scholarly journals Comparison of land–surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. H. Dunn ◽  
Kate M. Willett ◽  
Andrew Ciavarella ◽  
Peter A. Stott
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Global Average ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We compare the latest observational land-surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, at decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea-surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed and historical model climatologies show that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends are relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the Tropics, and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitudes. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T–q and T–rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T–q correlation from the models is more steeply positive in all regions than the observations, and this over-correlation may be due to missing processes in the models. The observed temporal behaviour appears to be a robust climate feature rather than observational error. It has been previously documented and is theoretically consistent with faster warming rates over land compared to oceans. Thus, the poor replication in the models, especially in the atmosphere only model, leads to questions over future projections of impacts related to changes in surface relative humidity. It also precludes any formal detection and attribution assessment.

scholarly journals Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 719-747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. H. Dunn ◽  
Kate M. Willett ◽  
Andrew Ciavarella ◽  
Peter A. Stott
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Global Average ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We compare the latest observational land surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, on decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed climatologies with those from historical model runs shows that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra-tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends is relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the tropics and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitude in the CMIP5 models. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T–q and T–rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T–q correlation from the models is more steeply positive than the observations in all regions, and this over-correlation may be due to missing processes in the models. The observed temporal behaviour appears to be a robust climate feature rather than observational error. It has been previously documented and is theoretically consistent with faster warming rates over land compared to oceans. Thus, the poor replication in the models, especially in the atmosphere-only model, leads to questions over future projections of impacts related to changes in surface relative humidity. It also precludes any formal detection and attribution assessment.

scholarly journals Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (19) ◽  
pp. 4863-4868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Byrne ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Static Energy

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land–ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Robustness of Dynamical Feedbacks from Radiative Forcing: 2% Solar versus 2 × CO2 Experiments in an Idealized GCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 2256-2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Cai ◽  
Ka-Kit Tung
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Heating Profile

Abstract Despite the differences in the spatial patterns of the external forcing associated with a doubling CO2 and with a 2% solar variability, the final responses in the troposphere and at the surface in a three-dimensional general circulation model appear remarkably similar. Various feedback processes are diagnosed and compared using the climate feedback–response analysis method (CFRAM) to understand the mechanisms responsible. At the surface, solar radiative forcing is stronger in the tropics than at the high latitudes, whereas greenhouse radiative forcing is stronger at high latitudes compared with the tropics. Also solar forcing is positive everywhere in the troposphere and greenhouse radiative forcing is positive mainly in the lower troposphere. The water vapor feedback strengthens the upward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the tropics and the poleward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the lower troposphere. The “evaporative” and convective feedbacks play an important role only in the tropics where they act to reduce the warming at the surface and lower troposphere in favor of upper-troposphere warming. Both water vapor feedback and enhancement of convection in the tropics further strengthen the initial poleward-decreasing profile of energy flux convergence perturbations throughout the troposphere. As a result, the large-scale dynamical poleward energy transport, which acts on the negative temperature gradient, is enhanced in both cases, contributing to a polar amplification of warming aloft and a warming reduction in the tropics. The dynamical amplification of polar atmospheric warming also contributes additional warming to the surface below via downward thermal radiation.

scholarly journals Evapotranspiration Partitioning in CMIP5 Models: Uncertainties and Future Projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 2653-2671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Berg ◽  
Justin Sheffield
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Stomatal Closure ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Soil Evaporation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key process affecting terrestrial hydroclimate, as it modulates the land surface carbon, energy, and water budgets. Evapotranspiration mainly consists of the sum of three components: plant transpiration, soil evaporation, and canopy interception. Here we investigate how the partitioning of ET into these three main components is represented in CMIP5 model simulations of present and future climate. A large spread exists between models in the simulated mean present-day partitioning; even the ranking of the different components in the global mean differs between models. Differences in the simulation of the vegetation leaf area index appear to be an important cause of this spread. Although ET partitioning is not accurately known globally, existing global estimates suggest that CMIP5 models generally underestimate the relative contribution of transpiration. Differences in ET partitioning lead to differences in climate characteristics over land, such as land–atmosphere fluxes and near-surface air temperature. On the other hand, CMIP5 models simulate robust patterns of future changes in ET partitioning under global warming, notably a marked contrast between decreased transpiration and increased soil evaporation in the tropics, whereas transpiration and evaporation both increase at higher latitudes and both decrease in the dry subtropics. Idealized CMIP5 simulations from a subset of models show that the decrease in transpiration in the tropics largely reflects the stomatal closure effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plants (despite increased vegetation from CO2 fertilization), whereas changes at higher latitudes are dominated by radiative CO2 effects, with warming and increased precipitation leading to vegetation increase and simultaneous (absolute) increases in all three ET components.

scholarly journals Cloud radiative forcing intercomparison between fully coupled CMIP5 models and CERES satellite data

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 793-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Calisto ◽  
D. Folini ◽  
M. Wild ◽  
L. Bengtsson
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. In this paper, radiative fluxes for 10 years from 11 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and from CERES satellite observations have been analyzed and compared. Under present-day conditions, the majority of the investigated CMIP5 models show a tendency towards a too-negative global mean net cloud radiative forcing (NetCRF) as compared to CERES. A separate inspection of the long-wave and shortwave contribution (LWCRF and SWCRF) as well as cloud cover points to different shortcomings in different models. Models with a similar NetCRF still differ in their SWCRF and LWCRF and/or cloud cover. Zonal means mostly show excessive SWCRF (too much cooling) in the tropics between 20° S and 20° N and in the midlatitudes between 40 to 60° S. Most of the models show a too-small/too-weak LWCRF (too little warming) in the subtropics (20 to 40° S and N). Difference maps between CERES and the models identify the tropical Pacific Ocean as an area of major discrepancies in both SWCRF and LWCRF. The summer hemisphere is found to pose a bigger challenge for the SWCRF than the winter hemisphere. The results suggest error compensation to occur between LWCRF and SWCRF, but also when taking zonal and/or annual means. Uncertainties in the cloud radiative forcing are thus still present in current models used in CMIP5.

scholarly journals Understanding Decreases in Land Relative Humidity with Global Warming: Conceptual Model and GCM Simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9045-9061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Byrne ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Stomatal Closure ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Box Model ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract Climate models simulate a strong land–ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming; relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving atmospheric moisture transport between the land and ocean and surface evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to simulations with idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation models, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land humidity. The simplest version of the box model gives equal fractional increases in specific humidity over land and ocean. This relationship implies a decrease in land relative humidity given the greater warming over land than ocean and modest changes in ocean relative humidity, consistent with a mechanism proposed previously. When evapotranspiration is included, it is found to be of secondary importance compared to ocean moisture transport for the increase in land specific humidity, but it plays an important role for the decrease in land relative humidity. For the case of a moisture forcing over land, such as from stomatal closure, the response of land relative humidity is strongly amplified by the induced change in land surface–air temperature, and this amplification is quantified using a theory for the link between land and ocean temperatures.

scholarly journals HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1983-2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Willett ◽  
R. J. H. Dunn ◽  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
S. Bell ◽  
M. de Podesta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature in situ observations-only climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a tool for the long-term monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. It is also useful for climate model evaluation and reanalyses validation. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates and with theoretical understanding. The data set is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and the Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land–sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.

scholarly journals HadISDH: an updateable land surface specific humidity product for climate monitoring

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 657-677 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Willett ◽  
C. N. Williams ◽  
R. J. H. Dunn ◽  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
S. Bell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Automated Quality Control ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. HadISDH is a near-global land surface specific humidity monitoring product providing monthly means from 1973 onwards over large-scale grids. Presented herein to 2012, annual updates are anticipated. HadISDH is an update to the land component of HadCRUH, utilising the global high-resolution land surface station product HadISD as a basis. HadISD, in turn, uses an updated version of NOAA's Integrated Surface Database. Intensive automated quality control has been undertaken at the individual observation level, as part of HadISD processing. The data have been subsequently run through the pairwise homogenisation algorithm developed for NCDC's US Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature product. For the first time, uncertainty estimates are provided at the grid-box spatial scale and monthly timescale. HadISDH is in good agreement with existing land surface humidity products in periods of overlap, and with both land air and sea surface temperature estimates. Widespread moistening is shown over the 1973–2012 period. The largest moistening signals are over the tropics with drying over the subtropics, supporting other evidence of an intensified hydrological cycle over recent years. Moistening is detectable with high (95%) confidence over large-scale averages for the globe, Northern Hemisphere and tropics, with trends of 0.089 (0.080 to 0.098) g kg−1 per decade, 0.086 (0.075 to 0.097) g kg−1 per decade and 0.133 (0.119 to 0.148) g kg−1 per decade, respectively. These changes are outside the uncertainty range for the large-scale average which is dominated by the spatial coverage component; station and grid-box sampling uncertainty is essentially negligible on large scales. A very small moistening (0.013 (−0.005 to 0.031) g kg−1 per decade) is found in the Southern Hemisphere, but it is not significantly different from zero and uncertainty is large. When globally averaged, 1998 is the moistest year since monitoring began in 1973, closely followed by 2010, two strong El Niño years. The period in between is relatively flat, concurring with previous findings of decreasing relative humidity over land.

scholarly journals Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Feedbacks in a Constant Relative Humidity Atmosphere

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (8) ◽  
pp. 2538-2550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Rieck ◽  
Louise Nuijens ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Positive Temperature

Abstract The mechanisms that govern the response of shallow cumulus, such as found in the trade wind regions, to a warming of the atmosphere in which large-scale atmospheric processes act to keep relative humidity constant are explored. Two robust effects are identified. First, and as is well known, the liquid water lapse rate increases with temperature and tends to increase the amount of water in clouds, making clouds more reflective of solar radiation. Second, and less well appreciated, the surface fluxes increase with the saturation specific humidity, which itself is a strong function of temperature. Using large-eddy simulations it is shown that the liquid water lapse rate acts as a negative feedback: a positive temperature increase driven by radiative forcing is reduced by the increase in cloud water and hence cloud albedo. However, this effect is more than compensated by a reduction of cloudiness associated with the deepening and relative drying of the boundary layer, driven by larger surface moisture fluxes. Because they are so robust, these effects are thought to underlie changes in the structure of the marine boundary layer as a result of global warming.

scholarly journals HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 2717-2766
Author(s):  
K. M. Willett ◽  
R. J. H. Dunn ◽  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
S. Bell ◽  
M. de Podesta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly-mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a unique tool for the monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates where they are available, and with theoretical understanding. The dataset is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land–sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.

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