scholarly journals Significant Improvement of Cloud Representation in Global Climate Model MRI-ESM2

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideaki Kawai ◽  
Seiji Yukimoto ◽  
Tsuyoshi Koshiro ◽  
Naga Oshima ◽  
Taichu Tanaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Radiation Processes ◽  
Cloud Ice

Abstract. The development of the climate model MRI-ESM2, which is planned for use in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, involved significant improvements to the representation of clouds from the previous version MRI-CGCM3, which was used in the CMIP5 simulations. In particular, the serious lack of reflection of solar radiation over the Southern Ocean in MRI-CGCM3 was drastically improved in MRI-ESM2. The score of the spatial pattern of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere for MRI-ESM2 is better than for any CMIP5 model. In this paper, we set out comprehensively the various modifications related to clouds that contribute to the improved cloud representation, and the main impacts on the climate of each modification. The modifications cover various schemes and processes including the cloud scheme, turbulence scheme, cloud microphysics processes, interaction between cloud and convection schemes, resolution issues, cloud radiation processes, interaction with the aerosol model, and numerics. In addition, the new stratocumulus parameterization, which contributes considerably to increased low cloud cover and reduced radiation bias over the Southern Ocean, and the improved cloud ice fall scheme, which alleviates the time-step dependency of cloud ice content, are described in detail.

scholarly journals Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2875-2897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideaki Kawai ◽  
Seiji Yukimoto ◽  
Tsuyoshi Koshiro ◽  
Naga Oshima ◽  
Taichu Tanaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Meteorological Research Institute ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
Research Institute

Abstract. The development of the climate model MRI-ESM2 (Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2), which is planned for use in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, involved significant improvements to the representation of clouds from the previous version MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3), which was used in the CMIP5 simulations. In particular, the serious lack of reflection of solar radiation over the Southern Ocean in MRI-CGCM3 was drastically improved in MRI-ESM2. The score of the spatial pattern of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere for MRI-ESM2 is better than for any CMIP5 model. In this paper, we set out comprehensively the various modifications related to clouds that contribute to the improved cloud representation and the main impacts on the climate of each modification. The modifications cover various schemes and processes including the cloud scheme, turbulence scheme, cloud microphysics processes, interaction between cloud and convection schemes, resolution issues, cloud radiation processes, interaction with the aerosol model, and numerics. In addition, the new stratocumulus parameterization, which contributes considerably to increased low-cloud cover and reduced radiation bias over the Southern Ocean, and the improved cloud ice fall scheme, which alleviates the time-step dependency of cloud ice content, are described in detail.

scholarly journals Comparison of ice particle characteristics simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with in-situ observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 7637-7681 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Eidhammer ◽  
H. Morrison ◽  
A. Bansemer ◽  
A. Gettelman ◽  
A. J. Heymsfield
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Slope Parameter ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Threshold Size ◽  
Cloud Ice

Abstract. Detailed measurements of ice crystals in cirrus clouds were used to compare with results from the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5) global climate model. The observations are from two different field campaigns with contrasting conditions: Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Spring Cloud Intensive Operational Period in 2000 (ARM-IOP), which was characterized primarily by midlatitude frontal clouds and cirrus, and Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), which was dominated by anvil cirrus. Results show that the model typically overestimates the slope parameter of the exponential size distributions of cloud ice and snow, while the variation with temperature (height) is comparable. The model also overestimates the ice/snow number concentration (0th moment of the size distribution) and underestimates higher moments (2nd through 5th), but compares well with observations for the 1st moment. Overall the model shows better agreement with observations for TC4 than for ARM-IOP in regards to the moments. The mass-weighted terminal fallspeed is lower in the model compared to observations for both ARM-IOP and TC4, which is partly due to the overestimation of the size distribution slope parameter. Sensitivity tests with modification of the threshold size for cloud ice to snow autoconversion (Dcs) do not show noticeable improvement in modeled moments, slope parameter and mass weighed fallspeed compared to observations. Further, there is considerable sensitivity of the cloud radiative forcing to Dcs, consistent with previous studies, but no value of Dcs improves modeled cloud radiative forcing compared to measurements. Since the autoconversion of cloud ice to snow using the threshold size Dcs has little physical basis, future improvement to combine cloud ice and snow into a single category, eliminating the need for autoconversion, is suggested.

How detailed do cloud microphysics need to be in climate models?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Proske ◽  
Sylvaine Ferrachat ◽  
David Neubauer ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Model Response ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Improved Accuracy

<p>Clouds are of major importance for the climate system, but the radiative forcing resulting from their interaction with aerosols remains uncertain. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, the parameterisations of cloud microphysical processes (CMPs) have become increasingly detailed. However, more detailed climate models do not necessarily result in improved accuracy for estimates of radiative forcing (Knutti and Sedláček, 2013; Carslaw et al., 2018). On the contrary, simpler formulations are cheaper, sufficient for some applications, and allow for an easier understanding of the respective process' effect in the model.</p><p>This study aims to gain an understanding which CMP parameterisation complexity is sufficient through simplification. We gradually phase out processes such as riming or aggregation from the global climate model ECHAM-HAM, meaning that the processes are only allowed to exhibit a fraction of their effect on the model state. The shape of the model response as a function of the artificially scaled effect of a given process helps to understand the importance of this process for the model response and its potential for simplification. For example, if partially removing a process induces only minor alterations in the present day climate, this process presents as a good candidate for simplification. This may be then further investigated, for example in terms of computing time.<br>The resulting sensitivities to CMP complexity are envisioned to guide CMP model simplifications as well as steer research towards those processes where a more accurate representation proves to be necessary.</p><p> </p><p><br>Carslaw, Kenneth, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, and Jill Johnson (Feb. 2018). “Climate Models Are Uncertain, but We Can Do Something About It”. In: Eos 99. doi: 10.1029/2018EO093757</p><p>Knutti, Reto and Jan Sedláček (Apr. 2013). “Robustness and Uncertainties in the New CMIP5 Climate Model Projections”. In: Nature Climate Change 3.4, pp. 369–373. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1716</p>

scholarly journals Decadal Prediction of the Sahelian Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7708-7719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

Abstract In this study the capability of eight state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled models in predicting the monsoonal precipitation in the Sahel on a decadal time scale is assessed. To estimate the importance of the initialization, the predictive skills of two different CMIP5 experiments are compared, a set of 10 decadal hindcasts initialized every 5 years in the period 1961–2009 and the historical simulations in the period 1961–2005. Results indicate that predictive skills are highly model dependent: the Fourth Generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CanCM4), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 (CNRM-CM5), and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) models show improved skill in the decadal hindcasts, while the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) is skillful in both the decadal and historical experiments. The Beijing Climate Center, Climate System Model, version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with NEMO, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR), and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) models show insignificant or no skill in predicting the Sahelian precipitation. Skillful predictions are produced by models properly describing the SST multidecadal variability and the initialization appears to play an important role in this respect.

Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 524-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Shaoqing Zhang ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Super Typhoon

Abstract While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather time scale” predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model’s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy’s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan’s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.

scholarly journals Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6938-6959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex J. Cannon ◽  
Stephen R. Sobie ◽  
Trevor Q. Murdock
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Value Analysis

Abstract Quantile mapping bias correction algorithms are commonly used to correct systematic distributional biases in precipitation outputs from climate models. Although they are effective at removing historical biases relative to observations, it has been found that quantile mapping can artificially corrupt future model-projected trends. Previous studies on the modification of precipitation trends by quantile mapping have focused on mean quantities, with less attention paid to extremes. This article investigates the extent to which quantile mapping algorithms modify global climate model (GCM) trends in mean precipitation and precipitation extremes indices. First, a bias correction algorithm, quantile delta mapping (QDM), that explicitly preserves relative changes in precipitation quantiles is presented. QDM is compared on synthetic data with detrended quantile mapping (DQM), which is designed to preserve trends in the mean, and with standard quantile mapping (QM). Next, methods are applied to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) daily precipitation projections over Canada. Performance is assessed based on precipitation extremes indices and results from a generalized extreme value analysis applied to annual precipitation maxima. QM can inflate the magnitude of relative trends in precipitation extremes with respect to the raw GCM, often substantially, as compared to DQM and especially QDM. The degree of corruption in the GCM trends by QM is particularly large for changes in long period return values. By the 2080s, relative changes in excess of +500% with respect to historical conditions are noted at some locations for 20-yr return values, with maximum changes by DQM and QDM nearing +240% and +140%, respectively, whereas raw GCM changes are never projected to exceed +120%.

Parameterizing gravity waves in the DYNAMICO-Saturn Global Climate Model to understand Saturn's equatorial oscillation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Bardet ◽  
Aymeric Spiga ◽  
Sandrine Guerlet ◽  
Ehouarn Millour ◽  
François Lott
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
The Mean

<p>To address questions about the driving mechanisms of Saturn's equatorial oscillation, our team at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique built the DYNAMICO-Saturn Global Climate Model to study tropospheric dynamics, tropospheric waves activity (Spiga et al. 2020) and equatorial stratospheric dynamics (Bardet et al. 2020) of Saturn. Previous studies (Guerlet et al. 2014, Spiga et al. 2020, Cabanes et al. 2020) have shown that our model produces consistent thermal structure and seasonal variability compared to Cassini CIRS measurements, mid-latitude eddy-driven tropospheric eastward and westward jets commensurate to those observed and following the zonostrophic regime, and planetary-scale waves such as Rossby-gravity (Yanai), Rossby and Kelvin waves in the tropical channel. Extending the model top toward the upper stratosphere allowed our model to produce an almost semi-annual equatorial oscillation with opposite eastward and westward phases. Associated temperature anomalies have a similar behavior than the Cassini/CIRS observations, but the amplitude of the temperature oscillation is twice smaller than the observed one. The absence of sub-grid-scale waves in the model produces an imbalance in eastward- and westward-wave forcing on the mean flow and could be an explanation to the irregularity in both the oscillating period and the downward rate propagation of the resolved Saturn equatorial oscillation.</p> <p>To explore the impact of those small-scale waves on the spontaneous equatorial oscillation emerging in the DYNAMICO-Saturn GCM (Bardet et al. 2020), we add a sub-grid-scale non-orographic gravity waves drag parameterization in our model.<br />This parameterization is directly adapted from the stochastic terrestrial model of Lott et al. (2012). This formalism represents a broadband gravity wave spectrum, using the superposition of a large statistical set of monochromatic waves. As the time scale of the life cycles of gravity waves is much longer than the time step of our GCM, our parametrization can launch a few waves whose characteristics are randomly chosen at each time step. This stochastic gravity waves drag parameterization is applied in DYNAMICO-Saturn on all points of the horizontal grid.</p> <p>A key parameter used in the non-orographic gravity waves drag parameterization is the maximum value of the Eliassen-Palm flux. The Eliassen Palm flux represents the momentum carried by waves that could be transferred to the mean flow. This value has never been measured in Saturn's atmosphere and it represents an important degree of freedom in the parameterization of gravity waves.</p> <p>We performed several test simulations, lasting two Saturn years whose initial state is derived from Bardet et al (2020), with an horizontal resolution of 1/2° in longitude/latitude and a vertical resolution ranging between 3 bar to 1 μbar. For these test simulations, the maximum value of the Eliassen-Palm fulx is set to 10<sup>-6</sup>, 10<sup>-5</sup>, 10<sup>-4</sup> and 10<sup>-3</sup> kg m<sup>-1</sup> s<sup>-2</sup>. </p> <p>Preliminary results show that the appropriate value of our main parameter is between 10<sup>-5</sup> and 10<sup>-4</sup> kg m<sup>-1</sup> s<sup>-2</sup>. Eliassen-Palm flux value of 10<sup>-3</sup> kg m<sup>-1</sup> s<sup>-2</sup> demonstrates a too large impact: the equatorial oscillation is entirely vanished is this configuration. The simulation using the value of 10<sup>-6</sup> kg m<sup>-1</sup> s<sup>-2</sup> is equivalent to the control simulation without the gravity waves drag parameterization.  </p> <p>The next step is to test other parameters, as phase velocity of the gravity waves, horizontal wavenumber, to understand how gravity waves impact the equatorial oscillation.</p>

Southern Ocean Response to Strengthening Winds in an Eddy-Permitting Global Climate Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5332-5343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Spence ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
Alvaro Montenegro ◽  
Andrew J. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Antarctic Circumpolar Current ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ocean Response ◽  
Circumpolar Current ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract A global climate model with horizontal resolutions in the ocean ranging from relatively coarse to eddy permitting is used to investigate the resolution dependence of the Southern Ocean response to poleward intensifying winds through the past and present centuries. The higher-resolution simulations show poleward migration of distinct ocean fronts associated with a more highly localized near-surface temperature response than in the lower-resolution simulations. The higher-resolution simulations also show increasing southward eddy heat transport, less high-latitude cooling, and greater sea ice loss than the lower-resolution simulations. For all resolutions, from relatively coarse to eddy permitting, there is poleward migration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Atlantic and the western half of the Indian basin. Finally, zonal transports associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown to be sensitive to resolution, and this is discussed in the context of recent observed change.

Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1931) ◽  
pp. 5137-5149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengjun Jin ◽  
Akio Kitoh ◽  
Pinhas Alpert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Projected Changes

Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979–2007) and a future run (2075–2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter, the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti’s. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation ( P ) between the future and the current run for sea and land are −11 per cent and −10 per cent, respectively, which are not as high as Mariotti’s. Projected changes for evaporation ( E ) are +9.3 per cent and −3.6 per cent, compared with +7.2 per cent and −8.1 per cent in Mariotti’s study, respectively. However, no significant difference in the change in P – E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget, P – E , shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile).

scholarly journals Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10539-10583 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Eyring ◽  
S. Bony ◽  
G. A. Meehl ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
B. Stevens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments) and the CMIP Historical Simulation (1850–near-present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP, (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble, and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and the CMIP Historical Simulation to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP Historical Simulation, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. The participation in the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs will be at the discretion of the modelling groups, and will depend on scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: (i) how does the Earth system respond to forcing?, (ii) what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?, and (iii) how can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.

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