Exploring the future hydrology of a Canadian Rockies glacierized catchment and its sensitivity to meteorological forcings

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Aubry-Wake ◽  
John W. Pomeroy
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Canadian Rockies ◽  
Process Representation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physically Based

<p>Glacierized mountain areas are witnessing strong changes in their streamflow generation processes, influencing their capacity to provide crucial water resources to downstream environments. Shifting precipitation patterns, a warming climate, changing snow dynamics and retreating glaciers are occurring simultaneously, driven by complex physical feedbacks. To predict and diagnose future hydrological behaviour in these glacierized catchments, a semi-distributed, physically-based hydrological model including both on and off-glacier process representation was applied to Peyto basin, a 21 km2 glacierized alpine catchment in the Canadian Rockies. The model was forced with bias-corrected outputs from a dynamically downscaled, 4-km resolution Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) simulation, for the 2000-2015 and 2085-2100 period.  The future WRF runs had boundary conditions perturbed using RCP8.5 late century climate.  The simulations show by the end-of-century, the catchment shifts from a glacial to a nival regime. The increase in precipitation nearly compensates for the decreased ice melt associated with glacier retreat, with a decrease in annual streamflow of only 7%. Peak flow shifts from July to June and August streamflow is reduced by 68%. Changes in blowing snow transport and sublimation, avalanching, evaporation and subsurface water storage also contribute to the strong hydrological shift in the Peyto catchment. A sensitivity analysis to uncertainty in forcing meteorology reveals that streamflow volume is more sensitive to variations in precipitation whereas streamflow timing and variability are more sensitive to variations in temperature. The combination of the temperature and precipitation variations caused substantial changes both in the future snowpack and in the streamflow pattern. By including high-resolution atmospheric modelling and unprecedented both on and off-glacier process-representation in a physically-based hydrological model, the results provide a particularly comprehensive evaluation of the hydrological changes occurring in high-mountain environments in response to climate change.</p>

Will the Pyrenees suffer less rainfall-triggered landslides in the future? Results of regional-scale stability modelling in the Val d’Aran focussing on land cover and rainfall predictions. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Hürlimann ◽  
Zizheng Guo ◽  
Càrol Puig-Polo ◽  
Vicente Medina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Stability Conditions ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Lulc Changes ◽  
Overall Stability ◽  
The Future ◽  
Root Strength

<p>The occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in high-mountain areas will be affected by future environmental changes. We analysed the influence of climate changes as well as land use and land cover (LULC) changes on shallow slope failures in the Val d’Aran region (Central Pyrenees) applying the simplified physically-based susceptibility model FSLAM. In this study, the event rainfall as well as the root strength were defined as the two input parameters that will be affected by the future changes.</p><p>On one side, the climate changes were analysed by the rainfall projections that are defined in the 26 regional climate models available at the moment in the EURO-CORDEX database using RCP 8.5 scenarios. Future precipitation return periods up to 2100 were calculated by a simplified peaks-over-threshold method based on storm events frequency analysis. Finally, daily rainfall scenarios for the entire study were estimated by weighting current rainfall extremes using a multiplier factor. On the other side, the LULC changes were calculated by the IDRISI TerrSet software suite. All the predictions were performed for three time periods (near, mid and far future).</p><p>The results of the climate change prediction showed that the daily rainfall will increase between 15 and 27 % assuming a return period of 100 years. In addition, the LULC predictions foresee a strong increase of the forest area, while in particular grassland, but also shrubs, decrease in area. Using the different rainfall and LULC predictions, multiples scenarios were defined and the corresponding susceptibility maps calculated. The stability calculations by the FSLAM model indicate that the overall stability conditions in the study area reduces when only the future rainfall prediction is considered. In contrast, the overall stability largely improves when only considering the LULC predictions (due to the increase of forest area and the corresponding higher root strength). However, the effect of LULC-changes is more important than the influence of rainfall-changes. Therefore, the overall stability conditions will improve in the future.</p><p>Many simplifications were incorporated in this susceptibility assessment and there are many uncertainties. Nonetheless, these results may help future studies to improve our knowledge on the impacts of future environmental changes on landslide occurrence in high-mountain areas.</p>

scholarly journals Hybrid Gravimetry to Map Water Storage Dynamics in a Mountain Catchment

2022 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Chaffaut ◽  
Nolwenn Lesparre ◽  
Frédéric Masson ◽  
Jacques Hinderer ◽  
Daniel Viville ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Topographic Wetness Index ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Spatio Temporal

In mountain areas, both the ecosystem and the local population highly depend on water availability. However, water storage dynamics in mountains is challenging to assess because it is highly variable both in time and space. This calls for innovative observation methods that can tackle such measurement challenge. Among them, gravimetry is particularly well-suited as it is directly sensitive–in the sense it does not require any petrophysical relationship–to temporal changes in water content occurring at surface or underground at an intermediate spatial scale (i.e., in a radius of 100 m). To provide constrains on water storage changes in a small headwater catchment (Strengbach catchment, France), we implemented a hybrid gravity approach combining in-situ precise continuous gravity monitoring using a superconducting gravimeter, with relative time-lapse gravity made with a portable Scintrex CG5 gravimeter over a network of 16 stations. This paper presents the resulting spatio-temporal changes in gravity and discusses them in terms of spatial heterogeneities of water storage. We interpret the spatio-temporal changes in gravity by means of: (i) a topography model which assumes spatially homogeneous water storage changes within the catchment, (ii) the topographic wetness index, and (iii) for the first time to our knowledge in a mountain context, by means of a physically based distributed hydrological model. This study therefore demonstrates the ability of hybrid gravimetry to assess the water storage dynamics in a mountain hydrosystem and shows that it provides observations not presumed by the applied physically based distributed hydrological model.

Physically Based Mountain Hydrological Modeling Using Reanalysis Data in Patagonia

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian A. Krogh ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
James McPhee
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Cold Region ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A physically based hydrological model for the upper Baker River basin (UBRB) in Patagonia was developed using the modular Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) in order to better understand the processes that drive the hydrological response of one of the largest rivers in this region. The model includes a full suite of blowing snow, intercepted snow, and energy balance snowmelt modules that can be used to describe the hydrology of this cold region. Within this watershed, snowfall, wind speed, and radiation are not measured; there are no high-elevation weather stations; and existing weather stations are sparsely distributed. The impact of atmospheric data from ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) on improving model performance by enhancing the representation of forcing variables was evaluated. CRHM parameters were assigned for local physiographic and vegetation characteristics based on satellite land cover classification, a digital elevation model, and parameter transfer from cold region environments in western Canada. It was found that observed precipitation has almost no predictive power [Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) < 0.3] when used to force the hydrologic model, whereas model performance using any of the reanalysis products—after bias correction—was acceptable with very little calibration (NS > 0.7). The modeled water balance shows that snowfall amounts to about 28% of the total precipitation and that 26% of total river flow stems from snowmelt. Evapotranspiration losses account for 7.2% of total precipitation, whereas sublimation and canopy interception losses represent about 1%. The soil component is the dominant modulator of runoff, with infiltration contributing as much as 73.7% to total basin outflow.

scholarly journals Incorporating Distributed Debris Thickness in a Glacio-Hydrological Model: Khumbu Himalaya, Nepal

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Douglas ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Darrel A. Swift ◽  
Julie M. Jones ◽  
Franco Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Initial Increase ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Mass Losses ◽  
Debris Cover ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Understanding the future evolution of Himalayan glaciers is important in terms of runoff that provides an essential water source to local populations and has far-reaching downstream impacts. However, the climatic response of glaciers in High-Mountain Asia is complicated by ice stagnation and considerable supraglacial debris coverage, which insulates the ice from warming. Typical runoff modelling only crudely incorporates debris cover and there is currently no consensus on how significantly this may impact future glacier and runoff evolution. Here, a glacio-hydrological model is modified to incorporate fully distributed debris cover, using melt reduction factors that vary depending on debris thickness, and to redistribute mass losses according to observed surface elevation changes. A range of debris thickness data are implemented, including a remote-sensing survey and a modelled debris surface, to analyse the sensitivity of glacier evolution and runoff to possible future debris-cover changes in a series of experiments in the upper Khumbu catchment, Nepal. Simulations are undertaken using climate input data from Regional Climate Model simulations from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) which are further statistically downscaled using data from the Pyramid meteorological station. Results suggest that the accurate calibration of the model to volume change compensates for the inclusion of distributed debris cover but only if the climatic sensitivity of the calibration period (1999–2010) and the nature of the debris-covered surface remain constant during future simulations. Altering the nature of the debris surface has a significant impact on simulated ice volume, with melt rates under debris suppressed by up to 85 %. The sensitivity of runoff ranges from 60 to 140 million m3 yr-1, although there are considerable uncertainties relating to non-glacial snow melt. Moreover, incorporating locally enhanced melt at ice cliffs into the model also impacts upon volume loss and discharge, with a greater proportion of ice cliffs leading to enhanced volume losses compared to a homogeneous debris surface. Finally, using the most representative model configuration, the future evolution of Khumbu Glacier under various climate scenarios shows continued mass losses with a reduction in volume ranging from 60 % to 97 % by 2100. Runoff trends show an initial increase followed by an eventual decrease, with runoff in 2100 predicted to be 8 % lower than current levels.

scholarly journals Blowing and drifting snow in Alpine terrain: numerical simulation and related field measurements

1998 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 174-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Gauer
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Related Field ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Transport

A physically based numerical model of drifting and blowing snow in three-dimensional terrain is developed. The model includes snow transport by saltation and suspension. As an example, a numerical simulation for an Alpine ridge is presented and compared with field measurements.

scholarly journals Sensitivity and Performance Analyses of the Distributed Hydrology–Soil–Vegetation Model Using Geomorphons for Landform Mapping

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2032
Author(s):  
Pâmela A. Melo ◽  
Lívia A. Alvarenga ◽  
Javier Tomasella ◽  
Carlos R. Mello ◽  
Minella A. Martins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Landform Classification ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Landform classification is important for representing soil physical properties varying continuously across the landscape and for understanding many hydrological processes in watersheds. Considering it, this study aims to use a geomorphology map (Geomorphons) as an input to a physically based hydrological model (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM)) in a mountainous headwater watershed. A sensitivity analysis of five soil parameters was evaluated for streamflow simulation in each Geomorphons feature. As infiltration and saturation excess overland flow are important mechanisms for streamflow generation in complex terrain watersheds, the model’s input soil parameters were most sensitive in the “slope”, “hollow”, and “valley” features. Thus, the simulated streamflow was compared with observed data for calibration and validation. The model performance was satisfactory and equivalent to previous simulations in the same watershed using pedological survey and moisture zone maps. Therefore, the results from this study indicate that a geomorphologically based map is applicable and representative for spatially distributing hydrological parameters in the DHSVM.

scholarly journals Formation Patterns of Mediterranean High-Mountain Water-Bodies in Sierra-Nevada, SE Spain

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 438
Author(s):  
Jose Luis Diaz-Hernandez ◽  
Antonio Jose Herrera-Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Glacial Processes ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Water Volumes

At present, there is a lack of detailed understanding on how the factors converging on water variables from mountain areas modify the quantity and quality of their watercourses, which are features determining these areas’ hydrological contribution to downstream regions. In order to remedy this situation to some extent, we studied the water-bodies of the western sector of the Sierra Nevada massif (Spain). Since thaw is a necessary but not sufficient contributor to the formation of these fragile water-bodies, we carried out field visits to identify their number, size and spatial distribution as well as their different modelling processes. The best-defined water-bodies were the result of glacial processes, such as overdeepening and moraine dams. These water-bodies are the highest in the massif (2918 m mean altitude), the largest and the deepest, making up 72% of the total. Another group is formed by hillside instability phenomena, which are very dynamic and are related to a variety of processes. The resulting water-bodies are irregular and located at lower altitudes (2842 m mean altitude), representing 25% of the total. The third group is the smallest (3%), with one subgroup formed by anthropic causes and another formed from unknown origin. It has recently been found that the Mediterranean and Atlantic watersheds of this massif are somewhat paradoxical in behaviour, since, despite its higher xericity, the Mediterranean watershed generally has higher water contents than the Atlantic. The overall cause of these discrepancies between watersheds is not connected to their formation processes. However, we found that the classification of water volumes by the manners of formation of their water-bodies is not coherent with the associated green fringes because of the anomalous behaviour of the water-bodies formed by moraine dams. This discrepancy is largely due to the passive role of the water retained in this type of water-body as it depends on the characteristics of its hollows. The water-bodies of Sierra Nevada close to the peak line (2918 m mean altitude) are therefore highly dependent on the glacial processes that created the hollows in which they are located. Slope instability created water-bodies mainly located at lower altitudes (2842 m mean altitude), representing tectonic weak zones or accumulation of debris, which are influenced by intense slope dynamics. These water-bodies are therefore more fragile, and their existence is probably more short-lived than that of bodies created under glacial conditions.

scholarly journals Trapping of Organochlorine Compounds in High Mountain Lakes

2001 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 609-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan O. Grimalt ◽  
Pilar Fernandez ◽  
Rosa M. Vilanova
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Mountain Lakes ◽  
Organochlorine Compounds ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
High Mountain Lakes ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Persistent Pollutants

High mountain areas have recently been observed to be polluted by organochlorine compounds (OC) despite their isolation. These persistent pollutants arrive at these remote regions through atmospheric transport. However, the mechanisms involving the accumulation of these compounds from the atmospheric pool to the lacustrine systems still need to be elucidated. These mechanisms must be related to the processes involving the transfer of these pollutant from low to high latitudes[1] as described in the global distillation effect[2].

scholarly journals Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3145-3156 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Velasco ◽  
P. A. Versini ◽  
A. Cabello ◽  
A. Barrera-Escoda
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Llobregat River

Abstract. Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur.

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