scholarly journals Characterization of physically based hydrologic model behaviour with temporal sensitivity analysis for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1375-1422
Author(s):  
P. A. Garambois ◽  
H. Roux ◽  
K. Larnier ◽  
W. Castaings ◽  
D. Dartus
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract. This paper presents a detailed analysis of 10 flash flood events in the Mediterranean region using the distributed hydrological model MARINE. Characterizing catchment's response during flash flood events may provide a new and valuable insight into the processes involved for extreme flood response and their dependency on catchment properties and flood severity. The main objective of this study is to analyze hydrologic model sensitivity in the case of flash floods with a new approach in hydrology, allowing model outputs variance decomposition for temporal patterns of parameter sensitivity analysis. Such approaches enable ranking of uncertainty sources for non-linear and non-monotonic mappings with a low computational cost. This study uses hydrologic model and sensitivity analysis as learning tools to derive temporal sensitivity analysis with a variance based method in the case of 10 flash floods that occurred in the French Pyrenees and Cévennes foothills. This constitutes a huge dataset given the scarcity of data about flash flood events. With Nash performances above 0.73 on average for this extended set of validation events, the five sensitive parameters of MARINE distributed physically based model are analyzed. This contribution shows that soil depth explains more than 80% of model output variance when most hydrographs are peaking. Moreover the lateral subsurface transfer is responsible for 80% of model variance for some catchment-flood events' hydrographs during slow declining limbs. The unexplained variance of model output representing interactions between parameters reveals to be very low during modeled flood peaks and informs that model parsimonious parameterization is appropriate to tackle the problem of flash floods. Interactions observed after model initialization or rainfall intensity peaks incite to improve water partition representation between flow components and initialization itself. This paper gives a practical framework for application of this method to other models, landscapes and climatic conditions, potentially helping to improve processes understanding and representation.

scholarly journals Characterization of process-oriented hydrologic model behavior with temporal sensitivity analysis for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2305-2322 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Garambois ◽  
H. Roux ◽  
K. Larnier ◽  
W. Castaings ◽  
D. Dartus
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Process Oriented

Abstract. This paper presents a detailed analysis of 10 flash flood events in the Mediterranean region using the distributed hydrological model MARINE. Characterizing catchment response during flash flood events may provide new and valuable insight into the dynamics involved for extreme catchment response and their dependency on physiographic properties and flood severity. The main objective of this study is to analyze flash-flood-dedicated hydrologic model sensitivity with a new approach in hydrology, allowing model outputs variance decomposition for temporal patterns of parameter sensitivity analysis. Such approaches enable ranking of uncertainty sources for nonlinear and nonmonotonic mappings with a low computational cost. Hydrologic model and sensitivity analysis are used as learning tools on a large flash flood dataset. With Nash performances above 0.73 on average for this extended set of 10 validation events, the five sensitive parameters of MARINE process-oriented distributed model are analyzed. This contribution shows that soil depth explains more than 80% of model output variance when most hydrographs are peaking. Moreover, the lateral subsurface transfer is responsible for 80% of model variance for some catchment-flood events' hydrographs during slow-declining limbs. The unexplained variance of model output representing interactions between parameters reveals to be very low during modeled flood peaks and informs that model-parsimonious parameterization is appropriate to tackle the problem of flash floods. Interactions observed after model initialization or rainfall intensity peaks incite to improve water partition representation between flow components and initialization itself. This paper gives a practical framework for application of this method to other models, landscapes and climatic conditions, potentially helping to improve processes understanding and representation.

The Use of an Automated Nowcasting System to Forecast Flash Floods in an Urban Watershed

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hatim O. Sharif ◽  
David Yates ◽  
Rita Roberts ◽  
Cynthia Mueller
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Urban Settings ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract Flash flooding represents a significant hazard to human safety and a threat to property. Simulation and prediction of floods in complex urban settings requires high-resolution precipitation estimates and distributed hydrologic modeling. The need for reliable flash flood forecasting has increased in recent years, especially in urban communities, because of the high costs associated with flood occurrences. Several storm nowcast systems use radar to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts that can potentially afford great benefits to flood warning and short-term forecasting in urban settings. In this paper, the potential benefits of high-resolution weather radar data, physically based distributed hydrologic modeling, and quantitative precipitation nowcasting for urban hydrology and flash flood prediction were demonstrated by forcing a physically based distributed hydrologic model with precipitation forecasts made by a convective storm nowcast system to predict flash floods in a small, highly urbanized catchment in Denver, Colorado. Two rainfall events on 5 and 8 July 2001 in the Harvard Gulch watershed are presented that correspond to times during which the storm nowcast system was operated. Results clearly indicate that high-resolution radar-rainfall estimates and advanced nowcasting can potentially lead to improvements in flood warning and forecasting in urban watersheds, even for short-lived events on small catchments. At lead times of 70 min before the occurrence of peak discharge, forecast accuracies of approximately 17% in peak discharge and 10 min in peak timing were achieved for a 10 km2 highly urbanized catchment.

scholarly journals Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 461-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Loosvelt ◽  
H. Vernieuwe ◽  
V. R. N. Pauwels ◽  
B. De Baets ◽  
N. E. C. Verhoest
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Soil Texture ◽  
Compositional Data ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Local Sensitivity ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling ◽  
Compositional Model ◽  
Additional Data Collection

Abstract. Compositional data, such as soil texture, are hard to deal with in the geosciences as standard statistical methods are often inappropriate to analyse this type of data. Especially in sensitivity analysis, the closed character of the data is often ignored. To that end, we developed a method to assess the local sensitivity of a model output with resect to a compositional model input. We adapted the finite difference technique such that the different parts of the input are perturbed simultaneously while the closed character of the data is preserved. This method was applied to a hydrologic model and the sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture content to local changes in soil texture was assessed. Based on a high number of model runs, in which the soil texture was varied across the entire texture triangle, we identified zones of high sensitivity in the texture triangle. In such zones, the model output uncertainty induced by the discrepancy between the scale of measurement and the scale of model application, is advised to be reduced through additional data collection. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis provided more insight into the hydrologic model behaviour as it revealed how the model sensitivity is related to the shape of the soil moistureretention curve.

scholarly journals Extending the Predictability of Hydrometeorological Flood Events Using Radar Rainfall Nowcasting

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 660-677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique R. Vivoni ◽  
Dara Entekhabi ◽  
Rafael L. Bras ◽  
Valeriy Y. Ivanov ◽  
Matthew P. Van Horne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Time Operation ◽  
Forecast Lead Time

Abstract The predictability of hydrometeorological flood events is investigated through the combined use of radar nowcasting and distributed hydrologic modeling. Nowcasting of radar-derived rainfall fields can extend the lead time for issuing flood and flash flood forecasts based on a physically based hydrologic model that explicitly accounts for spatial variations in topography, surface characteristics, and meteorological forcing. Through comparisons to discharge observations at multiple gauges (at the basin outlet and interior points), flood predictability is assessed as a function of forecast lead time, catchment scale, and rainfall spatial variability in a simulated real-time operation. The forecast experiments are carried out at temporal and spatial scales relevant for operational hydrologic forecasting. Two modes for temporal coupling of the radar nowcasting and distributed hydrologic models (interpolation and extended-lead forecasting) are proposed and evaluated for flood events within a set of nested basins in Oklahoma. Comparisons of the radar-based forecasts to persistence show the advantages of utilizing radar nowcasting for predicting near-future rainfall during flood event evolution.

The unusual floods and flood frequency in 1858–1878 dry period in Central and Western Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libor Elleder ◽  
Ladislav Kašpárek ◽  
Jakub Krejčí ◽  
Jolana Šírová ◽  
Stanislav Racko
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Strong Winds

<p>According to the present knowledge, the second half of the 19<sup>th</sup> century meant the end of the Little Ice Age and gradual warming.  This is, however, undoubtedly a fairly simplified statement.  Our contribution presents the period of 1858–1878: (1) from the point of view of drought but also (2) regarding frequency of floods. The aggregation for this period of weather-driven risks such as droughts, floods, strong winds and high tides, is worth attention.  The length of the drought period of 1858–1878, the absolute value of rainfall deficits and the length of seasonal droughts, as well as their impacts, are a certain warning in terms of our present.</p><p>Surprisingly, in such a dry period we witness an accumulation of important and extreme flood episodes as well. The regional catastrophic floods of 1858, and winter extensive floods of 1862 and 1876, may serve as excellent examples.  Furthermore, the Elbe catchment recorded floods with return periods of 10–20 years in 1860, 1865 and 1872. For this period, an occurrence of intensive mesoscale flash flood events with extreme hydrological parameters, high number of fatalities and large damages are of the utmost importance (e.g. 1868-Switzerland, 1872-Czechlands, 1874- Catalonia, 1875-South France). Our contribution builds on earlier analysed flood events of 1872, 1875 and drought period presented at EGU earlier. The contribution stresses the analogies and differences with present situation in 2014–2019.  We mainly address the situation in Czech lands, Central Europe interpreted in wider European context.</p>

scholarly journals Post-event analysis and flash flood hydrology in Slovakia

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
Oliver Horvát ◽  
Pavel Šťastný ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Flood Peaks

Abstract This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

scholarly journals Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3809-3827 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Atencia ◽  
L. Mediero ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
L. Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Time Resolution ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Correction Technique

Abstract. The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of the Submersible Embankment in Haor Area in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 780-792
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hossain Mahtab ◽  
Miho Ohara ◽  
Mohamed Rasmy ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Embankment Height ◽  
North Eastern Part

The north-eastern part of Bangladesh is very productive for agriculture and fishing, and the region involves several depressed (haor) areas. Flash floods during the pre-monsoon period bring devastating damage to agriculture in the haor region recurrently. To protect crops from flash floods, the Bangladesh Water Development Board constructed several ring-type submersible embankments. In this research, we have investigated the effectiveness of submersible embankments in controlling flash flooding in the Matian and Shanir haors in the Sunamganj district. A two-dimensional rainfall runoff inundation model was applied considering several scenarios for simulating heavy flash flood events in 2004, 2010, and 2016. Without an embankment, the river overflow would have entered the Matian haor 3 days, 22 days, and 9 days earlier in 2004, 2010, and 2016, respectively, whereas it would have been 7 days and 23 days earlier in 2004 and 2010 for the Shanir haor. The event in 2016 was successfully stopped by the Shanir haor embankment. To avoid river overflow entering into the Matian and Shanir haor completely, the embankment height must be elevated further by 1 m and 0.7 m, respectively. Providing proper drainage facilities for the accumulated rain water inside the hoar is still an important issue for protecting the crops effectively.

scholarly journals Impact of Flash Flood Events on the Coastal Waters Around Madeira Island: The “Land Mass Effect”

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Rosa ◽  
Cláudio Cardoso ◽  
Rui Vieira ◽  
Ricardo Faria ◽  
Ana R. Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mass Effect ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
River Plume ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Madeira Island ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Land Runoff

The Island Mass Effect has been primarily attributed to nutrient enhancement of waters surrounding oceanic islands due to physical processes, whereas the role of land runoff has seldom been considered. Land runoff can be particularly relevant in mountainous islands, highly susceptible to torrential rainfall that rapidly leads to flash floods. Madeira Island, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is historically known for its flash flood events, when steep streams transport high volumes of water and terrigenous material downstream. A 22-year analysis of satellite data revealed that a recent catastrophic flash flood (20 February 2010) was responsible for the most significant concentration of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and Chlorophyll-a at the coast. In this context, our study aims to understand the impact of the February 2010 flash flood events on coastal waters, by assessing the impact of spatial and temporal variability of wind, precipitation, and river discharges. Two specific flash floods events are investigated in detail (2 and 20 February 2010), which coincided with northeasterly and southwesterly winds, respectively. Given the lack of in situ data documenting these events, a coupled air-sea-land numerical framework was used, including hydrological modeling. The dynamics of the modeled river plumes induced by flash floods were strongly influenced by the wind regimes subsequently affecting coastal circulation, which may help to explain the differences between observed SPM and Chlorophyll-a distributions. Model simulations showed that during northeasterly winds, coastal confinement of the buoyant river plume persisted on the island’s north coast, preventing offshore transport of SPM. This mechanism may have contributed to favorable conditions for phytoplankton growth, as captured by satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a in the northeastern coastal waters. On the island’s south coast, strong ocean currents generated in the eastern island flank promoted strong vertical shear, contributing to vertical mixing. During southwesterly winds, coastal confinement of the plume with strong vertical density gradient was observed on the south side. The switch to eastward winds spread the south river plume offshore, forming a filament of high Chlorophyll-a extending 70 km offshore. Our framework demonstrates a novel methodology to investigate ocean productivity around remote islands with sparse or absent field observations.

scholarly journals The Spatiotemporal Distribution of Flash Floods and Analysis of Partition Driving Forces in Yunnan Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Chongchong Ye ◽  
Weiming Cheng ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Chenghu Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Flash Floods

Flash floods are one of the most serious natural disasters, and have a significant impact on economic development. In this study, we employed the spatiotemporal analysis method to measure the spatial–temporal distribution of flash floods and examined the relationship between flash floods and driving factors in different subregions of landcover. Furthermore, we analyzed the response of flash floods on the economic development by sensitivity analysis. The results indicated that the number of flash floods occurring annually increased gradually from 1949 to 2015, and regions with a high quantity of flash floods were concentrated in Zhaotong, Qujing, Kunming, Yuxi, Chuxiong, Dali, and Baoshan. Specifically, precipitation and elevation had a more significant effect on flash floods in the settlement than in other subregions, with a high r (Pearson’s correlation coefficient) value of 0.675, 0.674, 0.593, 0.519, and 0.395 for the 10 min precipitation in 20-year return period, elevation, 60 min precipitation in 20-year return period, 24 h precipitation in 20-year return period, and 6 h precipitation in 20-year return period, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the Kunming had the highest sensitivity (S = 21.86) during 2000–2005. Based on the research results, we should focus on heavy precipitation events for flash flood prevention and forecasting in the short term; but human activities and ecosystem vulnerability should be controlled over the long term.

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