scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1517-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain-gauge-derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps (548 km2), which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 700 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data are an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedance thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the Southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 757-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain gauge derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps, which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 850 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data is an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedence thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

Choose you own scientific experiment: Triggering debris flows and flash floods

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thea Turkington
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
The Other ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Scientific Experiment

Landslides and flash floods result in many fatalities around the globe. Understanding what triggers these events is therefore vital, although how to approach this problem is not straight forward. After background information for the experiment and some guidelines, two options are presented to learn more about the triggers of debris flows: (A) using rainfall or (B) the atmospheric conditions. You can then choose the option that appears more useful and interesting to you (you can always go back and read the other experiment afterwards). The article then ends with a reflection on the results.

scholarly journals The 20 February 2010 Madeira flash-floods: synoptic analysis and extreme rainfall assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 715-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fragoso ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
J. G. Pinto ◽  
S. Lopes ◽  
A. Lopes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Flood Dynamics

Abstract. This study aims to characterise the rainfall exceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 February 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic incidence, contributing to understand the flash-flood dynamics and the type and spatial distribution of the associated impacts. The exceptionality of the rainstorm is further confirmed by the return period associated with the daily precipitation registered at the two long-term record stations, with 146.9 mm observed in the city of Funchal and 333.8 mm on the mountain top, corresponding to an estimated return period of approximately 290 yr and 90 yr, respectively. Furthermore, the synoptic associated situation responsible for the flash-floods is analysed using different sources of information, e.g., weather charts, reanalysis data, Meteosat images and radiosounding data, with the focus on two main issues: (1) the dynamical conditions that promoted such anomalous humidity availability over the Madeira region on 20 February 2010 and (2) the uplift mechanism that induced deep convection activity.

scholarly journals More frequent flash flood events and extreme precipitation favouring atmospheric conditions in temperate regions of Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Meyer ◽  
Malte Neuper ◽  
Luca Mathias ◽  
Erwin Zehe ◽  
Laurent Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. In recent years, flash floods repeatedly occurred in temperate regions of central western Europe. Unlike in Mediterranean catchments, this flooding behaviour is unusual. In the past, and especially in the 1990s, floods were characterized by predictable, slowly rising water levels during winter and driven by westerly atmospheric fluxes (Pfister et al., 2004). The intention of this study is to link the recent occurrence of flash floods in central western Europe to extreme precipitation and specific atmospheric conditions to identify the cause for this apparent shift. Therefore, we hypothesise that an increase in extreme precipitation events has subsequently led to an increase in the occurrence of flash flood events in central western Europe and all that being caused by a change in the occurrence of flash flood favouring atmospheric conditions. To test this hypothesis, we compiled data on flash floods in central western Europe and selected precipitation events above 40 mm h−1 from radar data (RADOLAN, DWD). Moreover, we identified proxy parameters representative for flash flood favouring atmospheric conditions from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. High specific humidity in the lower troposphere (q ≥ 0.004 kg kg−1), sufficient latent instability (CAPE ≥ 100 J kg−1) and weak deep-layer wind shear (DLS ≤ 10 m s−1) proved to be characteristic for long-lasting intense rainfall that can potentially trigger flash floods. These atmospheric parameters, as well as the flash flood and precipitation events were then analysed using linear models. Thereby we found significant increases in atmospheric moisture contents and increases in atmospheric instability. Parameters representing the motion and organisation of convective systems occurred slightly more often or remained unchanged in the time period from 1981–2020. Moreover, a trend in the occurrence of flash floods was confirmed. The number of precipitation events, their maximum 5-minute intensities as well as their hourly sums were however characterized by large inter-annual variations and no trends could be identified between 2002–2020. This study therefore shows that the link from atmospheric conditions via precipitation to flash floods cannot be traced down in an isolated way. The complexity of interactions is likely higher and future analyses should include other potentially relevant factors such as intra-annual precipitation patterns or catchment specific parameters.

scholarly journals Learning Case Study of a Shallow-Water Model to Assess an Early-Warning System for Fast Alpine Muddy-Debris-Flow

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 750
Author(s):  
Antonio Pasculli ◽  
Jacopo Cinosi ◽  
Laura Turconi ◽  
Nicola Sciarra
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Processing Unit

The current climate change could lead to an intensification of extreme weather events, such as sudden floods and fast flowing debris flows. Accordingly, the availability of an early-warning device system, based on hydrological data and on both accurate and very fast running mathematical-numerical models, would be not only desirable, but also necessary in areas of particular hazard. To this purpose, the 2D Riemann–Godunov shallow-water approach, solved in parallel on a Graphical-Processing-Unit (GPU) (able to drastically reduce calculation time) and implemented with the RiverFlow2D code (version 2017), was selected as a possible tool to be applied within the Alpine contexts. Moreover, it was also necessary to identify a prototype of an actual rainfall monitoring network and an actual debris-flow event, beside the acquisition of an accurate numerical description of the topography. The Marderello’s basin (Alps, Turin, Italy), described by a 5 × 5 m Digital Terrain Model (DTM), equipped with five rain-gauges and one hydrometer and the muddy debris flow event that was monitored on 22 July 2016, were identified as a typical test case, well representative of mountain contexts and the phenomena under study. Several parametric analyses, also including selected infiltration modelling, were carried out in order to individuate the best numerical values fitting the measured data. Different rheological options, such as Coulomb-Turbulent-Yield and others, were tested. Moreover, some useful general suggestions, regarding the improvement of the adopted mathematical modelling, were acquired. The rapidity of the computational time due to the application of the GPU and the comparison between experimental data and numerical results, regarding both the arrival time and the height of the debris wave, clearly show that the selected approaches and methodology can be considered suitable and accurate tools to be included in an early-warning system, based at least on simple acoustic and/or light alarms that can allow rapid evacuation, for fast flowing debris flows.

scholarly journals Impact of Topography and Rainfall Intensity on the Accuracy of IMERG Precipitation Estimates in an Arid Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Mohammed T. Mahmoud ◽  
Safa A. Mohammed ◽  
Mohamed A. Hamouda ◽  
Mohamed M. Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Detection Accuracy ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Light Rain ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Data Gaps ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Evaluation Techniques

The influence of topographical characteristics and rainfall intensity on the accuracy of satellite precipitation estimates is of importance to the adoption of satellite data for hydrological applications. This study evaluates the three GPM IMERG V05B products over the arid country of Saudi Arabia. Statistical indices quantifying the performance of IMERG products were calculated under three evaluation techniques: seasonal-based, topographical, and rainfall intensity-based. Results indicated that IMERG products have the capability to detect seasons with the highest precipitation values (spring) and seasons with the lowest precipitation (summer). Moreover, results showed that IMERG products performed well under various rainfall intensities, particularly under light rain, which is the most common rainfall in arid regions. Furthermore, IMERG products exhibited high detection accuracy over moderate elevations, whereas it had poor performance over coastal and mountainous regions. Overall, the results confirmed that the performance of the final-run product surpassed the near-real-time products in terms of consistency and errors. IMERG products can improve temporal resolution and play a significant role in filling data gaps in poorly gauged regions. However, due to the errors in IMERG products, it is recommended to use sub-daily rain gauge data in satellite calibration for better rainfall estimation over arid and semiarid regions.

scholarly journals Comparison of length and dynamics of wood pieces in streams covered with coniferous and broadleaf forests mapped using orthophotos acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruka Tsunetaka ◽  
Slim Mtibaa ◽  
Shiho Asano ◽  
Takashi Okamoto ◽  
Ushio Kurokawa
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Wood Piece ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Landslides And Debris Flows

AbstractAs wood pieces supplied by landslides and debris flows are one of the main components of ecological and geomorphic systems, the importance of quantifying the dimensions of the wood pieces is evident. However, the low accessibility of disturbed channels after debris flows generally impedes accurate and quick wood-piece investigations. Thus, remote-sensing measurements for wood pieces are necessitated. Focusing on sub-watersheds in coniferous and broadleaf forests in Japan (the CF and BF sites, respectively), we measured the lengths of wood pieces supplied by landslides (> 0.2 m length and > 0.03 m diameter) from orthophotos acquired using a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The measurement accuracy was analyzed by comparing the lengths derived from the UAV method with direct measurements. The landslides at the CF and BF sites were triggered by extremely heavy rainfalls in 2017 and 2018, respectively. UAV flights were operated during February and September 2019 at the CF site and during November 2018 and December 2019 at the BF site. Direct measurements of wood pieces were carried out on the date of the respective second flight date in each site. When both ends of a wood piece are satisfactorily extracted from an orthophoto acquired by the UAV, the wood-piece lengths at the CF site can be measured with an accuracy of approximately ±0.5 m. At the BF site, most of the extracted lengths were shorter than the directly measured lengths, probably because the complex structures of the root wad and tree crown reduced the visibility. Most wood pieces were discharged from landslide scars at the BF site, but at the CF site, approximately 750 wood pieces remained in the landslide scars approximately 19 months after the landslide occurrence. The number of wood pieces in the landslide scars of the CF site increased with increasing landslide area, suggesting that some wood pieces can be left even if large landslides occur. The lengths and locations of the entrapped wood pieces at both sites were not significantly changed between the two UAV flight dates. However, during this period, the rainfall intensities around the CF site measured by the closest rain-gauge of the Japan Meteorological Agency reached their second highest values from 1976 to 2019, which exceeded the 30-year return period. This suggests that most of the entrapped wood pieces rarely migrated even under intense rainfall.

Observations and Analyses of the 9 January 2018 Debris-Flow Disaster, Santa Barbara County, California

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-27
Author(s):  
Jeremy T. Lancaster ◽  
Brian J. Swanson ◽  
Stefani G. Lukashov ◽  
Nina S. Oakley ◽  
Jacob B. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Santa Barbara ◽  
Debris Removal ◽  
Fire Debris ◽  
Santa Barbara County ◽  
Coastal Land

ABSTRACT The post–Thomas Fire debris flows of 9 January 2018 killed 23 people, damaged 558 structures, and caused severe damage to infrastructure in Montecito and Carpinteria, CA. U.S. Highway 101 was closed for 13 days, significantly impacting transportation and commerce in the region. A narrow cold frontal rain band generated extreme rainfall rates within the western burn area, triggering runoff-driven debris flows that inundated 5.6 km2 of coastal land in eastern Santa Barbara County. Collectively, this series of debris flows is comparable in magnitude to the largest documented post-fire debris flows in the state and cost over a billion dollars in debris removal and damages to homes and infrastructure. This study summarizes observations and analyses on the extent and magnitude of inundation areas, debris-flow velocity and volume, and sources of debris-flow material on the south flank of the Santa Ynez Mountains. Additionally, we describe the atmospheric conditions that generated intense rainfall and use precipitation data to compare debris-flow source areas with spatially associated peak 15 minute rainfall amounts. We then couple the physical characterization of the event with a compilation of debris-flow damages to summarize economic impacts.

The Three-Cornered Hat Method for Estimating Error Variances of Three or More Atmospheric Data Sets – Part II: Evaluating Radio Occultation and Radiosonde Observations, Global Model Forecasts, and Reanalyses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Therese Rieckh ◽  
Jeremiah P. Sjoberg ◽  
Richard A. Anthes
Keyword(s):  
Radio Occultation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe apply the three-cornered hat (3CH) method to estimate refractivity, bending angle, and specific humidity error variances for a number of data sets widely used in research and/or operations: radiosondes, radio occultation (COSMIC, COSMIC-2), NCEP global forecasts, and nine reanalyses. We use a large number and combinations of data sets to obtain insights into the impact of the error correlations among different data sets that affect 3CH estimates. Error correlations may be caused by actual correlations of errors, representativeness differences, or imperfect co-location of the data sets. We show that the 3CH method discriminates among the data sets and how error statistics of observations compare to state-of-the-art reanalyses and forecasts, as well as reanalyses that do not assimilate satellite data. We explore results for October and November 2006 and 2019 over different latitudinal regions and show error growth of the NCEP forecasts with time. Because of the importance of tropospheric water vapor to weather and climate, we compare error estimates of refractivity for dry and moist atmospheric conditions.

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