Using machine learning to predict optimal electromagnetic  induction instrument configurations for  characterizing the shallow subsurface

Abstract. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) is used widely for hydrological and other environmental studies. The apparent electrical conductivity (ECa), which can be mapped efficiently with EMI, correlates with a variety of important soil attributes. EMI instruments exist with several configurations of coil spacing, orientation, and height. There are general, rule-of-thumb guides to choose an optimal instrument configuration for a specific survey. The goal of this study was to provide a robust and efficient way to design this optimization task. In this investigation, we used machine learning (ML) as an efficient tool for interpolating among the results of many forward model runs. Specifically, we generated an ensemble of 100 000 EMI forward models representing the responses of many EMI configurations to a range of three-layer subsurface models. We split the results into training and testing subsets and trained a decision tree (DT) with gradient boosting (GB) to predict the subsurface properties (layer thicknesses and EC values). We further examined the value of prior knowledge that could limit the ranges of some of the soil model parameters. We made use of the intrinsic feature importance measures of machine learning algorithms to identify optimal EMI designs for specific subsurface parameters. The optimal designs identified using this approach agreed with those that are generally recognized as optimal by informed experts for standard survey goals, giving confidence in the ML-based approach. The approach also offered insight that would be difficult, if not impossible, to offer based on rule-of-thumb optimization. We contend that such ML-informed design approaches could be applied broadly to other survey design challenges.

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Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems ◽

10.3233/jifs-189120 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 39 (5) ◽

pp. 6579-6590

Author(s):

Sandy Çağlıyor ◽

Başar Öztayşi ◽

Selime Sezgin

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Global Economy ◽

Learning Algorithms ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

High Stakes ◽

Box Office ◽

Industry Forecast ◽

The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

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Predicting Undesired Treatment Outcome in Mental Healthcare: Machine Learning Study (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.17235 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kasper Van Mens ◽

Joran Lokkerbol ◽

Richard Janssen ◽

Robert de Lange ◽

Bea Tiemens

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Treatment Outcome ◽

Mental Health Treatment ◽

Mental Healthcare ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Trade Off ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Outcome Monitoring ◽

Extreme Gradient Boosting

BACKGROUND It remains a challenge to predict which treatment will work for which patient in mental healthcare. OBJECTIVE In this study we compare machine algorithms to predict during treatment which patients will not benefit from brief mental health treatment and present trade-offs that must be considered before an algorithm can be used in clinical practice. METHODS Using an anonymized dataset containing routine outcome monitoring data from a mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands (n = 2,655), we applied three machine learning algorithms to predict treatment outcome. The algorithms were internally validated with cross-validation on a training sample (n = 1,860) and externally validated on an unseen test sample (n = 795). RESULTS The performance of the three algorithms did not significantly differ on the test set. With a default classification cut-off at 0.5 predicted probability, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm showed the highest positive predictive value (ppv) of 0.71(0.61 – 0.77) with a sensitivity of 0.35 (0.29 – 0.41) and area under the curve of 0.78. A trade-off can be made between ppv and sensitivity by choosing different cut-off probabilities. With a cut-off at 0.63, the ppv increased to 0.87 and the sensitivity dropped to 0.17. With a cut-off of at 0.38, the ppv decreased to 0.61 and the sensitivity increased to 0.57. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning can be used to predict treatment outcomes based on routine monitoring data.This allows practitioners to choose their own trade-off between being selective and more certain versus inclusive and less certain.

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Feasibility of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting the Deformation of Anodic Titanium Films by Modulating Anodization Processes

Materials ◽

10.3390/ma14051089 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (5) ◽

pp. 1089

Author(s):

Sung-Hee Kim ◽

Chanyoung Jeong

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Learning Algorithms ◽

Multiclass Classification ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

Smart Manufacturing ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Experimental Conditions ◽

Learning Techniques ◽

Tio2 Nanostructures

This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of applying eight machine learning algorithms to predict the classification of the surface characteristics of titanium oxide (TiO2) nanostructures with different anodization processes. We produced a total of 100 samples, and we assessed changes in TiO2 nanostructures’ thicknesses by performing anodization. We successfully grew TiO2 films with different thicknesses by one-step anodization in ethylene glycol containing NH4F and H2O at applied voltage differences ranging from 10 V to 100 V at various anodization durations. We found that the thicknesses of TiO2 nanostructures are dependent on anodization voltages under time differences. Therefore, we tested the feasibility of applying machine learning algorithms to predict the deformation of TiO2. As the characteristics of TiO2 changed based on the different experimental conditions, we classified its surface pore structure into two categories and four groups. For the classification based on granularity, we assessed layer creation, roughness, pore creation, and pore height. We applied eight machine learning techniques to predict classification for binary and multiclass classification. For binary classification, random forest and gradient boosting algorithm had relatively high performance. However, all eight algorithms had scores higher than 0.93, which signifies high prediction on estimating the presence of pore. In contrast, decision tree and three ensemble methods had a relatively higher performance for multiclass classification, with an accuracy rate greater than 0.79. The weakest algorithm used was k-nearest neighbors for both binary and multiclass classifications. We believe that these results show that we can apply machine learning techniques to predict surface quality improvement, leading to smart manufacturing technology to better control color appearance, super-hydrophobicity, super-hydrophilicity or batter efficiency.

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Prediction of Healing Performance of Autogenous Healing Concrete Using Machine Learning

Materials ◽

10.3390/ma14154068 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (15) ◽

pp. 4068

Author(s):

Xu Huang ◽

Mirna Wasouf ◽

Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽

Sakdirat Kaewunruen

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Search Algorithm ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Prediction Performance ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Self Healing ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann

Cracks typically develop in concrete due to shrinkage, loading actions, and weather conditions; and may occur anytime in its life span. Autogenous healing concrete is a type of self-healing concrete that can automatically heal cracks based on physical or chemical reactions in concrete matrix. It is imperative to investigate the healing performance that autogenous healing concrete possesses, to assess the extent of the cracking and to predict the extent of healing. In the research of self-healing concrete, testing the healing performance of concrete in a laboratory is costly, and a mass of instances may be needed to explore reliable concrete design. This study is thus the world’s first to establish six types of machine learning algorithms, which are capable of predicting the healing performance (HP) of self-healing concrete. These algorithms involve an artificial neural network (ANN), a k-nearest neighbours (kNN), a gradient boosting regression (GBR), a decision tree regression (DTR), a support vector regression (SVR) and a random forest (RF). Parameters of these algorithms are tuned utilising grid search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). The prediction performance indicated by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) measures of these algorithms are evaluated on the basis of 1417 data sets from the open literature. The results show that GSA-GBR performs higher prediction performance (R2GSA-GBR = 0.958) and stronger robustness (RMSEGSA-GBR = 0.202) than the other five types of algorithms employed to predict the healing performance of autogenous healing concrete. Therefore, reliable prediction accuracy of the healing performance and efficient assistance on the design of autogenous healing concrete can be achieved.

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Comparison of Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Soil Erosion Pin Measurements

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10010042 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 42

Author(s):

Kieu Anh Nguyen ◽

Walter Chen ◽

Bor-Shiun Lin ◽

Uma Seeboonruang

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Ensemble Methods ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Ensemble Machine Learning ◽

Boosting Method ◽

Bagging Method

Although machine learning has been extensively used in various fields, it has only recently been applied to soil erosion pin modeling. To improve upon previous methods of quantifying soil erosion based on erosion pin measurements, this study explored the possible application of ensemble machine learning algorithms to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. Three categories of ensemble methods were considered in this study: (a) Bagging, (b) boosting, and (c) stacking. The bagging method in this study refers to bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (bagged MARS) and random forest (RF), and the boosting method includes Cubist and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Finally, the stacking method is an ensemble method that uses a meta-model to combine the predictions of base models. This study used RF and GBM as the meta-models, decision tree, linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine as the base models. The dataset used in this study was sampled using stratified random sampling to achieve a 70/30 split for the training and test data, and the process was repeated three times. The performance of six ensemble methods in three categories was analyzed based on the average of three attempts. It was found that GBM performed the best among the ensemble models with the lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE = 1.72 mm/year), the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.54), and the highest index of agreement (d = 0.81). This result was confirmed by the spatial comparison of the absolute differences (errors) between model predictions and observations using GBM and RF in the study area. In summary, the results show that as a group, the bagging method and the boosting method performed equally well, and the stacking method was third for the erosion pin dataset considered in this study.

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Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases

Information ◽

10.3390/info12030109 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 109 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Iman Rahimi ◽

Amir H. Gandomi ◽

Panagiotis G. Asteris ◽

Fang Chen

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Logistic Function ◽

Prediction Performance ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Model Parameters ◽

The Novel ◽

Chinese City ◽

Limited Memory ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-19, is a disease outbreak that was first identified in Wuhan, a Central Chinese city. In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions. Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries. Since the performance of the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR depends on parameter settings, some optimization algorithms, namely Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), conjugate gradients (CG), limited memory bound constrained BFGS (L-BFGS-B), and Nelder–Mead, are proposed to optimize the parameters and the predictive capabilities of the SIR and SEIQR models. The results of the optimized SIR and SEIQR models were compared with those of two well-known machine learning algorithms, i.e., the Prophet algorithm and logistic function. The results demonstrate the different behaviors of these algorithms in different countries as well as the better performance of the improved SIR and SEIQR models. Moreover, the Prophet algorithm was found to provide better prediction performance than the logistic function, as well as better prediction performance for Italy and UK cases than for Australian cases. Therefore, it seems that the Prophet algorithm is suitable for data with an increasing trend in the context of a pandemic. Optimization of SIR and SEIQR model parameters yielded a significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the models. Despite the availability of several algorithms for trend predictions in this pandemic, there is no single algorithm that would be optimal for all cases.

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Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology ◽

10.22214/ijraset.2021.36028 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (VI) ◽

pp. 4367-4374

Author(s):

Gudipally Chandrashakar

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Gold Price ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Series Data ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Average Value ◽

Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

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Predicting hospitalization following psychiatric crisis care using machine learning

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making ◽

10.1186/s12911-020-01361-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Matthijs Blankers ◽

Louk F. M. van der Post ◽

Jack J. M. Dekker

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Learning Algorithms ◽

Nearest Neighbors ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

K Nearest Neighbors ◽

Crisis Care

Abstract Background Accurate prediction models for whether patients on the verge of a psychiatric criseis need hospitalization are lacking and machine learning methods may help improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms, including the generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact. We also evaluate an ensemble model to optimize the accuracy and we explore individual predictors of hospitalization. Methods Data from 2084 patients included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact were included. Target variable for the prediction models was whether the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion. The predictive power of 39 variables related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts was evaluated. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared and we also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis and the five best performing algorithms were combined in an ensemble model using stacking. Results All models performed above chance level. We found Gradient Boosting to be the best performing algorithm (AUC = 0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors to be the least performing (AUC = 0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC = 0.76) was slightly above average among the tested algorithms. In a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression by 2.9% and K-Nearest Neighbors by 11.3%. GLM/logistic regression outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors by 8.7%. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was in most cases modest. The results show that a predictive accuracy similar to the best performing model can be achieved when combining multiple algorithms in an ensemble model.

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Predicting Hospitalization following Psychiatric Crisis Care using Machine Learning

10.21203/rs.2.12338/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Matthijs Blankers ◽

Louk F. M. van der Post ◽

Jack J. M. Dekker

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Learning Algorithms ◽

Nearest Neighbors ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Predictor Variables ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

K Nearest Neighbors ◽

Psychiatric Crisis ◽

Crisis Care

Abstract Background: It is difficult to accurately predict whether a patient on the verge of a potential psychiatric crisis will need to be hospitalized. Machine learning may be helpful to improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate and compare the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms including the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact, and explore the most important predictor variables of hospitalization. Methods: Data from 2,084 patients with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry were used. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared. We also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis. Target variable for the prediction models was whether or not the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion in the study. The 39 predictor variables were related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts. Results: We found Gradient Boosting to perform the best (AUC=0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors performing the least (AUC=0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC=0.76) was above average among the tested algorithms. Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression and K-Nearest Neighbors, and GLM outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors in a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis, although the differences between Gradient Boosting and GLM/logistic regression were small. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions: Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was modest. Future studies may consider to combine multiple algorithms in an ensemble model for optimal performance and to mitigate the risk of choosing suboptimal performing algorithms.

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MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-750123/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Polash Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Tree Cover ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Learning Methods ◽

Sikkim Himalaya ◽

Environmental Features ◽

Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 14 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.

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