scholarly journals On the influence of topographic, geological and cryospheric factors on rock avalanches and rockfalls in high-mountain areas

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Fischer ◽  
R. S. Purves ◽  
C. Huggel ◽  
J. Noetzli ◽  
W. Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Investigation Area ◽  
Rock Avalanches ◽  
Slope Instabilities

Abstract. The ongoing debate about the effects of changes in the high-mountain cryosphere on rockfalls and rock avalanches suggests a need for more knowledge about characteristics and distribution of recent rock-slope instabilities. This paper investigates 56 sites with slope failures between 1900 and 2007 in the central European Alps with respect to their geological and topographical settings and zones of possible permafrost degradation and glacial recession. Analyses of the temporal distribution show an increase in frequency within the last decades. A large proportion of the slope failures (60%) originated from a relatively small area above 3000 m a.s.l. (i.e. 10% of the entire investigation area). This increased proportion of detachment zones above 3000 m a.s.l. is postulated to be a result of a combination of factors, namely a larger proportion of high slope angles, high periglacial weathering due to recent glacier retreat (almost half of the slope failures having occurred in areas with recent deglaciation), and widespread permafrost occurrence. The lithological setting appears to influence volume rather than frequency of a slope failure. However, our analyses show that not only the changes in cryosphere, but also other factors which remain constant over long periods play an important role in slope failures.

Using historical aerial imagery to assess multidecadal kinematics and elevation changes. Application to mountain permafrost in the French Alps.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Cusicanqui ◽  
Antoine Rabatel ◽  
Xavier Bodin ◽  
Christian Vincent ◽  
Emmanuel Thibert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Horizontal Displacement ◽  
Vertical Surface ◽  
Aerial Images ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Mountain Permafrost

<p>Glacial and periglacial environments are highly sensitive to climate change, even more in mountain areas where warming is faster and, as a consequence, perennial features of the cryosphere like glaciers and permafrost have been fast evolving in the last decades. In the European Alps, glaciers retreat and permafrost thawing have led to the destabilization of mountain slopes, threatening human infrastructures and inhabitants. The observation of such changes at decadal scales is often limited to sparse in situ observations.</p><p>Here, we present three study cases of mountain permafrost sites based on a multidisciplinary approach over almost seven decades. The goal is to investigate and quantify morphodynamic changes and understand the causes of these evolutions. We used stereo-photogrammetry techniques to generate orthophotos and (DEMs) from historical aerial images (available, in France since 1940s). From this, we produced diachronic comparison of DEMs to quantify vertical surface changes, as well as feature tracking techniques of multi-temporal digital orthophotos for estimating horizontal displacement rates. Locally, high-resolution datasets (i.e. LiDAR surveys, UAV acquisitions and Pléiades stereo imagery) were also exploited to improve the quality of photogrammetric products. In addition, we combine these results with geophysics (ERT and GPR) to estimate the ice content, geomorphological surveys to describe the complex environments and the relationship with climatic forcing.</p><p>The first study case is the Laurichard rock glacier, where we were able to quantify changes of emergence velocities, fluxes, and volume. Together with an acceleration of surface velocity, important surface lowering have been found over the period 1952-2019, with a striking spatiotemporal reversal of volume balance.</p><p>The second study site is the Tignes glacial and periglacial complex, where the changes of thermokarstic lakes surface were quantified. The results suggest that drainage probably affects the presence and the evolution of the largest thermorkarst. Here too, a significant ice loss was found on the central channel concomitant to an increase in surface velocities.</p><p>The third study site is the Chauvet glacial and periglacial complex where several historical outburst floods are recorded during the 20th century, likely related to the permafrost degradation, the presence of thermokarstic lakes, and an intra-glacial channel. The lateral convergence of ice flow, due to the terrain subsidence caused by the intense melting, may cause the closure of the channel with a subsequent refill of the thermokarstic depression and finally a new catastrophic event.</p><p>Our results highlight the important value of historical aerial photography for having a longer perspective on the evolution of the high mountain cryosphere, thanks to accurate quantification of pluri-annual changes of volume and surface velocity. For instance, we could evidence : (1) a speed-up of the horizontal displacements since the 1990s in comparison with the previous decades; (2) an important surface lowering related to various melting processes (ice-core, thermokarst) for the three study sites; (3) relationships between the observed evolution and the contemporaneous climate warming, with a long-term evolution controlled by the warming of the ground and short-term changes that may relate to snow or precipitation or to the activity of the glacial-periglacial landforms.</p>

scholarly journals Diatom diversity in headwaters influenced by permafrost thawing: First evidence from the Central Italian Alps

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Federica Rotta ◽  
Leonardo Cerasino ◽  
Anna Occhipinti-Ambrogi ◽  
Michela Rogora ◽  
Roberto Seppi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Mountain ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Habitat Features ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Water Ph ◽  
Thawing Rate ◽  
Permafrost Thawing ◽  
Alpine Hydrology

Glacier melting and permafrost thawing are the most evident effects of the current climate change that is strongly affecting high mountain areas, including the European Alps. As the thawing rate of subsurface ice is lower than for glacier ice, it is expected that, while glaciers retreat, an increasing number of Alpine headwaters will become more influenced by permafrost degradation during the 21st century. Despite the expected change in the relative importance of glacier and permafrost in determining Alpine hydrology, studies addressing effects of permafrost thawing on chemical and, especially, biological features of adjacent surface waters are still scarce. The present study contributes to characterise the epilithic and epiphytic diatom diversity in a set of permafrost-fed headwaters in three sub-catchments differing in bedrock lithology of the Italian Central Alps (Trentino Alto-Adige) in relation to water chemistry and habitat features. In addition, it explores chemical and biological differences between permafrost-fed streams and headwaters with no direct contact to permafrost, namely glacier-fed (kryal) and precipitation-/groundwater-fed (rhithral) streams. Permafrost-fed waters showed higher electrical conductivity and enhanced ion concentrations than glacier- and precipitation-fed waters, while concentration of trace elements (e.g. Sr, Ni, Zn, As) were more irregularly distributed among waters of different origin, though they showed a tendency to reach higher levels in permafrost-fed waters. Diatom species richness and diversity were lower in permafrost-fed headwaters, and were principally related to water pH and trace metal concentrations. Epiphytic diatom assemblages were more diverse than epilithic ones, independently from the water origin, while differences in species composition were not sufficient to unequivocally identify a typical diatom composition for the different water types considered in this study.

scholarly journals Analysis of microseismic signals and temperature recordings for rock slope stability investigations in high mountain areas

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2283-2298 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Occhiena ◽  
V. Coviello ◽  
M. Arattano ◽  
M. Chiarle ◽  
U. Morra di Cella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rock Mass ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Rock Slope Stability ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Rock Falls ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Microseismic Activity ◽  
Set Up

Abstract. The permafrost degradation is a probable cause for the increase of rock instabilities and rock falls observed in recent years in high mountain areas, particularly in the Alpine region. The phenomenon causes the thaw of the ice filling rock discontinuities; the water deriving from it subsequently freezes again inducing stresses in the rock mass that may lead, in the long term, to rock falls. To investigate these processes, a monitoring system composed by geophones and thermometers was installed in 2007 at the Carrel hut (3829 m a.s.l., Matterhorn, NW Alps). In 2010, in the framework of the Interreg 2007–2013 Alcotra project no. 56 MASSA, the monitoring system has been empowered and renovated in order to meet project needs. In this paper, the data recorded by this renewed system between 6 October 2010 and 5 October 2011 are presented and 329 selected microseismic events are analysed. The data processing has concerned the classification of the recorded signals, the analysis of their distribution in time and the identification of the most important trace characteristics in time and frequency domain. The interpretation of the results has evidenced a possible correlation between the temperature trend and the event occurrence. The research is still in progress and the data recording and interpretation are planned for a longer period to better investigate the spatial-temporal distribution of microseismic activity in the rock mass, with specific attention to the relation of microseismic activity with temperatures. The overall goal is to verify the possibility to set up an effective monitoring system for investigating the stability of a rock mass under permafrost conditions, in order to supply the researchers with useful data to better understand the relationship between temperature and rock mass stability and, possibly, the technicians with a valid tool for decision-making.

scholarly journals Research advances on climate-induced slope instability in glacier and permafrost high-mountain environments

2010 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Huggel ◽  
L. Fischer ◽  
D. Schneider ◽  
W. Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Slope Instabilities ◽  
Monte Rosa ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. High-mountain areas with glacier and permafrost occurrence are temperature sensitive environments. Climatic changes are, thus, likely to have an effect on slope stability. Several recent events have shown that rock and ice avalanches and related hazards can have severe consequences. For hazard analysis, the processes of slope failure and flow dynamics should therefore be better understood. In this article, recent advances in this field are presented, including high-resolution topographic monitoring of a large Alpine high-mountain flank (Monte Rosa) over the past 50 years and laboratory experiments with rotating drums and numerical modelling. This recent research has revealed important insight into the causes and dynamics of slope instabilities and contributes towards a better understanding of the influence of ice on avalanche dynamics and runout. It is emphasized that high-mountain slope failures need to be viewed from an interdisciplinary perspective, taking a number of process interactions into account.

Recurrent rock avalanches progressively dismantle mountain ridges in the Longmen Shan, China, most recently in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janusz Wasowski ◽  
Maurice McSaveney ◽  
Luca Pisanu ◽  
Vincenzo Del Gaudio ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Ambient Noise ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Rock Avalanche ◽  
Ground Vibration ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Rock Avalanches ◽  
Beichuan County

<p>Large earthquake-triggered landslides, in particular rock avalanches, can have catastrophic consequences. However, the recognition of slopes prone to such failures remains difficult, because slope-specific seismic response depends on many factors including local topography, landforms, structure and internal geology. We address these issues by exploring the case of a rock avalanche of >3 million m<sup>3</sup> triggered by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmen Shan range, China. The failure, denominated Yangjia gully rock avalanche, occurred in Beichuan County (Sichuan Province), one of the areas that suffered the highest shaking intensity and death toll caused by co-seismic landsliding. Even though the Wenchuan earthquake produced tens of large (volume >1 million m<sup>3</sup>) rock avalanches, few studies so far have examined the pre-2008 history of the failed slope or reported on the stratigraphic record of mass-movement deposits exposed along local river courses. The presented case of the Yangjia gully rock avalanche shows the importance of such attempts as they provide information on the recurrence of large slope failures and their associated hazards. Our effort stems from recognition, on 2005 satellite imagery, of topography and morphology indicative of a large, apparently pre-historic slope failure and the associated breached landslide dam, both features closely resembling the forms generated in the catastrophic 2008 earthquake. The follow-up reconstruction recognizes an earlier landslide deposit exhumed from beneath the 2008 Yangjia gully rock avalanche by fluvial erosion since May 2008. We infer a seismic trigger also for the pre-2008 rock avalanche based on the following circumstantial evidence: i) the same source area (valley-facing, terminal portion of a flat-topped, elongated mountain ridge) located within one and a half kilometer of the seismically active Beichuan fault; ii) significant directional amplification of ground vibration, sub-parallel to the failed slope direction, detected via ambient noise measurements on the ridge adjacent to the source area of the 2008 rock avalanche and iii) common depositional and textural features of the two landslide deposits. Then, we show how, through consideration of the broader geomorphic and seismo-tectonic contexts, one can gain insight into the spatial and temporal recurrence of catastrophic slope failures  in Beichuan County and elsewhere in the Longmen Shan. This insight, combined with local-scale geologic and geomorphologic knowledge, may guide selection of suspect slopes for reconnaissance, wide-area ambient noise investigation aimed at discriminating their relative susceptibility to co-seismic catastrophic failures. We indicate the feasibility of such investigations through the example of this study, which uses 3-component velocimeters designed to register low amplitude ground vibration.</p>

scholarly journals Slope Activity Analysis in the Rogun Catchment Area, Tajikistan, using Remote Sensing Techniques

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Jones ◽  
Andrea Manconi ◽  
Alexander Strom
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Hazard Potential ◽  
Slope Instabilities ◽  
Remote Sensing Techniques

<p>The stability and lifetime of construction projects in mountain areas are strongly dependent on local slope activity. Hydropower projects in particular are often affected and endangered by landslide damming and flood wave generation due to slope failures, and thus extensive studies of ground surface instability are vital to assess associated hazards. The Rogun Hydropower Project HPP located in Tajikistan in the Vakhsh – Surkhob River network is currently under construction. The site lies within the seismically active Tien Shan and Pamir Mountain ranges of Central Asia and in particular the Peter the First Range. This region is marked by extreme topography, steep slopes and extensive valley networks and has experienced large and catastrophic slope failures in the past, of which a multitude have been triggered by earthquakes of magnitude M≥4. Co-seismic failures are thus common in the area and present a high geotechnical hazard; however, to date no information on active slope instabilities in its catchment area exists.</p><p>Here we present an inventory of slope instabilities in the Rogun Dam catchment area based on optical and synthetic aperture radar differential interferometry (DInSAR) remote sensing techniques. Sentinel-1 multi–temporal differential interferograms are generated for summer periods of 2016 – 2018 to detect surface displacements. Slope velocities are estimated based on a comparison between differential interferograms, while landslide types are identified based on a geomorphological classification. A likelihood analysis is developed to understand the state of activity of slopes and provide a semi-quantitative confidence thereof. The collected data is subsequently integrated to perform spatial and statistical analyses in order to perform a proximity analysis, assess a co-seismic link and evaluate the damming hazard potential to the Rogun HPP. Results show that a clear majority of detected features are located within 10 km of major faults and in zones of high peak ground acceleration, indicating a potential seismic influence or triggering. Some active slopes show an increase in surface displacement after a particular earthquake event and equally suggest a potential link. Moreover, we developed a damming hazard analysis for slopes detected as active in Sentinel-1 differential interferograms, considering the likelihood of movements, their distance to rivers and faults, as well as estimated volume and velocity per year. The results indicate that a total of 29.6 % of all features constitute a high damming hazard potential in case of catastrophic failure, with 4.5 % located within 1 km of the Rogun Dam reservoir. Although many potential sites are not directly on the slopes rising above the future reservoir, hazardous locations in the catchment upstream pose a threat due to possibility of significant outburst floods in case of the dammed lake outburst.</p>

The Pretare-Piedilama rock block deposit: evidence of a further case of quaternary rock avalanche in Central Apennines, Italy 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Luisa Putignano ◽  
Emiliano Di Luzio ◽  
Luca Schilirò ◽  
Andrea Pietrosante ◽  
Salvatore Ivo Giano
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Rock Slope ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Rock Avalanche ◽  
Rock Block ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Central Apennines ◽  
Massive Rock ◽  
Rock Avalanches

<p>In the last two decades large clastic deposits in Central Apennines with specific morphological and sedimentological features have been interpreted as the result of Quaternary rock avalanche events (e.g., Di Luzio et al., 2004; Bianchi Fasani et al., 2014; Schilirò et al., 2019; Antonielli et al., 2020). The analysis of such deposits, that are located within intermontane basins and narrow valleys bounded by high mountain ridges, have improved the knowledge about this kind of massive rock slope failures, also clarifying their relationship with Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformations.</p><p>The present study then describes a multidisciplinary analysis carried out on a huge rock block deposit which crops out within the Pretare-Piedilama Valley, in the piedmont junction area of the Sibillini Mountain range (Central Italy), where Mesozoic basinal carbonates overthrust Miocene foredeep deposits.</p><p>Specifically, we performed sedimentological, stratigraphical and morphometric analyses on the clastic deposit; results support the interpretation of the event as a rock avalanche body. The accumulation area shows a T-like shape with a wide, E-W-oriented, proximal part and a N-S channelization in the central and lower sectors. The evidence suggests erosional events and tectonics as controlling factors on rock flow deposition. In this respect, the area was involved in the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence and was tectonically active during Quaternary times<strong> </strong>(Tortorici et al., 2009).</p><p>As regards on the deposit genesis, considering the geometric characteristics of a sub-rectangular detachment area located on the southern edge of the Sibillini Range, an original mechanism of rockslide failure involving about 8·10<sup>6</sup>m<sup>3</sup> of Early Jurassic limestone was inferred. Here, the post-failure geomorphic features behind the main scarp are considered for the evaluation of hazard conditions.</p><p>Finally, well-log analysis of the clastic sequence filling the Pretare-Piedilama Valley evidenced additional Quaternary landslide events occurred before the rock avalanche, thus testifying to a long history of large slope instabilities in the area controlling the landscape development.</p><p> </p><p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p><p> </p><ul><li>Antonielli B., Della Seta M., Esposito C., Scarascia-Mugnozza G., Schilirò L., Spadi M., Tallini M. (2020). Quaternary rock avalanches in the Apennines: New data and interpretation of the huge clastic deposit of the L'Aquila Basin (central Italy). Geomorphology, 361, 107-194. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107194.</li> <li>Bianchi Fasani G., Di Luzio E., Esposito C., Evans S.G., Scarascia-Mugnozza G. (2014). Quaternary, catastrophic rock avalanches in the Central Apennines (Italy): relationships with inherited tectonic features, gravity-driven deformations and the geodynamic frame. Geomorphology, 21, 22–42. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.12.027.</li> <li>Di Luzio E., Bianchi-Fasani G., Saroli M., Esposito C., Cavinato G.P., Scarascia-Mugnozza G. (2004). Massive rock slope failure in the central Apennines (Italy): the case of the Campo di Giove rock avalanche. Bullettin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 63, 1-12. doi:10.1007/s10064-003-0212-7.</li> <li>Schilirò L., Esposito C., De Blasio F.V., Scarascia-Mugnozza G. (2019). <strong>Sediment texture in rock avalanche deposits: insights from field and experimental observations. </strong>Landslides, 16, 1629-1643. doi: 10.1007/s10346-019-01210-x.</li> <li>Tortorici G., Romagnoli G., Grassi S. et al. (2019). Quaternary negative tectonic inversion along the Sibillini Mts. thrust zone: the Arquata del Tronto case history (Central Italy). Environ Earth Sci 78:<strong> </strong>37. doi:10.1007/s12665-018-8021-2.</li> </ul>

scholarly journals Effects of free-flight activities on wildlife: a poorly understood issue in conservation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Jorge Tobajas ◽  
Francisco Guil ◽  
Antoni Margalida
Keyword(s):  
Roe Deer ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Feeding Time ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Free Flight ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Bearded Vulture ◽  
Cinereous Vulture ◽  
The Impact

Summary Recreational activities may have negative effects on wildlife, but there are very few studies specifically on the effects of free-flight activities (i.e., hang-gliders, paragliders and their powered derivatives) on wildlife. We review the existing scientific studies on this issue in order to identify the gaps in knowledge at the taxonomic-group level in order to develop guidelines to minimize the impacts of recreational free-flight on wildlife. We found that studies mainly concerned the effects on four ungulate species (chamois, red deer, roe deer and Alpine ibex) and, to a lesser extent, on raptors such as the golden eagle and two vulture species (bearded vulture and cinereous vulture). The studies have generally been carried out in high mountain areas (e.g., the European Alps). Data show that free-flight activities create disturbances and have negative effects on wildlife, resulting in increased energy expenditure, reduction of feeding time, abandonment of feeding areas, reduced breeding output, loss of body condition, increased predation risk and harm from flight accidents. However, the lack of studies on many species and areas, along with the small number of long-term studies, prevents proper assessment of the current situation regarding the impact of this activity on wildlife. We provide recommendations to improve the regulation of this activity.

A high-resolution multi-phase thermo-geophysical permafrost rock model to verify long-term ERT monitoring at the Zugspitze (German/Austrian Alps)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanja Schroeder ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Electrical Resistivity ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Thermal Evolution ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Complex Topography ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Permafrost Rock

<div> <p><span>In the context of climate change, permafrost degradation is a key variable in understanding rock slope failures in high mountain areas. Permafrost degradation imposes a variety of environmental, economic and humanitarian impacts on infrastructure and people in high mountain areas. Therefore, new high-quality monitoring and modelling strategies are needed.</span></p> </div><div> <p><span>We developed a new, numerical, thermo-geophysical rock permafrost model (TGRPM) to assess spatial-temporal variations of the ground thermal regime in steep permafrost rock walls on the basis of 13-years of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) monitoring of permafrost at the Zugspitze. TGRPM is a simple to understand and workable numerical 2D MATLAB-model, which is adaptable to different topographic and sub-surface conditions, and further relies on a minimum of input-data to assess the surface energy balance and the ground thermal regime. It simulates the thermal response for permafrost rock walls, including their complex topography, to climate forcing over multiple years. It aims to assess seasonal and long-term permafrost development in steep alpine rock walls, as well as serving as a straightforward calculation routine, which is solely based on physical processes and does not require any fitting of certain parameters. </span></p> </div><div> <p><span>At first, the model was tested against direct temperature measurements from the LfU-borehole at the Zugspitze summit to prove its accuracy. Then, it is run against a 13-year ERT data-set from the Zugspitze Kammstollen to validate the ERT measurements.</span></p> </div><div> <p><span>Here, we show the first thermo-geophysical model referencing thermal evolution in a permafrost rock wall with temperature-calibrated ERT. The TGRPM successfully computes the thermal evolution within the Zugspitze mountain ridge from a 2D coupled energy balance and heat conduction scheme in complex topography. It furthermore validates the temperature-resistivity relationship by Krautblatter et al. (2010) for natural rock walls reaching a correlation of 85 to 95 % between measured, ERT-derived and modelled temperatures.</span></p> </div><div><span>Krautblatter, M., Verleysdonk, S., Flores-Orozco, A. & Kemna, A. (2010): Temperature-calibrated imaging of seasonal changes in permafrost rock walls by quantitative electrical resistivity </span><span>tomography </span>(Zugspitze, German/Austrian Alps). <em>J. Geophys. Res. </em>115: F02003.</div>

scholarly journals Machine Learning: A Novel Approach to Predicting Slope Instabilities

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Upasna Chandarana Kothari ◽  
Moe Momayez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
Active Monitoring ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Geomechanical Analysis ◽  
Failure Predictions ◽  
Slope Instabilities

Geomechanical analysis plays a major role in providing a safe working environment in an active mine. Geomechanical analysis includes but is not limited to providing active monitoring of pit walls and predicting slope failures. During the analysis of a slope failure, it is essential to provide a safe prediction, that is, a predicted time of failure prior to the actual failure. Modern-day monitoring technology is a powerful tool used to obtain the time and deformation data used to predict the time of slope failure. This research aims to demonstrate the use of machine learning (ML) to predict the time of slope failures. Twenty-two datasets of past failures collected from radar monitoring systems were utilized in this study. A two-layer feed-forward prediction network was used to make multistep predictions into the future. The results show an 86% improvement in the predicted values compared to the inverse velocity (IV) method. Eighty-two percent of the failure predictions made using ML method fell in the safe zone. While 18% of the predictions were in the unsafe zone, all the unsafe predictions were within five minutes of the actual failure time, all practical purposes making the entire set of predictions safe and reliable.

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