scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds

Climate ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné ◽  
Marco Braun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Assessing runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under global climate-change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Chen ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Yuelu Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions.

Model based climate change impact assessment of river water quality in Wales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Dallison ◽  
Sopan Patil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Water Quality Variables

<p>Climate change is likely to threaten the consistent provision of clean drinking water in the UK, in terms of both water quantity and quality. Water quality could be especially problematic due to projected increases in extreme weather events such as droughts and flooding, both of which have a deleterious impact on water quality.</p><p>This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with UK Climate Projections (UKCP) 2018 data to model the impacts of a worst-case global emissions scenario (RCP8.5), on water quality for five catchments in Wales, UK. Our five study catchments (Clwyd, Conwy, Dyfi, Teifi, and Tywi) cover approximately 21% of the total area of Wales and are an important source of water supply for the North, West, and South-West Wales regions. We use an ensemble of 12 regionally downscaled Global Climate Models as inputs to account for uncertainty in the projections and temporal snapshots are taken for the 2020-39, 2040-59 and 2060-78 periods. We focus on the concentrations of four specific water quality variables: nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P), suspended sediment (SS), and dissolved oxygen (DO).</p><p>At all five catchments, SWAT is calibrated using river flow data only, due to the lack of water quality measurements. SWAT parameters related to water quality are kept at their default values. While this approach increases the uncertainty related to the specific values of water quality variables, it does provide the relative changes in specific water quality variables under future climate conditions. Results show that changing river flow patterns, both long term averages and extreme events, have a large impact on water quality. Concentrations of all four water quality variables show clear correlations with river flow. The largest changes in seasonal water quality are generally observed in spring and autumn, especially for P and N concentrations. Sediment concentrations and DO levels have an inverse relationship, with SS levels increasing with increased river flow and DO levels decreasing.</p><p>Results of this study are useful for water resource management and planning, especially in terms of the potential adaptation measures required to cope with the additional treatment required at water treatment works. By taking twenty-year snapshots our study also allows for short, medium and long term solutions to be planned.</p>

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

scholarly journals Long-term changes of river discharge regime in Latvia

2008 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maris Klavins ◽  
Valery Rodinov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
High Water ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Discharge Regime

The study of changes in river discharge is important for regional climate variability characterization and for development of an efficient water resource management system. The hydrological regime of rivers and their long-term changes in Latvia were investigated. Four major types of river hydrological regimes, which depend on climatic and physicogeographic factors, were characterized. These factors are linked to the changes observed in river discharge. Periodic oscillations of discharge, and low- and high-water flow years are common for the major rivers in Latvia. A main frequency of river discharge regime changes of about 20 and 13 years was estimated for the studied rivers. A significant impact of climate variability on the river discharge regime has been found.

scholarly journals Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 278-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
BRIAN FOLEY ◽  
IAN D. JONES ◽  
STEPHEN C. MABERLY ◽  
BRIAN RIPPEY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oxygen Depletion ◽  
Temperate Lake ◽  
Long Term Changes

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in a Mountainous Mediterranean Catchment (Central Pindus, Greece)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanos Stefanidis ◽  
Dimitrios Stathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Potential Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Mountainous Catchment ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The aim of this study was to assess soil erosion changes in the mountainous catchment of the Portaikos torrent (Central Greece) under climate change. To this end, precipitation and temperature data were derived from a high-resolution (25 × 25 km) RegCM3 regional climate model for the baseline period 1974–2000 and future period 2074–2100. Additionally, three GIS layers were generated regarding land cover, geology, and slopes in the study area, whereas erosion state was recognized after field observations. Subsequently, the erosion potential model (EPM) was applied to quantify the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on soil erosion. The results showed a decrease (−21.2%) in annual precipitation (mm) and increase (+3.6 °C) in mean annual temperature until the end of the 21st century, and the above changes are likely to lead to a small decrease (−4.9%) in soil erosion potential.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document