Mid-Pliocene warming: reducing discrepancies between geological archives and climate models in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hall ◽  
Stephen Jones ◽  
Tom Dunkley Jones ◽  
James Bendle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Recent Time ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ne Atlantic ◽  
Irreversible Adsorption ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Dsdp Site

<p>The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) is the most recent time slice (3.264–3.025 Ma) during which average global surface temperatures were 2–3°C warmer than preindustrial conditions, within the range estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the end of the 21<sup>st </sup>Century. Global mPWP sea surface temperature (SST) compilations indicate enhanced warming in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas, with anomalies of >6°C based on alkenone methods (Dowsett et al., 2012). However, this warming far exceeds the more conservative SST estimates (a rise of 2−3°C) predicted by the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) reconstructions and leading climate models (including HadCM3). Here, we present new mid-Pliocene alkenone SST records from four regional drilling sites (IODP Site U1308, DSDP Site 552, ODP Site 642 and ODP Site 907) to further examine the magnitude of warming in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and to evaluate regional discrepancies between proxy and model SST estimates. We demonstrate mid-Pliocene SSTs peaked up to 21.5°C and 19.7°C in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas, respectively, consistent with existing studies (Robinson et al., 2008; Robinson, 2009). However, we reveal the majority of these SST estimates are derived from GC injections of relatively low total alkenone concentrations (<50 ng/µl), which are susceptible to warming biases caused by chromatographic irreversible adsorption (Grimalt et al., 2001). We subsequently filtered and applied a mathematical correction to our new data to rectify for these warming biases, which results in a reduction in mPWP SSTs, by up to 3.2°C, across all four sites. The corrected (and cooler) alkenone SST records indicate the magnitude of warming in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas may be significantly less than previously thought, helping to reduce and explain regional discrepancies between proxy- and model-based SST reconstructions.</p>

scholarly journals Surface Temperature of the Planet Earth from Satellite Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 218 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Antonio Sobrino ◽  
Yves Julien ◽  
Susana García-Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
Single Pixel

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regular scientific assessments of global warming is based on measurements of air temperature from weather stations, buoys or ships. More specifically, air temperature annual means are estimated from their integration into climate models, with some areas (Africa, Antarctica, seas) being clearly underrepresented. Present satellites allow estimation of surface temperature for a full coverage of our planet with a sub-daily revisit frequency and kilometric resolution. In this work, a simple methodology is developed that allows estimating the surface temperature of Planet Earth with MODIS Terra and Aqua land and sea surface temperature products, as if the whole planet was reduced to a single pixel. The results, through a completely independent methodology, corroborate the temperature anomalies retrieved from climate models and show a linear warming trend of 0.018 ± 0.007 °C/yr.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (11) ◽  
pp. 2341-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
H. T. Hewitt ◽  
C. Bates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

scholarly journals Atmospheric Blocking and Mean Biases in Climate Models

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6143-6152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Jeff Knight ◽  
Gill Martin ◽  
Tim Hinton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Main Culprit

Abstract Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking.

scholarly journals An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl E. Taylor ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Experiment Design ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.

Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Jing ◽  
Gilles Bélanger ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Vern Baron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutritive Value ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phleum Pratense ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

Regional Climate Modeling for the Baltic Sea Region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used to provide detailed regional to local information for climate change assessments, impact studies, and work on climate change adaptation. The Baltic Sea region is well suited for RCM evaluation due to its complexity and good availability of observations. Evaluation of RCM performance over the Baltic Sea region suggests that: • Given appropriate boundary conditions, RCMs can reproduce many aspects of the climate in the Baltic Sea region. • High resolution improves the ability of RCMs to simulate significant processes in a realistic way. • When forced by global climate models (GCMs) with errors in their representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and/or sea surface conditions, performance of RCMs deteriorates. • Compared to GCMs, RCMs can add value on the regional scale, related to both the atmosphere and other parts of the climate system, such as the Baltic Sea, if appropriate coupled regional model systems are used. Future directions for regional climate modeling in the Baltic Sea region would involve testing and applying even more high-resolution, convection permitting, models to generally better represent climate features like heavy precipitation extremes. Also, phenomena more specific to the Baltic Sea region are expected to benefit from higher resolution (these include, for example, convective snowbands over the sea in winter). Continued work on better describing the fully coupled regional climate system involving the atmosphere and its interaction with the sea surface and land areas is also foreseen as beneficial. In this respect, atmospheric aerosols are important components that deserve more attention.

scholarly journals Detection of large above-ground biomass variability in lowland forest ecosystems by airborne LiDAR

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 3917-3930 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jubanski ◽  
U. Ballhorn ◽  
K. Kronseder ◽  
F. Siegert ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Above Ground Biomass ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lowland Forest ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Ground Biomass

Abstract. Quantification of tropical forest above-ground biomass (AGB) over large areas as input for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects and climate change models is challenging. This is the first study which attempts to estimate AGB and its variability across large areas of tropical lowland forests in Central Kalimantan (Indonesia) through correlating airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) to forest inventory data. Two LiDAR height metrics were analysed, and regression models could be improved through the use of LiDAR point densities as input (R2 = 0.88; n = 52). Surveying with a LiDAR point density per square metre of about 4 resulted in the best cost / benefit ratio. We estimated AGB for 600 km of LiDAR tracks and showed that there exists a considerable variability of up to 140% within the same forest type due to varying environmental conditions. Impact from logging operations and the associated AGB losses dating back more than 10 yr could be assessed by LiDAR but not by multispectral satellite imagery. Comparison with a Landsat classification for a 1 million ha study area where AGB values were based on site-specific field inventory data, regional literature estimates, and default values by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed an overestimation of 43%, 102%, and 137%, respectively. The results show that AGB overestimation may lead to wrong greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates due to deforestation in climate models. For REDD+ projects this leads to inaccurate carbon stock estimates and consequently to significantly wrong REDD+ based compensation payments.

scholarly journals The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Tropopause Height Trends

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
High Vertical Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The evolution of the tropopause in the past, present, and future climate is examined by analyzing a set of long-term integrations with stratosphere-resolving chemistry climate models (CCMs). These CCMs have high vertical resolution near the tropopause, a model top located in the mesosphere or above, and, most important, fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Using such CCM integrations, it is found that the tropopause pressure (height) will continue to decrease (increase) in the future, but with a trend weaker than that in the recent past. The reduction in the future tropopause trend is shown to be directly associated with stratospheric ozone recovery. A significant ozone recovery occurs in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere of the CCMs, and this leads to a relative warming there that reduces the tropopause trend in the twenty-first century. The future tropopause trends predicted by the CCMs are considerably smaller than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models, especially in the southern high latitudes. This difference persists even when the CCMs are compared with the subset of the AR4 model integrations for which stratospheric ozone recovery was prescribed. These results suggest that a realistic representation of the stratospheric processes might be important for a reliable estimate of tropopause trends. The implications of these finding for the Southern Hemisphere climate change are also discussed.

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