THE DYNAMIC OF WATER RESOURCES IN NORTH-EASTERN MOROCCO BETWEEN REALITY AND EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE : CASE OF THE TARIFA PLAIN

The issue of climate change today has become one of the issues that receive increasing attention on the part of the global system, due to its disastrous effects at all levels, and this is due to human and natural factors, including the southern bank of the Mediterranean which has not been excluded from, especially the Tarifa Plain in the far northeast of Morocco, which is one of the most important irrigated areas in the country due to its great contribution to agricultural production and its reliance on achieving economic and social development in the region. However, its climate during the last six decades has witnessed clear variations in the rates of precipitation and temperature, whether annual or monthly, or even seasonal and daily. This increases the severity of the climatic drought, which in turn affects water resources. Therefore, it is imperative that great efforts must be made to limit the effects of these changes in light of the excessive depletion of water in the agricultural sector. Through this intervention, we aim to highlight the climatic changes that occurred on the Tarifa Plain, and their repercussions on its water resources, and how to adapt these changes to achieving sustainable development for the studied area.

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Estimating the economic impacts of drought on agriculture through models and surveys in the Po river basin (Northern Italy)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12066 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Iolanda Borzì ◽

Beatrice Monteleone ◽

Brunella Bonaccorso ◽

Mario Martina

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Growing Season ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Po River ◽

Po River Basin

Drought economic impacts, even if non-structural, are a significant threat for those sectors highly dependent on water resources. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to extreme weather events such as droughts and heatwaves. &#160;Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and the severity of droughts, as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which raises concerns about food security for the next decades.The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that between 2005 and 2015, 83% of all drought-related losses were absorbed by agriculture. The huge monetary losses are mainly due to crop yield reduction because of high temperatures and reduced precipitation, which are linked to additional expenses for field irrigation.This study aims at estimating the economic impacts of drought on the agricultural sector. The investigation has been carried out for a specific case study area within the Po river basin (Northern Italy). The Po valley is the largest agricultural area in Italy and accounts for 35% of Italian agricultural production. It has experienced multiple droughts over the past 20 years, with the long and severe drought from 2003 to 2008 that caused relevant impacts to the agricultural sector. The total economic impact of the 2005-2007 drought was estimated to be around 1.850M&#8364;. Climate change projections over the Italian peninsula from the PRUDENCE regional experiments showed that the frequency and the severity of droughts in Northern Italy will increase in the next century due to a decrease in precipitation during critical crop growing seasons (spring and summer).The proposed methodology consists of two steps. At first, farmers have been subjected to surveys for assessing the monetary losses they experienced during past drought events and the cost associated with the mitigation strategies implemented to reduce the economic impacts of the extreme event, with special attention to irrigation practices.Secondly, the crop growing season and yields have been estimated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), calibrated with local yields retrieved from the Italian National Institute for Statistics (ISTAT) over the period from 2006 to 2020. Weather parameters for simulations in APSIM were derived from remote-sensing images. The comparison between the average growing season and the ones with low yields allows the identification of the crop growing stages that experienced stress. Among the identified stresses, the ones related to water shortages are considered. The economic costs associated with agricultural practices are computed to obtain an estimation of farmers' expenses. Besides, farmers' income is computed based on crop prices and simulated yield. The reduced income obtained by farmers during the previously identified water-related stresses represents their loss due to drought.Results reveal that the use of the developed methodology to identify drought stress in combination with the information coming from surveys helps in quickly assessing the economic impacts of past and present droughts in the Po river basin and represents a useful tool to evaluate which cultivations and which areas suffered the highest economic impacts of droughts.

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Shiyang River Basin and the Adaptive Measures for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.405-408.2167 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 405-408 ◽

pp. 2167-2171 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zhou Li ◽

Xiao Yan Li ◽

Juan Sun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Water Resources ◽

Energy Conservation ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Surface Water Resources ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Climate is an important factor which formed and affected surface water resources. Through sensitivity analysis of natural runoff towards climate change, assuming the main factors effect runoff are precipitation and temperature, then according to the possible tendency of climate changes in the future, set climate scenarios, and use the hydrological model simulate the changes trend of runoff under different climate scenarios, thereby analyze the climate change impacts on surface water resources. The results show that annual runoff will be increased with the increasing annual precipitation, and it will be reduced with rise of annual temperature, the sensitivity that annual runoff towards the change of precipitation and temperature are equally notable, both of them are two major factors impact on the change of runoff and the precipitation change impacts on annual runoff will be even more obvious in flood season. Last, with the global warming trend, put forward the corresponding adaptive measures of energy conservation and emissions reduction。

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Effects of model calibration on hydrological and water resources management simulations under climate change in a semi-arid watershed

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-020-02917-w ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 163 (3) ◽

pp. 1247-1266 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hagen Koch ◽

Ana Lígia Chaves Silva ◽

Stefan Liersch ◽

José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo ◽

Fred Fokko Hattermann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resources Management ◽

Model Calibration ◽

Arid Regions ◽

Discharge Data ◽

Resources Management ◽

North Eastern ◽

Semi Arid

AbstractSemi-arid regions are known for erratic precipitation patterns with significant effects on the hydrological cycle and water resources availability. High temporal and spatial variation in precipitation causes large variability in runoff over short durations. Due to low soil water storage capacity, base flow is often missing and rivers fall dry for long periods. Because of its climatic characteristics, the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil is prone to droughts. To counter these, reservoirs were built to ensure water supply during dry months. This paper describes problems and solutions when calibrating and validating the eco-hydrological model SWIM for semi-arid regions on the example of the Pajeú watershed in north-eastern Brazil. The model was calibrated to river discharge data before the year 1983, with no or little effects of water management, applying a simple and an enhanced approach. Uncertainties result mainly from the meteorological data and observed river discharges. After model calibration water management was included in the simulations. Observed and simulated reservoir volumes and river discharges are compared. The calibrated and validated models were used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and water resources management using data of two representative concentration pathways (RCP) and five earth system models (ESM). The differences in changes in natural and managed mean discharges are negligible (< 5%) under RCP8.5 but notable (> 5%) under RCP2.6 for the ESM ensemble mean. In semi-arid catchments, the enhanced approach should be preferred, because in addition to discharge, a second variable, here evapotranspiration, is considered for model validation.

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Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11050536 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 536

Author(s):

Marinos Markou ◽

Anastasios Michailidis ◽

Efstratios Loizou ◽

Stefanos A. Nastis ◽

Dimitra Lazaridou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Global Climate ◽

Geographical Location ◽

Programming Period ◽

Impact Estimate ◽

The Individual ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Agriculture is highly dependent on climate change, and Cyprus especially is experiencing its impacts on agricultural production to a greater extent, mainly due to its geographical location. The adaptation of farming to the effects of global climate change may lead to the maximization of agricultural production, which is an important and desirable improvement. The main aim of this paper is to rank and quantify the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through a multi-round Delphi survey seeking a consensus agreement in a group of experts. A multidisciplinary group of 20 experts stated their willingness-to-pay for various impacts of climate change. By applying this method, the individual impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources were brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with cost values. The final cost impact estimate represents the total estimated cost of climate change in the agricultural sector. According to the results, this cost reaches EUR 25.08 million annually for the agricultural sector, and EUR 366.48 million for the whole country. Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period 2014–2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture ranges from EUR 176 to EUR 2565 million. The most significant impacts are due to the increasing level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems.

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Climate Change And Agriculture Management – Western Balkan Region Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-772390/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Franc Željko Županić ◽

Danka Radić ◽

Iztok Podbregar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Management ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Scientific Paper ◽

Western Balkans ◽

Western Balkan Region ◽

The Republic

Abstract Background: The aim of this paper is to analyze the possibilities of the agricultural sector of the Western Balkans, to assess compliance with the European Green Deal, which provides for the implementation of activities, which should enable the transition to the green sector and climate change mitigation. This paper is the first scientific paper to analyze agriculture and climate change in light of the EU Green Deal for the Western Balkan territory.Results: Agricultural production is one of the leading industries in the Western Balkans. In the Republic of Serbia, the total gross value of agricultural production in 2019 amounted to 5.5 billion dollars, in Albania, it is the basis of the life of the population and the system of protection against unemployment, while in Bosnia and Herzegovina 1/5 of the population is employed in this sector. Montenegro has a significant share in the gross domestic product (GDP, 8%), while in the Republic of Northern Macedonia agriculture accounts for 13% of GDP. Climate change and predictions that temperatures will increase by 4oC in the coming decades pose a risk not only to agricultural production but also to the safety of the population. If it takes into account that the agricultural production of the countries of the Western Balkans depends primarily on rain, this makes this sector particularly vulnerable. Unless appropriate measures are taken and risk management for water resources and agriculture is improved, there will be a decrease in precipitation and an increase in dry days by 20%. One of the ways to implement adequate activities is the adoption of regulations related to the creation of local energy management, which will enable the assessment of climate change and based on them to give appropriate "energy response“. Conclusions: Taking this combined and ambitious approach and using the latest developments in knowledge and innovation, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aligns agriculture with the European Green Deal, which aims to create an inclusive, competitive, and environmentally friendly future for Europe. Finding renewable energy sources and improving risk management can mitigate the negative impact of climate change and prevent the loss of agrobiodiversity.

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Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Malaysia: Issues for Agricultural Sector

10.31219/osf.io/gjcd5 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽

Chamhuri Siwar ◽

Basri Talib ◽

Mazlin Mokhtar ◽

Mohd Ekhwan bin Toriman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Agricultural Sustainability ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Adaptation Policy ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Agricultural Adaptation ◽

Adverse Impacts

Malaysia is one of the highly vulnerable countries due to climatic changes. Here the changes in climate factors cause adverse impacts on agricultural sustainability and relevant livelihood sustainability. To adapt to these changes a prudent adaptation policy is very important. Several countries follow different adaptation policy based on their localized socioeconomic and geographical status. While defining its adaptation policy, Malaysia also needs to consider several crucial factors. This study discusses issues relevant to the farmers’ adaptation to climate change in Malaysia and also provides few recommendations that will help policy makers to prepare the agricultural adaptation policy for climate change

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Planning and Management of Water Resources in the Context of Economic Devlopment and Climate Change in Algerian Highlandsby the WEAP Model, Case of the Gareat El Tarf Basin (Northwestern Algeria)

Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports ◽

10.2478/ceer-2021-0015 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 200-215

Author(s):

Naouel Dali

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Weap Model ◽

Model Case ◽

Planning Software ◽

Economic Constraints ◽

The Impact ◽

Pressure On Water Resources ◽

National Water

Abstract Water in the Gareat El Tarf basin, is affected by climatic and economic constraints; while its development is based on the agricultural sector, which creates pressure on water resources. The objective of this study is to analyse the performance of the national water plan to accompany this policy, and the impact of climate change on water resources. The methodology adopted is the application of the WEAP(Water Evaluation and the Planning)software, in order to build a model for the allocation of water resources, up to 2050. The results obtained confirm that the impact of the economic policy shows a very important deficit that exceeds 400 million m3 in 2050. To face this challenge, it is recommended to adopt an economic strategy based on the protection of water resources and adapted to the supply capacities of renewable water resources.

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Impact of water resources management on area under cultivation level and agricultural production efficiency (Case Study: Villages of Zebarkhan district of Neyshabur city)

Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental ◽

10.5902/2236117043413 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 24 ◽

pp. 36

Author(s):

Ali Kariznovi ◽

Hamid Jafari

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Resources Management ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Production Efficiency ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Rural Settlements ◽

Field Methods ◽

Resources Management ◽

The Impact

The amount of water consumed in the agricultural sector in Iran is higher than the global average and this necessitates more attention to proper water management in this sector. Due to the climatic conditions of Iran, the average rainfall in most areas is lower than global rainfall. That is to say, the water issue is one of Iran's most important concerns or the greatest challenge for the people of this land. Examining the current agricultural situation indicates that despite the increased agricultural production potential due to the lack of a proper management system, optimal utilization of available resources has not become possible and droughts and reduced rainfall and increasing population followed reduce the amount of water consumed in the agricultural sector. The present study investigates the impact of agricultural water resources management on the economic development of rural settlements (Case study: Villages of Zebarkhan district of Neyshabur city). This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive and analytical method and library and field methods have been used for data collection. According to the results of the present study and data analysis regarding the amount of water consumed in the study area, it was observed that the amount of water consumed per hectare for all crops in modern management lands was less than the fields where managed by the traditional way. This suggests that modern science-based scientific management has played a key role in reducing the loss of water resources within the scope of this study, and in contrast, water loss in farms that are managed in traditional ways is so high. Also, regarding the production efficiency in the study area, the results showed that the production efficiency per hectare for all crops was significantly higher than that under traditional management. This rate varied between 25 to 57.1%.

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THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN TURKEY

Journal of Global Innovations in Agriculture Sciences ◽

10.22194/jgias/9.957 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 183-200

Author(s):

Ayşe Esra Peker ◽

Ayşe Er

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Change ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Industrial Revolution ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Causality Test ◽

Energy Needs ◽

Study Setting

After Industrial Revolution, severe increases were experienced in fossil fuel consumption due to increased energy needs. The endless struggle of humankind for interest and his/her ignorance of environmental devastation led greenhouse gas to accumulate in the atmosphere, global warming to be experienced and, depending on this, climatic change to form. This process experienced has caused many international and national studies to be conducted in the area of climatic change related to the different disciplines, and the issue has taken place in the top orders among the leading subjects in academic platforms. This study discussed the effect of climatic change in Turkey on the agricultural sector. The sectors dealt with the study the agricultural sector, and the effects of climatic changes were aimed to be introduced with an econometric model. In agricultural sector, the effects of climatic changes from the perspective of the product productivity were analyzed by means of the agricultural sector, the effects of climatic changes from the perspective of product productivity were analyzed through Granger Causality Test. In the study, the period of 1970 -2017 was based on. The study deals with the issue on a sectorial basis; additionally, its effect is evaluated on the basis of product productivity from the original aspect of the study. Setting out from the results obtained in the study, climatic policies directed to the agricultural sector for Turkey were formed. The effects of the process on the sector were explicitly introduced. Developing climatic policies directed to this sector was targeted to contribute to the literature. Keywords: Climate change, agricultural products, granger causality test, variance decomposition.

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