scholarly journals Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Dominik Sperlich ◽  
Daniel Nadal-Sala ◽  
Carlos Gracia ◽  
Jürgen Kreuzwieser ◽  
Marc Hanewinkel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Forest Growth Model

Global warming poses great challenges for forest managers regarding adaptation strategies and species choices. More frequent drought events and heat spells are expected to reduce growth and increase mortality. Extended growing seasons, warming and elevated CO2 (eCO2) can also positively affect forest productivity. We studied the growth, productivity and mortality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Black Forest (Germany) under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) using the detailed biogeochemical forest growth model GOTILWA+. Averaged over the entire simulation period, both species showed productivity losses in RCP2.6 (16–20%) and in RCP4.5 (6%), but productivity gains in RCP8.5 (11–17%). However, all three scenarios had a tipping point (between 2035–2060) when initial gains in net primary productivity (NPP) (6–29%) eventually turned into losses (1–26%). With eCO2 switched off, the losses in NPP were 26–51% in RCP2.6, 36–45% in RCP4.5 and 33–71% in RCP8.5. Improved water-use efficiency dampened drought effects on NPP between 4 and 5%. Tree mortality increased, but without notably affecting forest productivity. Concluding, cultivation of beech and fir may still be possible in the study region, although severe productivity losses can be expected in the coming decades, which will strongly depend on the dampening CO2 fertilization effect.

Mitigating climate change effects on forest growth using planting stock with high adaptive genetic capacity: results from Abies alba (Mill.) provenance trials at the southeastern distribution limit

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgeta Mihai ◽  
Alin-Madalin Alexandru ◽  
Marius-Victor Birsan ◽  
Ionel Mirancea ◽  
Paula Garbacea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Planting Stock ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Romanian Carpathians

<p>European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is among the most important forestry species in Europe. In Romanian Carpathians, it covers about 5% of the forests area and almost two-thirds of its distribution is located in Eastern Carpathians, which is the southeastern edge of its distribution in Europe.<br>The most recent climate change scenarios for Europe suggest increases in mean annual temperature of 1-4 °C by the end of this century (Meinshausen et al. 2011). In the context of global warming, the populations living at the edge of the species distribution will be the first facing the climate change effects. In these regions, as the southeastern Europe, the main constrains are increasing the temperature, extended drought events and water availability. Forest species are particularly sensitive to climate change because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes (Lindner et al. 2010). <br>In this context, the aim of this study was to analyze the drought response of 51 European silver fir populations from: Romanian Carpathians (26), Austria (4), Germany (3), France (3), Italy (4), Slovakia (3), Czech Republic (3), Poland (1) and Bulgaria (4)  to strong drought events which have occurred in this region, in the last 30 years. The populations are tested in three provenances trials established in Romania, in 1980; two of them being located outside and one within the optimum climatic of species. The most drought years, with severe or extreme drought periods, have been identified based on the standardized precipitation index (McKee et al. 1993). The growth response of the silver fir populations to the drought events was evaluated by calculating four parameters, namely: resistance, recovery, resilience, relative resilience (Lloret et al. 2011). Results reveled that the general trend was towards decrease the stem radial growth of silver fir during the last 30 years. The provenance x year interaction was not significant which means high provenances stability over time. Significant differences were found among silver fir provenances in terms of ring width, latewood proportion, resistance, recovery and resilience in drought years. There are provenances which have highlighted high productivity and high tolerance to drought, which could be used in reforestation work, breeding and conservation programs. The radial growth of silver fir provenances was negative affected by the temperature increase during vegetation period and positive by previous autumn-spring precipitations. Therefore, the forest management strategy to mitigate negative impacts of climate change should be based on the knowledge of the intraspecific genetic variation and selection of the best performing and adapted planting stock for each region.</p>

scholarly journals Relationship of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) mortality in the area of Fužine with climatic and structural parameters

2021 ◽  
Vol 145 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 311-321
Author(s):  
Damir Ugarković ◽  
Nenad Potočić ◽  
Marko Orešković ◽  
Krešimir Popić ◽  
Mladen Ognjenović ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Causes Of Mortality

Tree dieback is a complex process involving negative impact of various abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors. Climate change, comprising all those effects, is generally considered as the largest threat to forest ecosystems in Europe. Although the scale of climate change impacts on forests is not yet fully understood, especially on the regional or species level, significant damage seems to be caused by weather extremes, such as drought and strong winds. With the expected increase in the number, length, and/or intensity of extreme weather events in Croatia, research into the causes of tree mortality is both important and timely. Silver fir is the most damaged and endangered conifer tree species in Croatia. The dieback of silver fir can be attributed to various factors, therefore the goals of this research were to determine the mortality of silver fir trees (by number and volume) for various causes of mortality, among which the climatic and structural parameters were of most interest. The twenty-year data for tree mortality in pure silver fir stands in the area of Fužine (Gorski kotar, Croatia) were collected and analysed. The largest number and volume of dead trees was caused by complex (multiple causes) dieback in the overstorey (0,75 N/ha, 2,35 m<sup>3</sup>/ha), and the smallest (0,17 N/ha, 0,02 m<sup>3</sup>/ha) by dieback of supressed trees. No significant differences were determined regarding the timing of tree death for different causes of mortality. Climatic parameters (drought, air temperature, PET) and structural parameters of the stands (tree DBH, social position, crown diameter, shading, physiological maturity) as well as plot inclination were found to be the factors of a significant influence on the mortality of silver fir trees.

scholarly journals Tree diversity and the temporal stability of mountain forest productivity: testing the effect of species composition, through asynchrony and overyielding

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Jourdan ◽  
Christian Piedallu ◽  
Jonas Baudry ◽  
Xavier Morin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fagus Sylvatica ◽  
Stress Gradient ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Diversity Effect ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTClimate change modifies ecosystem processes directly through its effect on environmental conditions, but also indirectly by changing community composition. Theoretical studies and grassland experiments suggest that diversity may increase and stabilize communities’ productivity over time. Few recent studies on forest ecosystems suggested the same pattern but with a larger variability between the results. In this paper, we aimed to test stabilizing diversity effect for two kinds of mixtures (Fagus sylvatica - Quercus pubescens and Fagus sylvatica - Abies alba), and to assess how climate may affect the patterns. We used tree ring data from forest plots distributed along a latitudinal gradient across French Alps. We found that diversity effect on stability in productivity varies with stand composition. Most beech–fir stands showed a greater stability in productivity over time than monocultures, while beech–oak stands showed a less stable productivity. Considering non-additive effects, no significant trends were found, regardless the type of mixed stands considered. We further highlighted that these patterns could be partially explained by asynchrony between species responses to annual climatic conditions (notably to variation in temperature or precipitation), overyielding, and climatic conditions. We also showed that the intensity of the diversity effect on stability varies along the ecological gradient, consistently with the stress gradient hypothesis for beech-oak forests, but not for beech-fir forests. This study showed the importance of the species identity on the relationships between diversity, climate and stability of forest productivity. Better depicting diversity and composition effects on forest ecosystem functioning appears to be crucial for forest managers to promote forest adaptation and maintain timber resource in the context of on-going climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

Integrating remote sensing and climate data with process-based models to map forest productivity within west-central Alberta's boreal forest: Ecoleap-West

2006 ◽  
Vol 82 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
R J Hall ◽  
F. Raulier ◽  
D T Price ◽  
E. Arsenault ◽  
P Y Bernier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Leaf Area Index ◽  
Leaf Area ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Study Region

Forest yield forecasting typically employs statistically derived growth and yield (G&Y) functions that will yield biased growth estimates if changes in climate seriously influence future site conditions. Significant climate warming anticipated for the Prairie Provinces may result in increased moisture deficits, reductions in average site productivity and changes to natural species composition. Process-based stand growth models that respond realistically to simulated changes in climate can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest productivity, and hence can provide information for adapting forest management practices. We present an application of such a model, StandLEAP, to estimate stand-level net primary productivity (NPP) within a 2700 km2 study region in western Alberta. StandLEAP requires satellite remote-sensing derived estimates of canopy light absorption or leaf area index, in addition to spatial data on climate, topography and soil physical characteristics. The model was applied to some 80 000 stand-level inventory polygons across the study region. The resulting estimates of NPP correlate well with timber productivity values based on stand-level site index (height in metres at 50 years). This agreement demonstrates the potential to make site-based G&Y estimates using process models and to further investigate possible effects of climate change on future timber supply. Key words: forest productivity, NPP, climate change, process-based model, StandLEAP, leaf area index, above-ground biomass

scholarly journals Agroforestry Suitability Mapping for the Northwest Provinces of Vietnam

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Quyet Manh Vu ◽  
Tri Dan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
Land Cover Maps ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to assess the potential development of selected agroforestry options for three provinces in the Northwest of Vietnam. Available spatial data including Land use/land cover maps and forest inventory maps were used as the base maps in combination with supplementary data and field survey to determine the potential agroforestry areas. Soil types, soil depth, soil texture, elevation, slope, temperature and rainfall were used to evaluate the biophysical suitability of ten typical agroforestry options in the study region. For assessing the impact of climate change to agroforestry suitability in the future, temperature and precipitation data extracted from two climate changes scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 in 2046–2065) were used. The results showed that the suitable areas for agroforestry development in Dien Bien, Sơn La and Yen Bai provinces were 267.74.01 ha, 405,597.96 ha; and 297,995.55 ha, respectively. Changes in temperature and precipitation by 2 climate change scenarios affected significantly to the suitability of Docynia indica + livestock grass, Teak + plum + coffee + grass and Plum + maize + livestock grass options. The map of agroforestry suitability can be served as a useful source in developing and expanding the area of agroforestry in the target provinces, and can be applied for other provinces in the same region in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Identifying decision-relevant uncertainties for dynamic adaptive forest management under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (2) ◽  
pp. 891-911
Author(s):  
Naomi Radke ◽  
Klaus Keller ◽  
Rasoul Yousefpour ◽  
Marc Hanewinkel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Forest Growth Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Planning Cycle

AbstractThe decision on how to manage a forest under climate change is subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. The classic approach to analyze this decision adopts a predefined strategy, tests its robustness to uncertainties, but neglects their dynamic nature (i.e., that decision-makers can learn and adjust the strategy). Accounting for learning through dynamic adaptive strategies (DAS) can drastically improve expected performance and robustness to deep uncertainties. The benefits of considering DAS hinge on identifying critical uncertainties and translating them to detectable signposts to signal when to change course. This study advances the DAS approach to forest management as a novel application domain by showcasing methods to identify potential signposts for adaptation on a case study of a classic European beech management strategy in South-West Germany. We analyze the strategy’s robustness to uncertainties about model forcings and parameters. We then identify uncertainties that critically impact its economic and ecological performance by confronting a forest growth model with a large sample of time-varying scenarios. The case study results illustrate the potential of designing DAS for forest management and provide insights on key uncertainties and potential signposts. Specifically, economic uncertainties are the main driver of the strategy’s robustness and impact the strategy’s performance more critically than climate uncertainty. Besides economic metrics, the forest stand’s past volume growth is a promising signpost metric. It mirrors the effect of both climatic and model parameter uncertainty. The regular forest inventory and planning cycle provides an ideal basis for adapting a strategy in response to these signposts.

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gintautas Mozgeris ◽  
Vilis Brukas ◽  
Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽  
Gintautas Činga ◽  
Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

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