scholarly journals Earthquake forecasting: a possible solution considering the GPS ionospheric delay

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3263-3273 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. De Agostino ◽  
M. Piras

Abstract. The recent earthquakes in L'Aquila (Italy) and in Japan have dramatically emphasized the problem of natural disasters and their correct forecasting. One of the aims of the research community is to find a possible and reliable forecasting method, considering all the available technologies and tools. Starting from the recently developed research concerning this topic and considering that the number of GPS reference stations around the world is continuously increasing, this study is an attempt to investigate whether it is possible to use GPS data in order to enhance earthquake forecasting. In some cases, ionospheric activity level increases just before to an earthquake event and shows a different behaviour 5–10 days before the event, when the seismic event has a magnitude greater than 4–4.5 degrees. Considering the GPS data from the reference stations located around the L'Aquila area (Italy), an analysis of the daily variations of the ionospheric signal delay has been carried out in order to evaluate a possible correlation between seismic events and unexpected variations of ionospheric activities. Many different scenarios have been tested, in particular considering the elevation angles, the visibility lengths and the time of day (morning, afternoon or night) of the satellites. In this paper, the contribution of the ionospheric impact has been shown: a realistic correlation between ionospheric delay and earthquake can be seen about one week before the seismic event.

Author(s):  
T. Aronova ◽  
G. Aronov ◽  
T. Protasovitskaya ◽  
V. Aronov

. The review of annual seismicity in the territory of Belarus based on the data of two analog and seventeen digital stations is presented. 57 events with Кd=4.6–8.8 are recorded, all of them are located in the southern part of the territory, including the Soligorsk mining area. The maximum seismic energy released in March, August, October and November. The maximum number of earthquakes was observed from July to August and from October to November. The N(K) andΣE functions in 2014 were compared with those within 1983–2013. The number of events in 2014 is 1.34 times more than its average value for previous 31 years. The level of the seismic energy released in 2014 is 2.43 times more than in 2013 and 2.05 times lower than its long-time average value. The distributionof earthquakes by depth intervals showed that the earthquake foci are mostly located in the upper 20 km part of the Earth’s crust. However, the foci of 47 earthquakes are located at depths below 10 km. A slope of the graph showing the recurrence of the events with representative energy classes Кd=6–8 in 2014 was calculated. Its modulus γ=|0.48| is lower than the value γ=|0.5| in 2013. The distribution of all the events in 2014 is represented in real time. Quiet seismic periods and seismic activation periods were determined. The distribution of the seismic events by the hourly intervals showed the periods of the daytime and nighttime increase of the seismic event number. The maximum and minimum values N in the seismic event distribution by the days of the week were determined. The seismicity analysis has shown that the seismic activity level in 2014 was higher than that in 2013, but lower than its long-time average value.


2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 60-61
Author(s):  
Elizabeth M Morris ◽  
Susanna E Kitts-Morgan ◽  
Dawn M Spangler ◽  
Kyle R McLeod ◽  
David L Harmon

Abstract Growing public interest in and use of Cannabidiol (CBD) in companion animals has amplified the need to elucidate potential impacts. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the impact of CBD on daily activity of adult dogs. Twenty-four dogs (18.0 ± 3.4 kg) were utilized in a randomized complete block design with treatments consisting of control, 2 mg CBD/kg BW/d, and 4 mg CBD/kg BW/d split between two treats administered after twice-daily exercise (7:00-9:00 and 17:00-19:00). Four hours each day (10:00-12:00, AM and 13:30-15:30, PM), were designated as time when no persons entered the kennels, with 2 h designated as Quiet Time and the other 2 h as Music Time, where calming music played over speakers. Quiet and Music sessions were randomly allotted to daily AM or PM times. Activity monitors were fitted to dogs’ collars for continuous collection of activity parameters. Data were collected over a 2-wk baseline period to block dogs by activity level (high or low) before randomly assigning dogs within each block to treatments. After 1 wk of treatment adaptation, activity parameters were collected for 2 wk. Data were tested for normality using the UNIVARIATE procedure in SAS before examining differences using the MIXED procedure in SAS, including effects of treatment, day, session (Quiet or Music), time of day (AM or PM), and accompanying interactions. CBD did not alter total activity points (P = 0.9971) or activity duration (P = 0.8776). CBD tended (P = 0.0692) to reduce scratching compared to control. Irrespective of treatment, dogs were more active in PM than AM (P < 0.0001). Regardless of session, dogs receiving 4 mg/kg/d tended (P = 0.0914) to be less active in the PM than control. CBD did not affect activity duration during exercise periods (P = 0.1425), but dogs receiving CBD ran more than control (P = 0.0339). These results indicate that when supplemented up to 4 mg/kg/d, CBD does not negatively impact daily activity levels of dogs.


Author(s):  
Yang Carl Lu ◽  
Holly Krambeck ◽  
Liang Tang

Deployment of an adaptive area traffic control system is expensive; physical sensors require installation, calibration, and regular maintenance. Because of the high level of technical and financial resources required, area traffic control systems found in developing countries often are minimally functioning. In Cebu City, Philippines, for example, the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System was installed before 2000, and fewer than 35% of detectors were still functioning as of January 2015. To address this challenge, a study was designed to determine whether taxi company GPS data are sufficient to evaluate and improve traffic signal timing plans in resource-constrained environments. If this work is successful, the number of physical sensors required to support those systems may be reduced and thereby substantially lower the costs of installation and maintenance. Taxi GPS data provided by a regional taxi-hailing app were used to design and implement methodologies for evaluating the performance of traffic signal timing plans and for deriving updated fixed-dynamic plans, which are fixed plans (with periods based on observable congestion patterns rather than only time of day) iterated regularly until optimization is reached. To date, three rounds of iterations have been conducted to ensure the stability of the proposed signal timings. Results of exploratory analysis indicate that the algorithm is capable of generating reasonable green time splits, but cycle length adjustment must be considered in the future.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline Louise Mair ◽  
Lawrence Hayes ◽  
Amy Campbell ◽  
Duncan Buchan ◽  
Chris Easton ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Just-in-time-adaptive-interventions (JITAIs) provide real-time ‘in the moment’ behaviour change support to people when they need it most. JITAIs could be a viable way to provide personalised physical activity support to older adults in the community. However, it is unclear how feasible it is to remotely deliver a physical activity intervention via a smartphone to older adults, or how acceptable older adults would find a JITAI targeting physical activity in everyday life. OBJECTIVE (1) to describe the development of “JITABug”, a personalised smartphone and activity tracker delivered JITAI designed to support older adults to increase or maintain their physical activity level; (2) to explore the acceptability of JITABug in a free-living setting, and (3) to assess the feasibility of conducting an effectiveness trial of the JITABug intervention. METHODS The intervention development process was underpinned by the Behaviour Change Wheel. The intervention consisted of a wearable activity tracker (Fitbit) and a companion smartphone app (JITABug) which delivered goal setting, planning, reminders, and just-in-time adaptive messages to encourage achievement of personalised physical activity goals. Message delivery was tailored based on time of day, real-time physical activity tracker data, and weather conditions. We tested the feasibility of remotely delivering the JITAI with older adults in a 6-week trial using a mixed-methods approach. Data collection involved assessment of physical activity by accelerometery and activity tracker, self-reported mood and mental wellbeing via ecological momentary assessment, and contextual information on physical activity via voice memos. Feasibility and acceptability outcomes included: (1) recruitment capability and adherence to the intervention; (2) intervention delivery ‘in the wild’; (3) appropriateness of data collection methodology; (4) adverse events and; (5) participant satisfaction. RESULTS Of 46 recruited older adults (aged 56-72 years old), 65% completed the intervention. The intervention was successfully delivered as intended; 27 participants completed the intervention independently, 94% of physical activity messages were successfully delivered, and 99% of Fitbit and 100% of weather data calls were successful. Wrist-worn accelerometer data were obtained from 96% at baseline and 96% at follow up. On average, participants recorded 8/16 (50%) voice memos, 3/8 (38%) mood assessments, and 2/4 (50%) wellbeing assessments via the app. Overall acceptability of the intervention was very good (77% satisfaction). Participant feedback suggested that more diverse and tailored physical activity messages, app usage reminders, technical refinements regarding real-time data syncing, and an improved user interface could improve the intervention and make it more appealing. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that a smartphone delivered JITAI utilizing a wearable activity tracker is an acceptable way to support physical activity in older adults in the community. Overall, the intervention is feasible, however based on user feedback, the JITABug app requires further technical refinements that may enhance usage, engagement, and user satisfaction before moving to effectiveness trials. CLINICALTRIAL Non-Applicable


1971 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harsh K. Gupta ◽  
B. K. Rastogi ◽  
Hari Narain

abstract The analysis of P waves recorded at seismological observatories and seismic arrays at teleseismic distances and strong motion seismographs located at Koyna Dam suggest the Koyna earthquake of December 10 1967 to be a complex multiple event. Six of the events could be identified, and the second and third events are located with respect to the initiation using the Gutenberg sine-curve method at distances of 6 and 17 km due south, the average rupture velocity being 3.4 km/sec. The findings are consistent with the field observations and the different origin times, epicenters and magnitudes reported for the earthquake. Seismic array records are found to be very useful in examining the multiplicity of seismic events.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wang ◽  
Yang Cao

Bus travel time is an important source of data for time of day partition of the bus route. However, in practice, a bus driver may deliberately speed up or slow down on route so as to follow the predetermined timetable. The raw GPS data collected by the GPS device equipped on the bus, as a result, cannot reflect its real operating conditions. To address this concern, this study first develops a method to identify whether there is deliberate speed-up or slow-down movement of a bus. Building upon the relationships between the intersection delay, link travel time, and traffic flow, a recovery method is established for calculating the real bus travel time. Using the dwell time at each stop and the recovered travel time between each of them as the division indexes, a sequential clustering-based time of day partition method is proposed. The effectiveness of the developed method is demonstrated using the data of bus route 63 in Harbin, China. Results show that the partition method can help bus enterprises to design reasonable time of day intervals and significantly improve their level of service.


2012 ◽  
Vol 524-527 ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
Fu Sheng Guo ◽  
Zhao Bin Yan ◽  
Liu Qin Chen

The two early Cambrian seismic events could be found from sedimentary rocks at Peilingjiao section of Kaihua County, Baishi and Fangcun sections of Changshan County in western Zhejiang, except for Jiangshan area. The seismic event at Baishi outcrop can be correlated to the second seismic event at Peilingjiao section. Taking Fangcun as epicenter of the second seismic event, the magnitude of paleoseism in western Zhejiang is about 7~7.6. According to investigation on regional distribution of seismic events, the two seismic activities should be regulated by large Kaihua-Chun’an fault, but unrelated with Jiangshan-Shaoxing fault or Changshan-Xiaoshan fault. However, the formation time of Kaihua-Chun’an fault has not yet been determinate. Based on controlling on Silurian, the possible formation age was inferred to early Paleozoic. The distribution characteristics of seismites indicate that the Kaihua-Chun’an fault was already being active during early Cambrian and seismic activities may be response to Sinian tectonic events in western Zhejiang. By the way of analysis on paleoseismic rhythm, the time interval of the two seismic events in western Zhejiang is less than 5.0 Ma, which may be the result of early frequent activities of Kaihua-Chun’an fault.


2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 711-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Hargreaves

Abstract. A statistical analysis has been made of the incidence of auroral radio absorption events at South Pole, and of its dependence on basic geophysical parameters such as season, time of day, and magnetic activity level. It is found that at low and moderate levels of activity the incidence of events in the winter season is at least twice that in the summer. However, at high activity no events at all occurred during the local summer night, which appears to be explicable as the effect of the magnetotail and the consequent distortion of the magnetosphere when the southern polar region is tilted strongly towards the Sun. Previous results from even higher latitudes show the effect in an even more exaggerated form, in that both the day and night periods of absorption activity exhibit strong seasonal variations.


Author(s):  
Hirohisa Yamakawa ◽  
Hitoshi Muta

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident occurred by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. After that, continuous enhancement of nuclear safety is being required in Japan. The accident of Fukushima was caused by the seismic induced tsunami event, namely, multiple events. The other examples of multiple events due to the seismic event are such as internal fire and internal flooding in the nuclear power plants. In addition, structures, such as a building, and piping might be damaged by the seismic event, which could impact component failure dependently. In order to consider these kinds of events, the development of PRA procedures for multiple events caused by the seismic events will be highly demanded. So, we developed a basic PRA methodology for seismic induced tsunami events using “Direct Quantification of Fault Tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) methodology”. And we verified its applicability through the evaluation.


2015 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. 443-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiming Bie ◽  
Xiaolin Gong ◽  
Zhiyuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Gps Data ◽  

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