CRAMPON: a model- and observation-based near real-time platform for glacier mass balance monitoring in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Marian Landmann ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Hans Rudolf Künsch ◽  
Christophe Ogier ◽  
Lea Geibel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Filter ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Sequential Data ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
High Interest ◽  
The Past

<p>As glaciers shrink, high interest in their near real-time mass balance arises. This is mainly for two reasons: first, there are concerns about water availability and short-term water resource planning, and second, glaciers are one of the most prominent indicators of climate change, resulting in a high interest of the broader public.</p><p>To satisfy both interests regarding information on near real-time mass balance, we are running the project CRAMPON – “Cryospheric Monitoring and Prediction Online”. Within this project, we set up an operational assimilation platform where it is possible to query daily mass balance estimates in near real-time, i.e. updated with a lag of max. 24 hours. During the operational alpha phase, we increase the amount of modelled glaciers and assimilated observations steadily. We start with about 15 glaciers from the Glacier Monitoring Switzerland (GLAMOS) program, for which time series of seasonal mass balances from the glaciological method are available. After that, we expand our set of modelled glaciers to about 50 glaciers that have frequent geodetic mass balances in the past, and finally to all glaciers in Switzerland. The assimilated observations reach from the operational GLAMOS seasonal mass balance observations via daily point mass balances from nine in situ cameras providing instantaneous ablation rates to satellite-derived albedo and snow distribution on the glacier.<br>As basis for the platform, we run an ensemble of three temperature index and one simplified energy balance melt models. This ensemble takes gridded temperature, precipitation and radiation as input and aims at quantifying uncertainties of the produced daily mass balances. To determine uncertainties in the model prediction of a current mass budget year correctly, we run the models with parameter distributions we have fitted on individual parameter sets calibrated in the past. Since a purely model-based prediction can reveal high uncertainties though, we choose a sequential data assimilation approach in the form of a Particle Filter to constrain this uncertainty with observations, whenever available. We have customized the standard Particle Filter to (1) use a resampling method that is able to keep models in the ensemble despite a temporary bad performance, and (2) allow parameter and model probability evolution over time.</p><p>In this contribution, we focus on giving a holistic overview over the already existing platform features and discuss the future developments. We plan to make the calculated mass balances publicly available in summer 2021, and to extend this platform to the global scale at a later stage.</p>

scholarly journals Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 5017-5040
Author(s):  
Johannes Marian Landmann ◽  
Hans Rudolf Künsch ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Christophe Ogier ◽  
Markus Kalisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Particle Filter ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Point Mass ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mass Balances

Abstract. Short-term glacier variations can be important for water supplies or hydropower production, and glaciers are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near-real-time mass balance nowcasting is considerable. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of continuous observations of point mass balance based on online cameras transmitting images every 20 min. The cameras were installed on three Swiss glaciers during summer 2019, provided 352 near-real-time point mass balances in total, and revealed melt rates of up to 0.12 m water equivalent per day (mw.e.d-1) and of more than 5 mw.e. in 81 d. By means of a particle filter, these observations are assimilated into an ensemble of three TI (temperature index) and one simplified energy-balance mass balance models. State augmentation with model parameters is used to assign temporally varying weights to individual models. We analyze model performance over the observation period and find that the probability for a given model to be preferred by our procedure is 39 % for an enhanced TI model, 24 % for a simple TI model, 23 %, for a simplified energy balance model, and 14 % for a model employing both air temperature and potential solar irradiation. When compared to reference forecasts produced with both mean model parameters and parameters tuned on single mass balance observations, the particle filter performs about equally well on the daily scale but outperforms predictions of cumulative mass balance by 95 %–96 %. A leave-one-out cross-validation on the individual glaciers shows that the particle filter is also able to reproduce point observations at locations not used for model calibration. Indeed, the predicted mass balances is always within 9 % of the observations. A comparison with glacier-wide annual mass balances involving additional measurements distributed over the entire glacier mostly shows very good agreement, with deviations of 0.02, 0.07, and 0.24 mw.e.

scholarly journals Assimilating near real-time mass balance observations into a model ensemble using a particle filter

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes M. Landmann ◽  
Hans R. Künsch ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Christophe Ogier ◽  
Markus Kalisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Filter ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Point Mass ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Additional Energy ◽  
Mass Balance Models ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Glaciers fulfil important short-term functions like drinking water supply and they are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near real-time mass balance nowcasting is high. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of seven continuous observations of point mass balance based on on-line cameras transmitting images every 20 minutes on three Swiss glaciers during summer 2019. Like this, we read 352 near real-time daily point mass balances in total from the camera images, revealing melt rates of up to 0.12 meter water equivalent per day (m w.e. d−1) and the biggest total melt on the tongue of Findelgletscher with more than 5 m w.e. in 81 days. These observations are assimilated into an ensemble of three temperature index (TI) and one simplified energy balance mass balance models using an augmented particle filter with a custom resampling method. The state augmentation allows estimating model parameters over time. The custom resampling ensures that temporarily poorly performing models are kept in the ensemble instead of being removed during the resampling step of the particle filter. We analyse model performance over the observation period, and find that the model probability within the ensemble is highest on average with 58 % for an enhanced TI model, a simple TI model reaches about 19 %, while models incorporating additional energy fluxes have probabilities between 8 % and 15 %. When compared to reference forecasts produced with both mean model parameters and parameters tuned on single mass balance observations, the mass balances produced with the particle filter performs about equally well on the daily scale, but outperforms predictions of cumulative mass balance. The particle filter improves the performance scores of the reference forecasts by 91–97 % in these cases. A leave-one-out cross-validation on the individual glaciers shows that the particle filter is able to reproduce point observations at locations on the glacier where it was not calibrated, as the filtered mass balances do not deviate more than 8 % from the cumulative observations at the test locations. A comparison with glacier-wide annual mass balance by Glacier Monitoring Switzerland (GLAMOS) involving additional measurements distributed over the entire glacier, mostly show good agreement, but also deviations of up to 0.41 m w.e. for one instance.

scholarly journals Long-range terrestrial laser scanning measurements of annual and intra-annual mass balances for Urumqi Glacier No. 1, eastern Tien Shan, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2361-2383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhai Xu ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Huilin Li ◽  
Feiteng Wang ◽  
Ping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Mass Conversion ◽  
Geodetic Mass Balance

Abstract. The direct glaciological method provides in situ observations of annual or seasonal surface mass balance, but can only be implemented through a succession of intensive in situ measurements of field networks of stakes and snow pits. This has contributed to glacier surface mass-balance measurements being sparse and often discontinuous in the Tien Shan. Nevertheless, long-term glacier mass-balance measurements are the basis for understanding climate–glacier interactions and projecting future water availability for glacierized catchments in the Tien Shan. Riegl VZ®-6000 long-range terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), typically using class 3B laser beams, is exceptionally well suited for repeated glacier mapping, and thus determination of annual and seasonal geodetic mass balance. This paper introduces the applied TLS for monitoring summer and annual surface elevation and geodetic mass changes of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as well as delineating accurate glacier boundaries for 2 consecutive mass-balance years (2015–2017), and discusses the potential of such technology in glaciological applications. Three-dimensional changes of ice and firn–snow bodies and the corresponding densities were considered for the volume-to-mass conversion. The glacier showed pronounced thinning and mass loss for the four investigated periods; glacier-wide geodetic mass balance in the mass-balance year 2015–2016 was slightly more negative than in 2016–2017. Statistical comparison shows that agreement between the glaciological and geodetic mass balances can be considered satisfactory, indicating that the TLS system yields accurate results and has the potential to monitor remote and inaccessible glacier areas where no glaciological measurements are available as the vertical velocity component of the glacier is negligible. For wide applications of the TLS in glaciology, we should use stable scan positions and in-situ-measured densities of snow–firn to establish volume-to-mass conversion.

scholarly journals First in situ record of decadal glacier mass balance (2003–2014) from the Bhutan Himalaya

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (71) ◽  
pp. 289-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuntsho Tshering ◽  
Koji Fujita
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Eastern Himalaya ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Differential Gps ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
The Past ◽  
Southeastern Tibet

AbstractThis study presents the first decadal mass-balance record of a small debris-free glacier in the Bhutan Himalaya, where few in situ measurements have been reported to date. Since 2003 we have measured the mass balance of Gangju La glacier, which covers an area of 0.3km2 and extends from 4900 to 5200ma.s.l., using both differential GPS surveys (geodetic method) and stake measurements (direct method). The observed mass balance ranged from –1.12 to –2.04mw.e. a–1 between 2003 and 2014. The glacier exhibited much greater mass loss than neighbouring glaciers in the eastern Himalaya and southeastern Tibet, which are expected to be sensitive to climate change due to the monsooninfluenced humid climate. Observed mass-balance profiles suggest that the equilibrium-line altitude has been higher than Gangju La glacier since 2003, implying that the entire glacier has experienced net ablation for at least the past decade.

scholarly journals Comparison of direct and geodetic mass balances on a multi-annual time scale

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1151-1194
Author(s):  
A. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Direct Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Geodetic Mass Balance

Abstract. Glacier mass balance is measured with the direct or the geodetic method. In this study, the geodetic mass balances of six Austrian glaciers in 19 periods between 1953 and 2006 are compared to the direct mass balances in the same periods. The mean annual geodetic mass balance for all periods is −0.5 m w.e./year. The mean difference between the geodetic and the direct data is −0.7 m w.e., the minimum −7.3 m w.e. and the maximum 5.6 m w.e. The accuracy of geodetic mass balance resulting from the accuracy of the DEMs ranges from 2 m w.e. for photogrammetric data to 0.002 m w.e. for LIDAR data. Basal melt, seasonal snow cover and density changes of the surface layer contribute up to 0.7 m w.e. for the period of 10 years to the difference to the direct method. The characteristics of published data of Griesgletscher, Gulkana Glacier, Lemon Creek glacier, South Cascade, Storbreen, Storglaciären, and Zongo Glacier is similar to these Austrian glaciers. For 26 analyzed periods with an average length of 18 years the mean difference between the geodetic and the direct data is −0.4 m w.e., the minimum −7.2 m w.e. and the maximum 3.6 m w.e. Longer periods between the acquisition of the DEMs do not necessarily result in a higher accuracy of the geodetic mass balance. Specific glaciers show specific trends of the difference between the direct and the geodetic data according to their type and state. In conclusion, geodetic and direct mass balance data are complementary, but differ systematically.

scholarly journals The impact of Saharan dust and black carbon on albedo and long-term glacier mass balance

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1133-1175 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Gabbi ◽  
M. Huss ◽  
A. Bauder ◽  
F. Cao ◽  
M. Schwikowski
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Light-absorbing impurities in snow and ice control glacier melt as shortwave radiation represents the main component of the surface energy balance. Here, we investigate the long-term effect of snow impurities, i.e. Saharan dust and black carbon (BC), on albedo and glacier mass balance. The analysis was performed over the period 1914–2014 for two sites on Claridenfirn, Swiss Alps, where an outstanding 100 year record of seasonal mass balance measurements is available. Information on atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and BC over the last century was retrieved from two firn/ice cores of high-alpine sites. A combined mass balance and snow/firn layer model was employed to assess the dust/BC-albedo feedback. Compared to pure snow conditions, the presence of Saharan dust and BC lowered the mean annual albedo by 0.04–0.06 and increased melt by 15–19% on average depending on the location on the glacier. BC clearly dominated absorption which is about three times higher than that of mineral dust. The upper site has experienced mainly positive mass balances and impurity layers were continuously buried whereas at the lower site, surface albedo was more strongly influenced by re-exposure of dust-enriched layers due to frequent years with negative mass balances.

Potential Effect of Black Carbon on Glacier Mass Balance during the Past 55 Years of Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Western Qilian Mountains

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 410-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jizu Chen ◽  
Xiang Qin ◽  
Shichang Kang ◽  
Wentao Du ◽  
Weijun Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Meteorological controls on glacier mass balance: empirical relations suggested by measurements on glacier de Sarennes, France

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (143) ◽  
pp. 131-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Vincent ◽  
M. Vallon
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Empirical Relation ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Empirical Relations

AbstractGlacial mass-balance reconstruction for a long-term time-scale requires knowledge of the relation between climate change and mass-balance fluctuations. A large number of mass-balance reconstructions since the beginning of the century are based on statistical relations between monthly meteorological data and mass balance. The question examined in this paper is: are these relationships reliable enough for long-term time-scale extrapolation? From the glacier de Sarennes long mass-balance observations series, we were surprised to discover large discrepancies between relations resulting from different time periods. The importance of the albedo in relation to ablation and mass balance is highlighted, and it is shown that it is impossible to ignore glacier-surface conditions in establishing the empirical relation between mass-balance fluctuations and climatic variation; to omit this parameter leads to incorrect results for mass-balance reconstruction in the past based on meteorological data.

scholarly journals Changes in Eurasian glaciation during the past century: glacier mass balance and ice-core evidence

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 283-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir N. Mikhalenko
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Glacier Ice

Glaciers of both the Arctic and mid-latitude mountain systems within Eurasia have retreated intensively during the past century. Measured and reconstructed glacier mass balances show that glacier retreat began around the 1880s. The mean annual mass-balance value for 1880–1990 was −480 mm a−1 for glaciers with maritime climatic conditions, and −140 mm a−1 for continental glaciers. It can be concluded that warming in the Caucasus occurred during at least the last 60 years, according to the distribution of crystal sizes in an ice core from the Dzhantugan firn plateau. Temperatures measured in 1962 at 20 m on the Gregoriev ice cap, Tien Shan, were −4.2°C while in 1990 they were −2°C, a warming of 2.2°C over 28 years. Changes in the isotopic composition of glacier ice during the 20th century indicate recent and continuing warming in different regions of Eurasia. The δ18O records reveal an enrichment at the Gregoriev ice cap during the last 50 years, while surface temperatures at the Tien Shan meteorological station have increased 0.5°C since 1930.

scholarly journals Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 283-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Wendell V. Tangborn ◽  
Craig S. Lingle
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
South Central

AbstractThe response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma–1w.e., compared to –1.3ma–1w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma–1w.e. compared to 0.4 ma–1w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km3 a–1, which is assumed to remain constant.

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