scholarly journals Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Th. Plattner
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Affecting Factors ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Risk

Abstract. In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.

scholarly journals Public Perceptions of Contentious Risk: The Case of Rubber Granulate in the Netherlands

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2250
Author(s):  
de Vries ◽  
Claassen ◽  
Mennen ◽  
Timen ◽  
te Wierik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Potential Health ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Public Health Communication ◽  
The Public ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
New Information ◽  
Public Risk

This paper reports on the perceptions of risk related to practicing sports on fields containing rubber granulate infill, and preferences for mitigation measures, among people with and without offspring exposed to rubber granulate. Two repeated surveys were conducted among members of the general population and parents of children aged under 18, in the middle of a dynamic public discussion about the potential health risks of exposure to rubber granulate. The first survey (N = 1033) was administered in December 2016 at a time characterized by considerable public uncertainty and contrasting opinions in the public risk debate. The second survey (N = 782) was conducted in January 2017 after the publication of a risk assessment report, which concluded that practicing sport on fields containing rubber granulate is safe. Multilevel analyses were performed to study changes in perceptions of risk and mitigation preferences in the time between the two surveys, the influence of being familiar with new information following the risk assessment report, and the differences in the perceptions of risk and mitigation preferences between groups with and without offspring exposed to rubber granulate. The results of this study show that, initially, a substantial proportion of the Dutch public perceived practicing sports on fields containing rubber granulate as a potential health threat to children. Over time, after publication of a new risk assessment study stating that practicing sports on fields containing rubber granulate is safe, perceived risk and preferences for mitigation of this risk decreased, especially among those who were familiar with the new information. Parents of children under the age of 18, in particular those with children who were exposed to rubber granulate, were more likely to perceive the risk as higher and to prefer a stricter mitigation policy. These insights may be important to inform public health communication strategies with respect to the timing and tailoring of risk messages to various groups.

scholarly journals Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sättele ◽  
M. Bründl ◽  
D. Straub
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Framework Approach

Abstract. Early warning systems (EWSs) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWSs is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWSs and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWSs is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWSs. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

scholarly journals Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 4479-4526 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sättele ◽  
M. Bründl ◽  
D. Straub
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Framework Approach

Abstract. Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Evaluation of the Public Risk Perception Related to the COVID-19 Health Emergency in Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Motta Zanin ◽  
Eleonora Gentile ◽  
Alessandro Parisi ◽  
Danilo Spasiano
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Risk ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
Perception Of Health

Governments faced with the spread of COVID-19 pandemic are adopting strict and severe mitigation measures to influence people’s behaviors. Public perception of health risk plays a key role in the adoption of these actions, in people’s feelings, and in their daily habits. To support decision makers from international to local levels to face with future sanitary emergencies, this study aims at investigating Italian public perceptions of health risk. To this purpose, a questionnaire was designed and administered within the period of Italian COVID-19 lockdown and quarantine to almost 9000 citizens in Italy and abroad. The obtained results highlight a significative influence that mass media play on both the level of knowledge and the feelings of the respondents. The findings also point out future variations of some perceived behaviors consequent to the COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Identification, Measurement and Reflection of Risks in Accounting

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 01001
Author(s):  
Natalia Chebanova ◽  
Victoria Orlova ◽  
Liliy Revutska ◽  
M. Karpushenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Social Orientation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Legal Provisions ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Warranty Service ◽  
Tax Reserves

In the modern environment, the company constantly faces various types of risks in its business activities. Therefore, the problem of identifying and measuring risks is extremely relevant. The article proposes a scheme for managing financial risks, which includes identifying risk factors, determining the permissible risk level, analyzing individual transactions, developing risk mitigation measures. The article proposes to create the following funds, reserves and collateral: a bad debts reserve, provision for warranty service of clients, provision for social orientation, provision for restructuring, provision for burdensome contracts, fiscal (tax) reserves, commercial, industrial, informational risk reserves, future costs and payments reserve, legal provisions, provisions for impairment of assets, reserve fund. Risks should be taken only if the level of return on risky operations exceeds the level of risk. The issue of the choice of certain reserves, funds and provisions is regulated by the accounting policy of the enterprise, where their types and the order of their creation should be clearly defined. Such measures allow planning contingency expenses and informing users of financial statements of future risk events.

scholarly journals The Relationship of Perceived Value, Perceived Risk, and Level of Trust Towards Green Products of Fast Moving Consumer Goods Purchase Intention

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizka Zulfikar ◽  
Prihatini Ade Mayvita
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Perceived Value ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Green Products ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to investigate how the relation between the perceived value, perceived risk, level of trust and toward green products purchase intention. This study is a survey research using questionnaires as an instrument. Population and sample used in this study is the community of Banjarmasin and taken as many as 150 respondents using non-purposive sampling method. The study found that Banjarmasin’s public tends to be more considered in its functional value indicators than other indicators such as social value, emotional value, and economic value. They also tend to be more considered at time risk indicators than other indicators such as the risk of physical and psychological risks. Banjarmasin’s public tends to be more considered toward its benefits indicators than other indicators such as trust in the object, and trust in attributes. Perceived value and perceived risk affect the level of public confidence but have no effect to the public purchase intention towards green products. The level of trust significantly influences the purchase intention towards green products. The relationship between the public purchase intention towards green products with the perceived value and perceived risk tends to be indirect and moderated by variable levels of trust.

scholarly journals Higher perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic, higher concern for climate change: evidence from a longitudinal study in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanchao Gong ◽  
Yan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Negative Emotions ◽  
Cognitive Resources ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Risk ◽  
Climate Change Concern

Abstract COVID-19 is raging globally taking a huge toll on public health. Although there seems to be a silver lining regarding mitigation of climate change given decreased emission of greenhouse gases during the pandemic, climate disruption actually constantly keeps apace. Therefore, it is important for the public to maintain alert to climate change amid the devastating pandemic. The current longitudinal study made a preliminary exploration of the relationship between public risk perception of the pandemic and climate change and we examined two possibly competing mediators which might lead to opposite effects—negative emotions and limited cognitive resources. The results show that pandemic risk perception has positive predictive effect on climate change concern mediated by negative emotions, but public attention to climate change is not impaired by increased concern for the pandemic. We discuss the value of our results and offer inspiring advice to better address climate change during COVID-19 outbreak.

Key elements to assess proposals for rockfall risk mitigation in the context of a technical and economic feasibility project – the experience of two alpine italian regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Strada ◽  
Davide Bertolo ◽  
Volkmar Mair ◽  
Marco Paganone
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Hazard And Risk

<p>The Valle d'Aosta Region and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano territories include the highest mountain areas of Italy, where most of the communication infrastructures or strategic activities are totally or in part partially exposed to the rockfall hazards.  </p><p>For this reason, the two administrations have established an operational cooperation in order to compare their procedures and to define the criteria and best practices to prioritize and project the mitigation the rockfall mitigation measures. The result achieved by the work group have inspired a new incoming version of the Italian technical standard UNI 11211 “Rockfall protective measures”.   </p><p>As a part of the rockfall risk assessment of the designing the mitigation measures, it is necessary to assess the actual effectiveness of the alternative mitigation options which have been identified.  </p><p>The choice whether to mitigate the event intensity or the expected damage, with either structural or non-structural measures, will usually achieve a risk mitigation level, associated to a complimentary residual risk. </p><p>Therefore, the project management has to evaluate the degree of hazard and risk mitigation for any given solution. The acceptability of the residual risk and its possible mitigation through organizational measures are to be evaluated as well. A long-term cost/benefit analysis has to be performed, taking also into account the tolerability over time of the handling costs. </p><p>The first milestone in the decisional process the definition of the acceptable risk level. As a matter of fact, which is the key criterion supporting the decision to undertake cost-effective investments in mitigation works. For that reason, a preliminary analysis of the in-situ geological conditions should be as complete and detailed as possible. Project managers have to be aware that the zero-option has to be taken in to account as well, in the case the risk level would not be acceptable. </p><p>Moreover, it has to be taken into account that the risk evaluation is always site-specific, because the rockfall mitigation projects have to be based on a detailed geological reference model. Local changes in geological, hydrogeological, morphological and structural conditions, vegetation, vulnerability and exposure of the objects at risk may lead to different hazard and risk conditions even at a local scale. Therefore, a risk assessment analysis is consistent to a single project and can’t be directly upscaled to implement, for instance, a municipal land management plan.   </p><p>Another key point in the decision-making process is the expected damage assessment, which has to include not only the direct damages (e.g.: loss of human lives) but also the indirect damages and their economic and social impacts. As a consequence, in assessing the acceptable risk both the probability of direct and indirect damage and the economic and social benefits derived from its acceptance have to be weighted. </p><p>The final result has led to guidelines based on QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) method and defining three risk levels: Acceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) and Unacceptable, providing to the project managers a rational and objective framework to manage rockfall hazards in Italy. </p>

scholarly journals Avalanche risk assessment – a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 637-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Keiler ◽  
R. Sailer ◽  
P. Jörg ◽  
C. Weber ◽  
S. Fuchs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Construction Plans ◽  
Alpine Environments ◽  
Avalanche Risk

Abstract. Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.

scholarly journals An analysis of COVID-19 economic measures and attitudes: evidence from social media mining

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorota Domalewska
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Online Discussion ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Negative Sentiment

AbstractThis paper explores the public perception of economic measures implemented as a reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland in March–June 2020. A mixed-method approach was used to analyse big data coming from tweets and Facebook posts related to the mitigation measures to provide evidence for longitudinal trends, correlations, theme classification and perception. The online discussion oscillated around political and economic issues. The implementation of the anti-crisis measures triggered a barrage of criticism pointing out the shortcomings and ineffectiveness of the solutions. The revised relief legislation was accompanied by a wide-reaching informative campaign about the relief package, which decreased negative sentiment. The analysis also showed that with regard to online discussion about risk mitigation, social media users are more concerned about short-term economic and social effects rather than long-term effects of the pandemic. The findings have significant implications for the understanding of public sentiment related to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic attitudes and relief support implemented to fight the adverse effects of the pandemic.

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