scholarly journals Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (246) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Fotiou

Empirical evidence shows that fiscal multipliers depend on the state of the cycle, the nature of fiscal policy and the level of debt. In other words, evidence points to non-linearities in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper provides a framework to examine the role of the level of government debt in the assessment of consolidation policies across the business cycle, allowing for the consolidation multiplier to depend on the level of debt at the time of consolidation. The empirical analysis, which uses a panel of 13 countries between 1980 and 2014, finds that when debt is high, fiscal consolidations based on tax increases are in general self-defeating, in that they result in an increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio. Instead, cutting public expenditure has a less pronounced effect on economic activity and can stabilize debt. The initial level of debt in an economy, when a fiscal consolidation is implemented, appears to work as a channel in explaining evidence of state-dependence of the different consolidation instruments.

Author(s):  
Christopher Tsoukis

This chapter looks at fiscal policy, broadly interpreted to include its implications on deficits, debt, and fiscal solvency. It is informally divided in two parts, starting from the latter set of issues. After introducing the budget deficit, debt and the government budget constraint, and related issues, it proceeds to analyse fiscal solvency, deriving formal conditions and discussing extensively indicators and required policy rules. The role of growth in ensuring fiscal solvency is put in sharp relief. Additionally, the ‘dilemma of austerity’ is critically discussed, i.e. whether ‘fiscal consolidations’ can in fact damage public finances by being recessionary. We then turn to the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity: A ‘toolkit’ of static fiscal multipliers is discussed, as is the intertemporal approach to fiscal policy (including Ricardian Equivalence), complemented by empirical evidence.


2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Illing ◽  
Sebastian Watzka

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.


2018 ◽  
pp. 111-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang AN ◽  
Hang WANG

To explore the role of fiscal policies in promoting the development of photovoltaic industry, the effects of financial subsidies on the development of China’s photovoltaic industry were analyzed by using the micro data of listed companies. The empirical analysis results in this study indicate that the fiscal policies represented by financial subsidies play a remarkable positive impetus function and financial subsidies are positively correlated with the operating performance of Photovoltaic enterprises. With larger the asset size and higher the Research and Development (R&D) investments, the operating performance of Photovoltaic enterprises is the better. Based on the above results, this study puts forward some policy suggestions on optimizing fiscal policy tools and further promoting the development of photovoltaic industry.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 845-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Kuang

This paper introduces imperfect knowledge and learning behavior of economic agents into the Kiyotaki and Moore model and studies the interaction of agents' collateral price beliefs, collateral constraint, and aggregate economic activity over the business cycle. It establishes the E-stability condition and the convergence of the real time learning process. In addition, it shows that learning strengthens the role of collateral constraints in aggregate fluctuations.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1646
Author(s):  
Mahije Mustafi ◽  
Sulbije Memeti Karemani

This paper analyzes the empirical literature that examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity. Discussion related to fiscal policy is related to the impacts on economic growth is quite current, because the development of appropriate fiscal instruments can lead to steady and sustainable economic growth in the countries. The role of fiscal policy and the impact on economic activity are among the most controversial issues among academics and policymakers. In the absence of any "active" intervention in government expenses, tax revenues move automatically with the economic cycle. I can also say that government transfers can be considered as help for the unemployed, they grow as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, while labor tax returns, capital and consumption flows are declining. Resistive actions occur when the business cycle improves. In recent years, empirical studies have shown that private consumption and GDP have increased significantly, while government expenses have been severely reduced. Most empirical evidence suggests that fiscal expansion increases production and consumption and worsens the trade balance.The Kenzie and Neoclassical schools have different views on the impact of public spending on economic activity. This study has completed a detailed review of many important, relevant scientific havepapersthat empirically document these impacts. As a conclusion, we can state that although the fiscal policy theory is well developed, until recently has not received much attention from the (applied) economic practice. The first category is aimed at assessing macroeconomic impact from major reductions in the budget deficit, and the second study, in general, analyzes the stabilizing capabilities of fiscal policy variables. According to Blanchard and Perotti, the dynamic effects of the discretionary fiscal policy of macroeconomic variables have recently focused on the omissions of autoregressive vectors (2002). Some empirical studies have found a link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation, both in industrialized economies as well as in growing economies. For industrial economies most of these studies have come to the conclusion that there is little evidence that government debt affects the growth of money and inflation. In developing countries, it is often argued that high inflation is realized when governments face large and ongoing deficits financed by money emission. A change in taxes or public expenses (the so-called “fiscal shocks”) at any time prevents their development.


2019 ◽  
pp. 112-125
Author(s):  
Inna Tiutiunyk ◽  
Ihor Kobushko ◽  
Oleksandr Ivaniy ◽  
Anna Flaumer

This article summarizes the arguments and counter-arguments within the framework of scientific discussion on the estimation of the volume of tax gaps in the economy in the context of the foreign economic activity of the country as one of the tools for minimizing tax liabilities. Systematizing these scientific developments on the definite problem has shown that among scientists there is no consensus on the role of tax gaps in the economy and their interrelation with foreign economic activity of the country, which significantly updates the need for further empirical research in this area, aimed at determining the volume of tax gaps by the export-import activity and their influence on indicators of economic development of the country. The research is based on the use of the modified Grubel-Lloyd formula (which allows determining the index of asynchronous export-import activity in the retrospective dynamics) and indicators of the level of asynchronous export-import activity by the partner countries. The study subject is the countries with the highest (Georgia), medium (Turkey, Cyprus, Solomon Islands) and the lowest (Japan, Austria, United States) levels of economy shadowing, which allows taking a more thorough and objective decision on the effect of asynchronous export and import activity on the volume of tax gaps in the economy, and its dependence on the level of shadowing in the country for 2013-2017. The paper presents the results of the empirical analysis of the volume gap of foreign economic activity on the example of Ukraine and its trading partners, which has shown that the highest index of asynchrony is peculiar to countries with average levels of shadowing – Cyprus, Solomon Islands, and the lowest – with the participation of countries with low level of shadowing. At the same time, it has been determined that one of the highest asynchronous indexes is observed with the participation of offshore countries. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the foreign economic component plays a significant role in the processes of economic development of the country, and the number of hidden tax payments, due to these transactions, occupy about 1% of the country's GDP (gross domestic product). The results of the research may be useful for the relevant executive authorities in developing measures to prevent income shadowing in the context of export-import operations.


2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 893-916
Author(s):  
Philipp Stolzenberg ◽  
Panagiotis Getimis

This article assesses the interplay between different leadership styles and three dimensions of legitimacy (input-, throughput- and output-legitimacy). In four German and six Greek cities, we investigate the role of mayors and treasurers in fiscal consolidation policy. We can explain different outcomes of fiscal policy with different institutional structures between the two countries, but we found also remarkable differences within the countries, especially in Greek municipalities, which are related to different leadership styles. However, we also show that different leadership styles can result in sufficient output-legitimacy of fiscal policies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 536-559
Author(s):  
Paulo R. Mota ◽  
Abel L.C. Fernandes ◽  
Paulo B. Vasconcelos

The austerity policies applied by the eurozone peripheral governments under the Troika financial assistance programmes have contributed to a sharp reduction in aggregate demand, regardless of the unconventional measures undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB decreased the interest rate on the main refinancing operations to zero and has been buying assets from banks on a massive scale under the Expanded Asset Purchase Programme. The fact that these extraordinary measures have not been enough to promote a strong recovery shifts the focus back onto fiscal policy. The value of impact fiscal multipliers and the size of hysteretic effects are key factors for assessing the effects of fiscal policy. There is widespread evidence that public expenditure multipliers are greater than one, especially when the economy is depressed. However, less is known about the importance of hysteresis effects. Using the linear play hysteresis operator, we find that hysteresis effects are important in the eurozone peripheral countries. Large fiscal impact multipliers combined with the presence of hysteresis implies that front-loaded austerity depresses the economy in the short run, and these effects may persist in the long run.


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