scholarly journals Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records?

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tine Nilsen ◽  
Kristoffer Rypdal ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Null Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Glacial Time ◽  
Scale Break

Abstract. The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a monoscaling model with one single scaling regime can be rejected from observation data from the Holocene. A model for internal variability with only one regime is simpler and allows more certain predictions on timescales of centuries when combined with existing knowledge of radiative forcing. Our analysis of spectra from stable isotope ratios from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores shows that a scale break around centennial timescales is evident for the last glacial period, but not for the Holocene. Spectra from a number of late Holocene multiproxy temperature reconstructions, and one from the entire Holocene, have also been analysed, without identifying a significant scale break. Our results indicate that a single-regime scaling climate noise, with some non-scaling fluctuations on a millennial timescale superposed, cannot be rejected as a null model for the Holocene climate. The scale break observed from the glacial time ice-core records is likely caused by the influence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events and teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere on centennial timescales. From our analysis we conclude that the two-regime model is not sufficiently justified for the Holocene to be used for temperature prediction on centennial timescales.

scholarly journals Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records?

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1201-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Nilsen ◽  
K. Rypdal ◽  
H.-B. Fredriksen
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Null Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Scaling Model ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Glacial Time ◽  
Temperature Time ◽  
Scale Break

Abstract. The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a mono-scaling model can be rejected from the data at hand. A model with only one regime is simpler and is preferred if this explains the observed variability. Our analysis of spectra from reconstructed air temperature from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores shows that a scale break around centennial time scales is evident for the last glacial period, but not for the Holocene. Nor by analysing a number of late Holocene multiproxy temperature reconstructions can a significant scale break be identified. Our results indicate that a mono-scaling model cannot be rejected as a null model for the Holocene climate up to at least millennial time scales, although it can be rejected for the glacial climate state. The scale break observed from the glacial time ice core records is likely caused by the influence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events and teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere on centennial time scales. From our analysis we conclude that the two-regime model is not sufficiently justified for the Holocene to be used for temperature prediction on centennial time scales.

scholarly journals Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (22) ◽  
pp. eabc1379
Author(s):  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Jed O. Kaplan ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Yang Li ◽  
Nathan J. Chellman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Fire Activity

Fire plays a pivotal role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and the chemical composition of the atmosphere and thus influences Earth’s climate. The trend and magnitude of fire activity over the past few centuries are controversial, which hinders understanding of preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative forcing. Here, we present evidence from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core, suggesting that historical fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) exceeded present-day levels. To understand this observation, we use a global fire model to show that overall SH fire emissions could have declined by 30% over the 20th century, possibly because of the rapid expansion of land use for agriculture and animal production in middle to high latitudes. Radiative forcing calculations suggest that the decreasing trend in SH fire emissions over the past century largely compensates for the cooling effect of increasing aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources.

Do Greenland Ice Cores Reflect NW European Interglacial Climate Variations?

1995 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiliv Larsen ◽  
Hans Petter Sejrup ◽  
Sigfus J. Johnsen ◽  
Karen Luise Knudsen
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Norwegian Sea ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Climatic Evolution

AbstractThe climatic evolution during the Eemian and the Holocene in western Europe is compared with the sea-surface conditions in the Norwegian Sea and with the oxygen-isotope-derived paleotemperature signal in the GRIP and Renland ice cores from Greenland. The records show a warm phase (ca. 3000 yr long) early in the Eemian (substage 5e). This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet, in general, recorded the climate in the region during this time. Rapid fluctuations during late stage 6 and late substage 5e in the GRIP ice core apparently are not recorded in the climatic proxies from western Europe and the Norwegian Sea. This may be due to low resolution in the terrestrial and marine records and/or long response time of the biotic changes. The early Holocene climatic optimum recorded in the terrestrial and marine records in the Norwegian Sea-NW European region is not found in the Summit (GRIP and GISP2) ice cores. However, this warm phase is recorded in the Renland ice core. Due to the proximity of Renland to the Norwegian Sea, this area is probably more influenced by changes in polar front positions which may partly explain this discrepancy. A reduction in the elevation at Summit during the Holocene may, however, be just as important. The high-amplitude shifts during substage 5e in the GRIP core could be due to Atlantic water oscillating closer to, and also reaching, the coast of East Greenland. During the Holocene, Atlantic water was generally located farther east in the Norwegian Sea than during the Eemian.

scholarly journals Synchronizing the Greenland ice core and radiocarbon timescales over the Holocene – Bayesian wiggle-matching of cosmogenic radionuclide records

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Adolphi ◽  
R. Muscheler
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Counting Error ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Uncertainty Measurement ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Cosmogenic Radionuclide

Abstract. Investigations of past climate dynamics rely on accurate and precise chronologies of the employed climate reconstructions. The radiocarbon dating calibration curve (IntCal13) and the Greenland ice core chronology (GICC05) represent two of the most widely used chronological frameworks in paleoclimatology of the past  ∼  50 000 years. However, comparisons of climate records anchored on these chronologies are hampered by the precision and accuracy of both timescales. Here we use common variations in the production rates of 14C and 10Be recorded in tree-rings and ice cores, respectively, to assess the differences between both timescales during the Holocene. Compared to earlier work, we employ a novel statistical approach which leads to strongly reduced and yet, more robust, uncertainty estimates. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inferred timescale differences are robust independent of (i) the applied ice core 10Be records, (ii) assumptions of the mode of 10Be deposition, as well as (iii) carbon cycle effects on 14C, and (iv) in agreement with independent estimates of the timescale differences. Our results imply that the GICC05 counting error is likely underestimated during the most recent 2000 years leading to a dating bias that propagates throughout large parts of the Holocene. Nevertheless, our analysis indicates that the GICC05 counting error is generally a robust uncertainty measurement but care has to be taken when treating it as a nearly Gaussian error distribution. The proposed IntCal13-GICC05 transfer function facilitates the comparison of ice core and radiocarbon dated paleoclimate records at high chronological precision.

scholarly journals Brief communication: New evidence further constraining Tibetan ice core chronologies to the Holocene

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 2109-2114
Author(s):  
Shugui Hou ◽  
Wangbin Zhang ◽  
Ling Fang ◽  
Theo M. Jenk ◽  
Shuangye Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Time Range ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Guliya Ice Core ◽  
Considerable Controversy ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract. There is considerable controversy regarding the age ranges of Tibetan ice cores. The Guliya ice core was reported to reach as far back as ∼760 ka (kiloannum, i.e. 1000 years), whereas chronologies of all other Tibetan cores cover at most the Holocene. Here we present ages for two new ice cores reaching bedrock, from the Zangser Kangri (ZK) glacier in the northwestern Tibetan Plateau and the Shulenanshan (SLNS) glacier in the western Qilian Mountains. We estimated bottom ages of 8.90±0.570.56 ka and 7.46±1.461.79 ka for the ZK and SLNS ice core respectively, further constraining the time range accessible by Tibetan ice cores to the Holocene.

scholarly journals Characterization and formation of melt layers in polar snow: observations and experiments from West Antarctica

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (173) ◽  
pp. 307-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah B. Das ◽  
Richard B. Alley
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiments ◽  
Preferential Flow ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Ice Core Record ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Polar Snow

AbstractSurface melting rarely occurs across most of the Antarctic ice sheet, away from the warmer coastal regions. Nonetheless, isolated melt features are preserved in the firn and ice in response to infrequent and short-lived melting events. An understanding of the formation and occurrence of these melt layers will help us to interpret records of past melt occurrences from polar ice cores such as the Siple Dome ice-core record from West Antarctica. A search in the near-surface firn in West Antarctica found that melt features are extremely rare, and consist of horizontal, laterally continuous, one to a few millimeter thick, ice layers with few air bubbles. The melt layers found date from the 1992/93 and 1991/92 summers. Field experiments to investigate changes in stratigraphy taking place during melt events reproduced melt features as seen in the natural stratigraphy. Melting conditions of varying intensity were created by passively heating the near-surface air for varying lengths of time inside a clear plastic hotbox. Melt layers formed due entirely to preferential flow and subsequent refreezing of meltwater from the surface into near-surface, fine-grained, crust layers. Continuous melt layers were formed experimentally when positive-degree-day values exceeded 1ºC-day, a value corresponding well with air-temperature records from automatic weather station sites where melt layers formed in the recent past.

scholarly journals Some comments on climatic reconstructions from ice cores drilled in areas of high melt

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (143) ◽  
pp. 90-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy M. Koerner
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Devon Ice Cap ◽  
Seasonal Signals ◽  
Cross Correlations

AbstractPoor consideration has been given in many Arctic circum-polar ice-core studies to the effect of summer snow melt on chemistry, stable-isotope concentrations and time-scales. Many of these corps are drilled close to the firn line where melt is intense. Some come from below the firn line where accumulation is solely in the form of super-imposed ice. In all cases, seasonal signals are reduced or removed and, in some, time gaps develop during periods of excessive melting which situate the drill site in the ablation zone. Consequently, cross correlations of assumed synchronous events among the cores are invalid, so that time-scales along the same cores differ between authors by factors of over 2. Many so-called climatic signals are imaginary rather than real. By reference to published analyses of cores from the superimposed ice zone on Devon Ice Cap (Koerner, 1970) and Meighen Ice Cap (Koerner and Paterson, 1974), it is shown how melt affects all the normally well-established ice-core proxies and leads to their misinterpretation. Despite these limitations, the cores can give valuable low-resolution records for all or part of the Holocene. They show that the thermal maximum in the circum-polar Arctic occurred in the early Holocene. This maximum, effected negative balances on all the ice caps and removed the smaller ones. Cooler conditions in the second half of the Holocene have caused the regrowth of these same ice caps.

scholarly journals High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2789-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Schüpbach ◽  
U. Federer ◽  
P. R. Kaufmann ◽  
S. Albani ◽  
C. Barbante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ross Sea ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

scholarly journals Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Marshall ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Ken S. Carslaw ◽  
Graham W. Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Sulfate Deposition ◽  
Ice Core Records

Abstract. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 Year Without a Summer and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), four state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. Background sulfate deposition is of similar magnitude across all models and compares well to ice core records. However, volcanic sulfate deposition varies in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude between the models. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km−2, and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km−2, as compared to the mean ice core-derived estimates of roughly 40–50 kg km−2, for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results highlight the uncertainties and difficulties in deriving historic volcanic aerosol radiative forcing of climate, based on measured volcanic sulfate in polar ice cores.

scholarly journals A first chronology for the East GReenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and last glacial termination

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi ◽  
Frank Wilhelms ◽  
Eliza Cook ◽  
Siwan Davies ◽  
Giulia Sinnl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
East Greenland ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Annual Layer ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Core Project

Abstract. This paper provides the first chronology for the deep ice core from the East GReenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and late last glacial period. We rely mainly on volcanic events and common patterns of peaks in dielectric profiling (DEP), electrical conductivity measurements (ECM) and tephra records for the synchronization between the EGRIP, NEEM and NGRIP ice cores in Greenland. We transfer the annual-layer-counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) timescale from the NGRIP core to the EGRIP ice core by means of 373 match points. The NEEM ice core is only used for supporting match-point identification. We name our EGRIP time scale GICC05-EGRIP-1. Over the uppermost 1383.84 m, we establish a depth–age relationship dating back to 14,965 a b2k (years before the year 2000 CE). Tephra horizons provide an independent validation of our match points. In addition, we compare the ratio of annual layer thicknesses between ice cores in-between the match points to assess our results in view of the different ice-flow patterns and accumulation regimes of the different periods and geographical regions. This initial timescale is the basis of interpretation and refinement of the presently derived EGRIP high-resolution data sets of chemical impurities.

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