Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean
responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the
satellite era

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980–2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

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Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

10.5194/esd-2015-92 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. Gonsamo ◽

J. M. Chen ◽

D. T. Shindell ◽

G. P. Asner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Spring Phenology ◽

Anthropogenic Forcing ◽

Recent Climate

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using three decades (1980−2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology and thaw, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of ENSO, North American Pattern and East Atlantic Pattern, whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

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Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0386.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (3) ◽

pp. 949-965

Author(s):

Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth ◽

Lettie A. Roach ◽

Aaron Donohoe ◽

Qinghua Ding

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Earth System ◽

Anthropogenic Forcing ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Long Term Trends

AbstractAntarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has slightly increased over the satellite observational period (1979 to the present) despite global warming. Several mechanisms have been invoked to explain this trend, such as changes in winds, precipitation, or ocean stratification, yet there is no widespread consensus. Additionally, fully coupled Earth system models run under historic and anthropogenic forcing generally fail to simulate positive SIE trends over this time period. In this work, we quantify the role of winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on sea ice trends and variability with an Earth system model run under historic and anthropogenic forcing that nudges winds over the polar regions and Southern Ocean SSTs north of the sea ice to observations from 1979 to 2018. Simulations with nudged winds alone capture the observed interannual variability in SIE and the observed long-term trends from the early 1990s onward, yet for the longer 1979–2018 period they simulate a negative SIE trend, in part due to faster-than-observed warming at the global and hemispheric scale in the model. Simulations with both nudged winds and SSTs show no significant SIE trends over 1979–2018, in agreement with observations. At the regional scale, simulated sea ice shows higher skill compared to the pan-Antarctic scale both in capturing trends and interannual variability in all nudged simulations. We additionally find negligible impact of the initial conditions in 1979 on long-term trends.

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Analysis of responses in the dynamics of sea ice area in separate regions of the Arctic to change of insolation

Арктика и Антарктика ◽

10.7256/2453-8922.2020.2.31875 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 17-33

Author(s):

Valerii Mikhailovich Fedorov ◽

Pavel Borisovich Grebennikov ◽

Denis Maksimovich Frolov

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Barents Sea ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Regions ◽

Monthly Changes ◽

The Subject

The subject of this research is the correlation analysis of changes in the area of sea ice in separate regions of the Arctic, and levels of internal regional correlations between multiyear monthly changes in the area of sea ice of different seas and the entire Arctic Ocean. The author also examines peculiarities in the annual amplitude course of interannual variability of monthly indices of the area of sea ice for separate districts of the Arctic, interregional links in the annual course of this amplitude of interannual variability, and determination of correlation between the annual indices of the area of sea ice with annual insolation contrast for various Arctic regions. The research method is the correlation data analysis on the area of distribution of sea ice in different districts of the Arctic and insolation contrast. The author builds an algorithm of the value forecast in the changes of sea ice area. Based on the analysis of internal correlations between multiyear and annual changes in the sea ice area in the Arctic regions, and connection with the insolation and insolation contrast, an algorithm is proposed for the value forecast of changes in the sea ice area in separate districts of the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere overall. For long-term forecast of annual values of the changes in sea ice area, the promising districts are Baffin Bay, Kara Sea, Barents Sea, Greenland Sea and Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

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Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24742-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sofia Ribeiro ◽

Audrey Limoges ◽

Guillaume Massé ◽

Kasper L. Johansen ◽

William Colgan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Late Holocene ◽

Sediment Cores ◽

Arctic Ecosystems ◽

Little Auk ◽

The North ◽

Water Ecosystem ◽

North Water

AbstractHigh Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

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Multi-model dynamic climate emulator for solar geoengineering

10.5194/acp-2016-535 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Douglas G. MacMartin ◽

Ben Kravitz

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

General Circulation ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Nonlinear Effects ◽

Accurate Estimate ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Solar Geoengineering

Abstract. Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project the climate effects that would result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations for every possible pathway. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of green-house gas concentrations by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 x CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern hemisphere sea ice extent is less-well predicted, indicating the limits of the linearity assumption. For future pathways involving relatively small forcing from solar geoengineering, the errors introduced from nonlinear effects may be smaller than the uncertainty due to natural variability, and the emulator prediction may be a more accurate estimate of the forced component of the models' response than an actual simulation would be.

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Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1002/2017gl076502 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 45 (7) ◽

pp. 3255-3263 ◽

Cited By ~ 56

Author(s):

Fumiaki Ogawa ◽

Noel Keenlyside ◽

Yongqi Gao ◽

Torben Koenigk ◽

Shuting Yang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Winter Climate ◽

Winter Climate Change ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Hemisphere Winter ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽

Northern Hemisphere Winter

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IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN INSOLATION CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG-TERM SEA ICE EXTENT DYNAMICS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

Криосфера Земли ◽

10.15372/kz20210204 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Sea Ice Extent

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Evaluation of a Unique Approach to High-Resolution Climate Modelling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) version 5.1

10.5194/gmd-2019-34 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Allison C. Michaelis ◽

Gary M. Lackmann ◽

Walter A. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

General Circulation ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Northern Hemispheric

Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future thermodynamic environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select ten simulation years with varying phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analysed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most of Northern Hemispheric basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemispheric phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

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Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 3725-3743 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Allison C. Michaelis ◽

Gary M. Lackmann ◽

Walter A. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

General Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models

Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with varying phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

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