Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts
Keyword(s):
A Minor
◽
Abstract. This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.
Keyword(s):
2002 ◽
Vol 130
(5)
◽
pp. 1433-1441
◽
2013 ◽
Vol 17
(1)
◽
pp. 1-20
◽
1992 ◽
Vol 97
(D9)
◽
pp. 10011-10028
◽
2015 ◽
Vol 8
(1)
◽
pp. 23-34
◽
Keyword(s):