scholarly journals An MSE budget view on seasonal and CO2-induced ITCZ shifts in the TRAC-MIP model ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzina Bala ◽  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
Peter Knippertz
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
Mip Model ◽  
The Impact

<p>One of the grand challenges of climate is predicting and modeling tropical rainfall. Here, we address a specific problem of this grand challenge, namely how does the vertical structure of the atmosphere affect the tropical circulation and the position of the ITCZ during the seasonal cycle and in response to increased CO<sub>2</sub>. The tropical circulation can be described by the column-integrated budget of moist static energy (MSE). We use this framework in the TRAC-MIP model ensemble to investigate the role of the vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere in setting the anti-correlation between the ITCZ location and the atmospheric energy transport.</p><p>TRACMIP "The Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project" is a set of idealized simulations that are designed to study the tropical rain belt response to past and future forcings. TRACMIP includes 13 comprehensive CMIP5-class atmosphere models and one simplified atmospheric model. Importantly, TRACMIP includes a slab ocean with prescribed ocean heat transport. This leads to a closed surface energy balance and forces the annual-mean ITCZ to be north of the equator, consistent with today’s climate.</p><p>We use the MSE budget framework to diagnose the seasonal evolution of vertical velocity from the energetic terms in the MSE budget equation. We obtain a diagnostic expression for the vertical velocity. By means of the MSE budget framework we estimate the efficiency of exporting energy from the atmospheric column, which is defined as the gross moist stability (GMS). The GMS characterizes the stability of the tropical troposphere related to moist convective processes in the tropospheric column. We use the MSE and GMS analysis to disentangle the impact of deep and shallow circulations on energy transport, vertical velocity and hence precipitation in an objective manner.</p><p>Through this work we aim to elucidate to what extent model uncertainty in simulations of future ITCZ changes are caused by model differences in the vertical structure of the atmosphere. We also hope to use the results to advance our understanding of the tropical climate and to assess the plausibility of simulated changes in tropical rainfall.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Atmospheric Energy Transport in ERA-40 and Implications for Simple Models of the Mean Tropical Circulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 5229-5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Peters ◽  
Zhiming Kuang ◽  
Christopher C. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric Energy Transport ◽  
Convergence Zones ◽  
Mean Circulation

Abstract An analysis of atmospheric energy transport in 22 years (1980–2001) of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is presented. In the analyzed budgets, there is a large cancellation between divergences of dry static and latent energy such that the total energy divergence is positive over all tropical oceanic regions except for the east Pacific cold tongue, consistent with previous studies. The west Pacific and Indian Oceans are characterized by a balance between diabatic sources and mean advective energy export, with a small eddy contribution. However, in the central and eastern Pacific convergence zone, total energy convergence by the mean circulation is balanced by submonthly eddies, with a small diabatic source. Decomposing the mean advective tendency into terms due to horizontal and vertical advection shows that the spatial variation in the mean advection is due largely to variations in vertical advection; these variations are further attributed to variations in the vertical profile of the vertical velocity. The eddy energy export, due almost exclusively to eddy moisture export, does not exhibit any significant seasonal variation. The relationship between the eddies and the mean circulation is examined. Large-scale moisture diffusion is correlated with eddy moisture export on (500 km)2 spatial scales, implying that eddy activity preferentially dries narrow convergence zones over wide ones. Eddy moisture export is further linked to the depth of mean convection in large-scale convergence zones with larger eddy export associated with shallower circulations. This suggests a mechanism that could contribute to the observed variation in mean divergence profiles across the northern tropical Pacific whereby sea surface temperature gradients set the width of convergence zones and eddy activity modulates the tropospheric relative humidity and divergence profile. The importance of variations in the vertical profile of the vertical velocity and eddies in closing the energy budget implies that simple models of the mean tropical circulation should include these effects.

Cloud-Radiative Impacts On Tropical Circulation Change in GFDL AM4.1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juho Iipponen ◽  
Leo Donner
Keyword(s):  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Gross Moist Stability ◽  
The Impact

<pre>We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) state-of-the-art AM4.1 atmospheric model to assess the impact of clouds on the change in tropical circulation. Slab-ocean experiments where cloud microphysical properties are locked to either the pre-industrial or 4xCO<sub>2</sub> conditions allow us to cleanly separate the circulation changes into a part caused by the cloud radiative effects (CREs), and to a part caused by the CO<sub>2</sub> changes. The CO<sub>2</sub>-induced SST changes are shown to dominate the response in the boundary layer, but are rivaled by the impacts of CREs in the mid to upper troposphere. The reduction in the east-to-west sea level pressure difference over the Pacific is solely caused by the increasing CO<sub>2</sub> and SST, but they only account for about half of the change in the mid-tropospheric Walker circulation. The weakening of the free-tropospheric circulation is shown to be mostly caused by the near-equal contributions the CO<sub>2</sub> and CREs make to the changes in dry-static and gross moist stability. Also, concerning the <span>meridional</span> circulation, we show that the response in the strength of the southern branch of the Hadley cell is largely due to CREs, while they have a much smaller impact in the north.</pre>

The Tropical Precipitation Response to Andes Topography and Ocean Heat Fluxes in an Aquaplanet Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 381-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Maroon ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Ocean Energy ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Precipitation Response

Abstract This aquaplanet modeling study using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model, version 2.1 (GFDL AM2.1), examines how ocean energy transport and topography influence the location of tropical precipitation. Adding realistic Andes topography regionally displaces tropical rainfall from the equator into the Northern Hemisphere, even when the wind–evaporation feedback is disabled. The relative importance of the Andes compared to the asymmetric hemispheric heating of the atmosphere by ocean transport is examined by including idealized and realistic zonally averaged surface heat fluxes (also known as q fluxes) in the slab ocean. A hemispherically asymmetric q flux displaces the tropical rainfall toward the hemisphere receiving the greatest heating by the ocean. The zonal-mean displacement of rainfall is greater in simulations with a realistic q flux than with a realistic Andes topography. Simulations that add both a q flux and topography displace rainfall farther to the north in the region 120° to the west of the Andes than in simulations that only have a q flux. Cloud and clear-sky radiative feedbacks in the tropics and subtropics of this model both act to amplify the energy flux and the precipitation response to a given hemispheric asymmetry in oceanic forcing.

scholarly journals Vertical Structure of Spiral Shocks in a Corrugated Galactic Disc

1983 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 145-146
Author(s):  
A. H. Nelson ◽  
T. Matsuda ◽  
T. Johns
Keyword(s):  
Density Profile ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Gas Flow ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Shock Structure ◽  
Galactic Disc ◽  
Gaussian Density ◽  
Abundant Evidence ◽  
Steady Shock

Numerical calculations of spiral shocks in the gas discs of galaxies (1,2,3) usually assume that the disc is flat, i.e. the gas motion is purely horizontal. However there is abundant evidence that the discs of galaxies are warped and corrugated (4,5,6) and it is therefore of interest to consider the effect of the consequent vertical motion on the structure of spiral shocks. If one uses the tightly wound spiral approximation to calculate the gas flow in a vertical cut around a circular orbit (i.e the ⊝ -z plane, see Nelson & Matsuda (7) for details), then for a gas disc with Gaussian density profile in the z-direction and initially zero vertical velocity a doubly periodic spiral potential modulation produces the steady shock structure shown in Fig. 1. The shock structure is independent of z, and only a very small vertical motion appears with anti-symmetry about the mid-plane.

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   </p><p>The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.</p>

Does the interior of the ocean hide a major part of the eddy field?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Schütte ◽  
Ivy Frenger ◽  
Kristin Burmeister ◽  
Sabrina Speich ◽  
Johannes Karstensen
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Eddy Field ◽  
Weak Surface ◽  
Baroclinic Modes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vertical Eddy ◽  
Surface Signature

<p>In ocean research, mesoscale eddies typically are detected through surface signatures based on satellite data. The assumption is that most eddies are surface intensified and have a vertical structure consistent with a surface intensified mode. However, in-situ eddy observations, especially in the tropical oceans, showed that the vertical eddy structure is often more complex than previously assumed (higher baroclinic modes), and a diverse subsurface eddy field is present, which does not show any surface signatures at all. Our objective here is a first step towards a quantification of the occurrence of subsurface relative to surface eddies. To do this, we use an actively eddying model to compare the subsurface eddy field to its surface signatures in order to be able to estimate which vertical eddy structures prevail and how much of the eddy field is hidden in the subsurface. In addition, the model results are compared against an unprecedented assemblage of observations of subsurface eddies in the tropical oceans. In a first step we focus on eddies in the model that are detectable at the surface for more than 120 days. We found that around 60 % of the detected eddies have a vertical structure associated with a surface intensified mode as previously assumed which are characterized by a strong surface signature. Around 40 % of the eddy field have a vertical structure associated to a higher baroclinic mode. They are often called “intrathermocline” eddies and are characterized by a rather weak surface signature. In a second step we track subsurface eddies (lifetime > 120 days) in the model by identifying density layer thickness anomalies and connect them with possible surface signatures. Around 30 % of the total eddy field of the model, are hidden in the subsurface with no detectable surface signature. In conclusion, our results show that subsurface eddies form a substantial contribution to the total eddy field. Consequently it is difficult to estimate the impact of the eddy field on the ocean when only working with surface based satellite data.</p>

scholarly journals Toward a Weather-Based Forecasting System for Fire Blight and Downy Mildew

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Firanj Sremac ◽  
Branislava Lalić ◽  
Milena Marčić ◽  
Ljiljana Dekić
Keyword(s):  
Downy Mildew ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Plasmopara Viticola ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this research is to present a weather-based forecasting system for apple fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) and downy mildew of grapevine (Plasmopara viticola) under Serbian agroecological conditions and test its efficacy. The weather-based forecasting system contains Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs and a disease occurrence model. The weather forecast used is a product of the high-resolution forecast (HRES) atmospheric model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For disease modelling, we selected a biometeorological system for messages on the occurrence of diseases in fruits and vines (BAHUS) because it contains both diseases with well-known and tested algorithms. Several comparisons were made: (1) forecasted variables for the fifth day are compared against measurements from the agrometeorological network at seven locations for three months (March, April, and May) in the period 2012–2018 to determine forecast efficacy; (2) BAHUS runs driven with observed and forecast meteorology were compared to test the impact of forecasted meteorological data; and (3) BAHUS runs were compared with field disease observations to estimate system efficacy in plant disease forecasts. The BAHUS runs with forecasted and observed meteorology were in good agreement. The results obtained encourage further development, with the goal of fully utilizing this weather-based forecasting system.

scholarly journals Impact of vertical and horizontal advection on nutrient distribution in the southeast Pacific

Ocean Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1003-1011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bàrbara Barceló-Llull ◽  
Evan Mason ◽  
Arthur Capet ◽  
Ananda Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Nitrate Uptake ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Lagrangian Particle ◽  
Nutrient Distribution ◽  
Uptake Rates ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Omega Equation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Initial Distributions

Abstract. An innovative approach is used to analyze the impact of vertical velocities associated with quasi-geostrophic (QG) dynamics on the redistribution and uptake of nitrate in the southeast Pacific (SEP). A total of 12 years of vertical and horizontal currents are derived from an observation-based estimate of the ocean state. Horizontal velocities are obtained through the application of thermal wind balance to weekly temperature and salinity fields. Vertical velocities are estimated by integration of the QG omega equation. Seasonal variability of the synthetic vertical velocity and kinetic energy associated with the horizontal currents is coincident, with peaks in austral summer (November–December) in accord with published observations. The impact of vertical velocity on SEP nitrate uptake rates is assessed by using two Lagrangian particle tracking experiments that differ according to vertical forcing (ω = ωQG vs. ω = 0). From identical initial distributions of nitrate-tagged particles, the Lagrangian results show that vertical motions induce local increases in nitrate uptake reaching up to 30 %. Such increases occur in low uptake regions with high mesoscale activity. Despite being weaker than horizontal currents by a factor of up to 10−4, vertical velocity associated with mesoscale activity is demonstrated to make an important contribution to nitrate uptake, hence productivity, in low uptake regions.

scholarly journals The Fast Response of the Tropical Circulation to CO2 Forcing

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9903-9920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elina Plesca ◽  
Stefan A. Buehler ◽  
Verena Grützun
Keyword(s):  
Fast Response ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Independent Effect ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

Atmosphere-only CMIP5 idealized climate experiments with quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 are analyzed to understand the fast response of the tropical overturning circulation to this forcing and the main mechanism of this response. A new metric for the circulation, based on pressure velocity in the subsidence regions, is defined, taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions and their reduced sensitivity to the GCM’s cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes. This definition permits us to decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate. A comparative analysis of aqua- and Earth-like planet experiments reveals the effect of the land–sea contrast on the total change in circulation. On average, under the influence of CO2 increase without surface warming, the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3%–4% slowdown of the tropical circulation. Even in an Earth-like planet setup, the circulation weakening is dominated by the radiatively driven changes in the subsidence regions over the oceans. However, the land–sea differential heating contributes to the vertical pattern of the circulation weakening by driving the vertical expansion of the tropics. It is further found that the surface warming would, independently of the CO2 effect, lead to up to a 12% slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere. The two mechanisms identified above combine in the coupled experiment with abrupt quadrupling, causing a circulation slowdown (focused in the upper troposphere) of up to 18%. Here, the independent effect of CO2 has a considerable impact only at time scales less than one year, being overtaken quickly by the impact of surface warming.

Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (23) ◽  
pp. 6005-6024 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Van den Dool ◽  
Peitao Peng ◽  
Åke Johansson ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah ◽  
Amir Shabbar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Basic Material ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada and the United States, and some fresh calculations using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The general impression is one of low predictability (due to the Atlantic) for seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation over NA. Predictability may be slightly better in the Caribbean and the (sub)tropical Americas, even for precipitation. The NAO is widely seen as an agent making the Atlantic influence felt in NA. While the NAO is well established in most months, its prediction skill is limited. Year-round evidence for an equatorially displaced version of the NAO (named ED_NAO) carrying a good fraction of the variance is also found. In general the predictability from the Pacific is thought to dominate over that from the Atlantic sector, which explains the minimal number of reported Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs that explore Atlantic-only impacts. Caveats are noted as to the question of the influence of a single predictor in a nonlinear environment with many predictors. Skill of a new one-tier global coupled atmosphere–ocean model system at NCEP is reviewed; limited skill is found in midlatitudes and there is modest predictability to look forward to. There are several signs of enthusiasm in the community about using “trends” (low-frequency variations): (a) seasonal forecast tools include persistence of last 10 years’ averaged anomaly (relative to the official 30-yr climatology), (b) hurricane forecasts are based largely on recognizing a global multidecadal mode (which is similar to an Atlantic trend mode in SST), and (c) two recent papers, one empirical and one modeling, giving equal roles to the (North) Pacific and Atlantic in “explaining” variations in drought frequency over NA on a 20 yr or longer time scale during the twentieth century.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document