ON NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INVERSE EPIDEMIOLOGY PROBLEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-14
Author(s):  
Zh.М. Bektemessov ◽  
◽  
S.I. Kabanikhin ◽  
S.E. Kasenov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Inverse Problem ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Public ◽  
Runge Kutta Method ◽  
Chamber Model

The article examines a mathematical compartment model of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. The article consists of six paragraphs. In this study, epidemic outbreaks are studied from an interdisciplinary point of view using an extension of the susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model, which is a mathematical chamber model based on the average behavior of the studied population group. Many infectious diseases are characterized by an incubation period between exposure and the appearance of clinical symptoms. Subjects exposed to infection are much more dangerous to the public compared to subjects who have clinical symptoms. A nonlinear system of SEIRD differential equations is considered. For the numerical solution of a direct problem, the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method is considered. In modeling, the relationship is derived based on the laws of the subject area and allows you to determine the nature of changes in the framework of the work, depending on its parameters. The inverse problem is posed to determine the coefficients of this system. The inverse problem was solved by the method of a genetic algorithm. The method of the genetic algorithm is described. Numerical results are obtained and a comparative analysis with accurate data is made.

FUNDAMENTAL AND APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH: сб.науч.тр./ OEAPS Inc.; редкол.: Флора Бертран (отв.ред.) [и др.]. - Берлин, Германия : OEAPS Inc., 2018. - 58 С.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Мария Григорьевна Алпатова ◽  
Мария Игоревна Щеглова ◽  
Elmira Kalybaevna Adil’bekova ◽  
Nuradin Alibaev ◽  
Arunas Svitojus
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Applied Research ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Scientific Quality ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Main Criterion ◽  
The Public ◽  
Peer Reviewers ◽  
Verification Process

The conference is a major international forum for analyzing and discussing trends and approaches in research in the field of basic science and applied research. We provide a platform for discussions on innovative, theoretical and empirical research. The form of the conference: in absentia, without specifying the form in the collection of articles. Working languages: Russian, English Doctors and candidates of science, scientists, specialists of various profiles and directions, applicants for academic degrees, teachers, graduate students, undergraduates, students are invited to participate in the conference. There is one blind verification process in the journal. All articles will be initially evaluated by the editor for compliance with the journal. Manuscripts that are considered appropriate are then usually sent to at least two independent peer reviewers to assess the scientific quality of the article. The editor is responsible for the final decision on whether to accept or reject the article. The editor's decision is final. The main criterion used in assessing the manuscript submitted to the journal is: uniqueness or innovation in the work from the point of view of the methodology being developed and / or its application to a problem of particular importance in the public sector or service sector and / or the setting in which the efforts, for example, in the developing region of the world. That is, the very model / methodology, application and context of problems, at least one of them must be unique and important. Additional criteria considered in the consideration of the submitted document are its accuracy, organization / presentation (ie logical flow) and recording quality.

FUNDAMENTAL AND APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH April 2019: сб.науч.тр./ OEAPS Inc.; редкол.: Флора Бертран (отв.ред.) [и др.]. - Берлин, Германия : OEAPS Inc., 2019. - 98 C.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Изабелла Станиславовна Чибисова ◽  
Диана Ильгизаровна Шарипова ◽  
Альфия Галиевна Зулькарнаева ◽  
Ксения Александровна Дулова ◽  
Садег Амирзадеган ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Applied Research ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Scientific Quality ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Main Criterion ◽  
The Public ◽  
Peer Reviewers ◽  
Verification Process

The conference is a major international forum for analyzing and discussing trends and approaches in research in the field of basic science and applied research. We provide a platform for discussions on innovative, theoretical and empirical research. The form of the conference: in absentia, without specifying the form in the collection of articles. Working languages: Russian, English Doctors and candidates of science, scientists, specialists of various profiles and directions, applicants for academic degrees, teachers, graduate students, undergraduates, students are invited to participate in the conference. There is one blind verification process in the journal. All articles will be initially evaluated by the editor for compliance with the journal. Manuscripts that are considered appropriate are then usually sent to at least two independent peer reviewers to assess the scientific quality of the article. The editor is responsible for the final decision on whether to accept or reject the article. The editor's decision is final. The main criterion used in assessing the manuscript submitted to the journal is: uniqueness or innovation in the work from the point of view of the methodology being developed and / or its application to a problem of particular importance in the public sector or service sector and / or the setting in which the efforts, for example, in the developing region of the world. That is, the very model / methodology, application and context of problems, at least one of them must be unique and important. Additional criteria considered in the consideration of the submitted document are its accuracy, organization / presentation (ie logical flow) and recording quality.

IMPROVING MECHANISMS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN THE STATE BORDER SERVICE OF UKRAINE, PUBLIC ORGANISATIONS AND POPULATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 91-101
Author(s):  
Iakiv Serhiiovych Halaniuk
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Border Area ◽  
Public Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mechanism Model ◽  
Public Organisations ◽  
The Military

The article highlights the author’s approach to improving coopera- tion mechanisms of the State Border Service of Ukraine with public organiza- tions and population. There has been analyzed public control as a means their cooperation and priorities of improving the cooperation, particularly, forms and methods of organizing citizens’ feedback, introduction of the assessment pro- cedure of the efficiency of the SBSU and population and public organization. There have been stated conceptual pillars of the public control development in the SBSU, developed by the author, including public control forms and resource provision. There has been considered a mechanism algorithm of the public par- ticipation in the development of the border administration through submitting petitions or proposals concerning a legally enforceable enactment draft (or the legally enforceable enactment currently in force). There has been represented a mechanism model of discussing legally enforceable enactments and public peti- tions, developed by the author. It is noted that one of the mechanisms of interac- tion of the SBSU with the public is effective public control, which becomes an in- tegral part of ensuring national security and political stability. The conditions of permanence of Ukraine's threats in the border area, and in certain areas and their exacerbation, along with further reforms of the institutes of Ukrainian statehood, cause the problem of establishing and implementing public control in the border area as an important and urgent one.It is proved that public control is intended to determine the correctness of the military-force policy in the border area, the validity of the scale and optimality of the forms of activity of the border guards. In accordance with all this, in the subject area of public control should be: political decisions on issues of border security, including international agreements; the expediency and validity of government programs for the provision and reform of the border authorities of Ukraine, assess- ment of the effectiveness of these programs and the procedure for making changes to them.

Monumentality and the Roman Empire

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Full Length ◽  
Classical Antiquity ◽  
Early Modern Europe ◽  
Close Link ◽  
The Public ◽  
Roman Italy

The quality of "monumentality" is attributed to the buildings of few historical epochs or cultures more frequently or consistently than to those of the Roman Empire. It is this quality that has helped to make them enduring models for builders of later periods. This extensively illustrated book, the first full-length study of the concept of monumentality in Classical Antiquity, asks what it is that the notion encompasses and how significant it was for the Romans themselves in molding their individual or collective aspirations and identities. Although no single word existed in antiquity for the qualities that modern authors regard as making up that term, its Latin derivation--from monumentum, "a monument"--attests plainly to the presence of the concept in the mentalities of ancient Romans, and the development of that notion through the Roman era laid the foundation for the classical ideal of monumentality, which reached a height in early modern Europe. This book is also the first full-length study of architecture in the Antonine Age--when it is generally agreed the Roman Empire was at its height. By exploring the public architecture of Roman Italy and both Western and Eastern provinces of the Roman Empire from the point of view of the benefactors who funded such buildings, the architects who designed them, and the public who used and experienced them, Edmund Thomas analyzes the reasons why Roman builders sought to construct monumental buildings and uncovers the close link between architectural monumentality and the identity and ideology of the Roman Empire itself.

scholarly journals From Substitutive to Supplementary: Institutional Interplay between Public and Occupational Sickness Benefits in Finland, 1947-2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80
Author(s):  
Laura Järvi
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sickness Benefit ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
Blue Collar Workers ◽  
Sickness Benefits ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Benefit System

In the context of the Finnish welfare state, this article examines the role of occupational welfare in the interplay between public and occupational sickness benefits from 1947 to 2016, to analyse how the two sickness benefits have interacted over time and the role occupational welfare has played in sickness provision. Previous research has noted that occupational benefits may support or compensate for the much-debated declining welfare state. Hence, it is important to acquire greater knowledge about the public-occupational interplay. The study uses in-depth individual-level analysis from a retrospective point of view, which has been rare in previous research, and examines the public-occupational interplay in the Finnish sickness benefit system from the first national collective agreements to 2016. Based on the reforms made to the public system, the article identifies and utilises six different phases of the Finnish sickness allowance system in the main analysis. The institutional development of sickness provision is investigated by analysing the compensation rate and benefit period, using metalworkers as a representative example of blue-collar workers. The results indicate that occupational benefits are strongly institutionalised in the Finnish sickness benefit system. The interplay between statutory and occupational sickness benefits has taken different forms over time, and occupational benefits have been re-negotiated as the statutory system has been reformed. The article provides valuable information on the historical development and relevance of occupational welfare, in terms of not only understanding its significance for individuals but also comprehending the logic of the interplay in the public-private mix of welfare provision.

Research on Related Model for Urban Public Crisis Handle Mechanism

2014 ◽  
Vol 989-994 ◽  
pp. 5540-5543
Author(s):  
Yong Chang Ren
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Theoretical Point ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Crisis ◽  
Crisis Events ◽  
Response And Recovery ◽  
The Relationship

China is in a critical period of urbanization, and various social contradictions continue to be accumulated, emerged and enlarged, so public crisis management mechanism has been highly valued by governments at all levels with the public crisis events are occurred frequently. The paper conducts study for the problems in the current urban public crisis handle mechanism. First, the evaluation model of crisis management can be researched, and crisis management can be divided into four stages to evaluate respectively, they are Reduction, Readiness, Response and Recovery; then, we should research crisis prediction model to strengthen prediction, prevention and monitoring of the crisis before the crisis happened; finally, stakeholders analysis model should be studied, and scientific analyzing the interests of the various stakeholders and the relationship among them. From the theoretical point of view, the paper carries on a study for crisis handle mechanism to provide support for improving the crisis handle level.

The Public Purchase of Grain on Independent Delos

1993 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 300-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Reger
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Third Century ◽  
The Public ◽  
Price Structure ◽  
Grain Trade ◽  
Local Supply ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Grain Prices

Earlier work has tended to view Delos as an entrepôt for the larger Hellenistic grain trade, but during the years of independence (314-167 B.C.) the island relied on the import of grain to satisfy local demand, and this was certainly the more important aspect of the trade in grain, at least from the Delians' point of view. This study explores several issues connected with the local supply of grain. From prices for grain reported in inscriptions and estimates of the local population, the aggregate annual demand for grain is estimated, and the price structure of grain derived; the ratio of wheat and barley prices on Delos is found to differ considerably from that known from Athens and Roman Egypt. The shortage of 282 B.C., assumed by earlier scholars from prices recorded for that year, is shown instead to be a period of atypically low prices. The impact of the sailing season on shipments of grain is explored, and an annual rhythm in grain prices and availability linked to the closure of the sea and the agricultural year is revealed. The Delians tried to reduce the impact of these fluctuations by the public purchase of grain on an irregular basis in the late fourth and third century, as attested through public loans; by the last quarter of the third century they had established a regular sitōnia fund to buy grain for resale at reduced prices. Comparison of funds available, grain prices, and the estimated aggregate demand suggest that the Delian sitōnia was able to cover a significant fraction of local demand; this contrasts with evidence from other cities. Some of the implications of these results for our understanding of the Hellenistic economy are briefly explored.

scholarly journals The development of the program of voluntary blood donation promotion in students population of the University of Belgrade

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 489-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Snezana Jovanovic-Srzentic ◽  
Ivana Rodic ◽  
Mirjana Knezevic
Keyword(s):  
Blood Donors ◽  
Blood Donation ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Minimum Risk ◽  
Blood Donations ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Donated Blood ◽  
The University ◽  
Academic Year

Background/Aim. Given that in each country students represent the most progressive population group, as of 2001, the Blood Transfusion Institute of Serbia (BTIS) has been carrying the program of voluntary blood donation promotion and education of volunteers at the University of Belgrade (UB). In 2011, the BTIS intensified all activities at the UB. The aim of this study was to present activities performed from 2001 at the Blood Donors` Motivation Department (DMD) of the BTIS related with increasing the level of awareness on voluntary blood donation in the Belgrade students` population, enhancing their motivation to become voluntary blood donors (VBDs), increasing the number of blood donations at faculties of the UB, and increasing the number of blood donations in the UB students population compared with the total number of blood units collected by BTIS in Belgrade, with the emphasis on the year 2013. Methods. Initially, the applied methodology was based on encouraging students to donate blood through discussions and preparatory lectures, followed by organized blood drives. Appropriate selection of volunteers at each faculty was crucial. Besides their recognisable identity, they had to have remarkable communication skills and ability to positivly affect persons in their environment. The applied principle was based on retention of volunteers all through the final academic year, with the inclusion of new volunteers each year and 1,000 preparatory lectures on the annual basis. The activities were realized using two Facebook profiles, SMS messages and continuous notification of the public through the media. Results. There was an increase in the average number of students in blood drives at the faculties from 2011, when the average number of the students per blood drive was 39, followed by 43 in 2012 and 46 in 2013. The number of students who donated blood in 2013 increased by 21.3% compared with 2012 data. Conclusion. The applied concept highly contributed to generation and retention of future VBDs willing to regularly donate blood in the coming years, with a minimum risk of transmission of transfusion transmissible diseases markers.

"Om Alle Menschen Wel Te Leren Sterven"

1986 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-179
Author(s):  
E.J.G. Lips
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
Original Text ◽  
The Public ◽  
Ars Moriendi ◽  
Text Types ◽  
Dutch Language ◽  
The Masses

AbstractThe genre of the Ars moriendi is by no means a homogeneous one. Indeed, the great textual diversity has more than once attracted the attention. This diversity, caused by various omissions and, more often, extensions in the original text-types, is often considered as the decay of an originally orthodox theological genre. In this essay, manuscripts and printed versions of the Ars moriendi in the Dutch language ( ± 1450-1530) are studied. Instead of considering the omissions and extensions meant above as a decline of the genre, the author attempts to regard them, as the medieval writers may have done, as means to make the texts find their way to the public more easily. Various methods used by the authors of these Artes to reach their public, are examined and their presumable succes is evaluated. It seems that, whereas particularly the older literature assumes an almost infinite public, recent research does not confirm this point of view. For, in spite of explicit remarks addressed to all christians, commerce dictated to the printers a more or less wealthy public. As for the manuscripts, these seem mainly to have had a public of clergy and (female) religious communities. However, considering the existence of a public of listeners, both manuscripts and printed versions had, in an indirect way, their impact on the masses of the christians.

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