Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21st and around 25 % at the end of 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22nd century or later.

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Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (5) ◽

pp. 3469-3483 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Pavle Arsenovic ◽

Eugene Rozanov ◽

Julien Anet ◽

Andrea Stenke ◽

Werner Schmutz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Solar Activity ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

21St Century ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Solar Minimum ◽

Climate Model ◽

Ozone Production ◽

22Nd Century ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry–climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m−2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

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Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

10.5194/acp-2021-149 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ville Maliniemi ◽

Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽

Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽

Pavle Arsenovic ◽

Daniel R. Marsh

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Model ◽

Energetic Electron ◽

Ozone Production ◽

The Arctic ◽

Gas Emissions ◽

Antarctic Ozone ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

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Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative?

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18115567 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 5567

Author(s):

Moneim Massar ◽

Imran Reza ◽

Syed Masiur Rahman ◽

Sheikh Muhammad Habib Abdullah ◽

Arshad Jamal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Autonomous Vehicles ◽

Significant Contribution ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Interval Estimate ◽

Modal Shift ◽

Vehicle Mile Travel ◽

Emission Changes ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

The Impact

The potential effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are uncertain, although numerous studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact. This paper aims to synthesize and review all the literature regarding the topic in a systematic manner to eliminate the bias and provide an overall insight, while incorporating some statistical analysis to provide an interval estimate of these studies. This paper addressed the effect of the positive and negative impacts reported in the literature in two categories of AVs: partial automation and full automation. The positive impacts represented in AVs’ possibility to reduce GHG emission can be attributed to some factors, including eco-driving, eco traffic signal, platooning, and less hunting for parking. The increase in vehicle mile travel (VMT) due to (i) modal shift to AVs by captive passengers, including elderly and disabled people and (ii) easier travel compared to other modes will contribute to raising the GHG emissions. The result shows that eco-driving and platooning have the most significant contribution to reducing GHG emissions by 35%. On the other side, easier travel and faster travel significantly contribute to the increase of GHG emissions by 41.24%. Study findings reveal that the positive emission changes may not be realized at a lower AV penetration rate, where the maximum emission reduction might take place within 60–80% of AV penetration into the network.

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Modelling the impact of megacities on local, regional and global tropospheric ozone and the deposition of nitrogen species

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-13-12215-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (24) ◽

pp. 12215-12231 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Z. S. Stock ◽

M. R. Russo ◽

T. M. Butler ◽

A. T. Archibald ◽

M. G. Lawrence ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Global Scale ◽

Chemical Environment ◽

Ozone Production ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

Local Emissions

Abstract. We examine the effects of ozone precursor emissions from megacities on present-day air quality using the global chemistry–climate model UM-UKCA (UK Met Office Unified Model coupled to the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model). The sensitivity of megacity and regional ozone to local emissions, both from within the megacity and from surrounding regions, is important for determining air quality across many scales, which in turn is key for reducing human exposure to high levels of pollutants. We use two methods, perturbation and tagging, to quantify the impact of megacity emissions on global ozone. We also completely redistribute the anthropogenic emissions from megacities, to compare changes in local air quality going from centralised, densely populated megacities to decentralised, lower density urban areas. Focus is placed not only on how changes to megacity emissions affect regional and global NOx and O3, but also on changes to NOy deposition and to local chemical environments which are perturbed by the emission changes. The perturbation and tagging methods show broadly similar megacity impacts on total ozone, with the perturbation method underestimating the contribution partially because it perturbs the background chemical environment. The total redistribution of megacity emissions locally shifts the chemical environment towards more NOx-limited conditions in the megacities, which is more conducive to ozone production, and monthly mean surface ozone is found to increase up to 30% in megacities, depending on latitude and season. However, the displacement of emissions has little effect on the global annual ozone burden (0.12% change). Globally, megacity emissions are shown to contribute ~3% of total NOy deposition. The changes in O3, NOx and NOy deposition described here are useful for quantifying megacity impacts and for understanding the sensitivity of megacity regions to local emissions. The small global effects of the 100% redistribution carried out in this study suggest that the distribution of emissions on the local scale is unlikely to have large implications for chemistry–climate processes on the global scale.

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Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-8-20223-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 20223-20237 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

F. Li ◽

R. S. Stolarski ◽

P. A. Newman

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

21St Century ◽

Crucial Role ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Advective Transport ◽

Recent Past ◽

Column Ozone ◽

The Tropics

Abstract. Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

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Impacts of Government Policies, Fuel Cell Cost, and Battery Cost on Greenhouse Gas Emission of Light-Duty Vehicles

Volume 4: 18th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference; 2013 ASME/IEEE International Conference on Mechatronic and Embedded Systems and Applications ◽

10.1115/detc2013-12701 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Swithin S. Razu ◽

Shun Takai

Keyword(s):

Public Policy ◽

Fuel Cell ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Government Policies ◽

Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽

Enterprise Model ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of public government policies, fuel cell cost, and battery cost on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US transportation sector. The model includes a government model and an enterprise model. To examine the effect on GHG emissions that fuel cell and battery cost has, the optimization model includes public policy, fuel cell and battery cost, and a market mix focusing on the GHG effects of four different types of vehicles, 1) gasoline-based 2) gasoline-electric hybrid or alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs), 3) battery-electric (BEVs) and 4) fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs). The public policies taken into consideration are infrastructure investments for hydrogen fueling stations and subsidies for purchasing AFVs. For each selection of public policy, fuel cell cost and battery cost in the government model, the enterprise model finds the optimum vehicle design that maximizes profit and updates the market mix, from which the government model can estimate GHG emissions. This paper demonstrates the model using FCV design as an illustrative example.

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Effect of wheat varieties and growth regulators on soil greenhouse gas emissions

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8605 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elsbe von der Lancken ◽

Victoria Nasser ◽

Katharina Hey ◽

Stefan Siebert ◽

Ana Meijide

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Growth Regulators ◽

Production Systems ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Closed Chamber ◽

Wheat Varieties ◽

The Impact ◽

Modern Varieties

The need to sustain global food demand while mitigating greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is a challenge for agricultural production systems. Since the reduction of GHGs has never been a breeding target, it is still unclear to which extend different crop varieties will affect GHG emissions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of N-fertilization and of the use of growth regulators applied to three historical and three modern varieties of winter wheat on the emissions of the three most important anthropogenic GHGs, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Furthermore, we aimed at identifying which combination of cultivars and management practises could mitigate GHG emissions in agricultural systems without compromising the yield. GHG measurements were performed using the closed chamber method in a field experiment located in G&#246;ttingen (Germany) evaluating three historical and three modern winter wheat varieties, with or without growth regulators under two fertilization levels (120 and 240&#160;kg nitrogen ha-1). GHG measurements were carried out for 2 weeks following the third nitrogen fertilizer application (where one third of the total nitrogen was applied), together with studies on the evolution of mineral nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon in the soil. Modern varieties showed significantly higher CO2 emissions (i.e. soil and plant respiration; +23&#160;%) than historical varieties. The soils were found to be a sink for CH4, but CH4 fluxes were not affected by the different treatments. N2O emissions were not significantly influenced by the variety age or by the growth regulators, and emissions increased with increasing fertilization level. The global warming potential (GWP) for the modern varieties was 7284.0 &#177; 266.9&#160;kg CO2-eq ha-1. Even though the GWP was lower for the historic varieties (5939.5 &#177; 238.2&#160;kg CO2-eq ha-1), their greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), which relates GHG and crop yield, was larger (1.5 &#177; 0.3&#160;g CO2-eq g-1 grain), compared to the GHGI of modern varieties (0.9 &#177; 0.0&#160;g CO2-eq g-1 grain), due to the much lower grain yield in the historic varieties. Our results suggest that in order to mitigate GHG emissions without compromising the grain yield, the best management practise is to use modern high yielding varieties with growth regulators and a fertilization scheme according to the demand of the crop.

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Atmospheric impacts of short-lived chlorinated species over the recent past: a chemistry-climate perspective

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12824 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ewa Bednarz ◽

Ryan Hossaini ◽

Luke Abraham ◽

Peter Braesicke ◽

Martyn Chipperfield

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Lower Boundary ◽

Montreal Protocol ◽

Recent Past ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

Ozone Depleting Substances ◽

The Impact

The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl3) and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised.&#160;&#160;We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (CCM). While not only the first, to our knowledge, model study addressing this problem using a CCM, it is also the first such study employing a whole atmosphere model, thereby simulating the tropospheric Cl-VSLSs emissions and the resulting stratospheric impacts in a fully consistent manner. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs.&#160;We examine the impacts of rising Cl-VSLSs emissions on atmospheric chlorine tracers and ozone, including their long-term trends. We pay particular attention to the role of &#8216;nudging&#8217;, as opposed to the free-running model set up, for the simulated Cl-VSLSs impacts, thereby demostrating the role of atmospheric dynamics in modulating the atmospheric responses to Cl-VSLSs. In addition, we employ novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions over the recent past and compare the results with the simulations that prescribe Cl-VSLSs using simple lower boundary conditions. This allows us to demonstrate the impact such choice has on the dominant location and seasonality of the Cl-VSLSs transport into the stratosphere.

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Petroleum Industry

Natural Resources Management ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-0803-8.ch011 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 213-241

Author(s):

Lidia Hrnčević

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Global Climate ◽

Petroleum Industry ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

High Energy ◽

Global Market ◽

Special Focus ◽

Global Industry ◽

High Emission ◽

The Impact

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur, more or less, in all aspects of the petroleum industry's activities. Besides the direct emissions of some GHG, the petroleum industry is also characterised with high energy intensity usually followed by emissions of adverse gases, especially at old facilities, and also the products with high emission potential. Being the global industry and one of the major players on global market, the petroleum industry is also subjected to global regulatory provisions regarding GHG emissions. In this chapter, the impact of global climate change on the petroleum industry is discussed. The emissions from the petroleum industry are analysed with a special focus on greenhouse gases that occur in petroleum industry activities and types and sources of emissions from the petroleum industry activities. In addition, recommendations for estimation, monitoring, and reductions of GHG emissions from the petroleum industry are given.

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Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Hot Spots in the Light of a Weakening Sun

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0059.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (9) ◽

pp. 3431-3447

Author(s):

Tobias Spiegl ◽

Ulrike Langematz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hot Spots ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

First Century ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

The Impact

AbstractSatellite measurements over the last three decades show a gradual decrease in solar output, which can be indicative as a precursor to a modern grand solar minimum (GSM). Using a chemistry–climate model, this study investigates the potential of two GSM scenarios with different magnitude to counteract the climate change by projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the twenty-first century. To identify regions showing enhanced vulnerability to climate change (hot spots) and to estimate their response to a possible modern GSM, a multidimensional metric is applied that accounts for—in addition to changes in mean quantities—seasonal changes in the variability and occurrence of extreme events. We find that a future GSM in the middle of the twenty-first century would temporarily mitigate the global mean impact of anthropogenic climate change by 10%–23% depending on the GSM scenario. A future GSM would, however, not be able to stop anthropogenic global warming. For the GHG-only scenario, our hot-spot analysis suggests that the midlatitudes show a response to rising GHGs below global average, while in the tropics, climate change hot spots with more frequent extreme hot seasons will develop during the twenty-first century. A GSM would reduce the climate change warming in all regions. The GHG-induced warming in Arctic winter would be dampened in a GSM due to the impact of reduced solar irradiance on Arctic sea ice. However, even an extreme GSM could only mitigate a fraction of the tropical hot-spot pattern (up to 24%) in the long term.

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