scholarly journals Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-70
Author(s):  
Xin Janet ◽  
Ka-Chi Lam
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Household Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Land Supply ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

This paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in HongKong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographicfactors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derivedfrom a multiple regression analysis where three sets and eight models were derived foranalysis and comparison. It is found that household income, land supply, population andmovements in the Hang Seng Index play an important role in explaining house pricemovements in Hong Kong. In addition, political events, as identified, cannot be ignored.However, the results of the models are unstable. It is suggested that the OLS may nota best method for house prices model in Hong Kong situation. Alternative methods aresuggested.

scholarly journals Research on a forecasting model of tourism traffic volume in theme parks in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-144
Author(s):  
Zhen-yu Mei ◽  
Hai Qiu ◽  
Chi Feng ◽  
Yang Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Theme Parks ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Passenger Volume ◽  
Spss Software

Abstract In this study, a model based on multiple regression analysis is developed to forecast the tourism traffic volume of theme parks. First, the macro, meso and micro factors affecting traffic passenger volume are analysed. Second, SPSS software is used for multivariate regression analysis on data for 10 theme parks from 2014. A tourism traffic volume forecasting model is then proposed. Finally, related data for 2015 is used to validate the model, with results showing a prediction error of 14.1%. All results show that the model has a high predictive ability.

Monetary Evaluation of Nuisance from Road-Traffic Noise: An Exploratory Study

1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
F J Langdon
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Traffic Noise ◽  
Road Traffic Noise ◽  
Large Scale Survey ◽  
Traffic Composition

In the course of a large-scale survey of noise nuisance due to road traffic, carried out in the Greater London area and already extensively reported, respondents were invited to evaluate the worth of peace and quiet in monetary terms. The data was submitted to multiple regression analysis and estimates related to noise level and traffic composition were obtained. It was found that at lower levels of nuisance, household income and related variables were major determinants of monetary estimates and played a greater part than noise or traffic variables. The results appear to be comparable with estimates derived by economists from the study of depreciation of house prices as a consequence of noise. The general significance of the findings is discussed and suggestions for further study are made.

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1133-1153
Author(s):  
A.T. Kozinova
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Instability ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.

Statehood and the State-Like in International Law

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan Nicholson
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
International Law ◽  
The State ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Territorial Integrity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Imperial China ◽  
Peremptory Norms ◽  
Legal Sense

If the term were given its literal meaning, international law would be law between ‘nations’. It is often described instead as being primarily between states. But this conceals the diversity of the nations or state-like entities that have personality in international law or that have had it historically. This book reconceptualizes statehood by positioning it within that wider family of state-like entities. An important conclusion of the book is that states themselves have diverse legal underpinnings. Practice in cases such as Somalia and broader principles indicate that international law provides not one but two alternative methods of qualifying as a state: subject to exceptions connected with territorial integrity and peremptory norms, an entity can be a state either on the ground that it meets criteria of effectiveness or on the ground that it is recognized by all other states. Another conclusion is that states, in the strict legal sense in which the word is used today, have never been the only state-like entities with personality in international law. Others from the past and present include imperial China in the period when it was unreceptive to Western norms; pre-colonial African chiefdoms; ‘states-in-context’, an example of which may be Palestine, which have the attributes of statehood relative to states that recognize them; and entities such as Hong Kong.

Predicting House Prices with Spatial Dependence: A Comparison of Alternative Methods

2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Bourassa ◽  
Eva Cantoni ◽  
Martin Hoesli
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Alternative Methods

scholarly journals Housing wealth, mortgages and Australians’ labour force participation in later life

Urban Studies ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 004209802110265
Author(s):  
Rachel Ong ◽  
Gavin A Wood ◽  
Melek Cigdem
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Housing Wealth ◽  
Working Lives ◽  
Imputed Rent

In the life cycle model of consumption and saving, homeownership is an important vehicle for horizontal redistribution. Households accumulate wealth in owner-occupied housing during working lives before benefiting from imputed rent streams in retirement. But in some countries housing wealth’s welfare role has broadened as owners increasingly use flexible mortgages to smooth consumption during working lives. One consequence is higher outstanding mortgages later in life, a burden exacerbated by high real house prices that compel home buyers to demand mortgages that are a growing multiple of their incomes. We investigate whether these developments are prompting longer working lives, an idea that is especially relevant in countries offering relatively low government pensions. Australia is one such country. We use the 2001–2017 panels of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to estimate hazard models of exits from the Australian labour force as workers approach pensionable age. We find that those with high outstanding mortgage debts are more likely to postpone retirement, as are those with relatively low amounts of private pension wealth. These results are stronger in urban housing markets, and especially among males.

scholarly journals Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Intihar ◽  
Tomaž Kramberger ◽  
Dejan Dragan
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Dynamic Factor Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.

scholarly journals Prevalence and determinants of potentially inappropriate medication use in Hong Kong older patients: a cross-sectional study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. e051527
Author(s):  
Huanyu Zhang ◽  
Eliza LY Wong ◽  
Samuel YS Wong ◽  
Patsy YK Chau ◽  
Benjamin HK Yip ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Inappropriate Medication ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Potentially Inappropriate Medication ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional

ObjectivesTo assess the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use in Hong Kong older patients visiting general outpatient clinics (GOPCs) between 2006 and 2014 and to identify factors associated with PIM use among older adults visiting GOPCs in 2014.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingGOPC.ParticipantsTwo study samples were constructed including a total of 844 910 patients aged 65 and above from 2006 to 2014 and a cohort of 489 301 older patients in 2014.MeasurementsTwo subsets of the 2015 American Geriatrics Society Beers criteria—PIMs independent of diagnosis and PIMs due to drug–disease interactions—were used to estimate the prevalence of PIM use over 12 months. PIMs that were not included in the Hospital Authority drug formulary or with any specific restriction or exception in terms of indication, dose or therapy duration were excluded. Characteristics of PIM users and non-PIM users visiting GOPCs in 2014 were compared. Independent associations between patient variables and PIM use were assessed by stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis.ResultsThe 12-month period prevalence of PIM use decreased from 55.56% (95% CI 55.39% to 55.72%) in 2006 to 47.51% (95% CI 47.37% to 47.65%) in 2014. In the multivariable regression analysis, the strongest factor associated with PIM use was the number of different drugs prescribed (adjusted OR, AOR 23.01, 95% CI 22.36 to 23.67). Being female (AOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.87 for males vs females) and having a greater number of GOPC visits (AOR 1.83, 95% CI 1.78 to 1.88) as well as more than six diagnoses (AOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.52) were associated with PIM use.ConclusionsThe overall prevalence of PIM use in older adults visiting GOPCs decreased from 2006 to 2014 in Hong Kong although the prevalence of PIM use was still high in 2014. Patients with female gender, a larger number of medications prescribed, more frequent visits to GOPCs, and more than six diagnoses were at higher risk for PIM use.

House prices and household income: Do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan

2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Chi Chen ◽  
I-Chun Tsai ◽  
Chin-Oh Chang
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
House Prices
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