scholarly journals Agent-based modelling for wildfire behaviour prediction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debora Voltolina ◽  
Simone Sterlacchini ◽  
Giacomo Cappellini ◽  
Marco Zazzeri ◽  
Tiziana Apuani
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Global Strategy ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Ancillary Data ◽  
Ignition Point ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Rate Of Spread

<p><span>The Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai in 2015, has defined a global strategy directed at enhancing risk-exposed communities’ resilience. In line with those needs, the study intends to improve and optimize decision-making processes in wildfire risk management by implementing predictive spatially distributed models of wildfire behaviour.</span></p><p><span>The proposed methodology has been applied to simulate some large and fully documented wildfire events in Umbria and Sardinia regions, in Central and Southern Italy respectively. </span><span>The predictive model for wildfire behaviour is based on the reviewed Rothermel’s quasi-empirical mathematical model, which investigates propagation-driving parameters, i.e. the local geomorphometrical and meteorological parameters along with the pyrological and phenological characteristics of the local plant communities, to estimate the rate of spread of the fire. Propagation-driving parameters and their spatiotemporal variability have been estimated in the pre-fire environment by applying and adapting empirical relationships well-established in literature. Remote sensing-derived data have been analysed over phenologically distinct periods, along with ancillary data, to elicit information necessary to distinguish the mosaic of fuel model types and to monitor spatiotemporal variations in either live or dead fuel moisture content. According to input data availability, the methodology has been adapted to different case studies, focusing major attention on MODIS instrument by NASA on board the Terra satellite as well as on Sentinel constellations of satellites of the ESA Copernicus programme due to their accessibility and to their medium-high spatial and temporal resolution. A</span><span> two-dimensional Agent-Based Model with a hexagonal grid, which, given a map of the rate of spread and an ignition point as inputs, </span>returns a map of the cumulative propagation time, <span>has been developed in order to simulate the wildland surface fire behaviour.</span></p><p><span>Satellite estimated propagation-driving parameters have been compared with information collected in the field and recorded by the regional annual reports on wildfire events, revealing a good predictive ability. Likewise, the wildfire behaviour model has provided accurate predictions, up to 70% in terms of morphological matching between obtained simulations and respective documented historical events boundaries, also if compared with results from other well-known wildfire simulation toolset and software. Obtained results suggest the developed wildfire behaviour model could represent a promising tool in prioritizing firefighting interventions in near-real time.</span></p>

The Effects of Changes in State Tax Enforcement on Corporate Income Tax Collections

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Gupta ◽  
Daniel P. Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
State Level ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Tax Policies ◽  
Tax Enforcement ◽  
Current Period ◽  
State Tax

ABSTRACT Using a new hand-collected database on state department of revenue (DOR) expenditures, this study examines the association between changes in state corporate tax enforcement expenditures and state-level tax collections during the 2000–2008 time period. The results, after addressing endogeneity concerns using a changes specification and state fixed effects, suggest a $1 increase (decrease) in current period corporate enforcement is associated with an $8 to $11 increase (decrease) in state tax collections two years into the future. The association appears to be attenuated in states with restrictive tax policies (i.e., unitary/combined reporting and related-party add-back provisions) suggesting that enforcement and restrictive tax policies could serve as substitutes. JEL Classifications: H26; H71; H72. Data Availability: Enforcement data were hand collected from state revenue department annual reports and by contacting state corporate income tax personnel. All annual reports are publicly available.

scholarly journals Cost of Quality Analysis on Tailors’ Industry in Aceh

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-111
Author(s):  
Dinaroe Dinaroe ◽  
Syarifah Umaira ◽  
Fazli Syam BZ
Keyword(s):  
Data Availability ◽  
Quality Analysis ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Managerial Accounting ◽  
Quality Cost ◽  
Cost Of Quality ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Banda Aceh

Objective – This research aims to explore and find out the application of Cost of Quality in Managerial Accounting perspective on the Tailor’s businesses in Banda Aceh during the period of 2015 – 2017. In addition, the research purposes are to analyze the firms plan and control of the Cost of Quality and how the firms arrange the cost in order to improve the quality with minimum budget cost.Design/methodology – The study uses qualitative descriptive research approach and being conducted using data from the firms annual reports and additional in-depth interview with the owners. The technique of purposive sampling is used in this study with the data availability criteria. The population of the research are the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Banda Aceh, and the sample criteria among others are tailor industry factories in Banda Aceh that have already prepared financial report during the observed period. CV Kuta Alam Tailor and CV Aceh Moda Tailor have been selected as the samples and as the study case location. The researcher analyzed the data by analyzing and examining the costs incurred by the firms, at how much and what kind of it, related to the cost of quality and cost of goods sold before and after the cost of quality is being added. Results – The result shows that CV. Kuta Alam Tailor and CV. Aceh Moda Tailor in term of cost of quality is still above 2.5% of the sales, thus indicates that the cost extravagancy and there are big differences in the cost of the goods sold if the cost of quality is included into the cost of goods sold. In addition, it is also found that both firms do not make a quality cost report specifically.Research limitations/implications – The research is based on the qualitative approach and does not using empirical research tools, so then it can not be generalized for overall tailor industry in Aceh nor Indonesia, outside of the observed firms and location. Therefore, it is necessary for the future research to explore more this phenomenon by using quantitative approach in order to analyze the influence of quality cost and firm performance or budget efficiencies.Novelty/Originality – The research focuses on analyzing and examining the cost of Quality in manufactur industry, particularly in the Job-Process Industry, such as Tailor industry is still very novice and need to be nurtured. Thus, this study contributes to this area by examining the implementation and aplication of the cost of quality whether the cost information can produce managerial information through financial and managerial reporting that will improve the product quality toward cost effeciency.Keywords Cost of Quality, Prevention Cost, Appraisal Cost.

On the predictive ability of narrative disclosures in annual reports

2010 ◽  
Vol 202 (3) ◽  
pp. 789-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramji Balakrishnan ◽  
Xin Ying Qiu ◽  
Padmini Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Annual Reports

Enhancing and Structuring the MD&A to Aid Investors when Using Interactive Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve G. Sutton ◽  
Vicky Arnold ◽  
Jean C. Bedard ◽  
Jillian R. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Focus Groups ◽  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Systems Design ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Public Companies ◽  
Nonprofessional Investors ◽  
Business Reporting ◽  
Interactive Data

ABSTRACT In 2008, the SEC issued a mandate requiring the use of interactive tagged data (i.e., eXtensible Business Reporting Language, or XBRL) for all public companies' filings of their annual financial statements. However, the SEC put the mandates in place only for the financial statements and accompanying notes. The SEC specifically excluded the use of interactive tagged data for most narrative aspects of annual reports, including Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A), deeming current taxonomies for interactive data tagging inadequate. This study leverages upon the efforts of the Enhanced Business Reporting Consortium (EBRC) to develop a more robust taxonomy for the MD&A. The EBRC effort consists of two parts: (1) expanding the scope of qualitative disclosures, and (2) integrating all of the interactive data tags used by companies during the voluntary disclosure period predating the SEC mandate into a comprehensive set of tags for existing MD&A disclosures. Of particular interest in this research is the first aspect of the EBRC effort—an analysis of professional and nonprofessional investors' perspectives on the value of proposed qualitative disclosures and areas in which such investors would desire additional disclosures. We conducted nine focus groups with professional and nonprofessional investors to elicit their information preferences, applying procedures consistent with the “information requirements definition” phase of systems design. Results show that participants are supportive of the EBRC's proposed 31 categories of qualitative disclosures, but also identify 15 additional categories as useful. We augment the focus groups with a survey of 286 investors to assess the relative value of the combined 46 categories. All 46 items appear to be desirable across investor participants. The results have implications for ongoing efforts to expand taxonomies for qualitative data disclosure and for standard-setters considering extensions to MD&A reporting requirements. Data Availability: Contact the corresponding author.

The Failure to Remediate Previously Disclosed Material Weaknesses in Internal Controls

2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline S. Hammersley ◽  
Linda A. Myers ◽  
Jian Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Control Systems ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Control Sample ◽  
Audit Fees ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Audit Committees ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Material Weaknesses

SUMMARY In this paper, we study a sample of companies that fail to remediate previously disclosed material weaknesses (MWs) in their internal control systems and, thus, disclose the same MWs in two consecutive annual reports. Their failure to remediate is surprising given that regulators, credit rating agencies, and academics contend that the remediation of MWs is important. We form a control sample of companies that initially disclosed MWs in their internal control systems, but subsequently remediated these weaknesses, and investigate the characteristics of the remediated and unremediated MWs, the characteristics of remediating versus non-remediating companies, and the consequences to non-remediating companies. Regarding the characteristics of companies failing to remediate, we find that companies are less likely to remediate previously disclosed MWs when the weaknesses are more pervasive (i.e., when they are described as at the entity level, when there are more individual weaknesses) and when their operations are more complex (i.e., they have more segments and have foreign operations). In addition, companies with smaller audit committees are less likely to remediate. Regarding the consequences, we find that companies failing to remediate MWs experience larger increases in audit fees and a higher likelihood of auditor resignation as the number of MWs increases. We also find that non-remediating companies are more likely to receive modified audit opinions and going-concern opinions. Finally, we find that companies failing to remediate are more likely to miss filing deadlines and experience increased cost of debt capital (i.e., they receive poorer credit ratings when entity level MWs are present, and are charged higher interest rates). Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the text.

scholarly journals Direct estimation of Byram's fire intensity from infrared remote sensing imagery

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M. Johnston ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
Ronan Paugam ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Timothy J. Lynham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Ancillary Data ◽  
Remote Sensing Imagery ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Thermal Infrared Imagery ◽  
Remote Sensing Methods

Byram’s fire intensity (IB,tot; kWm–1) is one the most important and widely accepted metrics for quantifying wildfire behaviour. Calculation of IB,tot requires measurement of fuel consumption, heat of combustion and rate of spread; existing methods for obtaining these measurements are either inexact or at times impossible to obtain in the field. This paper presents and evaluates a series of remote sensing methods for directly deriving radiative fire intensity (IB,rad; kWm–1) using the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) approach applied to thermal infrared imagery of spreading vegetation fires. Comparisons between the remote sensing data and ground-sampled measurements were used to evaluate the various estimates of IB,tot, and to determine the radiative fraction (radF) of a fire’s emitted energy. Results indicate that the IB,tot along an advancing flame front can be reasonably estimated (and agrees with traditional methods of estimation (R2=0.34–0.73)) from appropriately collected time-series of remote sensing imagery without the need for ground sampling or ancillary data. We further estimate that the radF of the fire’s emitted energy varies between 0.15 and 0.20 depending on the method of calculation, which is similar to previous estimates.

Increasing sustainable tourism through social entrepreneurship

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 1977-2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah de Lange ◽  
Rachel Dodds
Keyword(s):  
Social Entrepreneurship ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Canadian Context ◽  
Hospitality And Tourism

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the link between social entrepreneurship and sustainable tourism and to examine the Canadian context in this regard. Design/methodology/approach The methodology entails a case study approach that includes a thorough review of the related literature and of any existing Canadian sources of hospitality and tourism social entrepreneurship/intrapreneurship projects to determine the state of the Canadian industry with respect to sustainability. Findings Findings show that there are limited showcased hospitality and tourism social entrepreneurship projects in Canada. Two main assumptions related to the Canadian context can be drawn from this search: (1) There is a lack of hospitality and tourism social entrepreneurship projects and/or, (2) hospitality and tourism social entrepreneurship projects and/or businesses are not recognized and/or there is a lack of awareness of them. Research limitations/implications This study assessed the situation in Canada and although it was comprehensive under conditions of limited data availability, it cannot speak to social entrepreneurship in sustainable hospitality and tourism globally, which is a future research opportunity. Practical implications The design of a national incentive program would encourage industry sustainability through tax breaks. This voluntary system would require that firms provide standardized annual reports with their tax filings so that reliable industry data could be collected for analysis and understanding of the sustainability of the industry. Participating firms would be distinguished on a public list. Originality/value This research has theorized on the connection of social entrepreneurship to sustainable hospitality and tourism such that social entrepreneurship drives sustainable industry growth. This is also the first study of its kind to explore social entrepreneurship’s potential contribution to the sustainability of this industry.

Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset How Identity Salience, Fiscal Policy, and Natural Resource Profiles Moderate Outcomes

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 438-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Miodownik ◽  
Ravi Bhavnani
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Computational Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Moderating Variables ◽  
Lootable Resources ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Civil War Onset

Using an agent-based computational framework designed to explore the incidence of conflict between two nominally rival ethnic groups, we demonstrate that the impact of ethnic minority rule on civil war onset could be more nuanced than posited in the literature. By testing the effects of three key moderating variables on ethnic minority rule, our analysis demonstrates that: (i) when ethnicity is assumed to be salient for all individuals, conflict onset increases with size of the minority in power, although when salience is permitted to vary, onset decreases as minority and majority approach parity; (ii) fiscal policy—the spending and investment decisions of the minority EGIP—moderates conflict; conflict decreases when leaders make sound decisions, increases under corrupt regimes, and peaks under ethno-nationalist regimes that place a premium on territorial conquest; and lastly (iii) natural resources—their type and distribution—affect the level of conflict which is lowest in agrarian economies, higher in the presence of lootable resources, and still higher when lootable resource are “diffuse”. Our analysis generates a set of propositions to be tested empirically, subject to data availability.

scholarly journals Large-Area, High Spatial Resolution Land Cover Mapping Using Random Forests, GEOBIA, and NAIP Orthophotography: Findings and Recommendations

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron E. Maxwell ◽  
Michael P. Strager ◽  
Timothy A. Warner ◽  
Christopher A. Ramezan ◽  
Alice N. Morgan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Kappa Statistic ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Land Cover Mapping ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Ancillary Data

Despite the need for quality land cover information, large-area, high spatial resolution land cover mapping has proven to be a difficult task for a variety of reasons including large data volumes, complexity of developing training and validation datasets, data availability, and heterogeneity in data and landscape conditions. We investigate the use of geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA), random forest (RF) machine learning, and National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) orthophotography for mapping general land cover across the entire state of West Virginia, USA, an area of roughly 62,000 km2. We obtained an overall accuracy of 96.7% and a Kappa statistic of 0.886 using a combination of NAIP orthophotography and ancillary data. Despite the high overall classification accuracy, some classes were difficult to differentiate, as highlight by the low user’s and producer’s accuracies for the barren, impervious, and mixed developed classes. In contrast, forest, low vegetation, and water were generally mapped with accuracy. The inclusion of ancillary data and first- and second-order textural measures generally improved classification accuracy whereas band indices and object geometric measures were less valuable. Including super-object attributes improved the classification slightly; however, this increased the computational time and complexity. From the findings of this research and previous studies, recommendations are provided for mapping large spatial extents.

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