German Near-Real Time Ensemble Hydroclimate Forecasting System
<p>Helmholtz Centres are developing a research infrastructure in Germany to investigate the interactions of short-term events and long-term trends across Earth compartments under the Modular Observation Solutions for Earth System initiate (MOSES-&#160;https://www.ufz.de/moses/).&#160;A near-real time hydroclimate forecasting system at sub-seasonal to seasonal time range (HS2S) is developed for MOSES to provide tailored information for early warning of extreme events.&#160;</p><p>Here, we introduce two components of the HS2S which benefits from operational forecasts provided by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The first component is weekly averaged forecasts of two atmospheric variables (total precipitation and maximum air temperature) which are bias corrected using a trend-preserving approach. The second component is German hydrological forecasting system. We use the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM- https://www.ufz.de/mhm)&#160;for generating hydrological initial conditions and ensemble forecasting. The same approach by German Drought Monitor (www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) is applied to interpolate near-real time in-situ observations from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) into 1-km grids. Then 51 real-time atmospheric daily ensemble forecasts from ECMWF ensemble extended product are bias corrected to generate of soil moisture and streamflow forecasts up to 30-day in advance. By post-processing mHM ensemble forecasts, an overview of drought conditions for the next 30-days horizon is disseminated online over Germany (https://www.ufz.de/moses/index.php?en=47304). Hydroclimate forecast are updated operationally twice a week to support MOSES event-driven campaigns for flood, drought and heat waves and to understand the predictability and skill of near-real time hydroclimate forecasts in Central Europe based on the state-of-the-art models and tools.&#160;&#160;</p>