scholarly journals The 20 February 2010 Madeira flash-floods: synoptic analysis and extreme rainfall assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 715-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fragoso ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
J. G. Pinto ◽  
S. Lopes ◽  
A. Lopes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Flood Dynamics

Abstract. This study aims to characterise the rainfall exceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 February 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic incidence, contributing to understand the flash-flood dynamics and the type and spatial distribution of the associated impacts. The exceptionality of the rainstorm is further confirmed by the return period associated with the daily precipitation registered at the two long-term record stations, with 146.9 mm observed in the city of Funchal and 333.8 mm on the mountain top, corresponding to an estimated return period of approximately 290 yr and 90 yr, respectively. Furthermore, the synoptic associated situation responsible for the flash-floods is analysed using different sources of information, e.g., weather charts, reanalysis data, Meteosat images and radiosounding data, with the focus on two main issues: (1) the dynamical conditions that promoted such anomalous humidity availability over the Madeira region on 20 February 2010 and (2) the uplift mechanism that induced deep convection activity.

scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1517-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain-gauge-derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps (548 km2), which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 700 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data are an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedance thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall in the Mediterranean: What Can We Learn from Observations?

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 906-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Rebora ◽  
L. Molini ◽  
E. Casella ◽  
A. Comellas ◽  
E. Fiori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Ground Effects

Abstract Flash floods induced by extreme rainfall events represent one of the most life-threatening phenomena in the Mediterranean. While their catastrophic ground effects are well documented by postevent surveys, the extreme rainfall events that generate them are still difficult to observe properly. Being able to collect observations of such events will help scientists to better understand and model these phenomena. The recent flash floods that hit the Liguria region (Italy) between the end of October and beginning of November 2011 give us the opportunity to use the measurements available from a large number of sensors, both ground based and spaceborne, to characterize these events. In this paper, the authors analyze the role of the key ingredients (e.g., unstable air masses, moist low-level jets, steep orography, and a slow-evolving synoptic pattern) for severe rainfall processes over complex orography. For the two Ligurian events, this role has been analyzed through the available observations (e.g., Meteosat Second Generation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Italian Radar Network mosaic, and the Italian rain gauge network observations). The authors then address the possible role of sea–atmosphere interactions and propose a characterization of these events in terms of their predictability.

Finding homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall in reanalysis data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjanne Zander ◽  
Frederiek Sperna Weiland ◽  
Albrecht Weerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Homogeneous Regions ◽  
Rainfall Statistics

<p>In this study a methodology is developed and tested to delineate homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall around a city of interest using meteorological indices from reanalysis data.</p><p>Scenarios of future climate change established with numerical climate models are well-established tools to help inform climate adaptation policy. The latest generation of regional climate models is now employed at a grid resolution of 2 to 3 kilometers. This enables the simulation of convection; whereby intensive convective rainfall is better represented (Kendon et al., 2017). However, the associated large computational burden limits the simulation length, which poses a challenge for estimating future rainfall statistics.</p><p>Rainfall return periods are a commonly used indicator in the planning, design and evaluation of urban water systems and urban water management. In order to estimate potential future rainfall for return periods larger than the length of the simulation length, regional frequency analysis (RFA) can be applied (Li et al., 2017).  For applying RFA, time series from nearby locations are pooled, the locations considered should fall within the same hydroclimatic climate. This is a region which can be assumed statistically homogeneous for extreme rainfall (Hosking & Wallis, 2009).</p><p>Traditionally, these homogeneous regions are defined on geographical region characteristics and rain gauge statistics (Hosking & Wallis, 2009).  To make the methodology less dependent on rain gauge record availability, Gabriele & Chiaravalloti (2013) used meteorological indices derived from reanalysis data to delineate the homogeneous regions.</p><p>Here we evaluate the methodology to delineate homogeneous regions around cities. Meteorological indices are calculated from the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset (Hersbach et al., 2018) for days with extreme rainfall. The variation herein is used as a measure of homogeneity. The derived homogeneous regions will in future work be used for data pooling of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations datasets to enable the derivation of future extreme rainfall statistics.</p><p>This study is embedded in the EU H2020 project EUCP (EUropean Climate Prediction system) (https://www.eucp-project.eu/), which aims to develop a regional climate prediction and projection system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe, to support climate adaptation and mitigation decisions for the coming decades.</p><p>References:</p><p>Gabriele, S., & Chiaravalloti, F. (2013). “Searching regional rainfall homogeneity using atmospheric fields”. Advances in Water Resources, 53, 163–174. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.11.002</p><p>Hersbach, H., de Rosnay, P., Bell, B., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., …, Zuo, H. (2018). “Operational global reanalysis: progress, future directions and synergies with NWP”, ECMWF.</p><p>Hosking, J. R. M., & Wallis, J. R. (2009). “Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments”. The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780511529443.</p><p>Kendon, E. J., Ban, N., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., … Wilkinson, J. M. (2017). “Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?” BAMS, 98(1), 79–93. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1</p><p> Li, J., Evans, J., Johnson, F., & Sharma, A. (2017). “A comparison of methods for estimating climate change impact on design rainfall using a high-resolution RCM.” Journal of Hydrology, 547(Supplement C), 413–427. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.019</p>

scholarly journals The Spatiotemporal Distribution of Flash Floods and Analysis of Partition Driving Forces in Yunnan Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Chongchong Ye ◽  
Weiming Cheng ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Chenghu Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Flash Floods

Flash floods are one of the most serious natural disasters, and have a significant impact on economic development. In this study, we employed the spatiotemporal analysis method to measure the spatial–temporal distribution of flash floods and examined the relationship between flash floods and driving factors in different subregions of landcover. Furthermore, we analyzed the response of flash floods on the economic development by sensitivity analysis. The results indicated that the number of flash floods occurring annually increased gradually from 1949 to 2015, and regions with a high quantity of flash floods were concentrated in Zhaotong, Qujing, Kunming, Yuxi, Chuxiong, Dali, and Baoshan. Specifically, precipitation and elevation had a more significant effect on flash floods in the settlement than in other subregions, with a high r (Pearson’s correlation coefficient) value of 0.675, 0.674, 0.593, 0.519, and 0.395 for the 10 min precipitation in 20-year return period, elevation, 60 min precipitation in 20-year return period, 24 h precipitation in 20-year return period, and 6 h precipitation in 20-year return period, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the Kunming had the highest sensitivity (S = 21.86) during 2000–2005. Based on the research results, we should focus on heavy precipitation events for flash flood prevention and forecasting in the short term; but human activities and ecosystem vulnerability should be controlled over the long term.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Orographically Driven Banded Precipitation to the Rainfall Climatology of a Mediterranean Region

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 2235-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angélique Godart ◽  
Sandrine Anquetin ◽  
Etienne Leblois ◽  
Jean-Dominique Creutin
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Flow ◽  
Rainfall Climatology

AbstractStudies carried out worldwide show that topography influences rainfall climatology. As in most western Mediterranean regions, the mountainous Cévennes–Vivarais area in France regularly experiences extreme precipitation that may lead to devastating flash floods. Global warming could further aggravate this situation, but this possibility cannot be confirmed without first improving the understanding of the role of topography in the regional climate and, in particular, for extreme rainfall events. This paper focuses on organized banded rainfall and evaluates its contribution to the rainfall climatology of this region. Stationary rainfall systems made up of such bands are triggered and enhanced by small-scale interactions between the atmospheric flow and the relief. Rainbands are associated with shallow convection and are also present in deep-convection events for specific flux directions. Such precipitation patterns are difficult to observe both with operational weather radar networks, which are not designed to observe low-level convection within complex terrain, and with rain gauge networks, for which gauge spacing is typically larger than the bandwidth. A weather class of banded orographic shallow-convection events is identified, and the contribution of such events to annual or seasonal precipitation over the region is assessed. Moreover, a method is also proposed to quantify the contribution of banded convection during specific deep-convection events. It is shown that even though these orographically driven banded precipitation events produce moderate precipitation intensities they have long durations and therefore represent a significant amount of the rainfall climatology of the region, producing up to 40% of long-term total precipitation at certain locations.

scholarly journals Dynamical Insights into Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (9) ◽  
pp. 2983-3009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik R. Nielsen ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Gradient Force ◽  
Pressure Gradient Force ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Vertical Accelerations

Abstract In some prominent extreme precipitation and flash flood events, radar and rain gauge observations have suggested that the heaviest short-term rainfall accumulations (up to 177 mm h−1) were associated with supercells or mesovortices embedded within larger convective systems. In this research, we aim to identify the influence that rotation has on the storm-scale processes associated with heavy precipitation. Numerical model simulations conducted herein were inspired by a rainfall event that occurred in central Texas in October 2015 where the most extreme rainfall accumulations were collocated with meso-β-scale vortices. Five total simulations were performed to test the sensitivity of precipitation processes to rotation. A control simulation, based on a wind profile from the aforementioned event, was compared with two experiments with successively weaker low-level shear. With greater environmental low-level shear, more precipitation fell, in both a point-maximum and an area-averaged sense. Intense, rotationally induced low-level vertical accelerations associated with the dynamic nonlinear perturbation vertical pressure gradient force were found to enhance the low- to midlevel updraft strength and total vertical mass flux and allowed access to otherwise inhibited sources of moisture and CAPE in the higher-shear simulations. The dynamical accelerations, which increased with the intensity of the low-level shear, dominated over buoyant accelerations in the low levels and were responsible for inducing more intense low-level updrafts that were sustained despite a stable boundary layer.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically-triggered earthquake swarms associated with storm Alex

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Chmiel ◽  
Maxime Godano ◽  
Marco Piantini ◽  
Pierre Brigode ◽  
Florent Gimbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Template Matching ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Peak Frequency ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Maritime Alps ◽  
Power Peak ◽  
Flood Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. On October 2, 2020, the Maritime Alps in southern France were struck by the devastating storm Alex that caused locally more than 600 mm of rain in less than 24 hours. The extreme rainfall and flooding destroyed regional rain and stream gauges. That hinders our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of rainfall-runoff processes during the storm. Here, we show that seismological observations from permanent seismic stations constrain these processes at a catchment scale. The analysis of seismic power, peak frequency, and backazimuth provide us with the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves associated with bedload-dominated phases of the flood on the Vésubie river. Moreover, the combined short-term average to long-term average ratio and template matching earthquake detection reveal that 114 local earthquakes between local magnitude ML = −0.5 and ML = 2 were triggered by the hydrological loading and/or the resulting in-situ underground pore pressure increase. This study shows the impact of storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and deep layer processes and paves the way to future works that can reveal further details of these processes.

scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the Southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 757-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain gauge derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps, which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 850 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data is an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedence thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

Which event produces the largest flash flood? Considering rainfall characteristics, initial soil moisture, retention and run-on infiltration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Weiler ◽  
Hannes Leistert ◽  
Andreas Steinbrich
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil

<p>Local heavy precipitation regularly causes great damage resulting from flash floods in small catchments. Appropriate discharge records are usually unavailable to derive an extreme value statistics and regionalization approaches predicting peak discharge from discharge records of larger basins cannot consider the small-scale effects and local processes. In addition, forecasting flash floods from rainfall forecast requires to identify the event conditions under which a catchment is most prone to trigger flash floods. Therefore, factors influencing runoff formation and concentration need to be identified based on catchment characteristics in order to predict flood hydrographs, geomorphic processes and flood inundation.</p><p>We have developed a framework depending on the joint probability of soil moisture and rainfall and used the distributed, processed-based rainfall-runoff model RoGeR to predict the spatial explicit probability of soil moisture and linking this to overland-flow and subsurface flow generation assuming different scenarios of soil moisture and rainfall characteristics. Selected combinations result in a joint probability with a specified return period (e.g. 100 year), but are based on different probabilities for rainfall amount, duration and initial soil moisture. From this, the combination of a precipitation event and initial soil moisture condition can be determined which generates the largest runoff generation. In addition, we found, that accounting for the spatially and temporally controlled superimposition of runoff formation and runoff concentration, including the possible infiltration of overland flow (run-on infiltration) along the flow path and the retention in depression can have considerable influence on modelled peak discharge and discharge volume for a given catchment. For this purpose, various methods were developed and tested considering the effects of run-on infiltration and retention, from complex 2D hydraulic models coupled with RoGeR to simpler approaches considering run-on infiltration only locally or based on the difference between actual and potential infiltration. These approaches were tested in different catchments with different soils, geologies and land use. Also, the sensitiviy of surface roughness was considered.</p><p>We developed an interactive spatial explicit method, which combines the joint probability of soil moisture and rainfall for runoff formation with hydraulic assumptions to determine runoff concentration and thus the corresponding design hydrographs and the specific conditions a catchment can trigger flash floods. This information can on the one side help to generate flash flood risk maps, but should also be considered in order to provide adequate catchment specific information for heavy precipitation risk management. We could clearly demonstrate that only the combined consideration of factors affecting flood formation and concentration and its implementation into a statistical framework allows to predict floods for a specific return period (which is not equal to the return period of precipitation) for small catchments where different runoff generation mechanisms occur simultaneously.</p>

scholarly journals Recent Advances in Real-Time Pluvial Flash Flood Forecasting

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Zanchetta ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Recent years have witnessed considerable developments in multiple fields with the potential to enhance our capability of forecasting pluvial flash floods, one of the most costly environmental hazards in terms of both property damage and loss of life. This work provides a summary and description of recent advances related to insights on atmospheric conditions that precede extreme rainfall events, to the development of monitoring systems of relevant hydrometeorological parameters, and to the operational adoption of weather and hydrological models towards the prediction of flash floods. With the exponential increase of available data and computational power, most of the efforts are being directed towards the improvement of multi-source data blending and assimilation techniques, as well as assembling approaches for uncertainty estimation. For urban environments, in which the need for high-resolution simulations demands computationally expensive systems, query-based approaches have been explored for the timely retrieval of pre-simulated flood inundation forecasts. Within the concept of the Internet of Things, the extensive deployment of low-cost sensors opens opportunities from the perspective of denser monitoring capabilities. However, different environmental conditions and uneven distribution of data and resources usually leads to the adoption of site-specific solutions for flash flood forecasting in the context of early warning systems.

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