Antarctic Uncertainty: Learning more about past ice sheet shapes with Bayesian methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona Turner ◽  
Richard Wilkinson ◽  
Caitlin Buck ◽  
Julie M. Jones ◽  
Louise Sime
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Water Isotope

<p>Understanding the effect warming has on ice sheets is vital for accurate projections of climate change. A better understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheets have changed size and shape in the past would allow us to improve our predictions of how they may adapt in the future; this is of particular relevance in predicting future global sea level changes. This research makes use of previous reconstructions of the ice sheets, ice core data and Bayesian methods to create a model of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We do this by finding the relationship between the ice sheet shape and water isotope values. </p><p>We developed a prior model which describes the variation between a set of ice sheet reconstructions at the LGM. A set of ice sheet shapes formed using this model was determined by a consultation with experts and run through the general circulation model HadCM3, providing us with paired data sets of ice sheet shapes and water isotope estimates. The relationship between ice sheet shape and water isotopes is explored using a Gaussian process emulator of HadCM3, building a statistical distribution describing the shape of the ice sheets given the isotope values outputted by the climate model. We then use MCMC to sample from the posterior distribution of the ice sheet shape and attempt to find a shape that creates isotopic values matching as closely as possible to the observations collected from ice cores. This allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the shape and incorporate expert beliefs about the Antarctic ice sheet during this time period. Our results suggests that there may have been a thicker West Antarctic ice sheet at the LGM than previously estimated.</p>

First results from coupling the Parallel Ice Sheet Model with the Modular Ocean Model via an Antarctic ice-shelf cavity module

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Kreuzer ◽  
Ronja Reese ◽  
Willem Huiskamp ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short time scales of decades to a few centuries. To study global and long term interactions, we developed a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO. Since ice-shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5, but parameterized with the box model PICO, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean model to be run at resolution of 16 km and 3 degrees, respectively. We present first results from our coupled setup and discuss stability, feedbacks, and interactions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on millennial time scales.</p>

scholarly journals The Relationship of Ultrasonic Velocities to c-axis Fabrics and Relaxation Characteristics of Ice Cores from Byrd Station, Antarctica

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 147-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Gow ◽  
H. Kohnen
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Ultrasonic Technique ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Axis Orientation ◽  
Crystal Anisotropy ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Relaxation Characteristics

Abstract Deep cores from Byrd Station were used to calibrate an ultrasonic technique of evaluating crystal anisotropy in the Antarctic ice sheet. Velocities measured parallel (V p ↓) and perpendicular (V p →) to the vertical axis of the cores yielded data in excellent agreement with the observed c-axis fabric profile and with the in-situ P-wave velocity profile measured parallel to the bore-hole axis by Bentley. Velocity differences ΔV (ΔV = V p ↓ – V p→) in excess of 140 m s−1 for cores from below 1300 m attest to the tight clustering of c-axes of crystals about the vertical, especially in the zone 1 300-1800 m. A small but significant decline in V p ↓ with ageing of the core, as deduced from Bentley’s down-hole data, is attributed to the formation of oriented cracks that occur in the ice cores as they relax from environmental stresses. This investigation of cores from the 2164 m thick ice sheet at Byrd Station establishes the ultrasonic technique as a viable method of monitoring relaxation characteristics of drilled cores and for determining the gross trends of c-axis orientation in ice sheets. The Byrd Station data, in conjunction with Barkov’s investigation of deep cores from Vostok, East Antarctica, also indicate that crystal anisotropy in the Antarctic ice sheet is dominated by a clustering of c-axes about a vertical symmetry axis.

scholarly journals The glacial geomorphology of the Antarctic ice sheet bed

2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 724-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart S.R. Jamieson ◽  
Chris R. Stokes ◽  
Neil Ross ◽  
David M. Rippin ◽  
Robert G. Bingham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Landscape Evolution ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Glacial Erosion ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
The Past ◽  
Valley Network ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheets

AbstractIn 1976, David Sugden and Brian John developed a classification for Antarctic landscapes of glacial erosion based upon exposed and eroded coastal topography, providing insight into the past glacial dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets. We extend this classification to cover the continental interior of Antarctica by analysing the hypsometry of the subglacial landscape using a recently released dataset of bed topography (BEDMAP2). We used the existing classification as a basis for first developing a low-resolution description of landscape evolution under the ice sheet before building a more detailed classification of patterns of glacial erosion. Our key finding is that a more widespread distribution of ancient, preserved alpine landscapes may survive beneath the Antarctic ice sheets than has been previously recognized. Furthermore, the findings suggest that landscapes of selective erosion exist further inland than might be expected, and may reflect the presence of thinner, less extensive ice in the past. Much of the selective nature of erosion may be controlled by pre-glacial topography, and especially by the large-scale tectonic structure and fluvial valley network. The hypotheses of landscape evolution presented here can be tested by future surveys of the Antarctic ice sheet bed.

scholarly journals Sources of holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1133-1162 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. N. LeGrande ◽  
G. A. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Water Isotope

Abstract. Variability in water isotopes has been captured in numerous archives and used to infer climate change. Here we examine water isotope variability over the course of the Holocene using the water-isotope enabled, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, GISS ModelE-R. Eight Holocene time slices, mostly 1000 years apart are simulated using estimated changes in orbital configuration, greenhouse gases, and ice sheet extent. We find that water isotopes in the model match well with those captured in proxy climate archives in ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and speleothems. The climate changes associated with the water isotope changes, however, are more complex than simple modern analog interpretations. In particular, water isotope variability in Asian speleothems is linked to alterations in landward water vapor transport, not local precipitation, and ice sheet changes over North America lead to masking of temperature signals in Summit, Greenland. Salinity-seawater isotope variability is complicated by inter-ocean basin exchanges of water vapor. Water isotopes do reflect variability in the hydrologic cycle, but are better interpreted in terms of regional changes rather than local climate variables.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet: an analog for Northern Hemisphere paleo-ice sheets?

2020 ◽  
pp. 25-72
Author(s):  
Terry J. Hughes ◽  
George H. Denton ◽  
James L. Fastook
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
The Antarctic

Impact of ice sheet reconstructions on the deglacial climate in iLOVECLIM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaelle Bouttes ◽  
Didier Roche ◽  
Fanny Lhardy ◽  
Aurelien Quiquet ◽  
Didier Paillard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Climate Evolution ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

<p>The last deglaciation is a time of large climate transition from a cold Last Glacial Maximum at 21,000 years BP with extensive ice sheets, to the warmer Holocene 9,000 years BP onwards with reduced ice sheets. Despite more and more proxy data documenting this transition, the evolution of climate is not fully understood and difficult to simulate. The PMIP4 protocol (Ivanovic et al., 2016) has indicated which boundary conditions to use in model simulations during this transition. The common boundary conditions should enable consistent multi model and model-data comparisons. While the greenhouse gas concentration evolution and orbital forcing are well known and easy to prescribe, the evolution of ice sheets is less well constrained and several choices can be made by modelling groups. First, two ice sheet reconstructions are available: ICE-6G (Peltier et al., 2015) and GLAC-1D (Tarasov et al., 2014). On top of topographic changes, it is left to modelling groups to decide whether to account for the associated bathymetry and land-sea mask changes, which is technically more demanding. These choices could potentially lead to differences in the climate evolution, making model comparisons more complicated.</p><p>We use the iLOVECLIM model of intermediate complexity (Goosse et al., 2010) to evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and the effect of bathymetry changes on the global climate evolution during the Last deglaciation. We test the two ice sheet reconstructions (ICE-6G and GLAC-1D), and have implemented changes of bathymetry and land-sea mask. In addition, we also evaluate the impact of accounting for the Antarctic ice sheet evolution compared to the Northern ice sheets only.</p><p>We show that despite showing the same long-term changes, the two reconstructions lead to different evolutions. The bathymetry plays a role, although only few changes take place before ~14ka. Finally, the impact of the Antarctic ice sheet is important during the deglaciation and should not be neglected.</p><p>References</p><p>Goosse, H., et al., Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010</p><p>Ivanovic, R. F., et al., Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present (version 1) – PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016</p><p>Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F., and Drummond, R., Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 450–487, doi:10.1002/2014JB011176, 2015</p><p>Tarasov,L.,  et al., The global GLAC-1c deglaciation chronology, melwater pulse 1-a, and a question of missing ice, IGS Symposium on Contribution of Glaciers and Ice Sheets to Sea-Level Change, 2014</p>

scholarly journals Mass balance of the Sør Rondane glacial system, East Antarctica

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (70) ◽  
pp. 63-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Callens ◽  
Nicolas Thonnard ◽  
Jan T.M. Lenaerts ◽  
Jan M. Van Wessem ◽  
Willem Jan Van de Berg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractMass changes of polar ice sheets have an important societal impact, because they affect global sea level. Estimating the current mass budget of ice sheets is equivalent to determining the balance between surface mass gain through precipitation and outflow across the grounding line. For the Antarctic ice sheet, grounding line outflow is governed by oceanic processes and outlet glacier dynamics. In this study, we compute the mass budget of major outlet glaciers in the eastern Dronning Maud Land sector of the Antarctic ice sheet using the input/output method. Input is given by recent surface accumulation estimates (SMB) of the whole drainage basin. The outflow at the grounding line is determined from the radar data of a recent airborne survey and satellite-based velocities using a flow model of combined plug flow and simple shear. This approach is an improvement on previous studies, as the ice thickness is measured, rather than being estimated from hydrostatic equilibrium. In line with the general thickening of the ice sheet over this sector, we estimate the regional mass balance in this area at 3.15 ± 8.23 Gt a−1 according to the most recent SMB model results.

scholarly journals On the Origin of Stratified Debris in Ice Cores from the Bottom of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

1979 ◽  
Vol 23 (89) ◽  
pp. 185-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Gow ◽  
S. Epstein ◽  
W. Sheehy
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Gas Content ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Glacial Ice ◽  
Major Mechanism ◽  
Basal Ice ◽  
Polar Ice Sheets ◽  
Rock Interface ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Cores from the bottom 4.83 m of the Antarctic ice sheet at Byrd Station contain abundant stratified debris ranging from silt-sized particles to cobbles. The nature and disposition of the debris, together with measurements of the physical properties of the inclosing ice, indicate that this zone of dirt-laden ice originated by “freezing-in” at the base of the ice sheet. The transition from air-rich glacial ice to ice practically devoid of air coincided precisely with the first appearance of debris in the ice at 4.83 m above the bed. Stable-isotope studies made in conjunction with gas-content measurements also confirm the idea of incorporation of basal debris by adfreezing of melt water at the ice―rock interface. It is suggested that the absence of air from basal ice may well constitute the most diagnostic test for discriminating between debris incorporated in a melt―refreeze process and debris entrapped by purely mechanical means, e.g. shearing. We conclude from our observations on bottom cores from Byrd Station that “freezing-in” of basal debris is the major mechanism by which sediment is incorporated into polar ice sheets.

scholarly journals Unravelling the History of Climate Change

1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-223
Author(s):  
Ian D. Goodwin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spatial Configuration ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Sheet Surface ◽  
Evolutionary Response ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
The Antarctic

The spatial configuration of the Antarctic ice sheet has fluctuated widely during the Late Quaternary, primarily in response to climate and sea-level forcings. Ice core time-series have long been used as proxy climate records for the Antarctic ice sheet surface and polar atmosphere, and there has been a major multinational effort to drill ice cores on or near the summit of ice domes to retrieve the longest possible records. The annual layering of ice accumulation has afforded high resolution proxy climate records on annual to decadal intervals, spanning a few hundred to hundreds of thousands of years. These time-series have also detailed the changes in the ice sheet surface elevation and dynamics, particularly since the transition from glacial to Holocene climate. However, ice sheet sensitivity to external forcings and the associated fluctuations in ice volume are probably best researched around the ice sheet's margins. The sedimentary record in these circumAntarctic margins holds the key to our unravelling of past and future responses of the Antarctic ice sheet and circumpolar oceans to climate and environmental change, including: fluctuations in ice volume; the distribution of ice shelves; the production of Antarctic bottom water; the variability in the fast ice and pack ice characteristics; biogeochemical cycling and marine productivity; and the evolutionary response of marine and terrestrial species and ecosystems.

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