scholarly journals Volatility Modelling of Stock Returns in the Petroleum Marketing Sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-97
Author(s):  
Adolphus Toby ◽  
Glory Austen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Marketing Firms

Introduction: Financial markets play key role in the growth and sustainability of the economy. However, high levels of volatility in the markets may adversely affect the financial system and weaken the economy. Purpose: This paper examined the presence of volatility in the stock returns of the petroleum marketing sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange using ten petroleum marketing firms quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange for a period of twenty-four months that is from January 2017 to December 2018. Methodology: The study adopted empirical research design using time series data where ordinary least squares was employed to run the analysis through the use of ARCH/GARCH models. Findings: Among other results, it was seen that a unit increase in volatility (VLT) will lead to 0.006916 decrease in stock returns (STR). Also, the result of R-squared implies that about eight per cent (8%) of the changes in stock returns (STR) is captured by volatility (VLT) while the remaining ninety-two per cent (92%) of the variation in the model is captured by the error term. The ARCH effect observed is statistically significant. The coefficient of the GARCH effect which is significantly positive at 5% shows that past volatility of stock market return is significant and has effect on current volatility. Unique Contribution to theory, Practice and Policy: The implication of this is that an increase in volatility is linked to a significant increase of returns, which is an expected result and thus conforms to economic theory. The results of static and dynamic forecasting of GARCH volatility showed that the volatility is stable. As a result, investors can hold the stock. Among other things, the author recommends that Government should make sufficient regulatory effort that will improve efficiency of stocks performance and reduce volatility aimed at boosting investors’ confidence in the petroleum marketing sector and since the various ARCH and GARCH models showed volatility movement in stock returns, Nigerian government should look for new ways to diversify the economy from dependence on oil and explore other sectors like manufacturing sector and agricultural sector to reduce volatility in the economy and the overall effect on it.

scholarly journals The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volumes in Nepalese stock market

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-172
Author(s):  
Prem Lal Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

 In finance, the relationship between stock returns and trading volume has been the subject of extensive research over the past years. The main motivation for these studies is the central role that trading volume plays in the pricing of financial assets when new information comes in. As being interrelated and interdependent subjects, a study regarding the trading volume and stock returns seem to be vital. It is a well-researched area in developed markets. However, very few pieces of literature are available regarding the Nepalese stock market that explores the association between trading volume and stock return. Realizing this fact, this paper aims to examine the empirical relationship between trading volume and stock returns in the Nepalese stock market using time series data. The study sample is comprised of 49 stocks traded on the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) from mid-July 2011 to mid-July 2018. This study examines the Granger Causality relationship between stock returns and trading volume using the bivariate VAR model used by de Medeiros and Van Doornik (2008). The study found that the overall Nepalese stock market does not have a causal relationship between trading volume and return on the stock. In the case of sector-wise study, there is a unidirectional causality running from trading volume to stock returns in commercial banks and stock returns to trading volume in finance companies, hydropower companies, and insurance companies. There is no indication of any causal effect in the development bank, hotel, and other sectors. This study also finds that there is no evidence of bidirectional causality relationships in any sector of the Nepalese stock market.

scholarly journals Effect of Interest Rate on Stock Prices in Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1(S)) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Peter Arhenful ◽  
Augustine Kwadwo Yeboah ◽  
Kofi Sarfo Adjei
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Ghana Stock Exchange ◽  
Adf Test

The paper assesses the effect of interest rate on stock prices, with emphases on Ghana Stock Exchange; using monthly time series data from July 2007 to December 2019. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was employed to establish the stationarity properties of the data or otherwise. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique of Multiple Regression, the results (? = – 0.891, p < 0.05) revealed an indirect association between interest rates and stock prices in the Ghanaian context; which is consistent with the theoretical conclusion that an increase in interest rate results in a decrease in stock prices. Thus, in the light of this finding, it was recommended that policymakers should consider the stock market dynamics due to the significant relationship that exists between the two macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽  
Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Fahad Ali Khan ◽  
Muhammad Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

scholarly journals The Determinant of Indonesian Stock Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from Islamic and Conventional Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-296
Author(s):  
Septiana Indarwati ◽  
Agus Widarjono
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Islamic stock market is apparently different from the conventional stock market due to the prohibition of unlawful goods and excessive risk-taking behavior. This study explores the extent to which the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock returns' volatility responds to the macroeconomic indicators. This study employs Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and uses monthly time-series data covering 2001: M1 - 2019: M12. The volatility of stock returns is measured using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), the results validate the evidence of the long-run relationship between the stock market's volatility and macroeconomic variables. A rising in money supply and an economic upturn reduce the volatility of conventional stock returns but only an expansionary money supply diminishes the volatility of Islamic stock returns. Conversely, high inflation and sharp depreciation of the Rupiah boost the stock returns' volatility. The results further show an interesting finding that the Islamic stock market's volatility is more responsive to changes in macroeconomic indicators than the volatility of their counterpart conventional stock market. Policymakers should take strict rules during the worst economic conditions to minimize the negative impact of the instability of macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals Does Financial Liberalization Lead to Poverty Alleviation? New Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p22
Author(s):  
Onwuka Ifeanyi Onuka ◽  
Nwadiubu Anthony Odinakachukwu
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Bounds Testing

The study examined anew the empirical question of whether financial liberalization induces poverty alleviation. There is a theoretical expectation that liberalizing the financial market will lead to greater savings mobilization, greater access to credit facilities and poverty alleviation. Using a time-series data spanning 38 years (1980-2018), the study analyzed the effect of financial liberalization on credit availability to the private sector, the manufacturing sector especially the small & medium enterprises and the agricultural sector in Nigeria. The Bounds testing approach to co-integration employed within the framework of Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) was used to generate the coefficients. The coefficient of financial liberalization-though positive in all the parameter estimates, it is not significant. This lead us to the conclusion that despite the advantages of financial liberalization, its benefits is yet to bring about significant positive increases or changes in the volume of credit to the private sector and in poverty alleviation. Inferring upon this, we deduced that the continued liberalization of the financial system though indicating a positive long run impact on financial widening (or financial deepening as the case may be), its manifestation on quantum of credit to the private sector and on poverty alleviation is yet to be realized in Nigeria. The study recommended, amongst others, that government should re-think and re-tool the process in ways that will generate stability in the financial system and unleash the potentials of the process to generate greater savings and ultimately greater investment in the real sectors of the economy.

PENGARUH INFORMASI AKUNTANSI TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM (Studi Pada PerusahaanLQ-45 Di Bursa Efek Jakarta)

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Norsain ,
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Investment Returns

The use of financial information through the financial statements as a result of an accounting process in the company is an important information in analyzing investment returns in the long term. Through this analysis the investor will be able to assess the ability of a company's profitability, the quality of management performance, as well as future prospects of the company.               Data used in this study is panel data, which is a combination of cross section and time series data 45 company financial statements as sample the period 2010 to 2013. The data sources used mainly in this research is secondary data, including data in the form of documents and information relating to the object of a study published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange through the authority of Capital Market information Center accessed from the official website of the Stock Exchange.               Once the data is collected, the data were analyzed using Eviews program for this type of panel data. Beginning with the analysis of model selection, and then proceed with the classical assumption. The results of the study variables X1 Price Earning Ratio (PER), no effect on variable Y (stock returns), Variable X2 Price to Book Value (PBV) have a significant effect on the variable Y (stock returns), Variable X3 Return on Assets (ROA) significantly the variable Y (stock return). Simultaneously variable PER, PBV, ROA significant effect on the level of α = 10%.Keywords: PER, PBV, ROA, Stock Return

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure on Agricultural Value Chain in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 192-204
Author(s):  
Eneji Mathias Agri ◽  
Agri Angela Iyaji ◽  
Felix Nanwul Diyemang ◽  
Offorma Jecinta Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
The Impact

This research examined the impact of government expenditure on agricultural value chain in Nigeria. It uses annual time series data for the period 1998-2018. Statistical Techniques, survey, simple percentages and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods were adopted. The OLS result using Multiple Regression analysis revealed an insignificant positive relationship between government expenditure and Agricultural value chain, proxy by Aggregate importation of rice (AMR). Imports had a negative sign; it is a leakage on the economy. It however, showed that agricultural gross domestic product (ADP) has a positive relationship with government expenditure, at 5 percent level. The pair-wise Granger causality tests showed that government expenditure on agriculture (GEA) granger causes aggregate importation of rice (AMR), this was indicated by their respective F-statistics and probability values which stood at 0.39420(0.6815).. In conclusion, government expenditure, with supportive policies, would have huge impact on agricultural value chain in Nigeria. The agricultural sector is the engine of economic recovery, growth and development, therefore an improvement in government spending to the sector is recommended. This study contributes to the downstream linkages in the agricultural sector.

scholarly journals Stock Returns And Volatility İn An Emerging Equity Market. Evidence From Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ndwiga ◽  
Peter W Muriu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Cross Listing ◽  
Daily Returns

This study investigates volatility pattern of Kenyan stock market based on time series data which consists of daily closing prices of NSE Index for the period 2ndJanuary 2001 to 31st December 2014. The analysis has been done using both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. The study provides evidence for the existence of a positive and significant risk premium. Moreover, volatility shocks on daily returns at the stock market are transitory. We do not find any significant leverage effect. Introduction of the new regulations on foreign investors with a 25% minimum reserve of the issued share capital going to local investors (in 2002), introduction of live trading, cross listing in Uganda and Tanzania stock exchange (in 2006) and change in equity settlement cycle from T+4 to T+3 (in 2011) significantly reduce volatility clustering. The onset of US tapering increase the daily mean returns significantly while reducing conditional volatility.

scholarly journals The Effect of BI Rate, USD to IDR Exchange Rates, and Gold Price on Stock Returns Listed in the SRI KEHATI Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-47
Author(s):  
Oktavian Yodha Utama ◽  
Siti Puryandani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Total Data

This study aims to determine the effect of BI rate, USD to IDR exchange rates, and gold price on stock returns listed in the SRI KEHATI Index for the period January to December 2018. The population in this research is companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample is determined by using a purposive sampling method. Some criteria of the sample are companies that: had entered to the SRI KEHATI index respectively from January to December 2018, reported the 2018 monthly financial report, were not suspended by the IDX during the study period, so that obtained a sample of 23 companies with total data is 268. This study used quantitative data analysis in the form of time-series data from January to December 2018. The data collection method used in this study is the documentation method. The analytical tool in this study is the multiple regression analysis. In this study, data is processed by using the SPSS program 21. The results show that the BI rate has a significant positive effect on stock returns, the USD to IDR exchange rate has a significant negative effect on stock returns, and gold price does not have a significant effect on stock returns.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

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