scholarly journals Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: “Kursk" submarine study

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1515-1556 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Baklanov ◽  
A. Mahura ◽  
J. H. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dispersion Modelling ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Atmospheric Releases ◽  
Fast Transport ◽  
Transport Patterns ◽  
Integral Concentration

Abstract. There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second – during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 1011 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10−12 – 10−13 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

scholarly journals Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 747-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Baklanov ◽  
A. Mahura ◽  
J. H. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dispersion Modelling ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Atmospheric Releases ◽  
Fast Transport ◽  
Transport Patterns ◽  
Integral Concentration

Abstract. There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

Aggregation of Selected Three-Day Periods to Estimate Annual and Seasonal Wet Deposition Totals for Sulfate, Nitrate, and Acidity. Part I: A Synoptic and Chemical Climatology for Eastern North America

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey R. Brook ◽  
Perry J. Samson ◽  
Sanford Sillman
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Statistical Correlation ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
Transport Patterns

Abstract Running 3-day periods from 1979 to 1985 were categorised into one of 20 meteorological categories. These categories were developed through the cluster analysis of 3-day progressions of 85-kPa wind flow over eastern North America. The purpose for developing the categories was to identify recurring atmospheric transport patterns that were associated with differing amounts of wet sulfate (SO2−4) and nitrate (NO−3) deposition at a variety of locations in eastern North America. Identification of these patterns was necessary to facilitate the selection of time periods for simulation by the Regional Acid Deposition Model and in the development of a method for estimating long-term acidic deposition over eastern North America from a limited number of model runs. The effectiveness of this method (referred to as the aggregation method) was expected to be dependent on the ability of the categories to separate structure in wet deposition patterns. This paper describes the determination of the 20 meteorological categories and demonstrates that there were differences in their meteorological and chemical behavior and in their frequency of occurrence. Observations of precipitation and wet SO2−4 and NO−3 deposition from 22 sites in eastern North America and multiple regression models were used to demonstrate that there were statistically significant differences in deposition among categories and that knowledge of meteorological category explained some of the variation in wet deposition. The best statistical correlation, which was based upon precipitation amount, time of year, and meteorological category, explained 35%–83% (28%– 76%) of the observed variation in wet SO2−4 (NO−3) deposition depending on location. On average, across all sites and for both SO2−4 and NO−3, knowledge of category accounted for about 4% of the variation. The minimum amount explained by category was 1% and the maximum was 13%.

scholarly journals Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 485-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Baklanov ◽  
A. G. Mahura
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
Fast Transport ◽  
Accidental Releases ◽  
Probabilistic Point

Abstract. The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered. The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site regions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodology is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are: What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical accidental releases? To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research tools for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modelling to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites. Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatial structure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilistic impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport, typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency response and preparedness systems.

scholarly journals Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites – Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 5319-5356
Author(s):  
A. G. Mahura ◽  
A. A. Baklanov
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Transport Patterns ◽  
Trajectory Modelling

Abstract. The probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger.

scholarly journals Tooth loss in complying and non-complying periodontitis patients with different periodontal risk levels during supportive periodontal care

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Farina ◽  
Anna Simonelli ◽  
Andrea Baraldi ◽  
Mattia Pramstraller ◽  
Luigi Minenna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Treatment ◽  
Clinical Relevance ◽  
Tooth Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Recall Interval ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Periodontal Risk

Abstract Objectives To evaluate yearly tooth loss rate (TLR) in periodontitis patients with different periodontal risk levels who had complied or not complied with supportive periodontal care (SPC). Materials and methods Data from 168 periodontitis patients enrolled in a SPC program based on a 3-month suggested recall interval for at least 3.5 years were analyzed. For patients with a mean recall interval within 2–4 months (“compliers”) or > 4 months (“non-compliers”) with different PerioRisk levels (Trombelli et al. 2009), TLR (irrespective of the cause for tooth loss) was calculated. TLR values were considered in relation to meaningful TLR benchmarks from the literature for periodontitis patients either under SPC (0.15 teeth/year; positive benchmark) or irregularly complying with SPC (0.36 teeth/year; negative benchmark). Results In both compliers and non-compliers, TLR was significantly below or similar to the positive benchmark in PerioRisk level 3 (0.08 and 0.03 teeth/year, respectively) and PerioRisk level 4 (0.12 and 0.18 teeth/year, respectively). Although marked and clinically relevant in non-compliers, the difference between TLR of compliers (0.32 teeth/year) and non-compliers (0.52 teeth/year) with PerioRisk level 5 and the negative benchmark was not significant. Conclusion A SPC protocol based on a 3- to 6-month recall interval may effectively limit long-term tooth loss in periodontitis patients with PerioRisk levels 3 and 4. A fully complied 3-month SPC protocol seems ineffective when applied to PerioRisk level 5 patients. Clinical relevance PerioRisk seems to represent a valid tool to inform the SPC recall interval as well as the intensity of active treatment prior to SPC enrollment.

scholarly journals Verification of greenhouse gas emission reductions: the prospect of atmospheric monitoring in polluted areas

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1943) ◽  
pp. 1906-1924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingeborg Levin ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Elke Eichelmann ◽  
Felix R. Vogel
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling

Independent verification of greenhouse gas emissions reporting is a legal requirement of the Kyoto Protocol, which has not yet been fully accomplished. Here, we show that dedicated long-term atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), continuously conducted at polluted sites can provide the necessary tool for this undertaking. From our measurements at the semi-polluted Heidelberg site in the upper Rhine Valley, we find that in the catchment area CH 4 emissions decreased on average by 32±6% from the second half of the 1990s until the first half of the 2000s, but the observed long-term trend of emissions is considerably smaller than that previously reported for southwest Germany. In contrast, regional fossil fuel CO 2 levels, estimated from high-precision 14 CO 2 observations, do not show any significant decreasing trend since 1986, in agreement with the reported emissions for this region. In order to provide accurate verification, these regional measurements would best be accompanied by adequate atmospheric transport modelling as required to precisely determine the relevant catchment area of the measurements. Furthermore, reliable reconciliation of reported emissions will only be possible if these are known at high spatial resolution in the catchment area of the observations. This information should principally be available in all countries that regularly report their greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

scholarly journals Two decades of in-situ temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere from IAGOS long-term routine observation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Berkes ◽  
Patrick Neis ◽  
Martin G. Schultz ◽  
Ulrich Bundke ◽  
Susanne Rohs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Geographical Regions

Abstract. Despite several studies on temperature trends in the tropopause region, a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of temperatures in this climate-sensitive region of the atmosphere remains elusive. Here we present a unique global-scale, long-term data set of high-resolution in-situ temperature data measured aboard passenger aircraft within the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System, www.iagos.org). This data set is used to investigate temperature trends within the global upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) for the period 1995 to 2012 in different geographical regions and vertical layers of the UTLS. The largest amount of observations is available over the North Atlantic. Here, a neutral temperature trend is found within the lowermost stratosphere. This contradicts the temperature trend in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, where a significant (95 % confidence) temperature increase of +0.56 K/decade is obtained. Differences between trends derived from observations and reanalysis data can be traced back to changes in the temperature bias between observation and model data over the studied period. This study demonstrates the value of the IAGOS temperature observations as anchor point for the evaluation of reanalyses and its suitability for independent trend analyses.

Long-Term Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Heavy Metals in Central Europe

1996 ◽  
pp. 659-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerzy Bartnicki ◽  
Krzysztof Olendrzynski ◽  
Jòzef Pacyna ◽  
Stefan Anderberg ◽  
William Stigliani
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Atmospheric Transport
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