scholarly journals Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1145-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Becerril ◽  
Joan Martí ◽  
Stefania Bartolini ◽  
Adelina Geyer
Keyword(s):  
Canary Islands ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract. Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazard at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Becerril ◽  
Joan Martí ◽  
Stefania Bartolini ◽  
Adelina Geyer
Keyword(s):  
Canary Islands ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Historical Times ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract. Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primordial importance for land planning and to define emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. Definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating to the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment neither hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable expected eruptive scenarios.

scholarly journals Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1799-1835 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Becerril ◽  
S. Bartolini ◽  
R. Sobradelo ◽  
J. Martí ◽  
J. M. Morales ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Canary Islands ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
El Hierro ◽  
The Past ◽  
Territorial Planning

Abstract. Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted in the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how), the spatial probability (where) and the temporal probability (when) of an eruption on the island. By studying the past eruptive behavior of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result is the first total qualitative volcanic hazard map of the island.

scholarly journals Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1853-1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Becerril ◽  
S. Bartolini ◽  
R. Sobradelo ◽  
J. Martí ◽  
J. M. Morales ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Canary Islands ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Lava Flows ◽  
Pyroclastic Density Currents ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
El Hierro ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

scholarly journals Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2355-2377
Author(s):  
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel ◽  
Massimiliano Favalli ◽  
Nicolas Villeneuve ◽  
Andrew J. L. Harris ◽  
Alessandro Fornaciai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lava Flow ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Piton De La Fournaise ◽  
Lava Flow Hazard

Abstract. Piton de la Fournaise, situated on La Réunion island (France), is one of the most active hot spot basaltic shield volcanoes worldwide, experiencing at least two eruptions per year since the establishment of the volcanological observatory in 1979. Eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. About 95 % of some ∼ 250 historical events (since the first confidently dated eruption in 1708) have occurred inside an uninhabited horseshoe-shaped caldera (hereafter referred to as the Enclos), which is open to the ocean on its eastern side. Rarely (12 times since the 18th century), fissures have opened outside of the Enclos, where housing units, population centers, and infrastructure are at risk. In such a situation, lava flow hazard maps are a useful way of visualizing lava flow inundation probabilities over large areas. Here, we present the up-to-date lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise based on (i) vent distribution, (ii) lava flow recurrence times, (iii) statistics of lava flow lengths, and (iv) simulations of lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW stochastic numerical model. The map of the entire volcano highlights the spatial distribution probability of future lava flow invasion for the medium to long term (years to decades). It shows that the most probable location for future lava flow is within the Enclos (where there are areas with up to 12 % probability), a location visited by more than 100 000 visitors every year. Outside of the Enclos, probabilities reach 0.5 % along the active rift zones. Although lava flow hazard occurrence in inhabited areas is deemed to be very low (< 0.1 %), it may be underestimated as our study is only based on post-18th century records and neglects older events. We also provide a series of lava flow hazard maps inside the Enclos, computed on a multi-temporal (i.e., regularly updated) topography. Although hazard distribution remains broadly the same over time, some changes are noticed throughout the analyzed periods due to improved digital elevation model (DEM) resolution, the high frequency of eruptions that constantly modifies the topography, and the lava flow dimensional characteristics and paths. The lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise presented here is reliable and trustworthy for long-term hazard assessment and land use planning and management. Specific hazard maps for short-term hazard assessment (e.g., for responding to volcanic crises) or considering the cycles of activity at the volcano and different event scenarios (i.e., events fed by different combinations of temporally evolving superficial and deep sources) are required for further assessment of affected areas in the future – especially by atypical but potentially extremely hazardous large-volume eruptions. At such an active site, our method supports the need for regular updates of DEMs and associated lava flow hazard maps if we are to be effective in keeping up to date with mitigation of the associated risks.

Probabilistic Tephra Hazard Assessment of Campi Flegrei, Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos ◽  
Manuel Titos ◽  
Laura Sandri ◽  
Sara Barsotti ◽  
Giovanni Macedonio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Numerical Code ◽  
Campi Flegrei ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Short And Long Term

&lt;p&gt;Campi Flegrei is an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under high-traffic air routes. There, the Vesuvius Observatory&amp;#8217;s surveillance system, which continuously monitors volcanic seismicity, soil deformations and gas emissions, highlights some variations in the state of the volcanic activity. It is well known that fragmented magma injected into the atmosphere during an explosive volcanic eruption poses a threat to human lives and air-traffic. For this reason, powerful tools and computational resources to generate extensive and high-resolution hazard maps taking into account a wide spectrum of events, including those of low probability but high impact, are important to provide decision makers with quality information to develop short- and long- term emergency plans. To this end, in the framework of the Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE), we show the potential of HPC in Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment. On the one hand, using the ChEESE's flagship Fall3D numerical code and taking advance of the PRACE-awarded resources at CEA/TGCC-HPC facility in France, we perform thousands of simulations of tephra deposition and airborne ash concentration at different flight levels exploring the natural variability and uncertainty on the eruptive conditions on a 3D-grid covering a 2 km-resolution 2000 km x 2000 km computational domain. On the other hand, we create short- and long-term workflows, by updating current Bayesian-Event-Tree-Analysis-based prototype tools, to make them capable of analyze the large amount of information generated by the Fall3D simulations that finally gives rise to the hazard maps for Campi Flegrei.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1929-1943 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Neri ◽  
G. Le Cozannet ◽  
P. Thierry ◽  
C. Bignami ◽  
J. Ruch
Keyword(s):  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Civil Defence ◽  
Term Data

Abstract. Hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas is complex since much evidence of volcanic and non-volcanic hazards is often hidden by vegetation and alteration. In this paper, we propose a semi-quantitative method based on hazard event tree and multi-hazard map constructions developed in the frame of the FP7 MIAVITA project. We applied this method to the Kanlaon volcano (Philippines), which is characterized by poor geologic and historical records. We combine updated geological (long-term) and historical (short-term) data, building an event tree for the main types of hazardous events at Kanlaon and their potential frequencies. We then propose an updated multi-hazard map for Kanlaon, which may serve as a working base map in the case of future unrest. The obtained results extend the information already contained in previous volcanic hazard maps of Kanlaon, highlighting (i) an extensive, potentially active ~5 km long summit area striking north–south, (ii) new morphological features on the eastern flank of the volcano, prone to receiving volcanic products expanding from the summit, and (iii) important riverbeds that may potentially accumulate devastating mudflows. This preliminary study constitutes a basis that may help local civil defence authorities in making more informed land use planning decisions and in anticipating future risk/hazards at Kanlaon. This multi-hazard mapping method may also be applied to other poorly known active volcanoes.

scholarly journals Current and Foreseen Tungsten Production in Portugal, and the Need of Safeguarding the Access to Relevant Known Resources

Resources ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
António Mateus ◽  
Catarina Lopes ◽  
Luís Martins ◽  
Mário Abel Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Mineral Exploration ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Future Supply ◽  
Joint Interpretation ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Additional Support

The economic and strategic importance of tungsten is widely recognized, but several concerns exist on its stable future supply. Portugal is one of the main tungsten producers in Europe, having generated ≈121 kt of contained tungsten in mineral concentrates from 1910 to 2020, i.e., ≈3.3% of the global production documented for the same time period. Since the early nineties, tungsten mining in Portugal is confined to the Panasqueira deposit which accounts for 79% of the country reserves (≈5.4 kt). However, according to the performed Generalized Verhulst and Richards curve-fitting forecasts, there is a significant future potential for increasing production in Portugal due to the low (<2%) depletion rates of the remaining known tungsten resources (≈141 kt). This projected growth is not necessarily guaranteed, depending on many unpredictable economic, technological, and political factors, besides appropriate social consents. Even so, a prudent land-use planning oriented to long-term needs should avoid the sterilization of the most relevant tungsten resources so far identified in the country. These are resources of “public importance”, as objectively demonstrated with a weighed multi-dimensional (geological, economic, environmental, and social) approach. Safeguarding the access to these resources does not implicate more than ≈6% of the Portugal mainland territory. The joint interpretation of results independently gathered for tungsten production forecasts and for the definition of areas hosting tungsten resources of public importance, provides additional support to political decisions on the urgent need to reconcile mineral exploration surveys and mining with other land uses.

Towards a quantified and global landslide hazard assessment for New-Caledonia (South Pacific) in a regulatory mapping context

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastien Colas ◽  
Yannick Thiery ◽  
Yaël Guyomard ◽  
Mathieu Mengin ◽  
Olivier Monge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Landslide Hazard Assessment

&lt;p&gt;Requiring spatial and temporal quantified information on landslide hazard over a large area is a prerequisite to forecast them. However, in many cases, the quantification remains partial, because of a lack of information on the phenomena, on predisposing and triggering factors or because the scientific approaches used in research domain are complex to apply in a regulatory framework. Thus, in this context, for many sites and end-users, the documents produced by empirical methods are used, without quantification of hazards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2019, a collaboration between the DIMENC Geological Survey Service of New-Caledonia (South-Pacific) and the BRGM planed the development of a global methodology of landslide hazard assessment at the 1:25,000 scale of work according to the recommendations of the JTC-1. Indeed, landslide hazard in New Caledonia is insufficiently assessed and few taken into account in land-use planning. However, this large mountainous island is regularly affected by different type of instabilities (i.e. rock-falls; rock-slides; slides; debris-flows) due to intense rainfalls. The consequences can be material and human, as in 2016 for the municipality of Houa&amp;#239;lou, where debris-flows occurred, inducing 5 deaths, 3 missing persons, 8 injuries along with large material damages. Few heuristic landslide hazard maps based on expert opinion are available, but the methodology is not homogeneous and harmonized. Therefore, even if these maps constitute a solid base of knowledge, their valorization for land use planning remains difficult.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To overcome these shortcomings, the methodology chosen is quantitative, taking into account the susceptibility of the territory (i.e. spatial probability of phenomena occurrence with discrimination of initiation and run-out), the temporal probability of occurrence (i.e. from diachronic analyses) and the phenomena intensity (i.e. through the considered velocity of runout and the potential of induced damages). The methodology is declined by type of phenomena and is based on a comprehensive inventory. Six main steps are defined with:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;An inventory of the events by visual remote sensing and field observations;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Discriminated mapping of bedrock and surficial formations (i.e. regolith: weathered formations and gravitational deposits);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Computation of each landslide initiation susceptibility by a bivariate method;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Integration of the temporal occurrence probability;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Computation of the phenomena runout by a numerical approach taking into account the reach angle;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Integration of the intensity of the phenomena according to the estimated volumes and/or velocity to quantify landslide hazard.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;The classes of spatial and temporal probabilities are based on the JTC-1 agreement and allow obtaining quantified hazard maps. The validation of the results is performed by a field validation, by phenomena not used for the computations, and by statistical tests. The method is tested in the municipality of Mont-Dore (643 km&amp;#178;), which was heavily impacted in 1988 by cyclone 'Anne'. Beyond the fact that the methodology will be applied throughout the territory in an operational framework and will allow the adaptation of local planning, the project allows the improvement of:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Knowledge of the different kind of landslides in a volcano-sedimentary and metamorphic context strongly weathered;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Knowledge of the regolith, which newly integrated for this type of analysis for the island&amp;#8217;s municipalities.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;

Land use planning and overseas production

2021 ◽  
pp. 87-102
Author(s):  
Omid Bozorg-Haddad ◽  
Mohammad-Reza Rajabi ◽  
Hugo A. Loáiciga
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Access To Education ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Land use planning is defined as the regulation of the relationship between space and human activities. Space occupied by human settlements, farmland and forests, parks, fallow land, rivers and lakes, and by transportation networks constitutes a network of areas dedicated to land uses such as agriculture, forestry, rangeland, industry, mining, recreation, and fishing. Land use planning is a comprehensive and long-term approach to planning human relations and their activities in space; it is the task of regulating and coordinating the strategies and general orientations of sectors, and it is the foundation of economies and human activities. The purpose of land use planning is to achieve an optimal distribution of economic and social activities. Land use selection and management are commonly done without regard to the carrying capacity of the land which, when exceeded, results in economic losses and in a reduction of environmental quality. The overall goal of land use planning is to achieve the optimal use of the land within the national interest framework. Accordingly, formulating a successful plan for managing the development of a country requires proper attention to the roles of geography and land use. Creation of a suitable balance between the Earth and its use by human activities can be achieved by proper land management. The increasing importance of environmental issues and human alteration of natural environments calls for sustainable development and land use practices that conserve natural resources while benefiting society and the environment. Nowadays, due to many factors such as climate change, population growth, changing standards of living, poverty, access to education, and mismanagement of natural and water resources, there is a need to diversify food and agricultural production in a variety of ways. Overseas cultivation is one of them, and it has potential for improving agricultural production. The practice of overseas cultivation by a country means planting and harvesting of a variety of agricultural products in other countries to be sold in its domestic market or in foreign markets. There are five basic principles that underline the success of overseas cultivation involving any group of countries: (1) mutual respect for the governance of all countries; (2) making and abiding by agreements between the countries; (3) non-interference in the internal problems of each country and respect for the territorial integrity of all countries; (4) optimal use of human resources and capacities to support agricultural activities and trade; and (5) expanding security and military cooperation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document