scholarly journals Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric A. Sproles ◽  
Travis R. Roth ◽  
Anne W. Nolin
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Willamette River ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Social Environmental

Abstract. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013–2014) and 92 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds.

scholarly journals Future Snow? A Spatial-Probabilistic Assessment of the Extraordinarily Low Snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric A. Sproles ◽  
Travis R. Roth ◽  
Anne W. Nolin
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Social Environmental

Abstract. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snowpack during these two winters would compare to snowpacks under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snowpacks of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations), and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations). We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snowpacks under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. April 1 snow water storage corresponds to a 40 % (2013–2014) and 90 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snowpack in a non-stationary climate, and are readily applicable in other snow dominated watersheds.

Catchment-scale evaluation of pollution potential of urban snow at two residential catchments in southern Finland

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (10) ◽  
pp. 2164-2170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Sillanpää ◽  
Harri Koivusalo
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Road Maintenance ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Small Surface ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Level ◽  
Mass Loads

Despite the crucial role of snow in the hydrological cycle in cold climate conditions, monitoring studies of urban snow quality often lack discussions about the relevance of snow in the catchment-scale runoff management. In this study, measurements of snow quality were conducted at two residential catchments in Espoo, Finland, simultaneously with continuous runoff measurements. The results of the snow quality were used to produce catchment-scale estimates of areal snow mass loads (SML). Based on the results, urbanization reduced areal snow water equivalent but increased pollutant accumulation in snow: SMLs in a medium-density residential catchment were two- to four-fold higher in comparison with a low-density residential catchment. The main sources of pollutants were related to vehicular traffic and road maintenance, but also pet excrement increased concentrations to a high level. Ploughed snow can contain 50% of the areal pollutant mass stored in snow despite its small surface area within a catchment.

Long-term (1900-2100) Hydrometeorological and Snow Water Equivalent reconstructions in the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Mathevet ◽  
Cyril Thébault ◽  
Jérôme Mansons ◽  
Matthieu Le Lay ◽  
Audrey Valery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Snow Line ◽  
Snow Water

<p>The aim of this communication is to present a study on climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow over the 1900-2100 period in a mediteranean and moutainuous area.  It is based on SWE and streamflow observations, past reconstructions (1900-2018) and future GIEC scenarii (up to 2100) of some snow courses and hydrological stations situated within the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc). This has been conducted by EDF (French hydropower company) and Mercantour Natural Parc.</p><p>This issue became particularly important since a decade, especially in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production or impacts on mountainous ecosystems (fauna and flora). As a water resources manager in French mountainuous regions, EDF developed and managed a large hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurements of a hundred of snow courses within the French Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to historical snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow modelization (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2018 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR (20<sup>th</sup> century reanalyses by NOAA) reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii (+4.5 W/m² and + 8.5 W/m² hypotheses). In the scope of this study, Mercantour Natural Parc is particularly interested by snow scenarii in the future and its impacts on their local flora and fauna.</p><p>Considering observations within Durance watershed and Mercantour region, this communication focuses on: (1) long term (1900-2018) analyses of variability and trend of hydrometeorological and snow variables (total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length, streamflow regimes) , (2) long term variability of snow and hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii.</p><p>Comparing old period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2018), quantitative results within these regions roughly shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season duration by 15 days. Characterization of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. Then, this communication focuses on impacts on long-term time scales (2050, 2100). This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts (1) water resources management, (2) snow resorts and artificial snow production developments or (3) ecosystems dynamics.Connected to the evolution of snow seasonality, the impacts on hydrological regime and some streamflow signatures allow to characterize the possible evolution of water resources in this mediteranean and moutianuous region This study allowed to provide some local quantitative scenarii.</p>

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–16 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century, however decreases of 25–80 % in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 13037-13081 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sproles ◽  
A. Nolin ◽  
K. Rittger ◽  
T. Painter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. Globally maritime snow comprises 10% of seasonal snow and is considered highly sensitive to changes in temperature. This study investigates the effect of climate change on maritime mountain snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin (MRB) in the Cascades Mountains of Oregon, USA. Melt water from the MRB's snowpack provides critical water supply for agriculture, ecosystems, and municipalities throughout the region especially in summer when water demand is high. Because maritime snow commonly falls at temperatures close to 0 °C, accumulation of snow versus rainfall is highly sensitive to temperature increases. Analyses of current climate and projected climate change impacts show rising temperatures in the region. To better understand the sensitivity of snow accumulation to increased temperatures, we modeled the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the MRB for the period of 1989–2009 with the SnowModel spatially distributed model. Simulations were evaluated using point-based measurements of SWE, precipitation, and temperature that showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients of 0.83, 0.97, and 0.80, respectively. Spatial accuracy was shown to be 82% using snow cover extent from the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The validated model was used to evaluate the sensitivity of snowpack to projected temperature increases and variability in precipitation, and how changes were expressed in the spatial and temporal distribution of SWE. Results show that a 2 °C increase in temperature would shift peak snowpack 12 days earlier and decrease basin-wide volumetric snow water storage by 56%. Snowpack between the elevations of 1000 and 1800 m is the most sensitive to increases in temperature. Upper elevations were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Temperature increases are the primary driver of diminished snowpack accumulation, however variability in precipitation produce discernible changes in the timing and volumetric storage of snowpack. This regional scale study serves as a case study, providing a modeling framework to better understand the impacts of climate change in similar maritime regions of the world.

scholarly journals Examining cross-scale influences of forcing resolutions in a hillslope-resolving, integrated hydrologic model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Aguayo ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores ◽  
James P. McNamara ◽  
Hans-Peter Marshall ◽  
Jodi Mead
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Integrated Hydrologic Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Water management in semiarid regions of the western United States requires accurate and timely knowledge of runoff generated by snowmelt. This information is used to plan reservoir releases for downstream users and hydrologic models play an important role in estimating the volume of snow stored in mountain watersheds that serve as source waters for downstream reservoirs. Physically based, integrated hydrologic models are used to develop spatiotemporally dynamic estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes based on understanding of the underlying biophysics of hydrologic response. Yet this class of models are associated with many issues that give rise to significant uncertainties in key hydrologic variables of interest like snow water storage and streamflow. Underlying sources of uncertainty include difficulties in parameterizing processes associated with nonlinearities of some processes, as well as from the large variability in the characteristic spatial and temporal scale of atmospheric forcing and land-surface water and energy balance and groundwater processes. Scale issues, in particular, can introduce systematic biases in integrated atmospheric and hydrologic modeling. Reconciling these discrepancies while maintaining computational tractability remains a fundamental challenge in integrated hydrologic modeling. Here we investigate the hydrologic impact of discrepancies between distributed meteorological forcing data exhibiting a range of spatial scales consistent with a variety of numerical weather prediction models when used to force an integrated hydrologic model associated with a corresponding range of spatial resolutions characteristic of distributed hydrologic modeling. To achieve this, we design and conduct a total of twelve numerical modeling experiments that seek to quantify the impact of applied resolution of atmospheric forcings on simulated hillslope-scale hydrologic state variables. The experiments are arranged in such way to assess the impact of four different atmospheric forcing resolutions (i.e., interpolated 30 m, 1 km, 3 km and 9 km) on two hydrologic variables, snow water equivalent and soil water storage, arranged in three hydrologic spatial resolution (i.e., 30 m, 90 m and 250 m). Results show spatial patterns in snow water equivalent driven by atmospheric forcing in hillslope-scale simulations and patterns mostly driven by topographical characteristics (i.e., slope and aspect) on coarser simulations. Similar patterns are observed in soil water storage however, in addition to that, large errors are encountered primarily in riparian areas of the watershed on coarser simulations. The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model is used to develop the environmental forcing variables required as input to the integrated hydrologic model. WRF is an open source, community supported coupled land-atmosphere model capable of capturing spatial scales that permit convection. The integrated hydrologic modeling framework used in this work coincides with the ParFlow open-source surface-subsurface hydrology model. This work has important implications for the use of atmospheric and integrated hydrologic models in remote and ungauged areas. In particular, this work has potential ramifications for the design and development of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) in complex and snow-dominated landscapes. OSSEs are critical in constraining the performance characteristics of Earth-observing satellites.

scholarly journals Snow water scarcity induced by record-breaking warm winter in 2020 in Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Watanabe ◽  
Shunji Kotsuki ◽  
Shinjiro Kanae ◽  
Kenji Tanaka ◽  
Atsushi Higuchi
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study highlights the severity of the low snow water equivalent (SWE) and remarkably high temperatures in 2020 in Japan, where reductions in SWE have significant impacts on society due to its importance for water resources. A continuous 60-year land surface simulation forced by reanalysis data revealed that the low SWE in many river basins in the southern snowy region of mainland Japan are the most severe on record. The impact of the remarkably high temperatures in 2020 on the low SWE was investigated by considering the relationships among SWE, temperature, and precipitation. The main difference between the 2020 case and prior periods of low SWE is the record-breaking high temperatures. Despite the fact that SWE was the lowest in 2020, precipitation was much higher than that in 2019, which was one of the lowest SWE on record pre-2020. The results indicate the possibility that even more serious low-SWE periods will be caused if lower precipitation and higher temperatures occur simultaneously.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2789-2803 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Özdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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