scholarly journals Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multi-estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Stefan Kinne ◽  
W. T. Katty Huang ◽  
Petri Räisänen ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Distribution ◽  
Absolute Magnitudes ◽  
Small Change ◽  
Natural Aerosol

Abstract. The radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol remains a key uncertainty in the understanding of climate change. This study quantifies the model spread in aerosol forcing associated with (i) variability internal to the atmosphere and (ii) differences in the model representation of weather. We do so by performing ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with four state-of-the-art Earth system models, three of which will be used in the sixth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP6, Eyring et al., 2016). In those models we reduce the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol by prescribing the same annually-repeating patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud reflectivity. We quantify a comparably small model spread in the long-term averaged ERF compared to the overall possible range in annual ERF estimates associated with model-internal variability. This implies that identifying the true model spread in ERF associated with differences in the representation of meteorological processes and natural aerosol requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of annual estimates. We characterize the model diversity in clouds and use satellite products as benchmarks. Despite major inter-model differences in natural aerosol and clouds, all models show only a small change in the global-mean ERF due to the substantial change in the global anthropogenic aerosol distribution between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s, the ensemble mean ERF being −0.47 Wm−2 for the mid-1970s and −0.51 Wm−2 for the mid-2000s. This result suggests that inter-comparing ERF changes between two periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to pre-industrial might provide a more stringent test for a model's ability for representing climate evolutions.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 6821-6841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Stefan Kinne ◽  
Wan Ting Katty Huang ◽  
Petri Räisänen ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Absolute Magnitudes ◽  
Natural Aerosols

Abstract. This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from −0.4 to −0.9 W m−2. The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m−2, based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is −0.54 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and −0.59 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.

scholarly journals Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 9591-9618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Ryan J. Kramer ◽  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
Kari Alterskjær ◽  
William Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’”

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6585-6589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Stephanie Fiedler
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
The North ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

Kretzschmar et al., in a comment in 2017, use the spread in the output of aerosol–climate models to argue that the models refute the hypothesis (presented in a paper by Stevens in 2015) that for the mid-twentieth-century warming to be consistent with observations, then the present-day aerosol forcing, [Formula: see text] must be less negative than −1 W m−2. The main point of contention is the nature of the relationship between global SO2 emissions and [Formula: see text] In contrast to the concave (log-linear) relationship used by Stevens and in earlier studies, whereby [Formula: see text] becomes progressively less sensitive to SO2 emissions, some models suggest a convex relationship, which would imply a less negative lower bound. The model that best exemplifies this difference, and that is most clearly in conflict with the hypothesis of Stevens, does so because of an implausible aerosol response to the initial rise in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions in East and South Asia—already in 1975 this model’s clear-sky reflectance from anthropogenic aerosol over the North Pacific exceeds present-day estimates of the clear-sky reflectance by the total aerosol. The authors perform experiments using a new (observationally constrained) climatology of anthropogenic aerosols to further show that the effects of changing patterns of aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions during the late twentieth century have, for the same global emissions, relatively little effect on [Formula: see text] These findings suggest that the behavior Kretzschmar et al. identify as being in conflict with the lower bound in Stevens arises from an implausible relationship between SO2 emissions and [Formula: see text] and thus provides little basis for revising this lower bound.

scholarly journals Reduced complexity model intercomparison project phase 1: Protocol, results and initial observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Jared Lewis ◽  
Robert Gieseke ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Complexity

Abstract. Here we present results from the first phase of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). RCMIP is a systematic examination of reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which are used to complement and extend the insights from more complex Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular those participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In Phase 1 of RCMIP, with 14 participating models namely ACC2, AR5IR (2 and 3 box versions), CICERO-SCM, ESCIMO, FaIR, GIR, GREB, Hector, Held et al. two layer model, MAGICC, MCE, OSCAR and WASP, we highlight the structural differences across various RCMs and show that RCMs are capable of reproducing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) changes of ESMs and historical observations. We find that some RCMs are capable of emulating the GSAT response of CMIP6 models to within a root-mean square error of 0.2 °C (of the same order of magnitude as ESM internal variability) over a range of scenarios. Running the same model configurations for both RCP and SSP scenarios, we see that the SSPs exhibit higher effective radiative forcing throughout the second half of the 21st Century. Comparing our results to the difference between CMIP5 and CMIP6 output, we find that the change in scenario explains approximately 46 % of the increase in higher end projected warming between CMIP5 and CMIP6. This suggests that changes in ESMs from CMIP5 to CMIP6 explain the rest of the increase, hence the higher climate sensitivities of available CMIP6 models may not be having as large an impact on GSAT projections as first anticipated. A second phase of RCMIP will complement RCMIP Phase 1 by exploring probabilistic results and emulation in more depth to provide results available for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report author teams.

scholarly journals Comparison of Anthropogenic Aerosol Climate Effects among Three Climate Models with Reduced Complexity

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangjun Shi ◽  
Wentao Zhang ◽  
Jiaojiao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Cloud Forcing ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Difference

The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is consistent with the design of this aerosol forcing. The modeled ERF can be decomposed into two basic components, i.e., the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and the aerosol-induced changes in cloud forcing (△Fcloud*). For the three participating models, the model diversity in RFari (−0.21, −0.33, and −0.29 W∙m−2) could be constrained by reducing the differences in natural aerosol radiative forcings. However, it was difficult to figure out the reason for the model diversity in △Fcloud* (−0.05, −0.28, and −0.24 W∙m−2), which was the dominant source of the model diversity in ERF. The variability of modeled ERF was also studied. Ensemble simulations showed that the modeled RFs were very stable. The rapid adjustments (ERF − RF) had an important role to play in the quantification of the perturbation of ERF. Fortunately, the contribution from the rapid adjustments to the mean ERF was very small. This study also showed that we should pay attention to the difference between the aerosol climate effects we want and the aerosol climate effects we calculate.

scholarly journals A Limited Role for Unforced Internal Variability in Twentieth-Century Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 4893-4917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto ◽  
Victor Venema ◽  
Peter Jacobs ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
The North ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

AbstractThe early twentieth-century warming (EW; 1910–45) and the mid-twentieth-century cooling (MC; 1950–80) have been linked to both internal variability of the climate system and changes in external radiative forcing. The degree to which either of the two factors contributed to EW and MC, or both, is still debated. Using a two-box impulse response model, we demonstrate that multidecadal ocean variability was unlikely to be the driver of observed changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after AD 1850. Instead, virtually all (97%–98%) of the global low-frequency variability (>30 years) can be explained by external forcing. We find similarly high percentages of explained variance for interhemispheric and land–ocean temperature evolution. Three key aspects are identified that underpin the conclusion of this new study: inhomogeneous anthropogenic aerosol forcing (AER), biases in the instrumental sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, and inadequate representation of the response to varying forcing factors. Once the spatially heterogeneous nature of AER is accounted for, the MC period is reconcilable with external drivers. SST biases and imprecise forcing responses explain the putative disagreement between models and observations during the EW period. As a consequence, Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is found to be primarily controlled by external forcing too. Future attribution studies should account for these important factors when discriminating between externally forced and internally generated influences on climate. We argue that AMV must not be used as a regressor and suggest a revised AMV index instead [the North Atlantic Variability Index (NAVI)]. Our associated best estimate for the transient climate response (TCR) is 1.57 K (±0.70 at the 5%–95% confidence level).

scholarly journals Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4038-4048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro N. DiNezio ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Amy C. Clement
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Abstract Changes in the gradients in sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) along the equatorial Pacific are analyzed in observations and 101 numerical experiments performed with 37 climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The ensemble of numerical experiments simulates changes in the earth’s climate during the 1870–2004 period in response to changes in natural (solar variations and volcanoes) and anthropogenic (well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, direct aerosol forcing, and land use) radiative forcings. A reduction in the zonal SLP gradient is present in observational records and is the typical response of the ensemble, yet only 26 out of the 101 experiments exhibit a reduced SLP gradient within 95% statistical confidence of the observed value. The multimodel response indicates a reduction of the Walker circulation to historical forcings, albeit an order of magnitude smaller than the observed value. There are multiple nonexclusive interpretations of these results: (i) the observed trend may not be entirely forced and includes a substantial component from internal variability; (ii) there are problems with the observational record that lead to a spuriously large trend; and (iii) the strength of the Walker circulation, as measured by the zonal SLP gradient, may be less sensitive to external forcing in models than in the real climate system. Analysis of a subset of experiments suggests that greenhouse gases act to weaken the circulation, but aerosol forcing drives a strengthening of the circulation, which appears to be overestimated by the models, resulting in a muted response to the combined anthropogenic forcings.

Implication of the reduction in anthropogenic aerosols due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery scenarios for radiative forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Klaus Wyser ◽  
Rogelj Joeri ◽  
Twan van Noije
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented reductions in socio-economic activities. Associated decreases in anthropogenic aerosol emissions are not represented in the original CMIP6 emission scenarios. Here we estimate the implications of the pandemic for the aerosol forcing in 2020 and quantify the spread in aerosol forcing associated with the differences in the post-pandemic recovery pathways. To this end, we use new emission scenarios taking the COVID-19 crisis into account and projecting different socio-economic developments until 2050 with fossil-fuel based and green pathways (Forster et al., 2020). We use the new emission data to generate input for the anthropogenic aerosol parameterization MACv2-SP for CMIP6 models. In this presentation, we first show the results for the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth and associated effects on clouds from the new MACv2-SP data for 2020 to 2050 (Fiedler et al., in review). We then use the MACv2-SP data to provide estimates of the effective radiative effects of the anthropogenic aerosols for 2020 and 2050. Our forcing estimates are based on new atmosphere-only simulations with the CMIP6 model EC-Earth3. The model uses MACv2-SP to represent aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions including aerosol effects on cloud lifetime. For each anthropogenic aerosol pattern, we run EC-Earth3 simulations for fifty years to substantially reduce the impact of model-internal variability on the forcing estimate. Our results highlight: (1) a change of +0.04 Wm<sup>-2</sup> in the global mean effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols for 2020 due to the pandemic, which is small compared to the magnitude of internal variability, (2) a spread of -0.38 to -0.68 Wm<sup>-2</sup> for the effective radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols in 2050 depending on the recovery scenario in MACv2-SP, and (3) a more negative (stronger) anthropogenic aerosol forcing for a strong green than a moderate green development in 2050 due to higher ammonium emissions in a highly decarbonized society (Fiedler et al., in review). The new MACv2-SP data are now used in climate models participating in the model intercomparison project on the climate response to the COVID-19 crisis (Covid-MIP, Jones et al., in review, Lamboll et al., in review).</p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Fiedler, S., Wyser, K., Joeri, R., and van Noije, T.: Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery, in review, [preprint] https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504704.1.</p><p>Forster, P.M., Forster, H.I., Evans, M.J. et al.: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 913–919, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.</p><p>Jones. C., Hickman, J., Rumbold, S., et al.: The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19, Geophy. Res. Lett., in review.</p><p>Lamboll, R. D., Jones, C. D., Skeie, R. B., Fiedler, S., Samset, B. H., Gillett, N. P., Rogelj, J., and Forster, P. M.: Modifying emission scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for Covid-MIP, in review, [preprint] https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-373.</p>

Effective Radiative Forcing and Adjustments in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Smith ◽  
Ryan Kramer ◽  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
Kari Alterskjær ◽  
Bill Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Contemporary Climate ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmsophere and surface, as emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and atmospheric adjustments in 13 contemporary climate models that are participating in CMIP6 and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) from climate models stands at 1.97 (± 0.26) W m<sup>-2</sup>, comprised of 1.80 (± 0.11) W m<sup>-2</sup> from CO<sub>2</sub>, 1.07 (± 0.21) W m<sup>-2</sup> from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, -1.04 (± 0.23) W m<sup>-2</sup> from aerosols and -0.08 (± 0.14) W m<sup>-2</sup> from land use change. Quoted ranges are one standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90% confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m<sup>-2</sup>. The majority of the remaining 0.17 W m<sup>-2</sup> is likely to be from ozone. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the "traditional" stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing, but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total forcing. The spread of present-day aerosol forcing has narrowed compared to CMIP5 models to the range of -0.63 to -1.37 W m<sup>-2</sup>, with a less negative mean. The spread in CO<sub>2</sub> forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, which may be a consequence of improving radiative transfer parameterisations. We also find that present-day aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with equilibrium climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the higher climate sensitivity in many CMIP6 models is a consequence of stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing.</p>

scholarly journals Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Hydrological Sensitivity

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (17) ◽  
pp. 6167-6178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy DelSole ◽  
Xiaoqin Yan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Hydrological Sensitivity ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Hydrological sensitivity is the change in global-mean precipitation per degree of global-mean temperature change. This paper shows that the hydrological sensitivity of the response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is distinct from that of the combined response to all other forcings and that this difference is sufficient to infer the associated cooling in global-mean temperature. This result is demonstrated using temperature and precipitation data generated by climate models and is robust across different climate models. Remarkably, greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling can be estimated in a model without using any spatial or temporal gradient information in the response, provided temperature data are augmented by precipitation data. Over the late twentieth century, the hydrological sensitivities of climate models differ significantly from that of observations. Whether this discrepancy can be attributed to observational error, which is substantial as different estimates of global-mean precipitation are not even significantly correlated with each other, or to model error is unclear. The results highlight the urgency to construct accurate estimates of global precipitation from past observations and for reducing model uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity. This paper also clarifies that previous estimates of hydrological sensitivity are limited in that standard regression methods neglect temperature–precipitation relations that occur through internal variability. An alternative method for estimating hydrological sensitivity that overcomes this limitation is presented.

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