scholarly journals Topology of sustainable management of dynamical systems with desirable states: from defining planetary boundaries to safe operating spaces in the Earth system

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Heitzig ◽  
T. Kittel ◽  
J. F. Donges ◽  
N. Molkenthin
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Classical Mechanics ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The State ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The Earth

Abstract. To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as defined by the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "guardrails", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space for humanity", one needs to understand not only the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management) but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are, which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region, which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that, before performing some form of quantitative optimization such as of indicators of human well-being for achieving certain sustainable development goals, a sustainable and resilient management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmas, e.g. choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and larger flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmas drawing on conceptual models from climate science, ecology, coevolutionary Earth system modelling, economics, and classical mechanics, and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate, in particular suggesting several levels of planetary boundaries of qualitatively increasing safety.

scholarly journals Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 435-488
Author(s):  
J. Heitzig ◽  
T. Kittel
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Classical Mechanics ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The State ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Operating Space

Abstract. To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space", one not only needs to understand the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management), but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are: which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region? Which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that before performing some form of quantitative optimization, the sustainable management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmata, e.g., choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and increasing flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmata with conceptual models from classical mechanics, climate science, ecology, economics, and coevolutionary Earth system modelling and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate.

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

scholarly journals Earth history and evolution of life in curriculum the high school of the State of São Paulo

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-303
Author(s):  
Cristiane Prado Scott dos Santos ◽  
Joseli Maria Piranha
Keyword(s):  
National Curriculum ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
School Curriculum ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Content Organization ◽  
Life Itself

Among the main obstacles to the literacy of the Earth System Sciences, the content organization in official curricula stands out. The knowledge of this science has been shown as fundamental for the formation of citizens who know how to use natural resources regarding environmental questions and life itself. Faced with such issues, the present study has done a documentary analysis of the Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais para o Ensino Médio (PCNEM in Portuguese, or National Curriculum Parameters of Secondary Education) and of the Currículo do Estado de São Paulo (CESP in Portuguese, or School Curriculum of the State of São Paulo), with aim at suggesting effective teaching alternatives for citizens formation. Both the PCNEM and the CESP present contents in a fragmented way through traditional disciplines, such as has been the educational structure in Brazil for decades. The PCNEM suggest an interdisciplinary approach of these contents, while the CESP do not mention this type of approach, but relates skills to be developed to each type of content, and so presents interdisciplinary teaching as valuable. As an alternative to this pedagogical structure, it is proposed that the contents encompassed in the Earth System Science should be treated in an interdisciplinary context, allowing the integrated development of contents and contributing to the teacher’s work.

The Frontiers of Deep Learning for Earth System Modelling 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Hall
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Neural Nets ◽  
Generative Adversarial Networks ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Adversarial Networks ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Earth System Modelling

<p>This talk gives an overview of cutting-edge artificial intelligence applications and techniques for the earth-system sciences. We survey the most important recent contributions in areas including extreme weather, physics emulation, nowcasting, medium-range forecasting, uncertainty quantification, bias-correction, generative adversarial networks, data in-painting, network-HPC coupling, physics-informed neural nets, and geoengineering, amongst others. Then, we describe recent AI breakthroughs that have the potential to be of greatest benefit to the geosciences. We also discuss major open challenges in AI for science and their potential solutions. This talk is a living document, in that it is updated frequently, in order to accurately relect this rapidly changing field.</p>

scholarly journals Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Lade ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Ingo Fetzer ◽  
John M. Anderies ◽  
Christian Beer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Model Test ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System’s response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we construct a stylized global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against complex ESMs, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon-cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. We use our results to analytically study the relative strengths of different climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and how they may change in the future, as well as to compare different feedback formalisms. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the Planetary Boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in complex ESMs.

scholarly journals Identifying Crucial Issues in Climate Science: Drastic Change in the Earth System During Global Warming; Sapporo, Japan, 24 June 2008

Eos ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Motoyoshi Ikeda ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Toshika Hara ◽  
Yutaka W. Watanabe ◽  
Atsumu Ohmura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Drastic Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth

scholarly journals Coupling technologies for Earth System Modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1987-2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Valcke ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
A. Craig ◽  
C. DeLuca ◽  
R. Dunlap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Modelling ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Common Features ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Computing Platforms ◽  
Design Characteristics ◽  
Earth System Modelling

Abstract. This paper presents a review of the software currently used in climate modelling in general and in CMIP5 in particular to couple the numerical codes representing the different components of the Earth system. The coupling technologies presented show common features, such as the ability to communicate and regrid data, but also offer different functions and implementations. Design characteristics of the different approaches are discussed as well as future challenges arising from the increasing complexity of scientific problems and computing platforms.

scholarly journals Earth System Economics: a bio-physical approach to the human component of the Earth System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Time Allocation ◽  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Simple Relationship ◽  
Earth System ◽  
State Variables ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Suitable Framework

Abstract. The study of humans has largely been carried out in isolation from the study of the non-human Earth system. This isolation has encouraged the development of incompatible philosphical, aspirational, and methodological approaches that have proven very difficult to integrate with those used for the non-human remainder of the Earth system. Here, an approach is laid out for the scientific study of humans that is intended to facilitate integration with non-human processes by striving for a consistent physical basis, for which the name Earth System Economics is proposed. The approach is typified by a foundation on bio-physical state variables, quantification of time allocation amongst available activities at the population level, and an orientation towards measuring human experience. A suitable framework is elaborated, which parses the Earth system into four classes of state variables, including a neural class that would underpin many societal features. A working example of the framework is then illustrated with a simple numerical model, considering a global population that is engaged in one of two waking activities: provisioning food, or doing something else. The two activities are differentiated by their motivational factors, outcomes on state variables, and associated subjective experience. Although the illustrative model is a gross simplification of reality, the results suggest a simple relationship to predict first order changes in the human population size, and how neural characteristics and subjective experience can robustly emerge from model dynamics, including transient golden ages. The approach is intended to provide a flexible and widely-applicable strategy for understanding the human-Earth system, appropriate for physically-based assessments of the past and present, as well as long-term model projections that are oriented towards improving human well-being.

scholarly journals Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of the Earth system

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 671-687
Author(s):  
Eric D. Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Earth System ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Neural Structure ◽  
Seamless Integration ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Biophysical Approach

Abstract. The study of humans has largely been carried out in isolation from the study of the non-human Earth system. This isolation has encouraged the development of incompatible philosophical, aspirational, and methodological approaches that have proven very difficult to integrate with those used for the non-human remainder of the Earth system. Here, an approach is laid out for the scientific study of the global human system that is intended to facilitate seamless integration with non-human processes by striving for a consistent physical basis, for which the name Earth system economics is proposed. The approach is typified by a foundation on state variables, central among which is the allocation of time amongst activities by human populations, and an orientation towards considering human experience. A framework is elaborated which parses the Earth system into six classes of state variables, including a neural structure class that underpins many essential features of humanity. A working example of the framework is then illustrated with a simple numerical model, considering a global population that is engaged in one of two waking activities: provisioning food or doing something else. The two activities are differentiated by their motivational factors, outcomes on state variables, and associated subjective experience. While the illustrative model is a gross simplification of reality, the results suggest how neural characteristics and subjective experience can emerge from model dynamics. The approach is intended to provide a flexible and widely applicable strategy for understanding the human–Earth system, appropriate for physically based assessments of the past and present, as well as contributing to long-term model projections that are naturally oriented towards improving human well-being.

Butterflies, Elephants and Gravity to Model Human-Earth Interactions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurits Ertsen
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Human Dimensions ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Scale Down ◽  
Butterfly Effect ◽  
To Come ◽  
Small Change

<p>The call for this session mentions that “Earth system resilience critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes. These include dynamics in [many physical events], as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities.“ In this contribution, I would like to mobilize a few notions to discuss this issue.</p><p>A typical approach is to scale up human dimensions to Earth system model scales. Humans become aggregated into social structures, even societies, that change every year or so. I propose to scale down the Earth system to humans, both in terms of space and time. I think this offers exiting possibilities to study climate and earth systems in a different way, but also allows for answering the question how we could act today, tomorrow and next week in order to understand which long-term scenarios over decades are more likely to occur.</p><p>This would move us away from the view of the Earth as a single system or pattern to a perspective of Earth as an interconnected world of different non-human and human agencies. I would position this idea against the rather popular metaphor of the butterfly effect, “the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state”. This may be too simple, as one butterfly will meet many other butterflies along the way. As such, the butterfly effect may be a specific example that claims a certain agency for smaller actors within the Earth System, but that builds its analysis on pattern replication through non-linear relations.</p><p>Our (perceived) knowledge of patterns colors our analysis of those patterns. We are all familiar with the metaphor of the men observing different parts of the elephant. The metaphor assumes that we know that what the men are examining is an elephant. However, once we do not know either what they are looking at, we need to start with them seeing different things. In the perspective that we know the elephant, the men are just short-sighted. In the more realistic setting that we cannot be certain about what the men observe, we are the ones that need to come up with a convincing way to analyze what is happening, has happened or may happen.</p><p>Much work in Earth system modelling model patterns in society, but do not explain how these patterns are the result of continuously performing agencies. The models are built to mimic the patterns that we observed. I propose to replace the patterns we use to explain the same patterns – whether they are power relations or gravity – with representations of the interacting agencies that together produce the Earth system that we think we observe. Gravity may be a nice explanation of the observed pattern that we do not glide away from the surface, but it remains just that. In our modelling efforts, we may apply the notion that gravity acts.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document