scholarly journals The Response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 9867-9897 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. N. Racherla ◽  
P. J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Ozone Episodes

Abstract. We examined the response of surface ozone to future climate change over the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s) climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050 s decade, resulting in an increase in the global annual-average surface air temperature by 1.7°C, with a 1.4°C increase over the surface layer of the eastern United States. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive natural emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. There is practically zero change in the spatiotemporally averaged ozone mixing ratios predicted over the eastern United States. However, the severity and frequency of ozone episodes over the eastern United States increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased ozone chemical production due to increased natural isoprene emissions. The 95th percentile ozone mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range. The most substantial and statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic United States, largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are consistent features of the predicted seasonal surface ozone response, with the former's magnitude for a location largely a function of increased natural isoprene emissions, and the latter largely due to faster dry deposition removal rates. Future climate change is also predicted to lengthen the ozone season over the eastern United States to include late spring and early fall. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of ozone episodes and we find that it is necessary to utilize 5 years or more of simulation data in order to separate the effects of interannual variability and climate change on ozone episodes.

scholarly journals The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 871-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. N. Racherla ◽  
P. J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Primary Standard ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3) to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s) climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1) natural isoprene emissions; 2) hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3) NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05) increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3 episodes and we find that it is necessary to utilize 5 years or more of simulation data in order to separate the effects of interannual variability and climate change on O3 episodes in the eastern United States.

scholarly journals Integrating the InVEST and SDSM Model for Estimating Water Provision Services in Response to Future Climate Change in Monsoon Basins of South China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3199
Author(s):  
Dong Yang ◽  
Wen Liu ◽  
Chaohao Xu ◽  
Lizhi Tao ◽  
Xianli Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South China ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Water Provision

An assessment of how future climate change will impact water provision services is important for formulating rational water resources management and development strategies as well as for ecosystem protection. The East Asian monsoon is an important component of the Asian climate and its changes affect the climate in East Asia and seriously affect the provision of water services. In this study, through the coupling of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Statistical Downscaling Technique Model (SDSM), we evaluated the impact of future climate change on water provisions in a typical East Asian monsoon basin of South China. The results demonstrate the applicability of the InVEST model combined with the SDSM model over the East Asian monsoon river basins. Under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures would continually increase far into the future (2080–2095). However, the maximum and minimum temperatures slightly decreased under representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6) in the far future (2080–2095). The annual average precipitation and reference evapotranspiration experienced slight but steady increasing trends under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Based on the InVEST model simulation, annual average water yield would increase by 19.3% (33.5%) far in the future (2080–2095) under RCP2.6 (4.5) scenario. This study provides a valuable reference for studying future climate change impacts on water provisions in East Asian monsoon basins.

scholarly journals Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in US

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 2183-2231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. F. Lam ◽  
J. S. Fu ◽  
S. Wu ◽  
L. J. Mickley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Future Emissions

Abstract. Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases) to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10% or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8) over the Eastern United States. For PM2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40% lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60% of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO4 and NO3 particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10% or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM2.5 by 5% or 1.0 μg/m3 in the Southeast region.

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (10) ◽  
pp. 2491-2496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Shen ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Northeast Pacific ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Climate Patterns ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Ozone Episodes

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Effects of ozone and climate on historical (1980-2015) crop yields in the United States: Implication for mid-21st century projection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yabin Da ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Bruce McCarl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ozone Exposure ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution

&lt;p&gt;Surface ozone pollution has been proven to impose significant damages on crops. However, the quantification of the damages was extensively derived from chamber experiments, which is not representative of actual results in farm fields due to the limitations of spatial scale, time window, etc. In this work, we attempt to empirically fill this gap using county-level data in the United States from 1980 to 2015. We explore ozone impacts on corn, soybeans, spring wheat, winter wheat, barley, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, and sunflower. We also incorporate a variety of climate variables to investigate potential ozone-climate interactions. More importantly, we shed light on future yield consequences of ozone and climate change individually and jointly under a moderate warming scenario. Our findings suggest significant negative impacts of ozone exposure for eight of the ten crops we examined, excepting barley and winter wheat, which contradicts experimental results. The average annual damages were estimated at $6.03 billion (in 2015 U.S. dollar) from 1980 to 2015. We also find rising temperatures tend to worsen ozone damages while water supply would mitigate that. Finally, elevated ozone driven by future climate change would cause much smaller damages than the direct effects of climate change itself.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (D22) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Katragkou ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
I. Kioutsioukis ◽  
I. Tegoulias ◽  
D. Melas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Analysis of the Economic Ripple Effect of the United States on the World due to Future Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 828-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Hong Xu ◽  
Xi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prodromos Zanis ◽  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Vaishali Naik ◽  
Sophie Szopa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96±0.07 ppbv oC-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Impacts of future climate change and emissions reductions on nitrogen and sulfur deposition over the United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthimios Tagaris ◽  
Kuo-Jen Liao ◽  
Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon ◽  
Jung-Hun Woo ◽  
Shan He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Sulfur Deposition ◽  
Emissions Reductions
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