scholarly journals Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2481-2513
Author(s):  
Anne Dallmeyer ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
Stephan J. Lorenz ◽  
Michael Sigl ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. We present a transient simulation of global vegetation and climate patterns of the mid- and late Holocene using the MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model) at T63 resolution. The simulated vegetation trend is discussed in the context of the simulated Holocene climate change. Our model captures the main trends found in reconstructions. Most prominent are the southward retreat of the northern treeline that is combined with the strong decrease of forest in the high northern latitudes during the Holocene and the vast increase of the Saharan desert, embedded in a general decrease in precipitation and vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon margin regions. The Southern Hemisphere experiences weaker changes in total vegetation cover during the last 8000 years. However, the monsoon-related increase in precipitation and the insolation-induced cooling of the winter climate lead to shifts in the vegetation composition, mainly between the woody plant functional types (PFTs). The large-scale global patterns of vegetation almost linearly follow the subtle, approximately linear, orbital forcing. In some regions, however, non-linear, more rapid changes in vegetation are found in the simulation. The most striking region is the Sahel–Sahara domain with rapid vegetation transitions to a rather desertic state, despite a gradual insolation forcing. Rapid shifts in the simulated vegetation also occur in the high northern latitudes, in South Asia and in the monsoon margins of the Southern Hemisphere. These rapid changes are mainly triggered by changes in the winter temperatures, which go into, or move out of, the bioclimatic tolerance range of individual PFTs. The dynamics of the transitions are determined by dynamics of the net primary production (NPP) and the competition between PFTs. These changes mainly occur on timescales of centuries. More rapid changes in PFTs that occur within a few decades are mainly associated with the timescales of mortality and the bioclimatic thresholds implicit in the dynamic vegetation model, which have to be interpreted with caution. Most of the simulated Holocene vegetation changes outside the high northern latitudes are associated with modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoon dynamics that also affect the circulation in the extra tropics via teleconnections. Based on our simulations, we thus identify the global monsoons as the key player in Holocene climate and vegetation change.

scholarly journals Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Dallmeyer ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
Stephan J. Lorenz ◽  
Michael Sigl ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Plant Functional Types ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Functional Types ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Rapid Changes

Abstract. We present a transient simulation of global vegetation and climate patterns of the mid and late Holocene using the MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model) at T63 resolution. The simulated vegetation trend is discussed in the context of the simulated Holocene climate change. Our model captures the main trends found in reconstructions. Most prominent are the southward retreat of the northern treeline that is combined with the strong decrease of forest in the high northern latitudes during the Holocene and the vast increase of the Saharan desert, embedded in a general decrease in precipitation and vegetation in the northern hemispheric monsoon margin regions. The southern hemisphere experiences weaker changes in total vegetation cover during the last 8000 years. However, the monsoon-related increase in precipitation and the insolation-induced cooling of the winter climate lead to shifts in the vegetation composition, mainly between the woody plant functional types (PFTs). The large-scale global patterns of vegetation almost linearly follow the subtle, approximately linear, orbital forcing. In some regions, however, non-linear, more rapid changes in vegetation are found in the simulation. The most striking region is the Sahel-Sahara domain with rapid vegetation transitions to a rather desertic state, despite a gradual insolation forcing. Rapid shifts in the simulated vegetation also occur in the high northern latitudes, in South Asia and in the monsoon margins of the southern hemisphere. These rapid changes are mainly triggered by changes in the winter temperatures, which go into, or move out of, the bioclimatic tolerance range of individual PFTs (Plant Functional Types). The dynamics of the transitions are determined by dynamics of the Net Primary Production (NPP) and the competition between PFTs. These changes mainly occur on timescales of centuries. More rapid changes in PFTs that occur within a few decades are mainly associated with the time scales of mortality and the bioclimatic thresholds implicit in the dynamic vegetation model, which have to be interpreted with caution. Most of the simulated Holocene vegetation changes outside the high northern latitudes are associated with modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoon dynamics that also affect the circulation in the extra tropics via teleconnections. Based on our simulations, we thus identify the global monsoons as the key player in the Holocene climate and vegetation change.

Dominant role of the global monsoon intensity on large-scale Holocene vegetation transitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Dallmeyer ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
Ulrike Herzschuh
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Pattern ◽  
Vegetation Composition ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Northern Hemispheric

<p><span>We give an overview on the global change in mid-to late Holocene vegetation pattern derived from a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation and discuss the vegetation trend in the context of the simulated Holocene climate change. The model captures the main trends found in reconstructions. Most prominent are the southward retreat of the northern treeline, coinciding the strong reduction of forest cover in the high northern latitudes during the Holocene, and the vast increase of the Sahara desert that is embedded in a general decrease and equator-ward retreat of the vegetation in the northern hemispheric monsoon margin regions. In contrast, large parts of the extratropical North American continent experience a greening during the Holocene, caused by an increase in forest and grass cover. </span></p><p><span>While the broad forest decline in the high northern latitudes can mainly be explained by the cooling of the warm season climate, precipitation is the driving factor for the tropical and extratropical vegetation trends on the northern hemisphere south of 60°N. The model indicates that most of the changes in rainfall can be related to the weakening of the northern hemispheric monsoon systems and the response of the global atmospheric circulation to this weakening. </span></p><p><span>The southern hemisphere is less affected by changes in total vegetation cover during the last 8000 years, but the monsoon related increase in precipitation and the insolation-induced cooling of the winter climate lead to shifts in the vegetation composition, mainly in between the woody plant functional types (PFTs).</span></p><p><span>The simulated large-scale global vegetation pattern almost linearly follow the subtle, approximately linear orbital forcing. Non-linear and more rapid changes in vegetation cover occur only on a regional level. The most striking area is the western Sahel-Sahara domain that experiences a rapid vegetation decline to a rather desertic state, in line with a strong decrease in moisture availability. The model also indicates rapid shifts in the vegetation composition in some regions in the high northern latitudes, in South Asia and in the monsoon margins of the southern hemisphere. These rapid transitions are mainly triggered by changes in the winter temperatures, which go into, or move out of, the bioclimatic tolerance range of the individual PFTs defined in the model and therefore have to be interpreted differently. </span></p><p><span>In summary, our model results identify the global monsoon system as the key player in Holocene climate and vegetation history and point to a far greater importance of the monsoon systems on the extra-monsoonal regions than previously assumed. </span></p>

Hemispheric shift of the zonal mean ITCZ during the last deglaciation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chetankumar Jalihal ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz ◽  
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
Moist Static Energy Budget ◽  
Static Energy

<div> <p>The zonal-annual mean inter-hemispheric convergence zone (ITCZ) is located in the northern hemisphere in the modern climate. A transient simulation of the last deglaciation using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), suggests that the ITCZ was located in the southern hemisphere 14 kyrs ago. This shift is due to a substantial cooling of the northern hemisphere relative the southern hemisphere, after the release of melt water pulse 1a. The ITCZ compensates for these changes in the surface temperature by shifting south, thereby leading to a northward atmospheric heat transport away from the southern hemisphere. Along with the southward shift, the intensity of the precipitation within the ITCZ decreases. These changes in the intensity of precipitation can be explained by using a framework based on the moist static energy budget. We find that these changes are primarily related to the changes in the large-scale vertical motion of the atmosphere in the tropics. This affects the vertical transport of the moist static energy, and hence total gross moist stability (TGMS). </p> </div>

scholarly journals Large-Scale Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes of Net Ecosystem Production in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Da Guo ◽  
Xiaoning Song ◽  
Ronghai Hu ◽  
Xinming Zhu ◽  
Yazhen Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Geostatistical Model ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Difference

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is one of the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the world. Several studies have been conducted on the dynamic changes of grassland in the HKH region, but few have considered grassland net ecosystem productivity (NEP). In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of NEP magnitude and the influence of climate factors on the HKH region from 2001 to 2018. The NEP magnitude was obtained by calculating the difference between the net primary production (NPP) estimated by the Carnegie–Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the heterotrophic respiration (Rh) estimated by the geostatistical model. The results showed that the grassland ecosystem in the HKH region exhibited weak net carbon uptake with NEP values of 42.03 gC∙m−2∙yr−1, and the total net carbon sequestration was 0.077 Pg C. The distribution of NEP gradually increased from west to east, and in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, it gradually increased from northwest to southeast. The grassland carbon sources and sinks differed at different altitudes. The grassland was a carbon sink at 3000–5000 m, while grasslands below 3000 m and above 5000 m were carbon sources. Grassland NEP exhibited the strongest correlation with precipitation, and it had a lagging effect on precipitation. The correlation between NEP and the precipitation of the previous year was stronger than that of the current year. NEP was negatively correlated with temperature but not with solar radiation. The study of the temporal and spatial dynamics of NEP in the HKH region can provide a theoretical basis to help herders balance grazing and forage.

scholarly journals P/Halley: The Disconnection Event of 1986 April 11

1988 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 155-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.M. Bergé ◽  
G. Mahoux ◽  
A.C. Levasseur-Regourd
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Focal Length ◽  
La Réunion ◽  
Structure Dynamics ◽  
Plasma Tail

This work was carried out by an expedition organized by the S.A.F. in 1986 April to La Réunion. The aim was to observe and photograph P/Halley, within the framework of IHW, as part of the Island Network in the southern hemisphere. To be more precise, our work consisted of studying large-scale phenomena: the structure, dynamics and possible disconnection events in the plasma tail. We were lucky enough to observe one of the latter on the night of April 11/12, and describe it here.For the Island Network, IHW had a number of Schmidt telescopes (Celestron 8). One was lent to the S.A.F. and this is what we used. This telescope has a focal ratio of 1.5, with a 200-mm (8-inch) objective and 300-mm focal length. We used only Kodak TP2415 film, hypersensitized in forming gas (24h at 60°C).

scholarly journals Assessing the Response of Snow Avalanche Runout Altitudes to Climate Fluctuations Using Hierarchical Modeling: Application to 61 Winters of Data in France

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 3157-3180 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Eckert ◽  
H. Baya ◽  
M. Deschatres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Level Shift ◽  
Snow Avalanches ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Snow avalanches are natural hazards strongly controlled by the mountain winter climate, but their recent response to climate change has thus far been poorly documented. In this paper, hierarchical modeling is used to obtain robust indexes of the annual fluctuations of runout altitudes. The proposed model includes a possible level shift, and distinguishes common large-scale signals in both mean- and high-magnitude events from the interannual variability. Application to the data available in France over the last 61 winters shows that the mean runout altitude is not different now than it was 60 yr ago, but that snow avalanches have been retreating since 1977. This trend is of particular note for high-magnitude events, which have seen their probability rates halved, a crucial result in terms of hazard assessment. Avalanche control measures, observation errors, and model limitations are insufficient explanations for these trends. On the other hand, strong similarities in the pattern of behavior of the proposed runout indexes and several climate datasets are shown, as well as a consistent evolution of the preferred flow regime. The proposed runout indexes may therefore be usable as indicators of climate change at high altitudes.

scholarly journals Lianas reduce carbon accumulation and storage in tropical forests

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (43) ◽  
pp. 13267-13271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geertje M. F. van der Heijden ◽  
Jennifer S. Powers ◽  
Stefan A. Schnitzer
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Carbon Dynamics ◽  
Carbon Accumulation ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Woody Vines ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Agent Of Change ◽  
The Impact

Tropical forests store vast quantities of carbon, account for one-third of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis, and are a major sink in the global carbon cycle. Recent evidence suggests that competition between lianas (woody vines) and trees may reduce forest-wide carbon uptake; however, estimates of the impact of lianas on carbon dynamics of tropical forests are crucially lacking. Here we used a large-scale liana removal experiment and found that, at 3 y after liana removal, lianas reduced net above-ground carbon uptake (growth and recruitment minus mortality) by ∼76% per year, mostly by reducing tree growth. The loss of carbon uptake due to liana-induced mortality was four times greater in the control plots in which lianas were present, but high variation among plots prevented a significant difference among the treatments. Lianas altered how aboveground carbon was stored. In forests where lianas were present, the partitioning of forest aboveground net primary production was dominated by leaves (53.2%, compared with 39.2% in liana-free forests) at the expense of woody stems (from 28.9%, compared with 43.9%), resulting in a more rapid return of fixed carbon to the atmosphere. After 3 y of experimental liana removal, our results clearly demonstrate large differences in carbon cycling between forests with and without lianas. Combined with the recently reported increases in liana abundance, these results indicate that lianas are an important and increasing agent of change in the carbon dynamics of tropical forests.

Seasonal Predictability of Wintertime mid-latitude Cyclonic Activity over the North Atlantic and Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvise Aranyossy ◽  
Sebastian Brune ◽  
Lara Hellmich ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Average Lifespan ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>We analyse the connections between the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the eddy-driven jet stream with the mid-latitude cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic and Europe. We investigate, through the comparison against ECMWF ERA5 and hindcast simulations from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), the potential for enhancement of the seasonal prediction skill of the Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) by accounting for the connections between large-scale climate and the regional cyclonic activity. Our analysis focuses on the wintertime months (December-March) in the 1979-2019 period, with seasonal predictions initialized every November 1st. We calculate EKE from wind speeds at 250 hPa, which we use as a proxy for cyclonic activity. The zonal and meridional wind speeds are bandpass filtered with a cut-off at 3-10 days to fit with the average lifespan of mid-latitude cyclones. </p><p>Preliminary results suggest that in ERA5, major positive anomalies in EKE, both in quantity and duration, are correlated with a northern position of the jet stream and a positive phase of the NAO. Apparently, a deepened Icelandic low-pressure system offers favourable conditions for mid-latitude cyclones in terms of growth and average lifespan. In contrast, negative anomalies in EKE over the North Atlantic and Central Europe are associated with a more equatorward jet stream, these are also linked to a negative phase of the NAO.  Thus, in ERA5, the eddy-driven jet stream and the NAO play a significant role in the spatial and temporal distribution of wintertime mid-latitude cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic and Europe. We extend this connection to the MPI-ESM hindcast simulations and present an analysis of their predictive skill of EKE for wintertime months.</p>

scholarly journals Carbon monoxide and related trace gases and aerosols over the Amazon Basin during the wet and dry seasons

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 6041-6065 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. O. Andreae ◽  
P. Artaxo ◽  
V. Beck ◽  
M. Bela ◽  
S. Freitas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Monoxide ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Photochemical Degradation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Biomass Smoke ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract. We present the results of airborne measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol particle number concentration (CN) made during the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) program. The primary goal of BARCA is to address the question of basin-scale sources and sinks of CO2 and other atmospheric carbon species, a central issue of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) program. The experiment consisted of two aircraft campaigns during November–December 2008 (BARCA-A) and May–June 2009 (BARCA-B), which covered the altitude range from the surface up to about 4500 m, and spanned most of the Amazon Basin. Based on meteorological analysis and measurements of the tracer, SF6, we found that airmasses over the Amazon Basin during the late dry season (BARCA-A, November 2008) originated predominantly from the Southern Hemisphere, while during the late wet season (BARCA-B, May 2009) low-level airmasses were dominated by northern-hemispheric inflow and mid-tropospheric airmasses were of mixed origin. In BARCA-A we found strong influence of biomass burning emissions on the composition of the atmosphere over much of the Amazon Basin, with CO enhancements up to 300 ppb and CN concentrations approaching 10 000 cm−3; the highest values were in the southern part of the Basin at altitudes of 1–3 km. The ΔCN/ΔCO ratios were diagnostic for biomass burning emissions, and were lower in aged than in fresh smoke. Fresh emissions indicated CO/CO2 and CN/CO emission ratios in good agreement with previous work, but our results also highlight the need to consider the residual smoldering combustion that takes place after the active flaming phase of deforestation fires. During the late wet season, in contrast, there was little evidence for a significant presence of biomass smoke. Low CN concentrations (300–500 cm−3) prevailed basinwide, and CO mixing ratios were enhanced by only ~10 ppb above the mixing line between Northern and Southern Hemisphere air. There was no detectable trend in CO with distance from the coast, but there was a small enhancement of CO in the boundary layer suggesting diffuse biogenic sources from photochemical degradation of biogenic volatile organic compounds or direct biological emission. Simulations of CO distributions during BARCA-A using a range of models yielded general agreement in spatial distribution and confirm the important contribution from biomass burning emissions, but the models evidence some systematic quantitative differences compared to observed CO concentrations. These mismatches appear to be related to problems with the accuracy of the global background fields, the role of vertical transport and biomass smoke injection height, the choice of model resolution, and reliability and temporal resolution of the emissions data base.

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