scholarly journals Trends in heat stress over Europe over the 20th century

Author(s):  
Joakim Kjellsson ◽  
Nils Niebaum ◽  
Robin Pilch Kedzierski

<p>We investigate how European heat waves and their associated heat stress on humans have changed over the 20th century. We find that the heat stress has increased, even in regions where heat waves have not become warmer. As heat stress increases over wide areas of Europe there is also an increase in the total population affected by the heat stress. </p><p>Heat waves pose a serious health risk to humans by reducing our ability to shed heat. We have studied the occurrence and intensity of heat waves as well as a heat stress index based on simplified wet-bulb globe temperature using data from ERA-20C reanalysis 1900-2010. Over the 110 years of data we find an overall warming of the air temperatures and dew point. The 98th percentile of both air temperature has increased by more than 1.5°C over large areas of Europe. </p><p>We find an overall increase in heat wave days per year as well as an increase of air temperature during heat waves over most of Europe. As such, many densely populated areas exhibit increased heat stress during heat waves. For example, the mean heat stress during heat wave days over Paris has increased by one level, from “alert” in 1900-1930 to “caution” in 1980-2010. The fraction of the population exposed to heat waves has increased by 10%/century in central Europe and 25%/century over the Mediterranean. </p><p>We find more heat waves during 1920 - 1950, which may be related to the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variation (AMV). This suggests that the heat stress during European heat waves may also be influenced by internal climate variability, and large-ensemble model simulations may be used to disentangle the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing.</p>

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans J. De Boeck ◽  
Helena Van De Velde ◽  
Toon De Groote ◽  
Ivan Nijs

Abstract. Climate change models project an important increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. In gauging the impact on plant responses, much of the focus has been on air temperatures while a critical analysis of leaf temperatures during heat extremes has not been made. Nevertheless, direct physiological consequences from heat depend primarily on leaf rather than on air temperatures. We discuss how the interplay between various environmental variables and the plants' stomatal response affects leaf temperatures and the potential for heat stress by making use of both an energy balance model and field data. The results demonstrate that this interplay between plants and environment can cause leaf temperatures fluctuations in excess of 10 °C (for narrow leaves) to even 20 °C (for big broad leaves) at the same air temperature. In general, leaves tended to heat up when radiation was high and when stomates were closed, as expected. But perhaps counterintuitively, also high air humidity raised leaf temperatures, while humid conditions are typically regarded as benign with respect to plant survival since they limit water loss. High wind speeds brought the leaf temperature closer to the air temperature, which can imply either cooling or warming (i.e. abating or reinforcing heat stress) depending on other prevailing conditions. The results thus indicate that heat waves characterized by similar extreme air temperatures may pose little danger under some atmospheric conditions, but could be lethal in other cases. The trends illustrated here should give ecologists and agronomists a more informed indication about which circumstances are most conductive for heat stress to occur.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 755-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urša Ciuha ◽  
Tjaša Pogačar ◽  
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj ◽  
Mitja Gliha ◽  
Lars Nybo ◽  
...  

Abstract Occupational heat strain is a public health threat, and for outdoor industries there is a direct influence from elevated environmental temperatures during heat waves. However, the impact in indoor settings is more complex as industrial heat production and building architecture become factors of importance. Therefore, this study evaluated effects of heat waves on manufacturing productivity. Production halls in a manufacturing company were instrumented with 33 dataloggers to track air temperature and humidity. In addition, outdoor thermal conditions collected from a weather station next to the factory and daily productivity evaluated as overall equipment efficiency (OEE) were obtained, with interaction between productivity and thermal conditions analyzed before, during, and after four documented heat waves (average daily air temperature above 24°C on at least three consecutive days). Outdoor (before: 21.3° ± 4.6°C, during: 25.5° ± 4.3°C, and after: 19.8° ± 3.8°C) and indoor air temperatures (before: 30.4° ± 1.3°C, during: 32.8° ± 1.4°C, and after: 30.1° ± 1.4°C) were significantly elevated during the heat waves (p < 0.05). OEE was not different during the heat waves when compared with control, pre-heat-wave, and post-heat-wave OEE. Reduced OEE was observed in 3-day periods following the second and fourth heat wave (p < 0.05). Indoor workers in settings with high industrial heat production are exposed to a significant thermal stress that may increase during heat waves, but the impact on productivity cannot be directly derived from outdoor factors. The significant decline in productivity immediately following two of the documented heat waves could relate to a cumulative effect of the thermal strain experienced during work combined with high heat stress in the recovery time between work shifts.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 5821-5825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans J. De Boeck ◽  
Helena Van De Velde ◽  
Toon De Groote ◽  
Ivan Nijs

Abstract. Climate models project an important increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. In gauging the impact on plant responses, much of the focus has been on air temperatures, while a critical analysis of leaf temperatures during heat extremes has not been conducted. Nevertheless, direct physiological consequences from heat depend primarily on leaf rather than on air temperatures. We discuss how the interplay between various environmental variables and the plants' stomatal response affects leaf temperatures and the potential for heat stress by making use of both an energy balance model and field data. The results demonstrate that this interplay between plants and environment can cause leaf temperature to vary substantially at the same air temperature. In general, leaves tended to heat up when radiation was high and when stomates were closed, as expected. But perhaps counterintuitively, high air humidity also raised leaf temperatures, while humid conditions are typically regarded as benign with respect to plant survival since they limit water loss. High wind speeds brought the leaf temperature closer to the air temperature, which can imply either cooling or warming (i.e. abating or reinforcing heat stress) depending on other prevailing conditions. The results thus indicate that heat waves characterized by similar extreme air temperatures may pose little danger under some atmospheric conditions but could be lethal in other cases. The trends illustrated here should give ecologists and agronomists a more informed indication about which circumstances are most conducive to the occurrence of heat stress.


Author(s):  
MARGARYAN V.G. ◽  

The features of the thermal regime of the surface air layer in the Debed river basin are considered. A statistical analysis of the average annual and average seasonal values of air temperature from 1964 to 2018 was carried out, two periods were identified, their time course was shown. The analysis was carried out using data from six meteorological stations representing the lowland, mountain and high-mountain climatic zones of the Debed river basin. A correlation was obtained between the absolute altitude and the monthly average values of air temperature for January and July, which can be used to assess the thermal conditions of unexplored or poorly studied territories and for cartography. The time course of average values of air temperatures for the seasonal period has been studied. Analysis of trend lines of temporal changes in air temperatures shows that in all situations on the territory of the basin as a whole, there is a tendency of temperature growth. Moreover, with a range of interannual fluctuations, a break in the course of temperatures in the early to mid 1990 is clearly visible, after which their significant increase began. It turned out that a significant increase in seasonal temperatures is observed especially over the period 1993-2018, which means that the annual warming after the mid 1990 occurred primarily due to summer and spring seasons. The regular dynamics indicates that in the studied area in terms of temperatures, a tendency of softening winters, a decrease in the water content of rivers, aridization of the climate. The results obtained can be used to assess the regularities of the spatial-temporal distribution of the temperature of the study area, to clarify the thermal balance, for the rational use of heat resources, as well as in the development of strategic programs for longterm analysis.


2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A73.2-A73
Author(s):  
Matthias Otto ◽  
Tord Kjellstrom ◽  
Bruno Lemke

Exposure to extreme heat negatively affects occupational health. Heat stress indices like Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) combine temperature and humidity and allow quantifying the climatic impact on human physiology and clinical health. Multi-day periods of high heat stress (aka. heat waves) affect occupational health and productivity independently from the absolute temperature levels; e.g. well-documented heat-waves in Europe caused disruption, hospitalisations and deaths (2003 French heat wave: more than 1000 extra deaths, 15–65 years, mainly men) even though the temperatures were within the normal range of hotter countries.Climate change is likely to increase frequency and severity of periods of high heat stress. However, current global grid-cell based climate models are not designed to predict heat waves, neither in terms of severity or frequency.By analysing 37 years of historic daily heat index data from almost 5000 global weather stations and comparing them to widely used grid-cell based climate model outputs over the same period, our research explores methods to assess the frequency and intensity of heat waves as well as the associated occupational health effects at any location around the world in the future.Weather station temperature extreme values (WBGT) for the 3 hottest days in 30 years exceed the mean WBGT of the hottest month calculated from climate models in the same grid-cell by about 2 degrees in the tropics but by 10 degrees at higher latitudes in temperate climate regions.Our model based on the relationship between actual recorded periods of elevated heat-stress and grid-cell based climate projections, in combination with population and employment projections, can quantify national and regional productivity loss and health effects with greater certainty than is currently the case.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>


2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo Yu Qiu ◽  
Kenji Omasa ◽  
Sadanori Sase

By introducing a reference dry leaf (a leaf without transpiration), a formerly proposed plant transpiration transfer coefficient (hat) was applied to detect environmental stress caused by water shortage and high temperature on melon, tomato and lettuce plants under various conditions. Results showed that there were obvious differences between leaf temperature, dry reference leaf temperature and air temperature. The proposed coefficient hat could integrate the three temperatures and quantitatively evaluate the environmental stress of plants. Experimental results showed that the water stress of melon plants under two irrigation treatments was clearly distinguished by using the coefficient. The water stress of a tomato plant as the soil dried under a controlled environmental condition was sensitively detected by using hat. A linear relationship between hat and conventional crop water stress index was revealed with a regression determination coefficient R2 = 0.97. Further, hat was used to detect the heat stress of lettuce plants under high air temperature conditions (28.7°C) with three root temperature treatments (21.5, 25.9 and 29.5°C). The canopy temperature under these treatments was respectively 26.44, 27.15 and 27.46°C and the corresponding hat value was –1.11, –0.74 and –0.59. Heat stress was also sensitively detected using hat. The main advantage of hat is its simplicity for use in infrared applications.


Author(s):  
Josh Foster ◽  
James W. Smallcombe ◽  
Simon Hodder ◽  
Ollie Jay ◽  
Andreas D. Flouris ◽  
...  

AbstractHeat stress decreases human physical work capacity (PWC), but the extent to which solar radiation (SOLAR) compounds this response is not well understood. This study empirically quantified how SOLAR impacts PWC in the heat, considering wide, but controlled, variations in air temperature, humidity, and clothing coverage. We also provide correction equations so PWC can be quantified outdoors using heat stress indices that do not ordinarily account for SOLAR (including the Heat Stress Index, Humidex, and Wet-Bulb Temperature). Fourteen young adult males (7 donning a work coverall, 7 with shorts and trainers) walked for 1 h at a fixed heart rate of 130 beats∙min−1, in seven combinations of air temperature (25 to 45°C) and relative humidity (20 or 80%), with and without SOLAR (800 W/m2 from solar lamps). Cumulative energy expenditure in the heat, relative to the work achieved in a cool reference condition, was used to determine PWC%. Skin temperature was the primary determinant of PWC in the heat. In dry climates with exposed skin (0.3 Clo), SOLAR caused PWC to decrease exponentially with rising air temperature, whereas work coveralls (0.9 Clo) negated this effect. In humid conditions, the SOLAR-induced reduction in PWC was consistent and linear across all levels of air temperature and clothing conditions. Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index represented SOLAR correctly and did not require a correction factor. For the Heat Stress Index, Humidex, and Wet-Bulb Temperature, correction factors are provided enabling forecasting of heat effects on work productivity.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242279
Author(s):  
Paul J. Jacobs ◽  
M. K. Oosthuizen ◽  
C. Mitchell ◽  
Jonathan D. Blount ◽  
Nigel C. Bennett

Heat waves are known for their disastrous mass die-off effects due to dehydration and cell damage, but little is known about the non-lethal consequences of surviving severe heat exposure. Severe heat exposure can cause oxidative stress which can have negative consequences on animal cognition, reproduction and life expectancy. We investigated the current oxidative stress experienced by a mesic mouse species, the four striped field mouse, Rhabdomys dilectus through a heat wave simulation with ad lib water and a more severe temperature exposure with minimal water. Wild four striped field mice were caught between 2017 and 2019. We predicted that wild four striped field mice in the heat wave simulation would show less susceptibility to oxidative stress as compared to a more severe heat stress which is likely to occur in the future. Oxidative stress was determined in the liver, kidney and brain using malondialdehyde (MDA) and protein carbonyl (PC) as markers for oxidative damage, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) as markers of antioxidant defense. Incubator heat stress was brought about by increasing the body temperatures of animals to 39–40.8°C for 6 hours. A heat wave (one hot day, followed by a 3-day heatwave) was simulated by using temperature cycle that wild four striped field mice would experience in their local habitat (determined through weather station data using temperature and humidity), with maximal ambient temperature of 39°C. The liver and kidney demonstrated no changes in the simulated heat wave, but the liver had significantly higher SOD activity and the kidney had significantly higher lipid peroxidation in the incubator experiment. Dehydration significantly contributed to the increase of these markers, as is evident from the decrease in body mass after the experiment. The brain only showed significantly higher lipid peroxidation following the simulated heat wave with no significant changes following the incubator experiment. The significant increase in lipid peroxidation was not correlated to body mass after the experiment. The magnitude and duration of heat stress, in conjunction with dehydration, played a critical role in the oxidative stress experienced by each tissue, with the results demonstrating the importance of measuring multiple tissues to determine the physiological state of an animal. Current heat waves in this species have the potential of causing oxidative stress in the brain with future heat waves to possibly stress the kidney and liver depending on the hydration state of animals.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1259
Author(s):  
Rafael Brito Silveira ◽  
Maikon Passos Amilton Alves ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Daniel Pires Bitencourt

Múltiplas partes do globo, possivelmente, passarão a ter dias e noites mais quentes e, com a elevação das temperaturas globais, há tendências de acréscimo do risco de eventos atmosféricos extremos, tais como as ondas de calor. O objetivo principal desse estudo foi verificar as características gerais das ondas de calor nas três capitais da região Sul do Brasil (Curitiba, Florianópolis e Porto Alegre) e também em Montevidéu, capital do Uruguai. Esta análise baseou-se nos parâmetros: frequência, intensidade, duração e suas respectivas tendências. As ondas de calor foram identificadas em uma série de 30 anos de dados diários de temperatura média do ar. As análises de tendência foram averiguadas por meio do teste de Mann-Kendall a um nível de significância de α = 5%. Os resultados mostraram que todos os parâmetros nas quatro cidades apresentam tendências estatisticamente significativas e, com exceção da duração em Montevidéu, todas as demais são positivas. Para além do âmbito das tendências, analisando os parâmetros, comparativamente, conclui-se que Porto Alegre apresenta maior destaque nas médias. Além disto, afirma-se que o inverno é a estação com maior frequência de ondas de calor para todas as cidades.  A B S T R A C TMultiple parts of the globe are likely to have warmer days and nights, and with rising global temperatures, there is a tendency to increase the risk of extreme weather events, such as heat waves. The main objective of this study was to verify the general characteristics of heat waves in the three capitals of southern Brazil (Curitiba, Florianópolis and Porto Alegre) and also in Montevideo, capital of Uruguay. This analysis was based on the parameters: frequency, intensity, duration and their respective trends. Heat waves were identified in a series of 30 years of daily average air temperature data. Trend analyzes were performed using the Mann-Kendall test at a significance level of α = 5%. The results showed that all the parameters in the four cities present statistically significant trends and, except for the duration in Montevideo, all the others are positive. In addition to the scope of the trends, analyzing the parameters, comparatively, it is concluded that Porto Alegre presents greater prominence in the averages. In addition, it is claimed that winter is the season with the highest frequency of heat waves for all cities.Keywords: heat wave, subtropical, capitals, trends, parameters.


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