scholarly journals Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3469-3483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
Julien Anet ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Werner Schmutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry–climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m−2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

scholarly journals Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
Julien Anet ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Thomas Peter
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21st and around 25 % at the end of 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22nd century or later.

scholarly journals Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 16865-16906 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Hoffmann ◽  
C. M. Hoppe ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
G. S. Dutton ◽  
J. C. Gille ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their global loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 111(96–132) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 112(97–133) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 112(96–135) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.47±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 112(102–123) yr. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43–67) yr and 102(88–122) yr, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95–129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.

scholarly journals Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 12479-12497 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Hoffmann ◽  
C. M. Hoppe ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
G. S. Dutton ◽  
J. C. Gille ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer–tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96–133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97–134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98–136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103–124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43–67) years and 102(88–122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95–129) years, based on a 10-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.

scholarly journals Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of megacities on local, regional and global tropospheric ozone and the deposition of nitrogen species

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 12215-12231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. S. Stock ◽  
M. R. Russo ◽  
T. M. Butler ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
M. G. Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Chemical Environment ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Emissions

Abstract. We examine the effects of ozone precursor emissions from megacities on present-day air quality using the global chemistry–climate model UM-UKCA (UK Met Office Unified Model coupled to the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model). The sensitivity of megacity and regional ozone to local emissions, both from within the megacity and from surrounding regions, is important for determining air quality across many scales, which in turn is key for reducing human exposure to high levels of pollutants. We use two methods, perturbation and tagging, to quantify the impact of megacity emissions on global ozone. We also completely redistribute the anthropogenic emissions from megacities, to compare changes in local air quality going from centralised, densely populated megacities to decentralised, lower density urban areas. Focus is placed not only on how changes to megacity emissions affect regional and global NOx and O3, but also on changes to NOy deposition and to local chemical environments which are perturbed by the emission changes. The perturbation and tagging methods show broadly similar megacity impacts on total ozone, with the perturbation method underestimating the contribution partially because it perturbs the background chemical environment. The total redistribution of megacity emissions locally shifts the chemical environment towards more NOx-limited conditions in the megacities, which is more conducive to ozone production, and monthly mean surface ozone is found to increase up to 30% in megacities, depending on latitude and season. However, the displacement of emissions has little effect on the global annual ozone burden (0.12% change). Globally, megacity emissions are shown to contribute ~3% of total NOy deposition. The changes in O3, NOx and NOy deposition described here are useful for quantifying megacity impacts and for understanding the sensitivity of megacity regions to local emissions. The small global effects of the 100% redistribution carried out in this study suggest that the distribution of emissions on the local scale is unlikely to have large implications for chemistry–climate processes on the global scale.

Evaluating the Consistency between Statistically Downscaled and Global Dynamical Model Climate Change Projections

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6052-6059 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
P. Hope ◽  
S. Charles
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The consistency between rainfall projections obtained from direct climate model output and statistical downscaling is evaluated. Results are averaged across an area large enough to overcome the difference in spatial scale between these two types of projections and thus make the comparison meaningful. Undertaking the comparison using a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models for two forcing scenarios presents a unique opportunity to test whether statistical linkages established between large-scale predictors and local rainfall under current climate remain valid in future climatic conditions. The study focuses on the southwest corner of Western Australia, a region that has experienced recent winter rainfall declines and for which climate models project, with great consistency, further winter rainfall reductions due to global warming. Results show that as a first approximation the magnitude of the modeled rainfall decline in this region is linearly related to the model global warming (a reduction of about 9% per degree), thus linking future rainfall declines to future emission paths. Two statistical downscaling techniques are used to investigate the influence of the choice of technique on projection consistency. In addition, one of the techniques was assessed using different large-scale forcings, to investigate the impact of large-scale predictor selection. Downscaled and direct model projections are consistent across the large number of models and two scenarios considered; that is, there is no tendency for either to be biased; and only a small hint that large rainfall declines are reduced in downscaled projections. Among the two techniques, a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model provides greater consistency with climate models than an analog approach. Differences were due to the choice of the optimal combination of predictors. Thus statistically downscaled projections require careful choice of large-scale predictors in order to be consistent with physically based rainfall projections. In particular it was noted that a relative humidity moisture predictor, rather than specific humidity, was needed for downscaled projections to be consistent with direct model output projections.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 20223-20237 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Li ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
P. A. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

scholarly journals Global Warming Impacts Study of Tofu Products in Mampang Prapatan Small and Medium Enterprises with Life Cycle Assessment Methods

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bayu Sukmana ◽  
Isti Surjandari ◽  
Muryanto . ◽  
Arief A. R. Setiawan ◽  
Edi Iswanto Wiloso
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Fuel Wood ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact

Firstly global warming issue caused by greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) which comes from human activities. Along with increasing of daily need, that humans of activities food produce is also increase, include of tofu. Tofu is a traditional Indonesian specialty made from soybeans and used as a side dish. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of global warming from tofu products on Mampang Prapatan's Small Tofu and Medium Enterprises. The method used in this study is the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method with the help of Simapro 8.4 software with a 1 kg tofu functional unit. The data collected in this study is the average data of tofu production for 3 months, namely January - March 2018. The LCA data in this study include the process of soybean cultivation, transportation processes for shipping soybeans, water, fuel wood, and electricity use. The limitations of this study are from cradle (soybean cultivation) to gate (tofu products).The results showed that UKM Mampang Prapatan has the potential impact of global warming with a value of 3.84 kg CO2-eq, while the value of global warming in the production process knows the scenario of wastewater treatment and the use of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as fuel for boiling pulp 4.49 kg CO2-eq soybeans. Based on the results of this study, greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions are issued; the intervention that can be done is to optimize the use of raw materials for production to reduce the impact of CO2-eq kg global warming.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Revisiting the existence of the global warming slowdown during the early 21st century

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-40
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Global Temperature Change

Abstract There are heated debates on the existence of the global warming slowdown during the early 21st century. Although efforts have been made to clarify or reconcile the controversy over the issue, it is not explicitly addressed, restricting the understanding of global temperature change particularly under the background of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations. Here, using extensive temperature datasets, we comprehensively reexamine the existence of the slowdown under all existing definitions during all decadal-scale periods spanning 1990-2017. Results show that the short-term linear-trend dependent definitions of slowdown make its identification severely suffer from the period selection bias, which largely explains the controversy over its existence. Also, the controversy is further aggravated by the significant impacts of the differences between various datasets on the recent temperature trend and the different baselines for measuring slowdown prescribed by various definitions. However, when the focus is shifted from specific periods to the probability of slowdown events, we find the probability is significantly higher in the 2000s than in the 1990s, regardless of which definition and dataset are adopted. This supports a slowdown during the early 21st century relative to the warming surge in the late 20th century, despite higher greenhouse-gas concentrations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this decadal-scale slowdown is not incompatible with the centennial-scale anthropogenic warming trend, which has been accelerating since 1850 and never pauses or slows. This work partly reconciles the controversy over the existence of the warming slowdown and the discrepancy between the slowdown and anthropogenic warming.

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