiv Test ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background A healthcare-associated infection (HAI) is defined as an infection originating in the environment of a health facility that was not present or incubating at the time of patient admission. HAIs can be prevented through infection, prevention and control (IPC) measures. No hazard identification and risk assessment IPC rounds and monthly meetings were conducted in Goromonzi district since 1st of January to 30th of June 2018. No trainings nor orientation for the new employees was conducted. We therefore evaluated Goromonzi District IPC program. Methods A process-outcome evaluation using the logic model was conducted in Goromonzi district’s 15 health facilities. Checklists, interviewer administered questionnaires and key informant guides were used to collect data on availability of inputs, knowledge of health workers, processes performed, outputs and outcomes achieved. Data were entered into Epi Info 7TM, which was used to generate frequencies and proportions. Qualitative data from checklists and key informants interviews was sorted manually into themes and analysed. Results All 15 health facilities had adequate stocks of HIV test kits and PEP kits. Adequate bins and detergents were found in only 3/15 (20%) of health facilities. All facilities failed to hold a single IPC meeting and none had specific budget for IPC in 2018. No IPC mentorship activities were carried out in the district. Only 7/13 (54%) health workers who had needle pricks received PEP with 2/7 (29%) of them finishing the course. No health facility had a functional HAI surveillance system. The overall knowledge rating was fair. Conclusion The IPC program inputs in Goromonzi district were inadequate hence its failure to achieve the intended outputs and outcomes. Inadequate knowledge, unavailability of health worker training plans, specific budgets and absence of IPC committees reflected non prioritisation of the program.

scholarly journals Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl L. Chang ◽  
Nathan Harding ◽  
Cameron Zachreson ◽  
Oliver M. Cliff ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko
Keyword(s):  
Computational Simulation ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Level ◽  
And Control

Abstract There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-“lockdown” from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 2001483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Lonergan ◽  
James D. Chalmers
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
And Control ◽  
Doubling Times

By 21 May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) had caused more than 5 million cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) across more than 200 countries. Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or “lockdown” measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R0) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R0 before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R0 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73–0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.

Fuzzy Critical Path Method Based on a New Approach of Ranking Fuzzy Numbers using Centroid of Centroids

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Ravi Shankar ◽  
B. Pardha Saradhi ◽  
S. Suresh Babu
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Critical Path Method ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
Complex Projects ◽  
And Control ◽  
First Time

The Critical Path Method (CPM) is useful for planning and control of complex projects. The CPM identifies the critical activities in the critical path of an activity network. The successful implementation of CPM requires the availability of clear determined time duration for each activity. However, in practical situations this requirement is usually hard to fulfil since many of activities will be executed for the first time. Hence, there is always uncertainty about the time durations of activities in the network planning. This has led to the development of fuzzy CPM. In this paper, a new approach of ranking fuzzy numbers using centroid of centroids of fuzzy numbers to its distance from original point is proposed. The proposed method can rank all types of fuzzy numbers including crisp numbers with different membership functions. The authors apply the proposed ranking method to develop a new fuzzy CPM. The proposed method is illustrated with an example.

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