Constraining the model representation of the aerosol life cycle in relation to sources and sinks.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Kim ◽  
Daniel Partridge ◽  
James Haywood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Source And Sink

<p>Global climate model (GCM) ensembles still produce a significant spread of estimates for the future of climate change which hinders our ability to influence policymakers. The range of these estimates can only partly be explained by structural differences and varying choice of parameterisation schemes between GCMs. GCM representation of cloud and aerosol processes, more specifically aerosol microphysical properties, remain a key source of uncertainty contributing to the wide spread of climate change estimates. The radiative effect of aerosol is directly linked to the microphysical properties and these are in turn controlled by aerosol source and sink processes during transport as well as meteorological conditions.</p><p>A Lagrangian, trajectory-based GCM evaluation framework, using spatially and temporally collocated aerosol diagnostics, has been applied to over a dozen GCMs via the AeroCom initiative. This framework is designed to isolate the source and sink processes that occur during the aerosol life cycle in order to improve the understanding of the impact of these processes on the simulated aerosol burden. Measurement station observations linked to reanalysis trajectories are then used to evaluate each GCM with respect to a quasi-observational standard to assess GCM skill. The AeroCom trajectory experiment specifies strict guidelines for modelling groups; all simulations have wind fields nudged to ERA-Interim reanalysis and all simulations use emissions from the same inventories. This ensures that the discrepancies between GCM parameterisations are emphasised and differences due to large scale transport patterns, emissions and other external factors are minimised.</p><p>Preliminary results from the AeroCom trajectory experiment will be presented and discussed, some of which are summarised now. A comparison of GCM aerosol particle number size distributions against observations made by measurement stations in different environments will be shown, highlighting the difficulties that GCMs have at reproducing observed aerosol concentrations across all size ranges in pristine environments. The impact of precipitation during transport on aerosol microphysical properties in each GCM will be shown and the implications this has on resulting aerosol forcing estimates will be discussed. Results demonstrating the trajectory collocation framework will highlight its ability to give more accurate estimates of the key aerosol sources in GCMs and the importance of these sources in influencing modelled aerosol-cloud effects. In summary, it will be shown that this analysis approach enables us to better understand the drivers behind inter-model and model-observation discrepancies.</p>

Eco-efficient flight trajectories – Using a Lagrangian approach in EMAC to investigate contrail formation in the mid latitudes 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Peter ◽  
Sigrun Matthes ◽  
Christine Frömming ◽  
Volker Grewe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Aircraft Trajectories ◽  
The Impact

<p>Air transport has for a long time been linked to environmental issues like pollution, noise and climate change. While CO2 emissions are the main focus in public discussions, non-CO2 emissions of aviation may have a similar impact on the climate as aviation's carbon dioxide, e.g. contrail cirrus, nitrogen oxides or aviation induced cloudiness. While the effects of CO2 on climate are independent of location and situation during release, non-CO2 effects such as contrail formation vary depending on meteorological background. Previous studies investigated the influence of different weather situations on aviation’s climate change contribution, identifying climate sensitive regions and generating data products which enable air traffic management (ATM) to plan for climate optimized trajectories.</p> <p>The research presented here focuses on the further development of methods to determine the sensitivity of the atmosphere to aviation emissions with respect to climate effects in order to determine climate optimized aircraft trajectories. While previous studies focused on characterizing the North Atlantic Flight Corridor region, this study aims to extend the geographic scope by performing Lagrangian simulations in a global climate model EMAC for the northern hemispheric extratropical regions and tropical latitudes. This study addresses how realistically the physical conditions and processes for contrail formation and life cycle are represented in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by comparing them to airborne observations (HALO measurement campaign, CARIBIC/IAGOS scheduled flight measurements), examining key variables such as temperature or humidity. Direct comparison of model data with observations using clusters of data provides insight into the extent to which systematic biases exist that are relevant to the climate effects of contrails. We perform this comparison for different vertical resolutions to assess which vertical resolution in the EMAC model is well suited for studying contrail formation. Together with this model evaluation using aircraft measurements, the overall concept for studying the life cycle of contrails in the modular global climate model EMAC is introduced. Hereby, the concept for the development of a MET service that can be provided to ATM to evaluate contrail formation and its impact on the climate along planned aircraft trajectories is presented.</p> <p>Within the ClimOP collaborative project, we can investigate which physical processes determine the effects of contrails on climate and study their spatial and temporal variation. In addition, these climate change functions enable case studies that assess the impact of contrails on climate along trajectories and use alternative trajectories that avoid these regions of the atmosphere that have the potential to form contrails with a large radiative effect.</p> <p>This study is part of the ClimOP project and has received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement N° 875503 (ClimOP) and from the SESAR Joint Undertaking under grant agreements No 699395 (FlyATM4E). </p>

scholarly journals Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1383-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Hannah M. Christensen ◽  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1617-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Olaf Burghoff ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 7231-7245
Author(s):  
F. F. Hattermann ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
O. Burghoff ◽  
P. Hoffmann ◽  
Z. W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

scholarly journals How Can Climate Change Affect the UNESCO Cultural Heritage Sites in Panama?

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Ciantelli ◽  
Elisa Palazzi ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Carmela Vaccaro ◽  
Francesca Tittarelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
The Impact

This work investigates the impact of long-term climate change on heritage sites in Latin America, focusing on two important sites in the Panamanian isthmus included in the World Heritage List: the monumental site of Panamá Viejo (16th century) and the Fortresses of Portobelo and San Lorenzo (17th to 18th centuries). First of all, in order to support the conservation and valorisation of these sites, a characterisation of the main construction materials utilized in the building masonries was performed together with an analysis of the meteoclimatic conditions in their vicinity as provided by monitoring stations recording near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall amounts. Secondly, the same climate variables were analysed in the historical and future simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model, EC-Earth, run at high horizontal resolution, and then used with damage functions to make projections of deterioration phenomena on the Panamanian heritage sites. In particular, we performed an evaluation of the possible surface recession, biomass accumulation, and deterioration due to salt crystallisation cycles on these sites in the future (by midcentury, 2039–2068) compared to the recent past (1979–2008), considering a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bano Mehdi ◽  
Julie Dekens ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Far Future

AbstractThe Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

scholarly journals Indigenous vegetation burning practices and their impact on the climate of the northern Australian monsoon region

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 10313-10332 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.-H. Wyrwoll ◽  
F. H. McRobie ◽  
M. Notaro ◽  
G. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Here we pose the question: was there a downturn in summer monsoon precipitation over northern Australia due to Aboriginal vegetation practices over prehistoric time scales? In answering this question we consider the results from a global climate model incorporating ocean, land, ice, atmosphere and vegetation interactions, reducing the total vegetation cover over northern Australia by 20% to simulate the effects of burning. The results suggest that burning forests and woodlands in the monsoon region of Australia led to a shift in the regional climate, with a delayed monsoon onset and reduced precipitation in the months preceding the "full" monsoon. We place these results in a global context, drawing on model results from five other monsoon regions, and note that although the precipitation response is highly varied, there is a general but region specific climate response to reduced vegetation cover in all cases. Our findings lead us to conclude that large-scale vegetation modification over millennial time-scales due to indigenous burning practices, would have had significant impacts on regional climates. With this conclusion comes the need to recognise that the Anthropocene saw the impact of humans on regional-scale climates and hydrologies at much earlier times than generally recognized.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auwal F. Abdussalam ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Daniel F. Steinhoff ◽  
Vanja M. Dukic ◽  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily populated northwest Nigeria with an annual incidence rate ranging from 18 to 200 per 100 000 people for 2000–11. Several studies have established that cases exhibit sensitivity to intra- and interannual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations of seven meteorological variables from an ensemble of 13 statistically downscaled global climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, with the numbers representing the globally averaged top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance (in W m−2) in 2100. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early (2020–35) and late (2060–75) twenty-first century, and for the seasonal onset of meningitis to begin about a month earlier on average by late century, in October rather than November. Annual incidence may increase by 47% ± 8%, 64% ± 9%, and 99% ± 12% for the RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in 2060–75 with respect to 1990–2005. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as it is assumed that current prevention and treatment strategies will remain similar in the future.

scholarly journals Separating Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Daytime Convective Development over Land

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5213-5234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech W. Grabowski ◽  
Andreas F. Prein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
The Impact

AbstractClimate change affects the dynamics and thermodynamics of moist convection. Changes in the dynamics concern, for instance, an increase of convection strength due to increases of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Thermodynamics involve increases in water vapor that the warmer atmosphere can hold and convection can work with. Small-scale simulations are conducted to separate these two components for daytime development of unorganized convection over land. The simulations apply a novel modeling technique referred to as the piggybacking (or master–slave) approach and consider the global climate model (GCM)-predicted change of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the Amazon region at the end of the century under a business-as-usual scenario. The simulations show that the dynamic impact dominates because changes in cloudiness and rainfall come from cloud dynamics considerations, such as the change in CAPE and convective inhibition (CIN) combined with the impact of environmental relative humidity (RH) on deep convection. The small RH reduction between the current and future climate significantly affects the mean surface rain accumulation as it changes from a small reduction to a small increase when the RH decrease is eliminated. The thermodynamic impact on cloudiness and precipitation is generally small, with the extreme rainfall intensifying much less than expected from an atmospheric moisture increase. These results are discussed in the context of previous studies concerning climate change–induced modifications of moist convection. Future research directions applying the piggybacking method are discussed.

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