Mitigating climate change effects on forest growth using planting stock with high adaptive genetic capacity: results from Abies alba (Mill.) provenance trials at the southeastern distribution limit

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgeta Mihai ◽  
Alin-Madalin Alexandru ◽  
Marius-Victor Birsan ◽  
Ionel Mirancea ◽  
Paula Garbacea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Planting Stock ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Romanian Carpathians

<p>European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is among the most important forestry species in Europe. In Romanian Carpathians, it covers about 5% of the forests area and almost two-thirds of its distribution is located in Eastern Carpathians, which is the southeastern edge of its distribution in Europe.<br>The most recent climate change scenarios for Europe suggest increases in mean annual temperature of 1-4 °C by the end of this century (Meinshausen et al. 2011). In the context of global warming, the populations living at the edge of the species distribution will be the first facing the climate change effects. In these regions, as the southeastern Europe, the main constrains are increasing the temperature, extended drought events and water availability. Forest species are particularly sensitive to climate change because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes (Lindner et al. 2010). <br>In this context, the aim of this study was to analyze the drought response of 51 European silver fir populations from: Romanian Carpathians (26), Austria (4), Germany (3), France (3), Italy (4), Slovakia (3), Czech Republic (3), Poland (1) and Bulgaria (4)  to strong drought events which have occurred in this region, in the last 30 years. The populations are tested in three provenances trials established in Romania, in 1980; two of them being located outside and one within the optimum climatic of species. The most drought years, with severe or extreme drought periods, have been identified based on the standardized precipitation index (McKee et al. 1993). The growth response of the silver fir populations to the drought events was evaluated by calculating four parameters, namely: resistance, recovery, resilience, relative resilience (Lloret et al. 2011). Results reveled that the general trend was towards decrease the stem radial growth of silver fir during the last 30 years. The provenance x year interaction was not significant which means high provenances stability over time. Significant differences were found among silver fir provenances in terms of ring width, latewood proportion, resistance, recovery and resilience in drought years. There are provenances which have highlighted high productivity and high tolerance to drought, which could be used in reforestation work, breeding and conservation programs. The radial growth of silver fir provenances was negative affected by the temperature increase during vegetation period and positive by previous autumn-spring precipitations. Therefore, the forest management strategy to mitigate negative impacts of climate change should be based on the knowledge of the intraspecific genetic variation and selection of the best performing and adapted planting stock for each region.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gintautas Mozgeris ◽  
Vilis Brukas ◽  
Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽  
Gintautas Činga ◽  
Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

scholarly journals Past and Future of Temperate Forests State under Climate Change Effects in the Romanian Southern Carpathians

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 885
Author(s):  
Serban Chivulescu ◽  
Juan García-Duro ◽  
Diana Pitar ◽  
Ștefan Leca ◽  
Ovidiu Badea
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Change ◽  
Mixed Forests ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Growth Change ◽  
Different Response

Research Highlights: Carpathian forests hold high ecological and economic value while generating conservation concerns, with some of these forests being among the few remaining temperate virgin forests in Europe. Carpathian forests partially lost their original integrity due to their management. Climate change has also gradually contributed to forest changes due to its modification of the environmental conditions. Background and Objectives: Understanding trees’ responses to past climates and forms of management is critical in foreseeing the responses of forests to future conditions. This study aims (1) to determine the sensitivity of Carpathian forests to past climates using dendrochronological records and (2) to describe the effects that climate change and management will have on the attributes of Carpathian forests, with a particular focus on the different response of pure and mixed forests. Materials and Methods: To this end, we first analysed the past climate-induced growth change in a dendrochronological reference series generated for virgin forests in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and then used the obtained information to calibrate spatially explicit forest Landis-II models for the same region. The model was used to project forest change under four climate change scenarios, from mild to extreme. Results: The dendrochronological analysis revealed a climate-driven increase in forest growth over time. Landis-II model simulations also indicate that the amount of aboveground forest biomass will tend to increase with climate change. Conclusions: There are differences in the response of pure and mixed forests. Therefore, suitable forest management is required when forests change with the climate.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

2024 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yousafzai ◽  
W. Manzoor ◽  
G. Raza ◽  
T. Mahmood ◽  
F. Rehman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Root Mean Squared Error ◽  
Squared Error

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe’s (LM), Willmott’s index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Dominik Sperlich ◽  
Daniel Nadal-Sala ◽  
Carlos Gracia ◽  
Jürgen Kreuzwieser ◽  
Marc Hanewinkel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Forest Growth Model

Global warming poses great challenges for forest managers regarding adaptation strategies and species choices. More frequent drought events and heat spells are expected to reduce growth and increase mortality. Extended growing seasons, warming and elevated CO2 (eCO2) can also positively affect forest productivity. We studied the growth, productivity and mortality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Black Forest (Germany) under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) using the detailed biogeochemical forest growth model GOTILWA+. Averaged over the entire simulation period, both species showed productivity losses in RCP2.6 (16–20%) and in RCP4.5 (6%), but productivity gains in RCP8.5 (11–17%). However, all three scenarios had a tipping point (between 2035–2060) when initial gains in net primary productivity (NPP) (6–29%) eventually turned into losses (1–26%). With eCO2 switched off, the losses in NPP were 26–51% in RCP2.6, 36–45% in RCP4.5 and 33–71% in RCP8.5. Improved water-use efficiency dampened drought effects on NPP between 4 and 5%. Tree mortality increased, but without notably affecting forest productivity. Concluding, cultivation of beech and fir may still be possible in the study region, although severe productivity losses can be expected in the coming decades, which will strongly depend on the dampening CO2 fertilization effect.

scholarly journals Dendroclimatic study of a mixed spruce-fir-beech forest in the Czech Republic

Les/Wood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-32
Author(s):  
Tomáš Kolář ◽  
Petr Čermák ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Eva Koňasová ◽  
Irena Sochová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mixed Forest ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Mixed Forests ◽  
Species Response

European forests are undergoing an important transition due to the current climate change, as monocultures are being gradually replaced by mixed forests. Understanding tree growth in mixed forests under a changing climate is challenging because of tree species’ adaptation and long-term forest planning. In this study, we evaluate the long-term behaviour of Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) from a low montane range at the Czech-Austrian border. Species-specific tree-ring width chronologies have revealed significantly decreasing growth trends since the 2000s. Temporally unstable climate–growth relationships showed an increasing negative effect of current growing season drought on spruce growth and a positive effect of dormant season temperature on fir and beech growth. Our results suggest that though species’ response to climate change differs in the mixed forest, growth reduction in the last years has been proved for all species, likely due to frequent climate extremes.

scholarly journals Impact of Industrial Pollution on Radial Growth of Conifers in a Former Mining Area in the Eastern Carpathians (Northern Romania)

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 640
Author(s):  
Cristian Gheorghe Sidor ◽  
Radu Vlad ◽  
Ionel Popa ◽  
Anca Semeniuc ◽  
Ecaterina Apostol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Industrial Pollution ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Mining Operation ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Local Pollution ◽  
Eastern Carpathians ◽  
The Impact

The research aims to evaluate the impact of local industrial pollution on radial growth in affected Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) stands in the Tarnița study area in Suceava. For northeastern Romania, the Tarnița mining operation constituted a hotspot of industrial pollution. The primary processing of non-ferrous ores containing heavy metals in the form of complex sulfides was the main cause of pollution in the Tarnița region from 1968 to 1990. Air pollution of Tarnița induced substantial tree growth reduction from 1978 to 1990, causing a decline in tree health and vitality. Growth decline in stands located over 6 km from the pollution source was weaker or absent. Spruce trees were much less affected by the phenomenon of local pollution than fir trees. We analyzed the dynamics of resilience indices and average radial growth indices and found that the period in which the trees suffered the most from local pollution was between 1978 and 1984. Growth recovery of the intensively polluted stand was observed after the 1990s when the environmental condition improved because of a significant reduction in air pollution.

scholarly journals Relationship of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) mortality in the area of Fužine with climatic and structural parameters

2021 ◽  
Vol 145 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 311-321
Author(s):  
Damir Ugarković ◽  
Nenad Potočić ◽  
Marko Orešković ◽  
Krešimir Popić ◽  
Mladen Ognjenović ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Causes Of Mortality

Tree dieback is a complex process involving negative impact of various abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors. Climate change, comprising all those effects, is generally considered as the largest threat to forest ecosystems in Europe. Although the scale of climate change impacts on forests is not yet fully understood, especially on the regional or species level, significant damage seems to be caused by weather extremes, such as drought and strong winds. With the expected increase in the number, length, and/or intensity of extreme weather events in Croatia, research into the causes of tree mortality is both important and timely. Silver fir is the most damaged and endangered conifer tree species in Croatia. The dieback of silver fir can be attributed to various factors, therefore the goals of this research were to determine the mortality of silver fir trees (by number and volume) for various causes of mortality, among which the climatic and structural parameters were of most interest. The twenty-year data for tree mortality in pure silver fir stands in the area of Fužine (Gorski kotar, Croatia) were collected and analysed. The largest number and volume of dead trees was caused by complex (multiple causes) dieback in the overstorey (0,75 N/ha, 2,35 m<sup>3</sup>/ha), and the smallest (0,17 N/ha, 0,02 m<sup>3</sup>/ha) by dieback of supressed trees. No significant differences were determined regarding the timing of tree death for different causes of mortality. Climatic parameters (drought, air temperature, PET) and structural parameters of the stands (tree DBH, social position, crown diameter, shading, physiological maturity) as well as plot inclination were found to be the factors of a significant influence on the mortality of silver fir trees.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff Generation in an Andean Glacier Watershed

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3547
Author(s):  
Rossana Escanilla-Minchel ◽  
Hernán Alcayaga ◽  
Marco Soto-Alvarez ◽  
Christophe Kinnard ◽  
Roberto Urrutia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
South Central ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Impact

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, 3.8% of the world’s glacier area is concentrated in Chile. The country has been strongly affected by the mega drought, which affects the south-central area and has produced an increase in dependence on water resources from snow and glacier melting in dry periods. Recent climate change has led to an elevation of the zero-degree isotherm, a decrease in solid-state precipitation amounts and an accelerated loss of glacier and snow storage in the Chilean Andes. This situation calls for a better understanding of future water discharge in Andean headwater catchments in order to improve water resources management in glacier-fed populated areas. The present study uses hydrological modeling to characterize the hydrological processes occurring in a glacio-nival watershed of the central Andes and to examine the impact of different climate change scenarios on discharge. The study site is the upper sub-watershed of the Tinguiririca River (area: 141 km2), of which nearly 20% is covered by Universidad Glacier. The semi-distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model + Glacier (SRM+G) was forced with local meteorological data to simulate catchment runoff. The model was calibrated on even years and validated on odd years during the 2008–2014 period and found to correctly reproduce daily runoff. The model was then forced with downscaled ensemble projected precipitation and temperature series under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and the glacier adjusted using a volume-area scaling relationship. The results obtained for 2050 indicate a decrease in mean annual discharge (MAD) of 18.1% for the lowest emission scenario and 43.3% for the most pessimistic emission scenario, while for 2100 the MAD decreases by 31.4 and 54.2%, respectively, for each emission scenario. Results show that decreasing precipitation lead to reduced rainfall and snowmelt contributions to discharge. Glacier melt thus partly buffers the drying climate trend, but our results show that the peak water occurs near 2040, after which glacier depletion leads to reducing discharge, threatening the long-term water resource availability in this region.

scholarly journals Variation patterns of mitochondrial DNA of Abies alba Mill. in suture zones of postglacial migration in Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duśan Gomory ◽  
Roman Longauer ◽  
Sascha Liepelt ◽  
Dalibor Ballian ◽  
Robert Brus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mitochondrial Dna ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Balkan Peninsula ◽  
Gene Marker ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Recent Meeting ◽  
Variation Patterns ◽  
Postglacial Recolonization ◽  
Romanian Carpathians

Thirty silver fir populations originating from the putative suture zones of the postglacial recolonization (Slovenia, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Ukraine) were studied using a mitochondrial <em>nad5-4</em> gene marker. The geographical distribution of mtDNA haplotypes in the Ukrainian Carpathians and their northern foothills indicates a very recent meeting of migration streams arriving from the Romanian Carpathians and Central Europe. In the western part of the Balkan Peninsula, two counterparallel migration streams are the most plausible explanation of the pattern observed. The haplotype typical for the Balkan Peninsula predominates along the Adrian coast, whereas the CentralEuropean haplotype is more represented in the inland.

scholarly journals Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6473-6491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pellicer-Martínez ◽  
José Miguel Martínez-Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Resource Exploitation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Tagus River

Abstract. Currently, climate change is a major concern around the world, especially because of the uncertainty associated with its possible consequences for society. Among them, fluvial alterations can be highlighted in basins whose flows depend on groundwater discharges and snowmelt. This is the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River basin, whose water resources, besides being essential for water uses within this basin, are susceptible to being transferred to the Segura River basin (both basins are in the Iberian Peninsula). This work studies the possible effects that the latest climate change scenarios may have on this transfer, one of the most important ones in southern Europe. In the first place, the possible alterations of the water cycle of the donor basin were estimated. To do this, a hydrological model was calibrated. Then, with this model, three climatic scenarios were simulated, one without climate change and two projections under climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5)). The results of these three hydrological modelling scenarios were used to determine the possible flows that could be transferred from the Tagus River basin to the Segura River basin, by simulating the water resource exploitation system of the Tagus headwaters. The calibrated hydrological model predicts, for the simulated climate change scenarios, important reductions in the snowfalls and snow covers, the recharge of aquifers, and the available water resources. So, the headwaters of the Tagus River basin would lose part of its natural capacity for regulation. These changes in the water cycle for the climate change scenarios used would imply a reduction of around 70 %–79 % in the possible flows that could be transferred to the Segura basin, with respect to a scenario without climate change. The loss of water resources for the Segura River basin would mean, if no alternative measures were taken, an economic loss of EUR 380–425 million per year, due principally to decreased agricultural production.

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